Now, Next, Beyond is our take on how to make sense of changes in the media landscape, including new technologies, trends in consumer behaviour or demography, and our understanding of how marketing works.

1. Now, Next, Beyond
Version #1
Mark Holden, Head of Futures
@holdenmw

2. Why have we done this?
To make practical sense of change:
• Understand it.
• Prioritise based on likely impact to marketing & communication.
• Technology is a driver, but it’s not all about technology.
• The ‘future’ is not static. This is version 1.

3. 2 important things first
1. Technology and behaviour are 2 sides of the same coin.

4. 2 important things first
2. This is not futurology. The next wave is already here.
Internet: 50 years old Mobile: 30 years old Social: 10 years old

5. Now, Next, Beyond
Now
Next 12 months
Critical now
Next
Next 24 months
A rising tide
Beyond
Within 5 years
Clouds on the horizon
Act now Prepare
Monitor, experiment,
plan
Impact

6. Why this framework? Technologies don’t disrupt evenly.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute

7. Now, Next, Beyond
Mobile in the customer journey
Beyond mobile
The (re)awakening of content
Internet of media
Multiscreen behaviour
The post-nuclear age
Recession on our minds
Getting real about social
More utility, less noise
Explicit and implicit thinking
TV+
4G & The Cloud
Context comes of age
Retail as experience
Integrated data
Attention deficit
Redefinition of youth
Play
Measuring behaviour
Live media systems
Meaningful marketing
Co-creation gets mainstream
NFC comes of age
Internet of Things
Fragmentation of social
Augmented life
Murdered by modernity
The demographic crunch
Eco returns
Now Next Beyond
Tech
People
Thinking

8. Now

9. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: TECHNOLOGY

10. TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey
Source: Arena Media forecast (aggregate of penetration data)
Smartphone at 80%
penetration by Dec 2014 –
as high as fixed line
broadband

11. TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey
Outside of search, mobile
advertising will take time to
mature – right now owned &
earned mobile experiences
are critical

12. TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey
Source: Google; Mobile In-Store Research: How in-store shoppers are using mobile devices; 2013
So you have an optimised site? Good. Now plan mobile experiences across
the whole customer journey.

13. TECHNOLOGY: Mobile across the customer journey
Discovery Transaction Experience
Post-purchase /
loyalty
Mobile has a role to play at each stage across paid-owned-earned – mobile
strategies should be defined across this rather than simply sites & apps

14. TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile
Source: Arena Media forecast (aggregate of penetration data)
Tablet at 40% penetration
by Dec 2014 – only likely to
reach mobile levels by the
end of the decade
Note: this is personal
ownership. Household
penetration is at 40% now.

15. TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile
51%
Tablet usage
with TV
35%
Mobile
usage with
TV
33%
Laptop /
desktop
usage with
TV
Source: IAB Three Device Lives: Tablets in context / IAB Mojo Study
Tablet,
49%
Mobile,
22%
PC,
29%
Which of your devices best
allows you to be entertained?
2:56
2:12
2nd screen Entertainment Shopping

16. TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile
Tablets are primarily media consumption devices, often
in-home. Different behaviour from mobile, which
requires a disctinct approach to user
experience, content & media planning.

17. TECHNOLOGY: Beyond mobile
eBooks have made self-publishing viable. Fifty Shades of Grey started as a
self-publish and is now the best selling UK book of all time. It’s time for the
right brands to think about publishing, a relatively untapped space.

18. TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content
Easier to make & distribute
content. But hard to get and
keep attention.

19. TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content
Awareness Purchase
Implicit
Explicit
Entertain
Educate Convince
Inspire

20. TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content
Celeb
Endorse
Case
Studies
Guides
Reviews
Events
Quizzes
Games
Apps
Videos
RatingsArticles
Webinars
Stunts
PR
Viral
video
eNews
Demo
videos
Reports
w/papers
Info-
graphics
Comps
Digital
Mags
Podcast
INSPIRE
CONVINCE
ENTERTAIN
EDUCATE
Content is
potentially many
different activities,
of varying
complexity &
impact. We need
to get specific.

21. TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content
Plan to be spontaneous. Doing it well isn’t easy – requires integrated
teams, new working practices and a ‘generous’ creative platform. And a clear
strategy for when, why and how to go ‘real-time’.

22. TECHNOLOGY: The (re)awakening of content
Thinking about
content has
practical
implications too:
‘brand’ digital
advertising is
moving towards
content-led, native
formats & away
from reliance on
conventional
formats

23. Technology: Internet of Media
Source: GfK consumer survey, July 2012 among a sample of 500 internet users in the UK
SAAI = slightly above average income consumers
All ‘traditional’ media
is now connected.
The long-heralded
vision of media
convergence is
becoming a clear
reality.

24. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of Media
New opportunities for applications, content
delivery, advertising, targeting & measurement. Start bringing
digital thinking & behaviour into the ‘traditional’ media
world, making it more dynamic, live, responsive.
90% of TV’s sold in 2014 forecast to be Internet-
enabled
196,000 digital outdoor screens in the UK; only
4% of ads on them make use of reactive, live
content
Sources: Posterscope 2013; Future Source Consulting

25. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: PEOPLE

26. PEOPLE: Multiscreen behaviour
Multiscreening is the
new norm for many.
The ubiquity of wifi
and growing number
of computing devices
means we
increasingly switch
attention between
devices,
simultaneously. It’s
how we’ve
domesticated
technology into the
household.

27. PEOPLE: Multiscreen behaviour
Multiscreening is a behaviour, not a
platform. 2nd screen strategies
should start with insight &
outcome, then technology.

28. PEOPLE: The post-nuclear age
16% of the UK believe
that they fit the ‘traditional’ family
model
Sources: „Family: Helping To Understand The Modern British Family‟ – Centre for the Modern Family;
Half the population believes society
has an outdated view of the family
58% increase in the number of stay
at home dads between 1993 and
2008
“The two-parent, male-breadwinner family is basically extinct.”
- Spencer Thomson, IPPR
55% of the UK don’t think that
their family set-up is portrayed
positively in advertising

29. PEOPLE: The post-nuclear age
Beware the assumption that
only mums are parents and
default to ‘housewives’ as
parents. There are
opportunities for brands who
embrace & reflect
modern, complex family life.

30. PEOPLE: The post-nuclear age
3 broad family forms now:
1. Families with money
More orthdox. First child in their 30‟s.
Married. Mums and dads working.
2. Blue collar workers.
Only 44% married. Children out of
wedlock. Mothers are bread-winners.
3. Foreign fusion
More traditional. 75% children born in
marriage (vs. 46% for Britons). Foreign-
born women make up 25% of new births
in Britain.
Source: The Post-Nuclear Age; The Economist, March 2013

31. PEOPLE: Recession on our minds
Source: NIESR

32. PEOPLE: Recession on our minds
Unemployment in Spain is 27%
vs. 8% in the UK
Stock markets & indexes have
recently hit global highs
RBS & Lloyds profitable again
Consumers re-balancing their
spending
Economic news is political
Recession is about perception – but perception matters. Value, thrift &
comparison have become a part of our culture.

33. 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Actual Forecast
Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 face-to-face/online respondents aged 16+, GB
PEOPLE: Recession on our minds
“Which of the following, if any, have you done on the internet in the last 6
months? Compared/looked up prices for any product or service / used
a price comparison web site.
This is fueled by digital comparison & money management
services – we expect to be able to ‘deal hunt’ & compare.

34. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: THINKING

35. THINKING: Getting real about social

36. THINKING: Getting real about social
FROM: TO:
Platform, then strategy Strategy, then platform
Social media = Facebook
Many platforms, each with a
comparative advantage
Vanity goals e.g. Likes Realistic business goals
Social ‘replaces’ TV Social complements TV
A new channel to manage Customers to manage

37. THINKING: More utility, less noise

38. THINKING: Explicit and implicit
Short term behavioural
responses
Long term brand
preferences
System 2
System 1
Implicit band
associations
Rational, explicit
product &
pricing messages
Sources: The Long and Short of it : Binet and Field; Decoded: The Science Behind Why We Buy : Barden
“If we think of products as
serving explicit goals, and of
brands as serving implicit
goals, then there is no
problem in creating a value
proposition that weaves
together explicit and implicit
goal levels.”
- Phil Barden, Decoded

39. THINKING: Explicit and implicit
This applies to media
choices too – some are
better at building implicit
associations, and some at
delivering against explicit
goals. Make complimentary
media choices in comms
strategy.
Source: Innerscope; Dr Carl Marci: How to create better connections by understanding the brain

40. 10 things to do NOW
1. Build mobile strategy across your
customer journey
2. Plan for multiscreen behaviour –
differentiated & tech-neutral
3. Content: be
specific, focused, spontaneous
4. Blend digital into ‘traditional’
channels – live, dynamic
9. Understand, embrace & reflect
modern British family life
8. Demonstrate how you help
‘squeezed’ Britons save money
5. Get smart about social –
outcomes, resource, platforms
6. Develop brand services as
marketing
7. Plan for mutually reinforcing
explicit & implicit consumer goals
10. Strategy & behaviour
first, technology second

41. Next

42. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: TECHNOLOGY

43. TECHNOLOGY: TV+
Penetration of Internet-enabled TV services is set to reach 60% of
the UK population in 2014; 90% of TV’s sold in the UK are forecast
to be IP-enabled
Source: Future Source Consulting

44. TECHNOLOGY: TV+
Use of Smart TV services
is relatively nascent: only
16% of homes with
connected TV’s regularly
use TV-IP catch up
services, and only 8%
watch films on demand.
As tech, UI & navigation
improves, so will adoption
& use.
Source: Deloitte „TV: Why? – Pespectives on TV‟ Media Guardian Edinburgh International TV Festival
2012

45. TECHNOLOGY: TV+
Manufacturers and media brands are actively working to build understanding &
demand for services
Chromecast HDMI dongle
„IP-enables‟ any TV Manufacturers actively educating &
marketing connected services
The 90-year old Radio Times is
planning to launch a Smart TV
guide

46. TECHNOLOGY: TV+
4 areas of opportunity and value for brands
1. Data matching & micro-targeting TV households 2. Enhanced experiences: brand content
3. New intuitive forms of interactive advertising
e.g. gesture
4. Transaction and e-commerce services

47. TECHNOLOGY: 4G & The Cloud
UK is a relative laggard in 4G. Though EE have launched
early, pricing, coverage and data caps remain a barrier. This
is set to change by the end of 2013 when all networks roll out
an offering. US penetration at 10%.

48. TECHNOLOGY: 4G & The Cloud
Even the most optimistic
forecasts suggest 4G
won’t reach 40% UK
penetration until 2016 –
and this is contingent on
national roll-out and
customer-friendly pricing
Source: Yankee Group “Mobile Broadband Forecast‟ (Jan 2013)

49. TECHNOLOGY: 4G & The Cloud
Live mobile video Mobile broadband / hotspots
Portable gaming Mobile working / office
But 4G starts to
make the mobile
cloud a reality:
mobile
working, rich media
services and
broadband-like
experiences on-
the-go.

50. TECHNOLOGY: Context comes of age
As location-based
services
develop, contextual
planning & messaging
will become a reality.
This is already possible
through, for
example, mobile geo-
fencing.
As these services
evolve, the matching of
marketing message to a
specific and relevant
brand context will start
to shape how we plan.

51. Source: Deloitte 2012; The changing face of retail. The store of the future: the new role of the store in a
multichannel environment
The role of the store is shifting
as multichannel retailing
grows
TECHNOLOGY: Retail as experience

52. TECHNOLOGY: Retail as experience
Stores as technologically-enabled brand
experiences and showrooms – which steer
shoppers into digital channels

53. TECHNOLOGY: Integrated data
‘Big Data’ is not the
challenge.
Integrated, actionable data
that answers marketing
questions & connects
customer behaviour across
disparate data points is the
challenge.

54. TECHNOLOGY: Integrated data
Client customer & sales data
Media delivery &
performance data
Digital analytics – web &
platform data
Environmental data e.g.
weather, market forecasts
Structured, ‘owned’
data
Unstructured, predictiv
e data
Conversational analysis &
brand sentiment
Competitive intelligence &
benchmarking
Modelled
relationships &
interdependencies
Guides strategic
planning
Identifies marketing
opportunities &
weaknesses
Drives real-time
changes to comms

55. TECHNOLOGY: Integrated data
AND
Opportunities & issues:
Behavioural
patterns, trends, contradictions, a
nomalies
Storytelling through data
Creative response:
Uncover customer insight
Re-frame or shape agency briefs
Controlled, measurable creative
„experiments‟
MATHS MAGIC

56. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: PEOPLE

57. PEOPLE: Attention deficit
The growth &
ubiquity of media
devices is
changing the way
we filter and
process both
content &
advertising

58. PEOPLE: Attention deficit

59. PEOPLE: Attention deficit
The growth & ubiquity of media devices is changing the way we filter and
process both content & advertising

60. PEOPLE: The redefinition of youth
Youth unemployment, rising property prices and debt are forcing Western youth
to be more pragmatic and less hedonistic then before

61. PEOPLE: The redefinition of youth
Whilst their parents take their ‘generational dividend’ and have fun with it – the
empty nest is a new kind of youthful freedom, with much more spending money

62. PEOPLE: The redefinition of youth
Giving rise to virtual spaces that aren’t colonised by parents or can be
controlled for privacy

63. PEOPLE: Play
32.9m gamers in the UK
82% of 8 – 65 year olds
are gamers in some
form, from casual to
serious
But ‘play’ has bigger
implications than
computer game play…
Source: IAB Gaming Britain, 2012

64. PEOPLE: Play
Play is a state of mind. And a powerful way to shape & understand behaviour.
Play shapes how we share 2nd screening & playable media
‘Implicit’ market research through game
techniques
Re-framing behaviour & perception of
abstract services e.g. energy use

65. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: THINKING

66. THINKING: Measuring behaviour
Implicit
New data gathering &
research techniques
Explicit
Behavioural data
sources, patterns &
analysis
Controlled
experiments
Hypothesis &
behavioural
psychology testing
Conventional survey-based, perceptual research is increasingly a poor
predictor of how people respond in actual behaviour to products and
communication

67. THINKING: Measuring behaviour
UK government’s
Behavioural Insight Team
are leading in the way in
applying controlled
behavioural experiments to
shaping policy strategy.
Building marketing
experiments to test
behavioural response
overcomes problems
relating to gaps between
intention & action in
research

68. THINKING: Live media systems
The ‘Internet of Media’
and ‘Integrated Data’ will
fuel another shift in
planning, towards live
media systems, across
any connected
screen, which can be
updated dynamically and
change to reflect
messaging and content
over the lifetime of a
campaign

69. THINKING: Live media systems
At the heart is a shift in planning
approach: how to plan for
live, updatable, contextual
messaging across media
platforms

70. THINKING: Meaningful marketing
Source: Havas Media Group Meaningful Brands Survey 2013
Building authentic
meaning and purpose
is becoming
increasingly important:
giving people what they
genuinely want &
making their world a
better place

71. THINKING: Meaningful marketing
Meaningful brands and organisations will need to demonstrate
their meaning in action, not just word. How are you building
meaningful initiatives that become compelling brand
communication?

72. 10 things to do PREPARE FOR
1. Data-targeted TV, augmenting ads
with connected TV experiences
2. Mobile rich media & cloud-based
brand services, enabled by 4G
3. An integrated, actionable
marketing data intelligence platform
4. A process for extracting strategic
insight & creative application from
data platforms
9. Build towards
live, dynamic, contextual multimedia
comms
8. Understand behaviour ‘in the wild’:
develop controlled marketing
experiments
5. A consistent brand story that can
be built piecemeal an attention-
starved world
6. How to help youth audiences cope
& their parents profit from the ‘golden
generation’
7. Embrace the spirit of play in
campaign design & research
10. Understand how your brand is
meaningful in action & word

73. Beyond

74. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: TECHNOLOGY

75. TECHNOLOGY: Co-creation gets mainstream
All these products were crowd-funded & produced by individuals or
start-ups. Pre-tail & crowd-funding platforms are building momentum
and starting to attract mainstream attention.

76. TECHNOLOGY: Co-creation gets mainstream
‘Pre-tailed’ products &
services have the
potential to disrupt
established categories
– and they come ‘in-
built’ with customer
advocacy and support

77. TECHNOLOGY: Co-creation gets mainstream
3D printing has been the preserve of hobbyists, start-
ups and designers, but first mainstream consumer
applications are emerging e.g. Disney personalised
merchandise, 3D product marketplaces

78. TECHNOLOGY: NFC comes of age
Source: Posterscope / Clear Channel Study – UK & USA
Despite industry
hype, NFC is yet to gain
user traction.
Relatively few devices
NFC-enabled, low
understanding of NFC
benefits & limited
number of applications

79. TECHNOLOGY: NFC comes of age
Right now mobile payments are fragmented. NFC is one side of the equation
– secure consolidated user & merchant payment solutions are needed for
NFC wallet to start to scale.

80. TECHNOLOGY: NFC comes of age
But in the next 5 – 10 years NFC will mature and start to deliver on it’s
potential – with benefits for end users and brands

81. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
One trillion connected
devices by 2015
- IBM Investor Briefing ‘Making Markets:
Smarter Planet’

82. Title of presentation

83. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
“20% of car sales in 2015 will
include embedded connectivity
while over half will be connected -
either by embedded, tethered or
smartphone integration”
The sublime…

84. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
The sublime…

85. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
The ridiculous?

86. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
Connected motoring Self-monitoring Healthcare
Home security
Universal remote
control
Education / distance
learning
Most promising & productive areas:

87. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
There are already opportunities to ‘connect’
products in ways that are motivating to users

88. TECHNOLOGY: Internet of everything
For example:
EVRYTHING are a
UK start-up
specialising in
providing
management and
measurement
platform for
connected products –
making it easy to trial
connected product
experiences

89. TECHNOLOGY: Fragmentation of social
NOW: solar system NEXT: constellation

90. TECHNOLOGY: Fragmentation of social
Brands and users will
develop a platform
repertoire most useful for
them.
Strategy, content & ideas
should lead – followed by
best-fit platform choice

91. TECHNOLOGY: Augmented life
Likely to be significant investment in
augmented experience tech in the next
decade, both in new products & user
education.

92. TECHNOLOGY: Augmented life
Opportunities & issues:
- Location-based experiences
- New ways of capturing &
sharing content
- Augmenting retail
- Gesture-based advertising &
marketing service design
- Privacy & permission
- Intrusive vs. permissive
advertising
- Unintended distraction from the
‘real world’

93. NOW/NEXT/BEYOND: PEOPLE

94. PEOPLE: Murdered by modernity
- Charlie Brooker

95. PEOPLE: Murdered by modernity
“The Murdered by Modernity
mindset is bound to gain
greater prominence in the
years ahead.
But this is not a trend that will
necessarily cause contradictory
feelings. We might like to
complain about our always-on
lifestyles and our inability to
escape from technology, but
we will also enjoy our ability to
find information instantly with a
click or a swipe and each new
innovation will be welcomed
with considerable enthusiasm.”
- Richard Nicholls, Future
Foundation

96. PEOPLE: Murdered by modernity
Say less, make it better & more meaningful
Be available when needed, make it easy
Champion privacy and data transparency
Earn attention, minimise intrusion
Help and occasionally encourage audiences to switch off

97. PEOPLE: The demographic crunch
In developed economies
we have hit a demographic
‘sweet spot’ optimal to
economic growth – the
point at which a high
proportion of working age
people support a small
pool of dependants.
We are now emerging out
that ‘sweet spot’ into a
more challenging period.

98. PEOPLE: The demographic crunch
This change may, in the
long-term, affect organic
economic growth.
But it’s already starting to
create an expectations
gap:
- Retirees expecting sustained
economic wealth
- Life/quality expectancy
- Fewer relative opportunities
amongst younger working age
groups

99. PEOPLE: The demographic crunch
Developments and implications of the ‘crunch’:
Most prosperous audiences will be
late working age & early retirement
– we need to rethink our obsession
with youth targeting in marketing
Older working ages and 2nd, 3rd or
even 4th careers will become the
norm
Solutions and services that help
retired age groups live sustainably
and fund healthcare will become
crucial
Saving more, at an earlier stage in
working life, is likely to become a
necessity as pension schemes are
less generous
Technological learning and re-
learning will become important as
workers need to remain skilled for
longer
Need to approach representations
of age/youth in marketing differently
– as a state of mind or
attitude, rather conventional age
breaks

100. PEOPLE: Eco returns
Environment concerns have receded since 2008 where economic concerns
have grown, but as economic indicators improve and climate change
becomes more tangible – this will once again become a critical issue

101. PEOPLE: Eco returns
Global warming issues are becoming more tangible – and pressing

102. PEOPLE: Eco returns
Global warming issues are becoming more tangible – and pressing

103. PEOPLE: Eco returns
The Global 100: World Leaders in Clean Capitalism
The next wave of
heightened interest in
sustainability will
have a greater sense
of urgency –
‘greenwashing’ of the
past will appear
hollow. Does your
brand or organisation
have a sustainability
plan?

104. 10 things to do MONITOR, EXPERIMENT, PLAN FOR
1. Involve customers in product
design: co-creation or customisation
2. Plan NFC services & applications
for when it hits critical mass
3. Create connected experiences &
rewards from physical products
4. Move towards the best fit social
platform ‘repertoire’ for your brand
9. Approach ‘youth marketing’ as
state of mind, not age
8. Plan for demographic change: re-
think existing life-stage stereotypes
5. Try augmented brand experiments
in new or existing devices
6. Help users simplify their digital
lives –
simplicity, moderation, ‘analogue’
experiences
7. Good citizenship of the digital age:
respect privacy, minimise intrusion
10. Become a sustainable brand &
champion sustainable behaviour

105. Now, Next, Beyond
Mobile in the customer journey
Beyond mobile
The (re)awakening of content
Internet of media
Multiscreen behaviour
The post-nuclear age
Recession on our minds
Getting real about social
More utility, less noise
Explicit and implicit thinking
TV+
4G & The Cloud
Context comes of age
Retail as experience
Integrated data
Attention deficit
Redefinition of youth
Play
Measuring behaviour
Live media systems
Meaningful marketing
Co-creation gets mainstream
NFC comes of age
Internet of Things
Fragmentation of social
Augmented life
Murdered by modernity
The demographic crunch
Eco returns
Now Next Beyond
Tech
People
Thinking

106. Want to hear more?
mark.holden@arenamedia.com
@holdenmw