1. VOTING BEHAVIOUR
GOV 1

2. KEY QUESTIONS
• What are the factors behind voting
behaviour?
• Assess the effect of election campaigns and
opinion polls on the outcomes of general
elections.
• What role do the media play in winning or
losing elections?
• How important is social class in voting
behaviour?

3. Models of VB
• Party Identification
• Social Structures
• Rational Choice
• Issue Voting
• Party Leadership
• Tactical Voting

4. Influences on VB
• Election Campaigns
• Opinion Polls
• The Media
• Apathy

5. General Election Case Studies
• 1979 – Mrs Thatcher kicks 18 years of Tory rule
• 1997 – Mr Blair returns Labour to power with a
historic landslide
• 2001 – A low point for democracy!
• 2005 – A victory for who?
• 2010 – a new way to do politics.

6. Voting Behaviour & Turnout
• Turnout used to be 75% for GE’s
• Turnout at LE’s is much lower
• 18-25 year olds aren't registering to vote
• Turnout
– 1997 71%
– 2001 59%
– 2005 61%
– 2010 65%

7. Tumbling Turnout
• Apathy
• Changing fabric of community
• Refusal to vote
• Party dealignment
• Class dealignment
• Abandonment of party ideology
• No choice between parties
• Campaigns focus on wrong issues
• Media overkill
• Opinion polls
• Weather

8. Encouraging People to Vote!

9. Why do people vote the way
•
they do? party? The Party
Is it because people identify with a particular
Identification Model
• Is it because people’s voting habits are shaped by social factors?
The Social Structures Model
• Is it because people make rational choices? The Rational Choice
Model
• Is it because modern politics is dominated by a dominant
ideology? The Dominant Ideology Model
• When people don’t vote, is it Apathy?
• What is Tactical Voting?
‘Vote Local!’

10. The Social Structures Model
The basis argument here is that voting habits are influenced by a variety
of social structures and factors. These include -
CLASS RELIGION
OCCUPATION GENDER
REGION &
GEOGRAPHY ETHNICITY
AGE

11. Social Class
• Electorate divided into A, B, C1, C2, D & E’s
• A, B, C1 = Conservative Voters
• C2, D, E = Labour Voters
• Model dominated political thinking in 1960’s and 70’s
• Class dealignment
• Emergence of New Working Class

12. Social Class
“Class is the basis of British party
politics; all else is embellishment and
detail”
Pulzer 1975
http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/collections/p007jyx1#p007n113
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKFTtYx2OHc&NR=1&feature=fvw

13. Gender, Age & Ethnicity
• Factors which ‘supposedly’ shape how you vote
• Gender: women tend to vote Conservative
• Age: 18-35 Labour
45-65 Conservative
• Ethnicity: Black & Asian voters tend to be Labour supporters

14. Regional Factors
• Political parties tend to have ‘clumped’
support
• Labour – industrial towns in North of
England, Scotland & Wales
• Conservatives – London, South East suburbia
& rural communities in England
• Liberal Democrats – evenly spread support

15. Party Deference
“The Conservatives have had more
experience over the centuries. Its in the
blood for them, running the country.
There’s more family background in the
Conservatives, more of the aristocratic,
more heritage. They're gentlemen born. I
think they're made for that sort of job”
R Samuel – The Deference Voter 1960

16. Partisan and Class Theories
“Broadly speaking the electorate was divided into
large blocs which provided reliable and stable
voting support for the Conservative and Labour
parties. The interconnected phenomena of class
and partisan alignment were like twin
pillars….which supported and sustained stable
party support on the part of individual voters and
stable two-party system overall”
Denver 1994

17. Party Identification Model
• Voters identify with a political party in their youth
and remain loyal voters as they age
• Choice of political party tends to be driven by social
and economic factors
• http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/collections/p007jyx1#p007n19z
1950’s 90%+ of voters
2000+ 55% of voters
• Party Dealignment

18. Partisan Alignment
“Generally speaking do you usually
think of yourself as Conservative,
Labour, a Liberal or what?”
Butler & Stokes 1974

19. The Party Identification Model
Check out
The Basic Argument TACTICAL VOTING -
• People identify with a political
it’s linked to this
party - for lots of reasons - and
stick with that party for life. argument
• 1950s - 90%+ of voters felt a
strong party attachment to either • Voters are tired of the two
the Conservative or Labour main parties.
Parties. • Voters have an increased
• 1997 - less than 75% of voters awareness of political
felt a similar attachment. issues.
• This process is known as • Better education.
PARTISAN DEALIGNMENT. • Voters less likely to think
in class terms.
WHY DOES IT HAPPEN? • Some voters no longer
identify with party.
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blGVaUQ

20. Issue Voting
• Vote for a party based solely on their manifesto
policies
• http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/collections/p007jyx1#p007n16m
• Model arose post 1979
• Parties traditionally focus on certain policy areas
– Labour: health & education
– Conservatives: taxes, economy & law
– Liberal Democrats: environment
• Independent MPs

21. Rational Choice Model
• Voting behaviour influenced by:
– Parties track record
– Election manifesto
– Party leaders
– Key party players
• Voters make a rational decision not based on class or age or
gender or party allegiance BUT on who will benefit them and
their families

22. Rational Voter Theory
“….issues that are defined in terms of alternative
courses of government action and issues that are
defined in terms of goals and values that govt
may achieve…….It is natural that the analysis of
issues should have a bias towards issues that have
meaning in terms of alternative policies”
Butler & Stokes 1974

23. Rational Choice Model
Can you guess what
The Basic Argument the key issues were for
Class, age, gender - none of these rational voters in the
are as important as the RATIONAL 2001 election?
CHOICE made by voters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=n4IlHiMXTrc&feature=related 11 -EURO 40%
What 10 -EU 43%
policies
How is the 9 - Asylum 52%
does the
party
Party 8 - Transport 64%
performing?
have?
7 - Tax 64%
6 - Pensions 65%
What do I 5 - Employment 70%
Do I agree think about the
with their Party leaders? 4 - Economy 74%
manifesto?
3 - Education 81%
I’m being 2 - Law & Order 82%
rational! 1 - NHS 89%
http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=6Qba6Yj6BJY&feature=channel

24. The Dominant Ideology Model
The Basic Argument Dominant Ideology Case Study
The Media & the 2001 Election
• The institutions that • Majority of the press supported Labour.
control the key • Labour - record levels of support from
institutions of the UK national dailies and Sunday papers.
share a DOMINANT
DID THE MEDIA SET THE AGENDA IN 2001?
IDEOLOGY.
• NO - hardly anyone was interested in
the election anyway. Press coverage
• These institutions are was subdued, few front page stories.
the MEDIA, BIG • NO - but they did try. However,
BUSINESS and journalists and voters had very different
POLITICAL PARTIES.
PARTIES views as to what the key election
issues were.
• The 2001 election result was never in
doubt - little evidence exists that the
media were able to influence the result
either way.

25. The Voting Context Model Why is
this election
taking
place?
And the basic argument is...
Will I
bother
Voters THINK about the election voting?
campaign and the REASON for
calling the election.
If I do vote,
why will I
Voters ask themselves a series
vote?
of questions.
The questions What type of
election is
this?
Voters are therefore Will I vote the
attempting to put some same way in
all elections?
CONTEXT onto the meaning
of the election.

26. The Party Leader Effect
• Rise in profile of the party leader
• Assessment of competence to lead country – economy, war,
Europe, personality and personal lives
• Media obsession with leaders
• Mrs T set the mould - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7noHkLaZ5VI
• Changing role of leader in govt
• PM or President?
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=EaL8BN4Gr0U&p=24B2AFBF94834CE9&playnext=1&index=4
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fIyT66s4So&feature=related

27. Apathy
•18-24 year olds - 39%.
1997 •Low working class
Turnout turnout also.
71.4% •Big regional differences:
The most
2001 apathetic?
Turnout Liverpool Riverside 34.1%
59.4% Winchester 72.3%
WHY?
•‘Too inconvenient’ 21% • PASSIVE ABSTENTION
•‘Away on the day’ 16% ‘can’t be bothered’
•‘Not registered’ 15%
• ACTIVE ABSTENTION
•‘No polling card’ 11%
refusal on principle / protest
•‘Not interested’ 10%

28. Tactical Voting
• A product of FPTP system
• Voting for party A to keep out party B who you
dislike because party C, your first choice, has no
chance of winning
• 1997 Hazel Grove Constituency
– Tory 1000 vote majority over Lib Dems
– If you are a Labour supporter, who do you vote for?

29. Tactical Voting And your basic argument is...
Voters choose to vote for a candidate
that may not be their first choice
1992 candidate in order to prevent their
May have least favourite party or
reduced the candidate being
Conservative elected
majority by half.
1997 2001
•More important role •Strong evidence of tactical voting.
in outcome of the •Labour voters switched to Liberals
election. in key constituencies.
•‘More anti-tory voting •‘Independent’ encouraged a
than ever before’ tactical vote.
(Butler and Stokes).

30. Influence of
campaigning, media,
opinion polls……..
“Political change was neither related to the
degree of exposure nor to any particular
programmes or arguments put forward by the
parties…..The inter-election years become more
important than the 17 days campaigning,
however intensive, because the swing is almost
entirely accounted for before the opening of the
election campaign”
Trenamen & McQuail 1961

31. Election Campaigns
• Jury out on influence of actual campaigns
• 1979-87
– Labour poorly organised and unprofessional/ Conservatives use of
powerful national negative advertising
• 1990 to today
– Labour got slick and carefully managed campaigns/ Conservatives
campaigning tired and focused on wrong issues
– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIBZ1QXi610
– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBcYytunF-Y
– - 2010 campaign http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=4lyaV0igUDA&p=06BE5FAB442BA2DB&playnext=1&index=3
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rqis1mkS2CE&feature=related

32. General Election 2010

37. The 2005 General
Election Case Study

38. The 2001 General
Election Case Study

39. The 1997
General Election
Case Study

40. Was the 1997 General election
a text book example of the
power of a well organised
campaign OR was it just time
for a change ?

41. Opinion Polls
• Disagreement on polls influence on elections
• Polls often seen as election forecasts
• Polls are a snapshot of voting intention
• Best guide available for politicians and media
• Cant be bothered or bandwagon effect
• Different sampling methods
• Sample sizes

42. Video Task
• Who conducted the BBC’s exit poll?
• What was the sample size?
• What was the forecast result for:
seats share of vote
– Labour
– Conservative
– Lib Dems
– Others
• What Labour majority did the poll forecast?
• What percentage swing to the Tories did the poll
forecast?
• What percentage swing did the Tories need to win?

43. The Media

44. The Media
TYPES
OF
MEDIA

45. The Media
• Difference of opinion on influence of media
• Looking at media content suggests there is some
level of influence
• Editors decisions on what and what not to focus on
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eBT6OSr1TI&feature=related
• Influence of the newspapers – If The Sun backs you,
you win!
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDw-1bYatIs&feature=related
• Labour recognised this, implemented a programme
to charm and educate the media about NEW
LABOUR

46. ISSUES
Ownership Concentration
Distortion of Reality People may be
too busy to find
Political Bias
out themselves
National Interest
Public Ignorance