1. Southern Timber Market Trends
Emerging Markets
Arkansas Forestry Association
Little Rock
September 26, 2012
Thomas G. Harris, Jr., Sara Baldwin, Jonathan Smith &
Robert Simmons
TimberMart-South 1

2. TimberMart-South
Center for Forest Business
D.B. Warnell School of Forest Resources
The University of Georgia
Thomas G. Harris, Jr. , Sara Baldwin, Jonathan
Smith & Robert Simmons
TimberMart-South 2

3. Objectives
• Review Recent Timber Market Trends
• Examine New Market Opportunities
• Strategies for the New Market
• Finish on Time

4. Forestry Market Trends
Structural Change
• Globalization of Forestry Commerce
• Industry Disintegration
• Timberland Ownership Change
• TIMOS, REITS and other new owners
• Declining Paper Markets
• Solid wood products Capacity increases
• Bioenergy
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5. Forested Regions of the World
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6. Where Does the Wood Go?
Total Roundwood Use for US South
Total 6.7 billion cubic feet
* Total fuelwood is any roundwood product, with or with out bark, used to generate
heat at a manufacturing facility or to produce heat for residential settings.
The South’s Timber Industry-An Assesement of Timber Product Output and Use, 2009

7. Where Does the Wood Go?
Softwood Use in US South
Total 4.96 billion cubic feet
The South’s Timber Industry-An Assesement of Timber Product Output and Use,

8. Where Does the Wood Go?
Hardwood Use in US South
Total 1.78 billion cubic feet
The South’s Timber Industry-An Assesement of Timber Product Output and Use,

9. U.S. Timberland Inventory
net volume of growing stock by county
Source: US Forest Service
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10. U.S. Timberland Production
roundwood volume harvested by county
Source: US Forest Service
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11. South’s Timber Industry
Primary wood-using mills
Source: US Forest Service
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12. South’s Timber Industry
Legend
Primary wood-using mills
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13. TimberMart-South 13

14. U. S. South Annual Average Pine &
Hardwood Sawtimber Stumpage
Prices
Pine sawtimber $23.97 (2011) from a low of $4.10 per ton 1960
to a peak of $40.46 per ton in 1998
Source: U.S. Forest Service &
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Timber Mart-South

15. South-wide Average Pine Stumpage
Annual Average Real Prices in 1982 US$/Ton
Sources: Timber Mart-South,
U.S. Forest Service & U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics TimberMart-South 15

16. U. S. South Annual Average
Pulpwood Stumpage Prices
Source: U.S. Forest Service
& Timber Mart-South TimberMart-South 16

17. U. S. South Lumber Production
Source: U.S. Forest Service, U.S.
Census, and Random Lengths
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Yardstick

18. U. S. Wood Pulp Production
Sources: Pulp & Paper
International and American Pulp &
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Paper Association (AF&PA)

19. U. S. South Total Pulpwood
Production
Source: US Forest Service , Forisk & CFB
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20. Annual Housing Starts:
1980 through 2011, est. 2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Single
Family + Multifamily Starts)
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21. Monthly Housing Starts:
January 2006 through June 2012
US Total & US South
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Single
Family + Multifamily Starts)
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22. US South Housing Starts
vs. Pine Sawtimber Stumpage
1976 to 2011, 2012 ytd
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Single
Family + Multifamily Starts)
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23. Paper & Paperboard Production
January 2006 through June 2012
Source: AF&PA
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24. NBSK Pulp Prices
Monthly January 2006 through July 2012
Sources: FOEX Ltd
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25. Remodeling Expenditures
(LIRA)1996 through present
(3Q 12 through1Q 13 predicted)
Source: Harvard University
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26. Southern Pine Lumber Production
Annual 1950 through 2011, 2012 est.
Sources: Southern Forest Products Association
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27. Southern Saw Mill Capacity &
Number of Mills
Source: USDA & TMS estimates,
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28. Southern Pulp Mill Capacity &
Number of Mills
Source: USDA & TMS estimates,
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29. US South Fuel Wood Pellet Mills
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30. US South Fuel Wood Pellet Mills
• 29 Operating wood fuel pellet
manufacturing facilities.
• At least one in each state
• Capacity is about 3.2 million tons of
pellets
• Conversion is about 2 tons of green wood
per ton of pellets.
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31. Top Pellet Producers
• Top 3 mills have about half the total
capacity – 1.6 million tons per year
– Georgia Biomass, Waycross GA
– Green Circle Bio, Cottondale FL
– Enviva, Ahoskie NC
• 5 Mills at 120,000 - 150,000 tpy
• 21 Mills at 6,000 - 90,000 tpy

32. Proposed Wood Fuel Pellet Projects
• 15 new facilities proposed in last 12
months
– 5 in 3rd Quarter
– All in Georgia or South Carolina
• 6.0 million tpy announced capacity
• 12 million tpy increased wood demand

33. Proposed Wood Fuel Pellet Projects
• 6 proposed for 2012 startup, largest
– Enviva, Northampton NC - 440,000 tpy
– Westervelt, Aliceville AL - 310,000 tpy
– Fram, Lumber City GA - 138,000 tpy
• 5 proposed for 2013 startup
– German Pellets, Woodville TX - 550,000 tpy
– Franklin Pellets, Franklin VA - 500,000 tpy
– Enviva, Courtland VA - 500,000 tpy
– Point Bioenergy, Baton Rouge LA - 440,000 tpy
– Zilkha Biomass, Selma AL 440,000 tpy (former
Dixie Pellets)

34. Operating & Proposed Pellet Mills
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35. Proposed Pellet Mills
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36. US South Wood Biomass to Electric
Power Facilities
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37. US South Wood Biomass to Electric
Power Facilities
• 15 Operating wood biomass to electric
power facilities.
• At least one in 9 of 11 states in the South
• Capacity is about 600 Megawatts of power
• Average output 40 Megawatts
• Conversion is about 10,000 tons of green
wood per Megawatt.
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38. Proposed Wood Biomass to Electric
Power Facilities
• 17 Active projects announced in the last 12
months for 2012-2013 startup
• 780 Megawatts of power output
• 3 Proposed for 2012 startup
– Piedmont Green Power, Barnesville GA - 50 MW
– Green Power Solutions, Dublin GA 50 MW
– WGS Energy, Twiggs County GA 35 MW
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39. Operating & Proposed Wood Biomass
to Electric Power Facilities
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40. Proposed Wood Biomass to Electric
Power Facilities
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41. The South’s Pulp Mills as Potential
Biomass to Power Facilities
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42. The South’s Pulp Mills as Potential
Biomass to Electric Power Facilities
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43. Wood Fuel Pellet & Pine
Pulpwood Prices
TMS & RISI

44. Proposed Biomass to Liquid Fuel
Facilities
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45. Proposed Biomass to Liquid Fuel
Facilities
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46. Wood Energy Market
Future
• ?????
• Negatives
– Policy Driven
– Weak economics
• Positives
– Renewable
– “Green”
– Wood is Good

47. Southern Pine Planting
by ownership type
Source: Georgia Forestry Commission & 11 southeastern states plus OK & KY
Smurfit-Stone Container * Est. some states 2005-2008
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48. Management Strategies
• Emphasis Markets and Timing
• New Sales Approaches
– Landowner & Logger coordination
– Longer term arrangements?
• Keep growth rates up

49. Southern Timber Trends
Final
Questions
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50. Southern Timber Trends
Sources
• FRA 2000 www.FAO.com
• SFRA www.srs.fs.fed.us/sustain/
• Wood Markets 2002
• North American Pulp and Paper Factbook
• Pulp and Paper International
• USDA Forest Service
• Wood Resources International
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51. Southern Timber Trends
Sources (cont.)
• Forest Resources Association
• APA Engineered Wood Association
• Random Lengths
• US Department of Commerce
• US Census Bureau
• US Federal Reserve
• AF & PA
• SFPA
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