2. Facts
• Began in Britain in 1938
• Carried out on a regular basis since
1950s
• Mainly now done using random
sampling using the Electoral
Register to reduce error. Much
higher rates of response on the
telephone
3. The record: any good?
• In the 1950s and 1960s • In the 1970s & 80s
they were remarkably voting became more
volatile due to partisan
successful & class dealignment
• Due to high levels of • 1992 notoriously poor –
class & partisan nearly all polls predicted
a Labour win or hung
alignment? parliament (spiral of
• Record improved again silence?)
recent years – 2005 & • In 1997 & 2001 they
predicted Labour wins –
2010 very good – but still huge
especially N.O.P. discrepancies on the size
4. Why have them?
• Viewed with interest by
politicians, the media and the
public – gauge the mood of
the nation
• Useful to parties for issues
and image...to maximise their
appeal
• PMs have used them to
decide when to (or when
not!) to hold an election –
‘playing the polls’
5. Do polls matter?
Some countries ban them in the
run up to elections as the feel
they may influence the result...
• Bandwagon effect
Suggests that the polls
encourage voters to climb
on the bandwagon of the
party that is ahead so they
end up backing the
victorious side
• Boomerang effect
suggests that electors are
encouraged to change
sides and support the
underdog, the party
behind in the polls No conclusive proof either way...
