The document discusses trends in leisure behavior and participation. It provides data showing shifts away from formal, structured group activities towards more informal, self-directed individual activities. Physical activity levels are increasing overall but still below targets, and decrease with age. Participation in team sports is declining while creative/cultural activities are growing in popularity. The document analyzes emerging leisure classes and barriers to participation to help recreation organizations better position their services.

1. Foresight
acting on the trends that matter

2. Why do managers pay attention to trends …
Insight to help Early indicators of shifts
position agency in consumer interests
on emerging - marketing
stakeholder
agendas
Identify emerging
best practices Indicators of
Trends impending resource
or supply problems
Identification of
opportunities
Warnings of
shifts in funder
Early alert to priorities/interests
emerging threats
RETHINK (West) Inc.

3. The fundamental reason to pay attention …
every product/service has a life
PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE
expectancy – natural decline in
demand should be expected as
interests and markets change, as the
competition invents alternatives, as our
product becomes stale SUNRISE SUNSET
MATURITY
Phase Phase
demand/
Examples: profitability
buggies to cars, trains to planes
political parties and/or their
platforms
records (3 sizes), tapes (2 sizes),
time
disks, downloads, blueray …
outdoor hockey to indoor arenas Two strategies when decline is anticipated:
rectangular pools to leisure pools • extend the sunset (add value to product)
• replace with an upgraded or new service
designed to deliver the same benefit
RETHINK (West) Inc.

4. Help has arrived – a new resource!
www.foresight-trendscan.blogspot.com
RETHINK (West) Inc.

5. The Trends That Matter
State of the Field
Macro-Trends: the big picture
Emerging Leisure Classes
Shifts in Leisure Behaviour
Recession Leisure Behaviour
Key Tourism Trends
Digital Age Behaviour
Facility Management Trends
Voluntary Sector Trends
Management Trends
RETHINK (West) Inc.

6. State of the Recreation and Parks Field
Loss of Lottery Federal Drop-Out
Funding Recreation Canada
in many provinces Fitness Canada
Provincial
Decline in Devolution
Participation Rates diminished agencies
in many traditional Wake Up and investment
programs/activities across Canada
Calls
Delivery by University
Other Fields Program Cuts
- health, social work, or significant
education, justice demotions
- public works
Loss of Departmental Status
In many municipalities
RETHINK (West) Inc.

7. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Do you share our concern about the general state of the
recreation and parks field?
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Demand that our provincial and territorial recreation and parks
organizations work together to develop and deliver an advocacy
program to strengthen public and government understanding,
commitment and support.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

8. MACRO-TRENDS: the ‘Big Picture’
New Technologies
New Socio-Institutional
Paradigms
Institutional
Old Technologies Inertia
Old Socio-Institutional
Paradigms
Entrepreneurship
New Opportunities
Time
Continuous Discontinuous New Continuous
Change Change Change
adapted from Mike Hollinshead
RETHINK (West) Inc.

9. EMERGING PARADIGMS
Shifting FROM Shifting TOWARDS
industrial values person-centered values
petroleum economy hydrogen economy
industrial economy information economy (smart processes)
metal and plastics polymers, ceramics, composites
machines nanotechnology
chemicals/pharmaceuticals biotechnology and genetic engineering
mass demand/production segmented demand/customized production
western economies dominate emerging economies dominate
local communication virtual global village
Independent computer assisted devices integrated ‘smart’ systems
separation/independence of convergence of information,
microelectronics and telecommunications communication & entertainment technologies
programmed computers artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems
RETHINK (West) Inc.

10. BELIEFS, VALUES, ATTITUDES and BEHAVIOURS
Moving Away FROM Moving TOWARDS
Sacrifice of self Celebration of Self
Independence Interdependence
Consumerism Quality of Life
Local Perspectives Global Perspectives
Anthropocentrism Environmental Stewardship
Judgemental Perceptive
Responsive/Rigid Adaptive/Flexible
Adverse to Risk Calculated Risk Taking
Resisting Change Embracing Change
CHANGING
Day to Day Life
Day to Day Life Government Orientation
Government Orientation
Business Orientation
Business Orientation RETHINK (West) Inc.

11. Managing from ‘the middle’
Politicians
Traditional Emerging
Paradigm Provincial Paradigm
Recreation
•industrial •sustainable,
Municipal person centered
•holding on to Recreation
old materials •new economy
and processes Community •informed and
•limited Recreation interactive
communication •embracing
•resisting change
change
Publics/Stakeholders
RETHINK (West) Inc.

12. KEY QUESTIONS
Is Canadian Society really transitioning from left to
right columns?
Do you personally welcome the transitions
described?
Is leisure the low risk opportunity to ‘try out’ and
model new values and behaviours?
Does your agency understand the transitions
described? Is it committed to a
facilitation/leadership role?
Is there enough critical mass in the right columns
that you as a leisure service manager feel confident
in leading accordingly?
Or, do you simply feel caught in the middle of
opposing camps – unable to please everybody?
RETHINK (West) Inc.

13. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Should the recreation and parks field strategically adopt
and facilitate emerging post-industrial values?
person centred – interdependence/community – quality of life
- green/sustainable - global
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Work with your community/stakeholders to clarify the values
that will guide your services; brand your organization accordingly;
conduct your own value performance audit.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

14. Emerging Leisure Classes
140
120
hours per week
100
80
60
40
20
0
1986 1992 1998 2005
Leisure 1 Leisure 2 Leisure 3 Leisure 4
Leisure 1: entertainment, social activity, sports, hobbies, media, relaxation, gardening, pet care – up 0.10
Leisure 2: 1 plus personal care activities including sleep – down 1.03
Leisure 3: 2 plus child care – up 0.07
Leisure 4: complement of time spent on market and non-market work – down 3.96
Source: McFarlance and Teds, University of Manitoba RETHINK (West) Inc.

15. Leisure and total work time – by age and gender
RETHINK (West) Inc.

16. Shifting Demographics
RETHINK (West) Inc.

17. Canadian Household Spending Patterns
Office of Consumer Affairs – Government of Canada
RETHINK (West) Inc.

18. Trends in Importance of BARRIERS to Participation
Cost of
equipment/ 1981 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
supplies
Fees/Charges 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Too busy with
work 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Too busy with
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
family
Overcrowded 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Facilities
Poorly 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
maintained
facilities 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
No opportunity
near home 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Too busy with
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
other activities
RETHINK (West) Inc.

19. Essential Preconditions to Leisure – Time &/or Money
Time but no money Both time and money
Current Public Sector
Historic Market modest fee for service
Scouting demanding schedules or
YMCA use requirements to justify
membership
Available Discretionary Time
Boys and Girls Clubs
free public recreation
Available Discretionary Income
Current Private Sector
fee for service or membership
positioned for convenience
Neither time nor money Money but(West) Inc.
RETHINK
no time

20. Emerging Leisure Classes – ready market
Golden
Oldies
young seniors
10% Blessed
Ones
Age 55-70
Available Discretionary Time
15%
DINKS
baby boomers
and gen X
Available Discretionary Income
Fastest growing market as baby boom ages.
Canadians over the age of 55 represent 26% of the
population, have 60% of the discretionary spending
power, and 78% of the personal wealth. Does your
organization offer the quality and value they desire?
RETHINK (West) Inc.

21. Emerging Leisure Classes – high demand, low/no profit
Long Term Seniors on
Uninsured Disability CPP/OAS
(only)
Children Living Single Parent
in Poverty Family
Available Discretionary Time
Not working
15%
20%
Unemployed/ Baby
Underemployed Busters
10 – 20% (now 35-43)
Adults 18%
First Nations Living
4% Alone
10.5%
Available Discretionary Income
The most populated quadrant. Does your
organization have an accessibility mandate? RETHINK (West) Inc.

22. Emerging Leisure Classes – challenge to reach
Can your organization be there when this market
has the time and energy? Weekly, scheduled programs
not possible …
Available Discretionary Income
Available Discretionary Time
Self-Employed/
Entrepreneur
Executives
Teenagers
over 50% now
have part time
Working Moms jobs
80% with children
under 13 have FT jobs
RETHINK (West) Inc.

23. Emerging Leisure Classes – the disenfranchised
Limited time/limited funds – does your organization
have any interest?
Available Discretionary Time
Available Discretionary Income
The
Working
Poor
RETHINK (West) Inc.

24. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Is your organization optimally positioned on the discretionary
time/discretionary income matrix?
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Conduct an informal audit of current programs and services
to identify which population cohorts might not have access
due to either time or financial constraints.
Clarify related policies and make service adjustments accordingly.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

25. Shifts in Leisure Behaviour/Patterns
Shifting FROM Shifting TOWARDS
formal, highly structured activities informal, self-scheduled, casual
team sports and activities individual activities
directed programs – teaching self-directed learning
fitness focus holistic wellness
active orientation relatively passive
consumptive activities environmentally-friendly
indoor ‘facility’ focus home and outdoor focus
‘doing something’ ‘experiencing’ – quality/depth
activity as ‘end’ activity as ‘means’
(to bigger ends)
RETHINK (West) Inc.

26. Physical Activity Trends
% adults (20+) meeting minimum requirement – equivalent to ½ hr. walking daily
70
60
50
Canada
40
Alberta
Saskatchewan
30
BC
20
10
0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2005
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute

27. Men more active than women
% adults (20+) meeting minimum requirement – equivalent to ½ hr. walking daily
60
50
40
All adults
30 Men
Women
20
10
0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute

28. PA increasing for all ages – levels decrease with age
% adults (20+) meeting minimum requirement – equivalent to ½ hr. walking daily
70
60
50
aged 20-24
40
aged 25-44
aged 45-64
30
aged 65+
20
10
0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Canadian Fitness and Lifestyle Research Institute

29. Physical Activity for children and youth
Indicator 2005/2006 2007/2008 2015 target
% children meeting physical activity
guidelines – 90 minutes per day 9% 13% 20%
Mean number of steps per day
– 2005 to 2008 11,300 12,000 14,500
Boys are more active than girls – by about 10%
Physical activity levels fall off in older age groups
– almost twice as many 5-10 year olds meet minimum
as 15-19 year olds
RETHINK (West) Inc.

30. Activity Trends
Hours per week by Major Activity – Canada, Men
4
3.5
3
All Sport
2.5 Hobbies
Garden/Pet Care
2
Computer Use
1.5 Entertainment
Walk/Run/Hike/Jog
1
0.5
0
1986 1992 1998 2005
RETHINK (West) Inc.
McFarlance and Teds, University of Manitoba - 2007

31. Activity Trends
Hours per week by Major Activity – Canada, Women
3.5
3
2.5 All Sport
Hobbies
2
Garden/Pet Care
Computer Use
1.5
Entertainment
1 Walk/Run/Hike/Jog
0.5
0
1986 1992 1998 2005
RETHINK (West) Inc.
McFarlance and Teds, University of Manitoba - 2007

32. Child Sport Participation - Canada
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Canadian Social Trends, Statistics Canada – 2008

33. What’s happening in Alberta – Team/Group Sports
% Household Participation
40
35 Bowling/Lawn Bowling
Soccer
30
Ice Hockey
25 Basketball
Softball/Bseball
20
Volleyball
15 Curling
Football
10
Rugby
5 Ringette
0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Alberta Recreation Survey

34. What’s happening in Alberta – Creative/Cultural
% Household Participation
80
70 Attending a fair/festival
60 Craft/Creative Hobby
50
Visit museum/art
gallery
40
Attending Live Theatre
30
Taking part in the arts
20
Dancing
10
0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Alberta Recreation Survey

35. What’s happening in Alberta – Outdoor High Impact
% Household Participation
60
50
Overnight Camping
40 Fishing
ATV/Off Road
30 Horseback/Trail Riding
Hunting
20 Motorized Trail Biking
Moto-cross
10
0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Alberta Recreation Survey

36. What’s happening in Alberta – Outdoor Low Impact
% Household Participation
45
40
35
30
Day Hiking
25 Birdwatching
20 Mountain Climbing
Orienteering
15
10
5
0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Alberta Recreation Survey

37. What’s happening in Alberta – Home Based
% Household Participation
100
90
80
Walking for Pleasure
70
60 Gardening
50
Crafts/Hobbies
40
30 Video/Electronic
Games
20
10
0
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Alberta Recreation Survey

38. Canada – visitation to selected parks/venues
% adults visiting at least once in previous 12 months
60
50 conservation
area/natural park
40
zoos, aqaurims,
botanical gardens,
30
planetariums,
observatories
20 historic sites
10
0
1992 1998 2005
RETHINK (West) Inc.
General Social Survey - Canada

39. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Has your organization found the optimal balance between
investment in/support for fitness, sport, arts/culture, and
outdoor recreation.
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Consciously shift your investment portfolio to increase attention
to growth markets (fitness, arts/culture, outdoors, home based)
and take a more cautious approach to declining markets (sport).
Review policies related to priority age cohorts to address needs,
opportunities and challenges relating to an aging society.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

40. Canadian Recreation Spending Patterns
Average annual household expenditure ($) – 1982 to 1999
800
Event Admission
700
Recreational Fees
600
Home recreation
500 equipment
Home entertainment
400 equipment
Athletic Equipment
300
200 RV/camping
100 Cablevision
0 Package Trips
1982 1999
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Francis Kremarik, Canadian Social Trends (2002)

41. Gaming now bigger than music or movies …
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Arstechnica.com/gaming/news

42. Massive investment in hardware ensures future …
Value of purchases ($ billion)
40
35
30
25
video game hardware
20
video game software
15
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007
RETHINK (West) Inc.
www.slideshare.net/EhOs/video-game-industry-trends

43. Gaming – a balanced and aging market
% new gamers % established gamers
Age Group (under 2 years) (over 2 years)
45 - 54 20 17
35 - 44 20 20
25 - 34 27 22
18 - 24 16 19
12 - 17 17 22
RETHINK (West) Inc.
www.scribd.com/doc/16938922/Gaming-Trends-2009

44. Gaming Trends
Broader Demographic
Virtual Worlds
Next Generation Social Gaming
Mobile Gaming
Physical Activity through gaming (Wii, Natal)
From Consumers to Contributors
RETHINK (West) Inc.

45. Recession Leisure – cementing trends already in place
Less – voluntary simplicity
Observers are More time at home
seeing a
consistent pattern Investing in your own
in how we are ‘entertainment assets’
home entertainment electronics
adapting our
fitness equipment and related digital
leisure in a instruction
recession Board games increasing in declining
environment toy market
… and predicting a Socializing online
permanent Valuing experience over
change in commodities
behaviour
The Staycation
RETHINK (West) Inc.

46. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Has your organization begun to strategically develop recreation
opportunities that are less expensive and less dependent on
specialized facilities located at some distance
from the user’s home?
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Develop a portfolio of marketable programs and/or services
that are low cost and utilize readily accessible, multi-use
local facilities.
Develop a series of services that are designed to augment and
complement the trend to home based fitness and recreation.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

47. The Staycation
Why?
People are
high cost of travel – restraint
vacationing at or budgets
near their homes
much more often Concerns about travel safety
and security – health, terrorism,
crime, etc.
… and it is likely a Growing appreciation of the
trend that will take negative cultural and
root and be with environmental impacts of
us for some time. traditional tourism
RETHINK (West) Inc.

48. Add in the trend toward blocks of leisure time …
lots of vacation days logged by older workers
restraint driven trend to 4-Day Week
underemployed and shift to part time work
increased shift work
self-employment and flexibility of working from
home
early retirement – forced by economy
delayed retirement – often part time or project work
RETHINK (West) Inc.

49. Blending recreation and tourism
Implications/Opportunities
The result will
Increased investment in home based
be both a leisure spaces and equipment –
reinforcement outdoor dining, spas, entertainment
of current rooms
trends … Increased popularity of events/festivals
… and a Demand for intensive programs,
blending of workshops, clinics, etc.
recreation and Growing market for any tourism
tourism. enterprise near a major urban centre
Growing market for any recreation
enterprise that wants to reposition
slightly to appeal to the local ‘tourist’
RETHINK (West) Inc.

50. Emerging Tourism Markets
Adventurous baby boomers
Grounded Snowbirds
Adrenalin Seekers
Low Functioners
Inter-Generational Tourists
Gay Travellers
The New Learner
Spiritual Travellers – the New Pilgrims
RETHINK (West) Inc.

51. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Does your organization work closely with the local tourism
industry – recognizing that tourism is simply recreation away
from home and that recreation, sport, arts/culture and parks
agencies generally manage the attractions.
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Develop a collaborative plan to capitalize on the staycation trend.
Partner with the tourism industry to develop assets that straddle
recreation, sport, arts/culture and tourism markets.
Position your organization as a critical component
of the tourism industry.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

52. What if digital age behaviour becomes leisure behaviour?
Immediate Customized
My Digital Age Flexible/
network Behaviour Spontaneous
No fixed
Free
address
Interactive/Participatory
RETHINK (West) Inc.

53. Digital Age Behaviour - implications
get involved with social networking to learn what your
stakeholders want and increase your visibility/findability
retain some facility flexibility to accommodate the
immediate demands that digital consumers will create
connect with (potential) consumers to co-develop leisure
opportunities – share the planning and program
development responsibility
recruit and support the natural leadership that emerges as
social networks focus and create opportunities
Recognize that consumers would prefer to share their
leisure with their existing network than rely on you to
gather/register a bunch of strangers
RETHINK (West) Inc.

54. The Digital Age Leisure Paradigm
Self-identified
Program planned groups
by pros – months
in advance
Doing what they
Strangers want – their
recruited decision
Scheduled by When they want
pros – months in
- often last
advance
minute
At a fixed
location – often in inexpensive
expensive spaces they
find
Leaders
appointed/paid Leaders/volunteers
by agency emerge from within group
RETHINK (West) Inc.

55. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Has your organization made significant strides towards
understanding and working with digital age consumers?
Are you learning the marketing and survival skills already
displayed by leading retailers and service providers.
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Start playing with digital tools.
Create social spaces for your stakeholders and/or link to the spaces
they are now sharing – listen, suggest, participate, work together.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

56. Facility Management – ongoing trends/challenges
• energy management
• waste management
Sustainability • water management
• environmental impact
• disaster preparedness
Risk • workplace health, safety and security
Management • data protection, work continuity
• ongoing budget issues and constraints
Efficiency/ • pressure for cost reduction
Cost Control • balanced by demand for quality service
• largest collection of aging buildings
Aging • deferred maintenance/underfunded PM
Buildings • poor fit with changing demand/new work styles
• new facilities vs. facility reinvestment
• aging workforce
HR Challenges • workforce diversity
• changing/difference work styles
• mobile workforce RETHINK (West) Inc.

57. Facilities – big picture trends/solutions
Link FM to Corporate Strategy
demonstrate brand and corporate culture
facilities as an effective component of
overall business strategy
Value Driven Design
Facility cost effective, productivity-enhancing spaces
Management flexibility built in – ability to change function
Trends supportive of cutting edge technologies
– Big Picture Integrated Systems
Solutions advanced FM automation systems
Building Information Modeling (BIM)
Integrated Workplace Management Systems (IWMS)
Change Leadership
ability to handle increasing complexity, pace of change
work with tenants/users to change on timely basis
ability to support teams through change processes
RETHINK (West) Inc.

58. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Are your facility management tools and processes up to date?
Smart/integrated, green/sustainable, safe/secure, maintenance
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Do your facilities have the flexibility to accommodate shifting demand
patterns?
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Develop and adopt a ‘best practice’ approach to facility management.
Make ‘multi-use’ the default policy in facility design, development
and management.
Conduct an ‘opportunity cost’ assessment
prior to any new capital investment.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

59. Benefits Trends
The Benefits Catalogue has proven that our work and services:
are essential to personal health and well-being
provide the key to balanced human development
provide a foundation for quality of life
reduce self-destructive and anti-social behaviour
build strong families and healthy communities
reduce health care, social service and police/justice costs
are a significant economic generator
and that green spaces are essential to environmental and
ecological wellbeing, even survival.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

60. Health Benefits/Challenges
in general, the % of Canadians who
rate their health as excellent or very
Recreation, active good is decreasing
living, sport, arts,
the trend in killer diseases is up –
culture and parks particularly cancer
are essential to
Diabetes rates are rising dramatically
personal health
Obesity rates are rising at an alarming
– recreation is a key rate
determinant of more teenagers are reporting health
health status. problems
good news for rates of depression and
circulatory disease.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

61. Human Development Benefits/Challenges
in general, public education is
struggling financially and being forced
back to basics
Recreation, active
extra-curricular activities have been
living, sport, arts, on the decline for some time
culture and parks
colleges and universities are shifting
are key to to increased focus on professional
balanced human preparation
development – companies are being forced to cut
helping back on training and development
Canadians reach leisure learning is less common –
for their potential replaced by focus on specific activities
or skill sets
note growth in demand for experiential
learning through travel and tourism.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

62. Quality of Life Benefits/Challenges
The Institute of Well-Being has created a
Canadian Index of Wellbeing (CIW) – a
composite considering:
Standard of living
Recreation, active Our health
Quality of our environment’
living, sport, arts, Education and skill levels
culture, parks and The way we use our time
The vitality of our communities
greenspace are Participation in the democratic process
essential to State of our arts, culture and recreation.
quality of life and Early work looking at 1994-2008 shows
a sense of place. that our GDP is increasing at a much
faster rate than our overall wellbeing or
quality of life.
Public surveys show increasing interest in
and commitment to pursuit of quality of life
RETHINK (West) Inc.

63. Self-Destructive and Anti-Social Behaviour
decline in substance abuse rates
decline in depression rates
Recreation, sport, decline in crime rates – both property
arts and outdoor crime and violent crime
pursuits enhance Canadians are reporting higher levels of
quality of life by perceived personal safety (e.g. walking
alone after dark)
reducing
self-destructive decrease in percentage of Canadians
experiencing discrimination because of
and anti-social ethnicity, race, culture, skin colour,
behaviour religion or language
RETHINK (West) Inc.

64. Strong families and healthy communities
reduction in % of couples with children
increase in % of one-person
Recreation, sport, households and common law living
arts, culture and increase in #/% of latch key children
parks build strong divorce rates steady
individuals, increase in % of Canadians reporting a
families and ‘very strong’ sense of community
healthy belonging
communities. The Institute of Wellbeing reports that
the wellbeing of Canadians as
measured by the quality of their
relationships and community vitality is
improving – based on rates of
voluntarism, providing unpaid care and
assistance, concern about others.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

65. Economic Benefits/Challenges
obvious economic downturn
unemployment and underemployment
Recreation, sport, rates up
arts, culture and some improvement in poverty rates
parks are delayed retirement imperative
significant Tourism (our sister industry)
economic experiencing significant downturn –
generators in security, health and economic issues
your community. Canadians on average are better off –
but income and wealth inequality
increasing
the social safety net continues to fray,
providing less support for the
disadvantaged.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

66. Environmental Benefits/Challenges
increasing public concern about the
environment
% land in protected status increasing
Parks, open spaces,
natural areas and gradual improvements in water and air
pollution levels
green spaces are
essential to loss of biodiversity continues – #
species at risk increasing
environmental
wellbeing and poor international national record re.
climate change, ozone depletion,
ecological energy use, waste management and
survival. pesticide/fertilizer utilization
RETHINK (West) Inc.

67. Pay now (prevention) or pay more later …
Total expenditure, all levels of government - $ millions
120,000
100,000
Recreation/Culture
80,000
Health
Social Services
60,000
Protection
Environment
40,000
Education
20,000
0
1988 2004
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Kitchen and Slack, Trends in Public Finance in Canada

68. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Is your organization committed to improving health,
human development, social/community, economic
and environmental outcomes for the community
it serves.
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Review your policies and plans to position your ability and capacity
to deliver the benefits/outcomes that are important to your community.
Leverage your resources through strategic alliances with health,
social service, education, justice, economic development and
environmental organizations.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

69. Canada’s voluntary sector is in trouble …
facing increasing demand and not meeting it
threatened with ‘mission drift’ - focus on funder priorities
struggling to respond to funder demands for applications,
progress reports, and accountability measures
facing problems recruiting and retaining staff - insecurity
finding it difficult to attract volunteer leaders
having limited success with fundraising and other revenue
has little time for long term planning, effective FD, infrastructure
modernization, or modern management systems
dipping into its reserves to survive ($/HR)
losing volunteer support
RETHINK (West) Inc.

70. Voluntary Sector Indicators - Sport, Recreation, Arts, Culture
Indicator 2004 2007 % change
Volunteer Rate - % adults volunteering
for sports and recreation 11% 11% -
Average Volunteer Hours
– Sports and Recreation
122 119 -2.5%
Average Volunteer Hours
- Arts and Culture
120 107 -5.8%
Donor Rate (% adults)
– sports and recreation 18% 14% -22%
Average donation $45 $58 +28.9%
RETHINK (West) Inc.

71. The New VOLUNTARISM
declining numbers/availability of volunteers
increasing dependence on a few - almost 3/4 of the
volunteer hours come from 1/4 of the volunteers
decreasing commitment - declining interest in long term
roles in favour of short term projects/assignments
diminished interest in taking on leadership roles -
at both operational and governance levels
most sought after volunteer experiences will be
shorter term, personally meaningful, AND
developmental
RETHINK (West) Inc.

72. Community Belonging - Canada
% population over 12 yrs. reporting a ‘very strong’ sense of community belonging
75
70
65 Canada
Alberta
Saskatchewan
60
British Columbia
55
50
2001 2003 2005
RETHINK (West) Inc.
Institute of Wellbeing – ‘How are Canadians really doing?’

73. Key Questions
Are the volunteer organizations that serve
recreation, sport, arts and cultural interests
in your community viable, strong and
thriving?
How are your own volunteer participation
rates doing?
Is an intervention required, before it is too
late for some interest/activity areas and
demand is transferred to local government?
RETHINK (West) Inc.

74. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Is the voluntary sector critical to delivery of recreation, sport,
arts and cultural opportunities in your community?
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Do you feel your organization is doing enough to nurture
and support a vital volunteer support system in your community
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Conduct a consultation on the health of recreation, sport, arts and
cultural groups in your community. Work with community leaders to
develop an appropriate response to significant issues/gaps identified.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

75. CHALLENGES of Modern Management
changing CUSTOMER SERVICE paradigm
shift to OUTCOMES and evidence that results are
being delivered
INFORMED ORGANIZATIONS – others will be
bypassed
The AGE OF UNSTRUCTURE
RETHINK (West) Inc.

76. Changing CUSTOMER SERVICE Paradigm
FROM the old way TOWARDS a new era
in the mail e-mail as we speak
limited hours/availability 24/7
I’ll check with shipping next day guaranteed
in our City/community anywhere in world
this is what we have what do you need - I’ll get it
we know what you need customers define service/product
mass production - few options customized for niche markets
acceptable quality assured quality
planned obsolescence durability
environment costs sustainable/responsible
externalized consumerism
I’ll get a decision for you I’m empowered to make decision
RETHINK (West) Inc.

77. Shift to OUTCOMES/EVIDENCE
FROM ‘service driven’ TOWARDS ‘outcome driven’
goals/objectives outcomes/ends
CEO evaluated on efficiency are outcomes delivered (and
efficiency)
annual reporting of activities, reporting on difference made by
services and budget organization
popular program design evidence-based best practice
performance measurement outcome/results based PM (as
based in inputs, outputs, well as efficiency and
satisfaction satisfaction)
plan, market, budget and hire plan, market, budget and hire on
for programs and services ‘promise to deliver’
‘bottom line’ focus – least open to possibility that best way
expensive way of doing to achieve outcome may require
business additional resources
somewhat alliances/partnerships (given
isolationist/competitive similar outcomes)
RETHINK (West) Inc.

78. The INFORMED ORGANIZATION
linking files to understand optimizing support to decision-
place, person, business, makers through ‘real time’
market reporting
target market segmentation telecommuting to minimize
informing staff team to office requirements and
optimize opportunity and optimize staff QofL
reduce risk/liability computerized learning to keep
linking allied firms to mutual staff at leading edge
advantage - ‘just in time’ virtual corporations to bring in
24/7 production service new expertise
capability, linking time zones networking functional teams to
outsourcing to cheaper share experience, information,
environments fresh ideas
minimizing staff support and handling subtleties of cultural
administrative requirement diversity
RETHINK (West) Inc.

79. Workstyle Shifts
FROM TOWARDS
responsive/rigid adaptive/flexible
dependence on authority independence/autonomy
trained responses/conformity initiative/problem solving
replication creativity
‘stop action’ controls monitoring controls
adverse to risk calculated risk taking
regular scheduled hours flexible work patterns
centralized decentralized
isolated bureaucracy networked cyberocracy
authoritative democratic
managed individuals self-managed teams
departments/units project teams
RETHINK (West) Inc.

80. Key Question – Key Strategy
Question
Is your organization keeping up with the times, considering
contemporary management, organizational development and
customer service practices.
NO 1 2 3 4 5 YES
Strategy
Work collaboratively through ARPA to develop a ‘Service Excellence
Framework’ that defines best practice for the field and supports
organizational audits and improvement.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

81. Possible Trend RESPONSES
ADAPT
ADAPT RESIST
RESIST WAIT
WAIT
• trend is
• trend is
• trend is favourable undesirable
undesirable • monitor and
• trend is favourable • monitor and
• accept/build on the • find ways to
• find ways to discuss implications
• accept/build on the discuss implications
opportunity change or
change or • begin to think
opportunity • begin to think
• adjust – find ways reject the trend
reject the trend about contingency
• adjust – find ways about contingency
to accommodate -- or redirect it
or redirect it plans
to accommodate plans
this new reality to areas of
to areas of • upwardly
this new reality • upwardly
lesser
lesser delegate
delegate
significance
significance responsibility
responsibility
RETHINK (West) Inc.

82. Strategy Overview/Summary
Demand that our provincial and territorial recreation
and parks organizations work together to develop
and deliver an advocacy program to strengthen
public and government understanding, commitment
and support.
Work with your community/stakeholders to clarify
the values that will guide your services; brand your
organization accordingly; conduct your own value
performance audit.
Conduct an informal audit of current programs and
services to identify which population cohorts might
not have access due to either time or financial
constraints. Clarify related policies and make service
adjustments accordingly.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

83. Strategy Overview/Summary
Consciously shift your investment portfolio to
increase attention to growth markets (fitness,
arts/culture, outdoors, home based) and take a more
cautious approach to declining markets (sport).
Review policies related to priority age cohorts to
address needs, opportunities and challenges
relating to an aging society.
Develop a portfolio of marketable programs and/or
services that are low cost and utilize readily
accessible, multi-use local facilities.
Develop a series of services that are designed to
augment and complement the trend to home
based fitness and recreation.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

84. Strategy Overview/Summary
Develop a collaborative plan to capitalize on the
staycation trend.
Partner with the tourism industry to develop
assets that straddle recreation, sport, arts/culture
and tourism markets. Position your organization as a
critical component of the tourism industry.
Start playing with digital tools. Create social spaces
for your stakeholders and/or link to the spaces they
are now sharing – listen, suggest, participate, work
together.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

85. Strategy Overview/Summary
Develop and adopt a ‘best practice’ approach to
facility management.
Make ‘multi-use’ the default policy in facility
design, development and management.
Conduct an ‘opportunity cost’ assessment prior to
any new capital investment.
Review your policies and plans to position your
ability and capacity to deliver the
benefits/outcomes that are important to your
community.
Leverage your resources through strategic
alliances with health, social service, education,
justice, economic development and environmental
organizations.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

86. Strategy Overview/Summary
Conduct a voluntary sector consultation on the
health of recreation, sport, arts and cultural groups
in your community. Work with community leaders to
develop an appropriate response to significant
issues/gaps identified.
Work collaboratively through ARPA to develop a
‘Service Excellence Framework’ that defines best
practice for the field and supports organizational
audits and improvement.
RETHINK (West) Inc.

87. www.foresight-trendscan.blogspot.com
RETHINK (West) Inc.