Ukrainian Gas Sector: Issues of Performance Optimization in War Period Mykhailo Gonchar, Globalistic Centre “Strategy XXI”

1. GAS SECTOR OF UKRAINE
Functioning optimization issues in war time
Mykhailo Gonchar,
Andriy Chubyk,
April 22, 2015
Ivano-Frankivsk

2. 1997 Ukraine signed an
agreement about leasing of its
Black Sea bases to the Russian
Black Sea Fleet until 2017 in
exchange for debts writing off;
Tycoonization of economics;
Loss of direct agreements with
Central Asian countries;
Gas crisis 2006;
Gas crisis 2009;
Extension of Russian lease on
naval facilities in Crimea till 2042 in
exchange for a gas discount;
Hybrid military aggression 2014
2014 – 180 days
without Russian gas
Gas sector in bilateral relations
№ стр.2geostrategy.org.ua

3. Ukrainian Gas Balance
№ стр.3geostrategy.org.ua
Main values 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(as in 2014)
Annual
consumption,
bcm
59.305 54.775 50.358 42.465 42.5
Annual
production,
bcm
20.614 20.191 20.998 20.5 19.5
Annual import,
bcm
44.801 32.939 27.974:
25.842–RF
2.132–EU
19.6:
14.5–RF
5.1–EU
23.0:
8.5–RF
14.5–EU
2015 – overcoming of critical dependence (less than 25%).

4. Crimea:
Cancelled agreements with
international companies. Lost
“Nezaleznist” and “Petro
Godovanets” drilling platforms.
Blocked marine gas
production development.
geostrategy.org.ua № стр.4
East: Blocked operations on
Yuzivska Field and some
traditional gas fields.
Gas production
decrease (1)
Cabinet of Ministers
and Parliament of
Ukraine: drastic
changes in fiscal
regime (increase of
rent payments)

5. After construction of Turkish Stream, Russian Gasprom threatens
to stop gas transit across territory of Ukraine.
GTS workload decrease (2)
№ стр.5geostrategy.org.ua
Transit in 2020
(unofficial European foreca
OPAL 100% = 41 bcm
Turkish Stream 2 lines
= 12 bcm
Turkish Stream 4 lines
= 0 bcm

6. Critical infrastructure abolishment (3)
№ стр. 6geostrategy.org.ua
Vuglegirsk,
Donetsk Region
Nebyliv, Ivano-Frankivsk
Region
Lohvytsya,
Poltava Region

7. A balanced reform, gradual function separation of
strategic sector management.
State ownership, financial and administrative
autonomy, guaranteed renewal of the drilling park,
increase in motivation of the engineering staff.
State ownership, financial and administrative
autonomy, priority of servicing the domestic market,
developed relations with GTS operators of the EU.
REFORMING OF THE GAS SECTOR (4)
№ стр.7geostrategy.org.ua
Maximum transparency of the investment and financial activity!

8. President – Special Envoy on Energy Security;
The National Security Council – evaluation and proposals on
purchasing and forming of energy reserves for 2015-2016;
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine – to work out and adopt
NSC proposals, reconsider rent payments, make other
conditions for the development of the domestic gas production;
6.NJSC «Naftogaz of Ukraine» and PJSC «Ukrtransgaz» -
the program of gas transportation system operation under the
conditions of gas transit reduction;
Proposals on alternative use of the GTS (e.g. СО2).
Proposals for actions during the
wartime
№ стр.8
geostrategy.org.ua

9. Reduction of gas consumption is the duty of every citizen!
The ways to achieve it:
The requirement to provide gas metering (gas meters);
Insulation of buildings;
Staged cancellation of preferential prices and subsidies;
The priority of modernization over subsidies;
Active support for the development of alternative energy
sources.
Reduction of Gas Consumption
№ стр.9
geostrategy.org.ua

10. CONTACTS:
WWW.GEOSTRATEGY.ORG.UA
GEOSTRATEGY@UKR.NET
+380 44 4254162
+380 97 9811141.
Centre for
Global Studies
«Strategy ХХІ»
Thank You for Attention!