AFA Annual Meeting 2016

1. Wood Supply Trends in the U.S. South
1995-2015
Dave Tenny
President & CEO
National Alliance of Forest Owners

2. Objective and Scope
Overall: Present factual information on the impact of the
export wood pellet market on American forests and other
forest products industries in the US South.
Three part study:
•Geographic Distribution of Operational and Closed
Wood Fiber Consumers: 1995-2015
•Wood Supply and Pricing Trends: 2000-2014
•Market Case Studies: 2006-2015

3. Study Area

4. Operating and Closed Mills 2015

5. Net Mill Openings and Closures 1995-2015
1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2012 2012-2014 2014-2015
Total
Period
Panelboard: Hardboard and MDF 1 -3 -1 0 0 0 -3
OSB 4 4 -5 -2 3 0 4
Pulp/Paper -3 -7 -3 -1 0 0 -14
Pellet-Operating 0 0 6 1 9 0 16
Pellet-Construction 3
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
NetOpenings/Closings(NumberofFacilities)
1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2012 2012-2014 2014-2015
Total
Period
Panelboard: Hardboard and MDF 1 -3 -1 0 0 0 -3
OSB 4 4 -5 -2 3 0 4
Pulp/Paper -3 -7 -3 -1 0 0 -14
Pellet-Operating 0 0 6 1 9 0 16
Pellet-Construction 3
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
NetOpenings/Closings(NumberofFacilities)
30 Miles 65 Miles 100 Miles 100+ Miles
Operational 18 7 (39%) 18 (100%) 18 (100%) 18 (100%)
Closed 18 8 (44%) 13 (72%) 16 (89%) 18 (100%)
Total Current
Export Pellets
Proximity AnalysisCompetitive
Mill Status 30 Miles 65 Miles 100 Miles 100+ Miles
Operational 18 7 (39%) 18 (100%) 18 (100%) 18 (100%)
Closed 18 8 (44%) 13 (72%) 16 (89%) 18 (100%)
Total Current
Export Pellets
Proximity AnalysisCompetitive
Mill Status

6. Pine Removals - Study Area
Year
US South
Pulpwood Sawtimber Total Pine
Inventory
Non-Pellet Mill
Removals Removals
% of Inventory
Pellet Mill
Removals Removals
% of
Inventory
Inventory Removals Removals
% of
Inventory
Inventory Removals Removals
(million tons) (million tons) (million tons) (million tons)
% of
Inventory
2000 1,007.9 96.6 9.6% 2,009.6 98.2 4.9% 3,017.5 194.9 6.5%
2001 1,013.3 94.6 9.3% 2,023.3 97.4 4.8% 3,036.6 191.9 6.3%
2002 1,025.0 95.9 9.4% 2,057.6 98.0 4.8% 3,082.7 193.9 6.3%
2003 1,032.0 97.2 9.4% 2,084.9 98.7 4.7% 3,116.9 195.9 6.3%
2004 1,050.0 100.2 9.5% 2,136.2 101.7 4.8% 3,186.2 201.8 6.3%
2005 1,054.2 103.1 9.8% 2,189.8 104.6 4.8% 3,244.0 207.7 6.4%
2006 1,060.9 106.9 10.1% 2,233.4 98.2 4.4% 3,294.3 205.2 6.2%
2007 1,076.2 110.7 10.3% 2,264.9 94.9 4.2% 3,341.1 205.6 6.2%
2008 1,083.8 111.8 10.3% 0.1 0.0% 2,295.4 71.2 3.1% 3,379.2 183.1 5.4%
2009 1,086.3 109.0 10.0% 0.3 0.0% 2,333.3 60.6 2.6% 3,419.7 169.8 5.0%
2010 1,090.8 116.6 10.7% 0.6 0.1% 2,398.3 64.3 2.7% 3,489.0 181.4 5.2%
2011 1,110.5 112.8 10.2% 1.7 0.2% 2,477.5 68.3 2.8% 3,588.0 182.8 5.1%
2012 1,129.6 114.9 10.2% 2.4 0.2% 2,563.6 71.1 2.8% 3,693.2 188.4 5.1%
2013 1,159.3 115.9 10.0% 3.3 0.3% 2,665.8 75.8 2.8% 3,825.2 195.1 5.1%
2014 1,178.5 117.7 10.0% 3.7 0.3% 2,772.8 78.1 2.8% 3,951.3 199.5 5.0%
Average 1,077.2 106.9 9.9% 1.7 0.2% 2,300.4 85.4 3.8% 3,377.7 193.1 5.8%
Trendline Growth Rate 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% 94.9% 81.3% 2.3% -3.2% -5.4% 1.9% -0.3% -2.2%

7. Hardwood Removals - Study Area
Year
US South
Pulpwood Sawtimber Total Hardwood
Inventory
Non-Pellet Mill
Removals Removals
% of Inventory
Pellet Mill
Removals Removals
% of
Inventory
Inventory Removals Removals
% of
Inventory
Inventory Removals Removals
(million tons) (million tons) (million tons) (million tons)
% of
Inventory
2000 1,286.1 48.9 3.8% 2,113.6 27.5 1.3% 3,399.7 76.3 2.2%
2001 1,279.0 47.0 3.7% 2,120.8 27.7 1.3% 3,399.8 74.7 2.2%
2002 1,270.8 43.4 3.4% 2,130.0 28.2 1.3% 3,400.8 71.6 2.1%
2003 1,255.3 39.8 3.2% 2,139.8 28.7 1.3% 3,395.1 68.5 2.0%
2004 1,252.3 40.9 3.3% 2,154.9 28.5 1.3% 3,407.1 69.4 2.0%
2005 1,238.2 42.0 3.4% 2,161.7 28.3 1.3% 3,399.9 70.3 2.1%
2006 1,232.4 40.9 3.3% 2,181.7 26.8 1.2% 3,414.1 67.7 2.0%
2007 1,234.8 39.4 3.2% 2,213.1 25.2 1.1% 3,447.8 64.6 1.9%
2008 1,229.3 38.1 3.1% 2,414.6 20.8 0.9% 3,643.9 58.9 1.6%
2009 1,229.7 34.1 2.8% 2,431.8 16.5 0.7% 3,661.5 50.6 1.4%
2010 1,227.5 36.1 2.9% 0.0 0.0% 2,433.1 16.4 0.7% 3,660.6 52.6 1.4%
2011 1,230.8 34.7 2.8% 0.0 0.0% 2,438.6 16.4 0.7% 3,669.4 51.1 1.4%
2012 1,224.4 34.6 2.8% 0.5 0.0% 2,431.5 16.3 0.7% 3,655.9 51.5 1.4%
2013 1,218.1 33.8 2.8% 1.3 0.1% 2,429.8 15.3 0.6% 3,647.9 50.4 1.4%
2014 1,219.9 33.6 2.8% 2.4 0.2% 2,445.6 14.8 0.6% 3,665.4 50.8 1.4%
Average 1,241.9 39.2 3.1% 0.8 0.1% 2,282.7 22.5 1.0% 3,524.6 61.9 1.8%
Trendline Growth Rate -0.4% -2.6% -2.2% 117.7% 118.0% 1.3% -5.5% -6.8% 0.7% -3.4% -4.2%

8. Total Removals - Study Area
Year
US South
Pulpwood Sawtimber Total Pine and Hardwood
Inventory
Non-Pellet Mill
Removals Removals
% of Inventory
Pellet Mill
Removals Removals
% of
Inventory
Inventory Removals Removals
% of
Inventory
Inventory Removals Removals
(million tons) (million tons) (million tons) (million tons)
% of
Inventory
2000 2,294.0 145.5 6.3% 4,123.3 125.7 3.0% 6,417.3 271.2 4.2%
2001 2,292.3 141.6 6.2% 4,144.1 125.0 3.0% 6,436.4 266.6 4.1%
2002 2,295.8 139.3 6.1% 4,187.7 126.2 3.0% 6,483.5 265.5 4.1%
2003 2,287.3 137.0 6.0% 4,224.7 127.4 3.0% 6,512.0 264.4 4.1%
2004 2,302.3 141.1 6.1% 4,291.1 130.2 3.0% 6,593.4 271.2 4.1%
2005 2,292.4 145.2 6.3% 4,351.5 132.9 3.1% 6,643.9 278.1 4.2%
2006 2,293.3 147.8 6.4% 4,415.1 125.0 2.8% 6,708.4 272.8 4.1%
2007 2,310.9 150.0 6.5% 4,478.0 120.1 2.7% 6,788.9 270.2 4.0%
2008 2,313.1 149.9 6.5% 0.1 0.0% 4,709.9 92.0 2.0% 7,023.1 242.0 3.4%
2009 2,316.0 143.1 6.2% 0.3 0.0% 4,765.1 77.1 1.6% 7,081.1 220.4 3.1%
2010 2,318.2 152.7 6.6% 0.6 0.0% 4,831.4 80.7 1.7% 7,149.7 234.0 3.3%
2011 2,341.3 147.5 6.3% 1.8 0.1% 4,916.1 84.7 1.7% 7,257.4 233.9 3.2%
2012 2,354.0 149.6 6.4% 2.9 0.1% 4,995.0 87.5 1.8% 7,349.1 239.9 3.3%
2013 2,377.5 149.7 6.3% 4.6 0.2% 5,095.6 91.1 1.8% 7,473.1 245.4 3.3%
2014 2,398.4 151.3 6.3% 6.0 0.3% 5,218.4 92.9 1.8% 7,616.7 250.2 3.3%
Average 2,319.1 146.1 6.3% 2.3 0.1% 4,583.1 107.9 2.4% 6,902.3 255.1 3.7%
Trendline Growth Rate 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 91.1% 87.2% 1.8% -3.6% -5.4% 1.3% -1.1% -2.4%

9. Study Area Market Dynamics – Pine
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pulpwood/ResidualPrice($/ton)
PulpwoodRemovals/ResidualSupply
(milliontons)
Pellet Removals Non-Pellet Removals Residual Supply Deficit
Residual Supply Pulpwood Stumpage Price Residual FOB Sawmill Price
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pulpwood/ResidualPrice($/ton)
PulpwoodRemovals/ResidualSupply
(milliontons)
Pellet Removals Non-Pellet Removals Residual Supply Deficit
Residual Supply Pulpwood Stumpage Price Residual FOB Sawmill Price

10. Study Area Market Dynamics – Hardwood
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pulpwood/ResidualPrice($/ton)
PulpwoodRemovals/ResidualSupply
(milliontons)
Pellet Removals Non-Pellet Removals Residual Supply Deficit
Residual Supply Pulpwood Stumpage Price Residual FOB Sawmill Price
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pulpwood/ResidualPrice($/ton)
PulpwoodRemovals/ResidualSupply
(milliontons)
Pellet Removals Non-Pellet Removals Residual Supply Deficit
Residual Supply Pulpwood Stumpage Price Residual FOB Sawmill Price

11. Significant Findings
Residual supply 2007-2014:
•21% less than the supply between 2000 and 2006
•Pine/hardwood residual prices increased 12.5% and 10.7%
Pine pulpwood consumption and price 2008-2014:
•Non-pellet demand increased by 5.8 mm tons (from 111.8 to 117.7 mm tons)
•Pellet demand increased by 3.7 mm tons (from 0 to 3.7 mm tons)
•Sawtimber inventory increased significantly more than pulpwood
•US South average pulpwood prices increased 4.5% annually
•Similar price trends in areas with and without export pellet influence
Hardwood pulpwood consumption and price 2010-2014:
•Non-pellet demand decreased by 2.5 mm tons (from 36.1 to 33.6 mm tons)
•Pellet mill demand has increased by 2.4 mm tons (from 0 to 2.4 mm tons)
•Sawtimber inventory increased and pulpwood inventory declined
•US South average pulpwood prices increased 7.4% annually
•Similar price trends in areas with and without export pellet influence

12. EU Export Pellet Outlook
• 2014 – 3.6 mm metric tons (40% market share)
• Near-term growth – 7.4 mm metric tons (from
existing installed capacity)
• Additional demand – 3.4 mm metric tons (40%
market share)
• Total capacity – 10-11 mm metric tons (7 new mills)
• Total Removals – .6% of pulpwood inventory

13. Case Study – Coastal Georgia

14. Coastal Georgia – Removals and Prices
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
PulpwoodRemovalsas%ofInventory
StumpagePrice($/ton)
Annual Precipitation (Indexed) Pulpwood Removals as % of Inventory
Pine Pulpwood Stumpage Avg Precipitation
Trendline (9.6% Annual Growth rate)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
PulpwoodRemovalsas%ofInventory
StumpagePrice($/ton)
Annual Precipitation (Indexed) Pulpwood Removals as % of Inventory
Pine Pulpwood Stumpage Avg Precipitation
Trendline (9.6% Annual Growth rate)

15. Coastal Georgia – Micromarkets Comparison (2010-15)
10%
11%11%
9%
6%
3%
4%
2%
10%
5%
8%
-3%
1%
0%
-3%
-11%
-8%
1%
9%
11%
8%
-9%
-4%
-2%
-6%
9%
4%
-3%
4%
-1%
-7%
1%
5%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
CaseStudy3
Area#2
Area#3
Area#4
Area#5
Area#6
Area#7
Area#8
Area#9
Area#10
Area#11
Area#12
Area#13
Area#14
Area#15
Area#16
Area#17
Area#18
Area#19
Area#20
Area#22
Area#23
Area#24
Area#25
Area#26
Area#27
Area#28
Area#29
Area#30
Area#31
Area#35
Area#36
Area#37
TrendlineAnnualGrowthRate
Case Study 3 Non-Pellet Area
Pellet Influenced Area (All Years) Pellet Influenced Area (Partial Years)
10%
11%11%
9%
6%
3%
4%
2%
10%
5%
8%
-3%
1%
0%
-3%
-11%
-8%
1%
9%
11%
8%
-9%
-4%
-2%
-6%
9%
4%
-3%
4%
-1%
-7%
1%
5%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
CaseStudy3
Area#2
Area#3
Area#4
Area#5
Area#6
Area#7
Area#8
Area#9
Area#10
Area#11
Area#12
Area#13
Area#14
Area#15
Area#16
Area#17
Area#18
Area#19
Area#20
Area#22
Area#23
Area#24
Area#25
Area#26
Area#27
Area#28
Area#29
Area#30
Area#31
Area#35
Area#36
Area#37
TrendlineAnnualGrowthRate
Case Study 3 Non-Pellet Area
Pellet Influenced Area (All Years) Pellet Influenced Area (Partial Years)

16. Key Takeaways
• Southern forests are sustainable
• The marketplace is experiencing a post-recession
inventory and residual supply correction
• Several factors (e.g. inventory and residual correction,
increased post-recession demand, pellets, weather)
have affected pulpwood removals and prices
• Price trends are similar in areas with and without pellets
• Pellets will have a relatively minor impact on overall
wood supply and prices but may have more significant
localized impacts