2. Outline
• What is climate change?
• Ecomodernism in a nutshell
• Ecomodernism is an
extension of key points from
modern philosophy
• Machiavelli – lowering the bar
• Locke 2.0
• Spelling out the ecomodern
vision
• The centrality of price
• Decoupling
• The Kaya Identity and CDR
3. How did we get
in this mess?
Modernity!
How will we get
out of this
mess?
More Modernity!
4. It is not just a mess. Climate change
is the unintended consequence of
human development
5.
6. Ecomodernism in a nutshell
• “The solution to the unintended consequences of
modernity is, and has always been, more modernity —
just as the solution to the unintended consequences of
our technologies has always been more technology.”
• Shellenberger and Nordhaus
• Consider the ozone hole
• Think scale!
• If you got all Americans to cut meat consumption by 25% you would save 82
million tons of CO2 emissions annually. That is four days worth of US
emissions and TWO DAYS of emissions from China.
7. Ecomodernism is an extension of modern
philosophy
• Machiavelli and lowering the bar
• Matt Taibbi: “The average American likes meat, sports, money,
porn, cars, cartoons, and shopping. Less popular: socialism,
privilege-checking, and the world ending in 10 years.”
• Locke and increase
• Human labor transforms nature (‘waste’) into value for convenience
– governments instituted to protect this growing wealth-creation
process.
• All people benefit via a trickle down sort of thing.
• Locke 2.0 = ecomodernism = sustain this basic logic of ingenuity
even on a crowded planet…
8. Spelling out the ecomodern vision
• Our ‘schedule’ (future) is one of increasing temps, at least for the next
several decades. (True, we won’t hit 1.5C, probably not even 2C)
• But it is also a future with dramatically less hunger and poverty.
• A wealthier future will be better adapted to the warming world – and will be
better able to mitigate emissions to reduce warming.
• Indeed, the supposed ‘business as usual’ RCP scenarios are quickly outdated
as decarbonization increases – thanks to green tech.
• In the long run, we can turn the temp down.
• Vast areas will be re-wilded as we develop more efficient agricultural
systems (e.g., lab-grown meats).
• We will have begun extra-planetary resource extraction – effectively zoning
the Earth ‘residential.’
9. From Sin to Dignity
• The pessimist take on climate change is an eco-theology about
sinfulness, transgression, hubris…
• But we are natural creatures doing what we do best – use intelligence
to control our environment
• Along the way, we are truly ‘humanizing’ ourselves, making life more
dignified for more and more people.
10. Get ready for
exponential growth!
• More solar energy strikes the Earth’s surface in 2 hours than
the global energy demand for an entire year.
11. The Centrality of Price
• Scarcity just means an increase in price
• That signals innovators and investors to find alternatives
• Examples: copper and fiber optic; fracking
• The philosophical question: what costs and benefits are
taken into account? What is the ‘real cost’ of a gallon of
gas…how do we get that into the price?
• So, the trick is to get this kind of innovation and
investment around carbon, which has not been priced.
• This can happen via markets, government, investors (e.g.,
Blackrock), activists, and NGOS.