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Now Next Beyond v2: Making Sense of Change

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Social Media Trends 2014
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Now Next Beyond v2: Making Sense of Change

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Now, Next, Beyond is our take on how to make sense of changes in the media landscape, including new technologies, trends in consumer behaviour or demography, and our understanding of how marketing works.

We take a short, medium and long-term view to quantify how and when key developments in the industry are going to impact what customers - and therefore brands - do.

Now, Next, Beyond is our take on how to make sense of changes in the media landscape, including new technologies, trends in consumer behaviour or demography, and our understanding of how marketing works.

We take a short, medium and long-term view to quantify how and when key developments in the industry are going to impact what customers - and therefore brands - do.

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Now Next Beyond v2: Making Sense of Change

  1. 1. Now, Next, Beyond Version #2 January 2015 Mark Holden, Head of Futures @holdenmw
  2. 2. Why have we done this? To make practical sense of change: • Understand it. • Prioritise based on likely impact to marketing & communication. • Technology is a driver, but it’s not all about technology. • The ‘future’ is not static.
  3. 3. This is not futurology – the next wave is already here Internet: 50 years Mobile: 30 years Social: 10 years
  4. 4. Even if it’s in front of us, change can happen quickly 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Technology adoption rates over the last 100 years (reaching 25% adoption)
  5. 5. In the last year…
  6. 6. Now, Next, Beyond Now Next 12 months Critical now Next Next 24 months A rising tide Beyond Within 5 years Clouds on the horizon Monitor, experiment, planPrepareAct now Impact
  7. 7. Now, Next, Beyond Rise of connected TV Marketing personalisation Integrated commerce The mobile majority Content as media Multidevice world Digitisation of media Data driving media Co-creation & customisation Internet of useful things Predictive design Money 2.0 Attention deficit The generation gap Privacy value exchange Social goes mobile The power of the ‘1st screen’ Modern families What recovery? TV - generational tipping point Murdered by modernity Demographic reckoning Confronting climate change The marketing-media system New paths to growth The real value of social Meaningful marketing Explicit and implicit Now Next Beyond Tech Behaviour Practice
  8. 8. Now
  9. 9. TECHNOLOGY
  10. 10. THE MOBILE MAJORITY
  11. 11. The mobile majority 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 1/1/2019 1/1/2020 Smartphone Tablet Source: Arena Media forecast (aggregate of penetration data) August 2015 – the point at which smartphones exceed UK broadband penetration
  12. 12. The OS platform ‘war’ is arguably over Android iOS Windows Other September 2013 September 2014 Source: Kantar Worldpanel ComTech September 2014
  13. 13. Whilst the hardware sector is commoditising
  14. 14. We’re moving beyond the ‘landgrab’ into brand services ‘Landgrab’ Enhance products & services Mobile-friendly touchpoints Apps Media integration Commerce New services App-like experiences Location Mobile CRM
  15. 15. We’re moving beyond the ‘landgrab’ into brand services ‘Landgrab’ Enhance products & services
  16. 16. The big change is how we use (and design) apps Source: Nielsen July 2014; IPA Touchpoints 5 ’We’re reaching an app ‘threshold Two thirds of mobile time is still spent in apps
  17. 17. App-like experiences are likely to embedded more seamlessly into the OS experience Source: Nielsen July 2014; IPA Touchpoints 5 App experiences directly from notifications’ Card-based design
  18. 18. MULTI-DEVICE WORLD
  19. 19. Multi-device world Every household in the UK has an average of 4 connected devices: 83% have 2 device or more 66% have 3 devices or more 46% have 4 devices or more 29% have 5 devices or more 1 2 1 2 2 1 Source: IPA Touchpoints 5 2014 *Internet connected devices: Internet-enabled TV, fixed PC, laptop, tablet, mobile phone, games console Device* type in numbers
  20. 20. The PC remains the workhorse for e-commerce Source: Global Web Index Q2 2014
  21. 21. But all devices have an influencing role to play in user journeys to varying degrees
  22. 22. But all devices have an influencing role to play in user journeys to varying degrees
  23. 23. However, there’s a post-PC world on the horizon Source: Ofcom Children’s and Parent’s Media Usage and Attitudes Report 2014
  24. 24. Getting equipped for the post-PC world Universal analytics Responsive Design for comparative advantage Tablet isn’t an afterthought
  25. 25. CONTENT AS MEDIA
  26. 26. Content as media We’ve seen an acceleration of ‘content as advertising’ in the last year
  27. 27. A fast widening of ‘native’ platforms Direct Response Brand Rich media Editorial
  28. 28. Content is now the ad ‘substance’ of many digital platforms
  29. 29. 5 key developments Partnerships Content distribution Platform investment Influencers Power of video
  30. 30. This requires a shift in emphasis
  31. 31. ‘Let’s make… - Social media stories - Articles - A blog - How-to videos - A programme - A game - Photography - An experience - A stunt video - A product guide - A documentary - A book - With influencers etc. ‘Let’s make some content!’ We need to get specific vs.
  32. 32. And make choices: why and what we produce HMG Content Lens Topics Tone of voice Brand platform Monday 10th November Monday 17th November Wednesday 26th November REACTIVE Idea Idea Idea Idea How it works How it works How it works How it works Content pillar Content pillar Content pillar Content pillar SEO integration SEO integration SEO integration SEO integration Destination platforms Destination platforms Destination platforms Destination platforms KPI's KPI's KPI's KPI's Distribution Distribution Distribution Distribution Content planning & scheduling
  33. 33. Content can work 62% want to see content directly from their favourite brands 27% want to see branded articles on important issues 90% of consumers find content useful 78% believe brands providing custom content are interested in building good relationships with them Source: CMO Council – The Content ROI Centre 2014
  34. 34. It requires a good framework for measuring ROI Awareness Purchase Emotional Rational Entertain e.g. interactions, sentiment, dwell time Inspire e.g. search uplift, participation Educate e.g. purchase intent, brand consideration, CRO Convince e.g. sales, leads, recommendations, SEO
  35. 35. It requires a good framework for measuring ROI Awareness Purchase Emotional Rational Entertain e.g. interactions, sentiment, dwell time Inspire e.g. search uplift, participation, Educate e.g. purchase intent, brand positioning Convince e.g. sales, leads, recommendations, SEO
  36. 36. DIGITISATION OF MEDIA
  37. 37. Digitisation of media Sources: Posterscope 2013; Future Source Consulting; BBC News; Ofcom Communications Market Report 2014 59% of UK digital inventory to be traded programmatically by 2017 196,000 digital outdoor screens in the UK; only 4% of ads on them make use of live content Programmatic extending to ‘traditional’ media
  38. 38. Digitisation of media Sources: Posterscope 2013; Future Source Consulting; BBC News; Ofcom Communications Market Report 2014 The World Cup saw more people sharing in real-time than any other event in history Dynamic creative is possible across all media types now Smart TV’s account for 45% of all new TV sales
  39. 39. Digital is not a ‘channel’
  40. 40. It’s not just about campaigns, it’s about service design too
  41. 41. DATA DRIVING MEDIA
  42. 42. Data capabilities are developing at pace 1st party 2nd party 3rd party Understanding & managing experiences with one view of the customer Fusing customer datasets to fuel new targeting strategies Enrich insight and targeting with supplementary data
  43. 43. BEHAVIOUR
  44. 44. SOCIAL GOES MOBILE
  45. 45. Social goes mobile Facebook 60% Youtube 36% Twitter 34% Instragram 20% Google+ 18% Active usage 16-30’s in the UK
  46. 46. 16-24’s Instant messaging platforms are accelerating this 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Facebook Messenger Kakao Talk Kik Messenger Line Skype Snapchat Vibe WeChat WhatsApp 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Facebook Messenger Kakao Talk Kik Messenger Line Skype Snapchat Viber WeCha WhatsApp Everyone
  47. 47. IM is set to overtake social networking on mobile
  48. 48. The UK’s major players are not all brand-friendly…yet
  49. 49. But there are opportunities to experiment now Tactical messages Brand stickers Customer service Superfan IM groups
  50. 50. Social on mobile creates new opportunities Reactive moments More seamless UGC Impulse buying
  51. 51. POWER OF THE 1ST SCREEN
  52. 52. Power of the ‘1st screen’ 76% 24% MeshingStacking *Millward Brown Ad Reaction 2014; 15-44 multiscreen users
  53. 53. Most dual-screening is unconnected to what’s happening on screen *Millward Brown Ad Reaction 2014; 15-44 multiscreen users
  54. 54. Though TV clearly does drive social media conversation Source: Kantar, A year in the life of TV & Twitter in the UK, 2014
  55. 55. And may even help to make programming a little more popular Source: Kantar, A year in the life of TV & Twitter in the UK, 2014
  56. 56. Even infamous examples struggle to achieve the reach that broadcast ads do 15,885 retweets 6,483 favourites 20,000 likes 108m watched 5.1m tweeted 44,500 ‘engaged’ 0.008% of active tweeters A team of 13
  57. 57. Big TV events are creating a 2nd screen scrum
  58. 58. There are ways to design 2nd screen experiences that scale Partners Amplified content
  59. 59. There are ways to design 2nd screen experiences that scale Enhanced experiences Be as good as the 1st screen
  60. 60. MODERN FAMILIES
  61. 61. The modern family unit is in flux Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics Fewer people getting married Women having kids later
  62. 62. New kinds of household structures emerging Source: Brand Futures Family of the Future 2014
  63. 63. 18% 16% 16% 45% 27% 25% 70% 12% 74% 76% 32% 48% 71% 73% 27% 64% Parenting Children's education Clothing for children Buying a vehicle Parenting Children's education Clothing for children Buying a vehicle Male Female I have final/primary say Share decision-making equally Families ≠ mums Source: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/global-trends-survey-gender-divide-tables.pdf
  64. 64. More brands are representing (and celebrating) diversity
  65. 65. Some are even making it their campaign idea
  66. 66. WHAT RECOVERY?
  67. 67. Consumer confidence remains negative despite the recovery
  68. 68. Disposable income just isn’t what it used to be 1/3rd of the UK workforce are part- time (the highest since 1992) Source: Manpower Quarterly Jobs Survey; Institute for Public Policy Research August 2014; Office for National Statistics Youth unemployment still high at 18% Earnings < inflation from 2008 - 2013
  69. 69. Something Aldi and Lidl have very cleverly exploited
  70. 70. Trading down and value-shopping behaviours are deeply ingrained Source: Mintel The Post-Recession Consumer 2014
  71. 71. Creating both challenge & opportunity Source: Mintel The Post-Recession Consumer 2014 Switched-on consumers Unprecedented access to comparison information Intense brand competition + + Groceries Mid-range cars Music industry DVD’s Alcohol at home High street travel ‘Traditional’ banking Premium-casual fashion Property aggregators Value retail Consumer tech Fast food Coffee shops Gaming Cinema TV-viewing Film-streaming Fast fashion
  72. 72. PRACTICE
  73. 73. THE REAL VALUE OF SOCIAL
  74. 74. Source: Social Flow August 2014 ‘Organic social’ is in decline on Facebook and Twitter
  75. 75. ‘Organic social’ is in decline Source: Convince and Convert March 2014
  76. 76. Social media platforms have changed: they are very different entities now Analytics, advertising & identity Developer platformConsumer tech
  77. 77. The good news: we have more viable choices than ever
  78. 78. It’s clear that social doesn’t build brands on its own – but can reinforce brand equity Source: Peter Field / WARC ‘Seriously Social’ 2014
  79. 79. In many ways we need to get back to fundamentals Source: Peter Field / WARC ‘Seriously Social’ 2014
  80. 80. MEANINGFUL MARKETING
  81. 81. People expect brands to tangibly enhance their lives Today’s paradigm Most people would not care if 73% of brands disappeared Less than 20% of brands notably improve our quality of life Source: HMG Meaningful Brands 2014
  82. 82. There are opportunities to make a difference Brands work hard at improving our quality of life and well-being % AGREE 2013 I generally trust brands They communicate honestly about their commitments and promises Brands can play a role in improving my quality of life and well-being 40% 32% 46% 53% 24% 32% 49% 20% Source: HMG Meaningful Brands 2014
  83. 83. And being meaningful is commercially beneficial HM MEANINGFUL BRANDS Index’13 STOXX 1800 FTSE4 Good Index x 120% x 175% MB Index considers top 25 meaningful global brands (from companies operating in the stock market) Source: HMG Meaningful Brands 2013 – based on top 25 meaningful brands globally
  84. 84. Being meaningful involves driving a blend of benefits for end users Placed fairly in the market Makes a difference to my life Makes a difference to society Listens & cares Good quality Fair price Innovative products Category leader Emotional (happier, express identity) Organisational (make life easier) Financial (savings) Intellectual (ideas/skills, smart) Physical (health, fitter) Social (connecting) Natural (reuse, recycle) Gov & Ethics (ethical, transparent, sustainability leader) Environment (enabler) Economy (local economy / jobs) Community (socially committed) Workplace (employees)
  85. 85. Getting the blend right can create meaningful differentiation Source: HMG Meaningful Brands 2013. Scores derived from structured equation modelling and consumer responses Importance in driving meaningfulness in finance (max 1) Howeffectiveisthecategoryis againstthekeyfactors?(outof 7)
  86. 86. EXPLICIT AND IMPLICIT
  87. 87. Decision-making is driven by the interplay between explicit and implicit processing Source: Admap; Researching implicit memory: Get to the truth; 2013
  88. 88. Which has a number of key implications for marketing planning ‘Emotional’ and ‘rational’ are not mutually exclusive Blending motivational and rational drivers is most effective Different channels have a natural skew on the cognitive spectrum ‘Emotion’ needs to be focused – connecting with category motivations
  89. 89. Communications should be designed with the right blend of ‘implicit’ and ‘explicit’ drivers in mind Source: Innerscope; Dr Carl Marci: How to create better connections by understanding the brain
  90. 90. This reinforces brand-response as a best practice model for marketing Source: IPA Databank; The Long & Short Of It: Balancing Short-term and Long-term Marketing Strategies
  91. 91. And leads to a new insight toolkit which examines customer intent against behaviour Perceptual insight Behavioural insight+ Industry surveys Segmentation Focus groups & interviews Brand tracking Implicit reaction testing Passive data Pre-testing Propensity modelling AB testing & observation Facial recognition META-ANALYSIS
  92. 92. Next
  93. 93. TECHNOLOGY
  94. 94. RISE OF CONNECTED TV
  95. 95. Connected TV user experiences are improving 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 1/1/2019 1/1/2020 Smartphone Tablet Smart TV
  96. 96. And a growing number of entry points – both an opportunity & challenge
  97. 97. Many household’s will have multiple entry points into connected TV experiences 1. Device-syncing 2. Smart TV apps 3. Consoles and set- top boxes Rights-holders, broadcasters and software services
  98. 98. Opportunities to trial brand experiences now New formats & providers Apps: relatively uncluttered Content hubs
  99. 99. INTEGRATED COMMERCE
  100. 100. Not e-commerce vs. store – retail channels overlap and blur across customer journeys
  101. 101. Physical and digital experiences reinforce each other
  102. 102. Multichannel customers are more valuable Source: Tesco, Winning in the New Era of Retail, 2014
  103. 103. Store visits are already a significant part of e-commerce Sources: Redsock Multichannel Retail 2013; IMRG ** of eligible General Merchandise sales (i.e. excluding food and impossible items like washing machines and sofas) * John Lewis state that 34% of John Lewis sales are collected in Waitrose Stores! So actually their figure is probably higher in total. Click-and-collect was offered at 97 Waitrose's and 35 John Lewis's On average 10% of all UK online transactions collected in store
  104. 104. Key omnichannel challenges Data infrastructure – universal analytics framework Quantifying online-to-offline and offline-to-online App-based CRM strategies Enabling seamless (and non-invasive) personalisation
  105. 105. BEHAVIOUR
  106. 106. ATTENTION DEFICIT
  107. 107. As digital media has grown we are spending more time with media overall
  108. 108. But this abundance has the effect of making attention scarce
  109. 109. This is amplified by media platform switching
  110. 110. Clarity & consistency is now a differentiator
  111. 111. Clarity & consistency is now a differentiator
  112. 112. GENERATION GAP
  113. 113. Generation gap
  114. 114. Generation gap Over 50’s control 80% of Britain’s wealth People aged between 50 and 74 spend twice as much as the under-30s on cinema tickets Between 2000 and 2010 restaurant spending 65- 74’s increased 33% vs. 18% less for under 30’s Source: The Economist, Demography, 27th Sept 2014
  115. 115. We need to re-think our stereotypes about 50+ groups vs.
  116. 116. Over 50’s feel stereotyped and/or ignored by marketing 66% feel that most advertising is aimed at 16-to-34 year olds Source: High50 / Research Now, The 50+ Project 2014 95% feel that Apple and Samsung don’t target them at all (21% couldn’t live without a smartphone; 57% really enjoy having a smartphone)
  117. 117. Young people are becoming more prudent, less hedonistic
  118. 118. At the same their category needs & expectations are shifting
  119. 119. PRIVACY VALUE EXCHANGE
  120. 120. Users are increasingly aware of good (and bad) use of their data
  121. 121. And some are taking control On average 9.26% of impressions are ad-blocked, rising up to 17.7% for tech sites There are 5m estimated VPN users in the UK Sources: Global Web Index 2014 & ClarityRay 2013
  122. 122. Nonetheless, many users understand there is a value exchange 84% of 18-34’s are comfortable sharing personal data with businesses via social logins if there is a decent value exchange 59% of all users are willing to share personal data for brands if they make it clear what it will be used for Source: Gigya, 2014
  123. 123. Good user experience should underpin data collection & application Intelligent retargeting Give users control & explain the benefits of data-sharing ‘Be as smart as puppy’ – only collect what you need to make UX work
  124. 124. PRACTICE
  125. 125. MARKETING MEDIA SYSTEM
  126. 126. Data & connected media capabilities will lead to system marketing RELEVANCE GRANULARITY INTEGRATION ACCELERATION Behavior-based Purchased-based Segments Personalized Individual-level, Scoring Simultaneously dealing with all Paid Owned Earned touchpoints Agility Real-Time Consumers’ Interests
  127. 127. This will go beyond the current digital channels
  128. 128. NEW PATHS TO GROWTH
  129. 129. 1. Competitive brands hardly differ in loyalty levels. 2. Their difference in size is due to the difference in their user bases. 3. Reach, penetration and saliency strategies are more effective than loyalty-driving strategies. Physical + mental availability Does the received wisdom about brand growth apply in the digital world?
  130. 130. Digital customers exhibit greater affinity Domino’s Pizza Online mean score Offline mean score Is a brand I love 7.4 6.9 Brand advocacy 7.2 6.6 Brand consideration 7.5 7.0 Domino’s Pizza Online Offline They communicate with me a lot 21% 13% Source: Arena Media Brand Growth Research 2014
  131. 131. And can significantly alter category norms Source: Arena Media Brand Growth Research 2014 % Average books bought Physical books – (Amazon) 54% 5.1 Physical books – (Retail) 49% 4.9 E-books – (Amazon) 34% 8.7 Average 6.2 Average number of bets placed in last 3 months Website Store/person App Average 8.2 6.9 8.9 Average amount bet in last 3 months Website Store/person App Average £81.21 £82.16 £111.70
  132. 132. A new kind of availability Virtual availability
  133. 133. New paths to growth Growth ‘from below’ Growth ‘from above’
  134. 134. New paths to growth Crowdsourcing Freemium Growth-hacking Digital footprint CRM Member-get-member Network effects ‘Earned’ media Partner marketing Effective SOV Salience Brand extensions & launches ‘Upper funnel’ marketing Direct response Brand comms Content distribution
  135. 135. This can apply even in ‘traditional’ categories Amounteachpersoniswillingtopay Source: Nicholas Lovell, The Curve
  136. 136. Beyond
  137. 137. TECHNOLOGY
  138. 138. CO-CREATION & CUSTOMISATION
  139. 139. ‘Kickstarting’ is getting into popular culture
  140. 140. Its not just technology & entertainment
  141. 141. Its not just technology & entertainment
  142. 142. Its not just technology & entertainment
  143. 143. Its not just technology & entertainment
  144. 144. There have been a few brand experiments, but remains a relatively untapped area
  145. 145. Technologies also developing to enable product mass- customisation
  146. 146. As one-off brand initiatives
  147. 147. Or to customers en masse
  148. 148. INTERNET OF USEFUL THINGS
  149. 149. The Internet of Things is top of Gartner’s peak of inflated expectations
  150. 150. IoT hype isn’t matching reality 33% of people who purchased a wearable in the past year either do not use them any more or use them infrequently 75% of people are aware of wearables technologies 10% are interested in using them Sources: TNS September 2014; PwC The Wearable Future October 2014
  151. 151. Single-purpose devices are likely to do better Most desirable products (by intent to purchase) 1. Fitbit 2. GoPro 3. Google Glass 4. Pebble 5. Nike Fuelband 6. Jawbone 7. VivoFit 8. iWatch Source: Brandwatch July 2014
  152. 152. IoT will be much wider than wearable tech
  153. 153. In-car and in-home are arguably more promising areas
  154. 154. Brands are starting to experiment – service design is a bigger opportunity than advertising
  155. 155. Voice is a key area to start developing for right now
  156. 156. And there are opportunities to leverage immersive experiences and devices Virtual reality demonstrations Interactive retail technology AR apps
  157. 157. PREDICTIVE DESIGN
  158. 158. Predictive design: the ‘5th stage’ of technology 1. Hardware 2. Software and OS 4. Data 3. Sensors 5. Prediction
  159. 159. Predictive design: the ‘5th stage’ of technology
  160. 160. Predictive design: the ‘5th stage’ of technology
  161. 161. Which will shape next generation responsive design Interactive screens Voice “V-commerce” Connected living room
  162. 162. And OS-based services across
  163. 163. Designing services for new interfaces Where is the customer and what are they doing? Serving their need at that point Context Service Device OS, screen size, gesture, voice Design Designing quick, intuitive user experiences Outcome Transact, prime a transaction, reward, entertain
  164. 164. MONEY 2.0
  165. 165. Mobile interactions have increased 13x from 2009 - 2014 Mobile is starting to change the way we pay and manage money
  166. 166. Mobile is starting to change the way we pay and manage money +100% +10% +300% From 45m in 2013 to 90m in 2014 10% monthly growth in payments in 2014 Payments to grow from 14m in 2013 to 44m in 2014 Over 10million contactless card journeys, to roll out across the TFL network in 2014
  167. 167. Despite some consolidation it remains a fragmented space for end users
  168. 168. Relative penetration is still low
  169. 169. Security remains a concern for many
  170. 170. There will be further consolidation – and a few early ‘winning’ candidates Backed by high street banks 1m registered users in 3 months Rolling out in waves across participating banks 1m cards activated within 72 hours Already bigger than all contactless competitors 156m registered users to migrate into mobile services An established intermediary Has reach (and revenue) to consolidate Peer-to-peer Payments End-to-end
  171. 171. Beyond payments, banking and currency disruptions are on the horizon ‘Mobile-first’ banking propositions have started to arrive
  172. 172. Beyond payments, banking and currency disruptions are on the horizon “Crypto currencies are inevitable, once we figure out regulation and how to keep our digital wallets safe in the future.” - Eric Schmidt Despite it’s volatility, there is still an active market in Bitcoin. If regulated and made friendly for end users, virtual currency could be a significant change in banking practice & money transfer.
  173. 173. BEHAVIOUR
  174. 174. TV VIEWING: GENERATIONAL TIPPING POINT
  175. 175. At the moment the vast majority of our viewing is still on linear TV Average daily viewing: 3:55 88% watched live 0:03 daily average across phones, tablets & laptops 1.5% of total TV viewing on connected devices Source: BARB / Thinkbox 2013 average
  176. 176. But the recession has softened the start of a clear shift
  177. 177. But the recession has softened the start of a clear shift
  178. 178. Generational media differences are stark
  179. 179. We are seeing the start of a fundamental change A screen in every room Living room ‘cinema screen’ + ‘satellite’ connected screens
  180. 180. MURDERED BY MODERNITY
  181. 181. Murdered by modernity “The Murdered by Modernity mindset is bound to gain greater prominence in the years ahead. But this is not a trend that will necessarily cause contradictory feelings. We might like to complain about our always-on lifestyles and our inability to escape from technology, but we will also enjoy our ability to find information instantly with a click or a swipe and each new innovation will be welcomed with considerable enthusiasm.” - Richard Nicholls, Future Foundation
  182. 182. People are increasingly feeling the need to switch off 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total Male Female 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ AB C1 C2 DE 2010 2012 2014 “The stresses of modern life mean that people are less happy than they used to be” “Sometimes I feel the need to get away from phone calls, emails and text messages and switch off” | % agree or agree strongly Baby boomers 58% Gen Y 60% Gen X 65% 60% Source: nVision Research | Base: 2,200 - 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013
  183. 183. We are starting to build a set of normative behaviours around use of technology
  184. 184. And brands are intervening
  185. 185. Brands can help people save time & minimise digital clutter Less is more Quality over quantity Save time, not dwell time Good old fashioned effective frequency
  186. 186. DEMOGRAPHIC RECKONING
  187. 187. We’ll see 2m growth amongst 65+ by 2020 Source: ONS / nVision | Base: UK
  188. 188. An ageing population will have consequences for productivity and fiscal health In developed economies we have hit a demographic ‘sweet spot’ optimal to economic growth – the point at which a high proportion of working age people support a small pool of dependants. We are now emerging out that ‘sweet spot’ into a more challenging period.
  189. 189. This is already starting to materialise Source: Joseph Rowntree Foundation 2014
  190. 190. Life trajectories are changing - it’s become harder to define customers by age alone Sources: Source: ONS/nVision | Base: England and Wales, 2013; Labour Force Survey, ONS/nVision | Base : Individuals aged 20-34, UK
  191. 191. This will have significant consequences Parents & workers for longer Dependants for longer Drive discretionary spending Squeezed discretionary spending Spending more on care Spending more on pensions Younger for longer ‘Older’ earlier
  192. 192. CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE
  193. 193. People have been more worried about money than the environment
  194. 194. But that is starting to change
  195. 195. Genuine sustainability will be a competitive advantage The Global 100: World Leaders in Clean Capitalism 50% of Millennials think that in the future, more than any other sector of society, business will achieve the greatest impact on solving society's biggest challenges
  196. 196. This may require brands & businesses to change how they operate Services vs. products Sacrificing for sustainability
  197. 197. Now, Next, Beyond Rise of connected TV Marketing personalisation Integrated commerce The mobile majority Content as media Multidevice world Digitisation of media Data driving media Co-creation & customisation Internet of useful things Predictive design Money 2.0 Attention deficit The generation gap Privacy value exchange Social goes mobile The power of the ‘1st screen’ Modern families What recovery? TV - generational tipping point Murdered by modernity Demographic reckoning Confronting climate change The marketing-media system New paths to growth The real value of social Meaningful marketing Explicit and implicit Now Next Beyond Tech Behaviour Practice
  198. 198. Want to hear more? mark.holden@arenamedia.com @holdenmw

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