Past, present, and future of railway systems in the Philippines: a presentation to the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines by Rene Santiago, Managing Director of Bellwether Advisory Inc.
1. Railways Philippines 2012
A Presentation for the American Chamber of Commerce
By Rene Santiago, Managing Director, Bellwether Advisotry Inc.
29 February 2012
2. Outline of Presentation
ď¨ Introduction
⢠Why the interest on rail
⢠Historical context
ď¨ Intra-urban Rail lines
⢠Lines 1 and 2 and proposed Extensions
⢠MRT 3 and upgrade
⢠MRT 7
⢠Others (BRT, Monorail, Cebu MTS)
ď¨ Inter-urban rail lines
⢠PNR Main Line South (existing
⢠PNR Commuter South
⢠Northrail
⢠Panay Railway
⢠Mindanao Railway
ď¨ Conclusions and Q&As
3. 1 - Introduction
Rail in Manilaâs history
ď¨ Electric Tramway, 65kms in
1905 and 85 kms by 1925
ď¨ Ridership: 35,000 per day in
1906, and 126,000 in 1920:
ď¨ MERALCO: an American
company w/50-year
franchise, owned and operated
the electric tram, up to 1945.
ď¨ Closure of rail after WW2, gave
rise to jeepneys
Like other cities in many countries, the emergence of automobiles in
the 1920s led to the decline of railways, and/or government takeover
4. 1 - Introduction
Antecedents of PNR
â˘
ď¨ General plan for Railways in Luzon
prepared in 1876, with the
Ferrocaril de Manila-Dagupan
opened in 1892
ď¨ Built via a concession granted to Dagupan Station
Manila Railway Company Ltd (a
British firm), w/guaranteed 8% ROI
ď¨ At its peak,1,140 kms operational
line; managed by a SOE that was a
model of corporate efficiency
Tutuban
Station
Source: Iwata, Shizuo, âDevelopment of Public Transport in Metro Manila, Philippinesâ, 1993.
5. 1 - Introduction
Why the interests on rail?
ď¨USA not a global rail supplier/exporter (except, perhaps in
locomotives)
ď¨Philippines railway sector is "small fish in a big ocean"
ď 50-km urban rail lines, less than 10% of daily trips in MManila
ď 422-km Main Line South (Bicol); 2 trips/day on Mnl-Naga (today)
ď¨Special emphasis on High-speed Rail in "Arangkada Forumâ
ď Very few countries can justify HSR
ď USA still in the throes of heated debates; Acela Express nearest to HSR
ď¨ Nostalgia, for the grand railroads of yesteryears?
6. 2 â Intra-Urban Rail
Rebirth of Rail in Manila
⢠1972 Study -proposed a system of expressway
and railway network (ala Tokyo), including
135.1 km of subway
⢠1977 MMETROPLAN study, recommended
street-level tram car along Rizal and Taft
Avenue
⢠1979 - Decision to build LRT Line 1, 15-
km, fully-elevated
⢠1984 - Partial operation of Line 1
⢠1985 - Metrorail Network Study, proposed LRT
Lines 2, 3 and 4
⢠1989 - Failure of BOT bidding for Line 2
⢠2001-02 â Opening of Lines 3 and 2
Premised on the belief that a large metropolitan area can only be
sustained by rail, and that urban transit is the business of government
7. 3 â Intra-Urban Rail
Metro Manila Rail
MRT-7 (22-km)
5.4-km North Loop was Contract signed in 2009;
completed in 2010; but Oct 2010 expiry extended;
interface with MRT-3 still Concession flipped 2x;
unfinished Currently in holding pattern
LRT-2 East (4-km)
3 F/S since 2006, couldâve been
tendered in 2008;
JICA F/S in 2011, per DOTC
LRT1-SEP (12-km)
request;
2002: construction was
On-going study (again!)
supposed to start (SNC-
Lavalin contract)
2006: PPP implementation
per IFC study, aborted
2009: Unsolicited proposal MRT-3 (17-km)
via JVA â˘Frequent system
2010: DOTC study to breakdown, due to overloading;
merge with MRT-3 & bid
â˘MPIC proposal to
out O&M
takeover, double capacity, &
2011: Service contract for
upgrade system in limbo
OM&R
2012: ???
8. 3 â Intra-Urban Rail
Flavor of the Month for LRT-1 SEP
Project Cost ~Php59 Billion
â˘June 2012 tender, via so-called
âHybridâ PPP
â˘CW to be funded & built by
private investor
â˘Rolling Stock & Satellite depot
via ODA (hence, govât)
â˘30-year Concession, Fares
adjustable with CPI
â˘Winning bidder takes over line
management, from start
9. 3 â Intra-Urban Rail
Other Mass Transit Projects
No study (pre-fs or
FS) yet;
Maybe, 2026
Unsolicited proposal (B-O-O) of Ayala Land
for a BRT System on Ayala Avenue
presented to DoTC in Oct 2011; no response
BRT System for MetroCebu and Davao City
2009 study and proposal, backed by IBRD
10. 3 â Provincial/Inter-Urban Rail
Decline of inter-urban railways
Manila-Clark (Northrail)
â˘10% accomplishment from
2006-2010
Main Line North â˘Works suspended since 2010
closed in 1984 â˘Impasse with Sinomach, likely
to follow the T-3 fiasco
Main Line South
(448-km from Mnl-
Naga)
Operations ceased in
2006 due to typhoon-
induced damage
Re-opened in
2011, 2 trips/day
Rehab plan ~Php29
billion
11. 3 â Provincial/Inter-Urban Rail
âZombieâ Railway Projects
Reviving a 1985 âcarcassâ
The Mindanao Railway fantasy
12. 4 â Conclusions
Concluding Remarks
ďŽ Expect no acceleration in project implementation
⢠But, miracles do happen (rarely)
ďŽ Absence of a coherent and sustained rail policy
⢠LRTA and PNR are financially bankrupt; financial re-structuring plans
unacted, for more than 10 years already
⢠Toxic environment for rail to flourish and thrive (e.g., amateurs at the
helm, low fares, poor maintenance, etc.)
ďŽ High Interests on rail from ODA & Private Sector
⢠Lending portfolio of ADB (strategy 2020) for urban transport to scale
up by 5x in 5 years
⢠Big players (SMC, Ayala, MPIC, foreign investors, etc) on-the-prowl
for opportunities [Texan saying:âBig Hats, No Cattlesâ]