Área de Conocimiento 08, Gestión de Riesgos

1. Chapter
9:
Project
Risk
Management
Stevbros
Training
&
Consultancy
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PMP
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are
registered
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of
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Project
Management
Ins9tute,
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2. Overview
Ini%a%ng
process
group
Planning
process
group
Execu%ng
process
group
Monitoring
&
controlling
process
group
Closing
process
group
Project
risk
management
• Plan
Risk
Management
• IdenJfy
Risks
• Perform
QualitaJve
Risk
Analysis
• Perform
QuanJtaJve
Risk
Analysis
• Plan
Risk
Responses
• Control
Risks
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3. What
is
Risk?
• Risk
is
an
uncertain
event
or
condiJon
that,
if
it
occurs,
has
a
posiJve
or
negaJve
effect
on
a
project’s
objecJves
• Example
of
posiJve
events
– You
ordered
new
soVware
which
is
cheaper
than
your
old
soVware
because
of
budget
constraints.
However,
the
new
soVware
turns
out
to
be
more
efficient.
• Example
of
negaJve
events
– The
government
mandates
a
compulsory
holiday
due
to
an
outbreak
of
swine
flu.
The
project
gets
delayed
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4. Concepts
• Risk
appe9te,
which
is
the
degree
of
uncertainty
an
enJty
is
willing
to
take
on,
in
anJcipaJon
of
a
reward.
• Risk
averse,
one
who
does
not
take
risks.
•
Risk
tolerance,
which
is
the
degree,
amount,
or
volume
of
risk
that
an
organizaJon
or
individual
will
withstand.
• Risk
threshold,
which
refers
to
measures
along
the
level
of
uncertainty
or
the
level
of
impact
at
which
a
stakeholder
may
have
a
specific
interest.
Below
that
risk
threshold,
the
organizaJon
will
accept
the
risk.
Above
that
risk
threshold,
the
organizaJon
will
not
tolerate
the
risk.
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5. Risk
categorizaJon
examples
• Example
1:
– External:
regulatory,
governmental,
subcontractors,
suppliers,
and
environmental
– Internal:
funding,
resource,
and
prioriJzaJon
– Technical:
requirements,
technology,
and
quality
– Project
Management:
esJmaJng,
planning,
schedule,
and
communicaJon
• Example
2:
– Schedule
risk:?
– Cost
Risk?
– Quality
Risk?
– Scope
Risk:
Looks
like
you
have
not
understood
the
work
properly
and
you
might
have
to
redo
the
whole
thing!
– Resource
Risk:
CEO
has
asked
the
technical
architect
to
work
on
another
project.
In
such
cases,
who
would
make
design
decisions
on
the
projects?
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6. Plan
risk
management
• The
process
of
defining
how
to
conduct
risk
management
acJviJes
for
a
project.
The
key
benefit
of
this
process
is
it
ensures
that
the
degree,
type,
and
visibility
of
risk
management
are
commensurate
with
both
the
risks
and
the
importance
of
the
project
to
the
organizaJon.
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Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
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A
Guide
to
the
Project
Management
Body
of
Knowledge,
FiEh
Edi9on
(PMBOK®
Guide)
©2013
Project
Management
Ins9tute,
Inc.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Figure
11-­‐2
Page
313.

7. Inputs
1. Project
Management
Plan
– all
approved
subsidiary
management
plans
and
baselines
should
be
taken
into
consideraJon
in
order
to
make
the
risk
management
plan
consistent
with
them
2. Project
Charter
– can
provide
various
inputs
such
as
high-­‐level
risks,
high-­‐level
project
descripJons,
and
high-­‐level
requirements.
3. Stakeholder
Register
4. Enterprise
Environmental
Factors
– contain
risk
aetudes,
thresholds,
and
tolerances
that
describe
the
degree
of
risk
that
an
organizaJon
will
withstand.
5. OrganizaJonal
Process
Assets
– contain
risk
categories,
common
definiJons
of
concepts
and
terms,
risk
statement
formats,
standard
templates,
roles
and
responsibiliJes,
authority
levels
for
decision
making,
and
lessons
learned.
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8. Tools
and
techniques
1. AnalyJcal
Techniques
– for
example,
a
stakeholder
risk
profile
analysis
may
be
performed
to
grade
and
qualify
the
project
stakeholder
risk
appeJte
and
tolerance.
Other
techniques,
such
as
the
use
of
strategic
risk
scoring
sheets,
are
used
to
provide
a
high-­‐level
assessment
of
the
risk
exposure
of
the
project
based
on
the
overall
project
context.
2. Expert
Judgment
3. MeeJngs
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9. Outputs
1. Risk
Management
Plan
– Methodology:
approaches,
tools,
and
data
sources
that
will
be
used
to
perform
risk
management
on
the
project.
– Roles
and
responsibiliJes
– BudgeJng
– Timing
– Risk
categories
– DefiniJons
of
risk
probability
and
impact
– Probability
and
impact
matrix
(details
at
next
slide).
– Revised
stakeholders’
tolerances.
– ReporJng
formats
– Tracking:
documents
how
risk
acJviJes
will
be
recorded
for
the
benefit
of
the
current
project
and
how
risk
management
processes
will
be
audited.
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10. Probability
&
impact
matrix
• Risk
Probability:
High:
50
percent
or
higher
(likely);
Medium:
Between
10
and
50
percent
(unlikely);
Low:
10
percent
or
lower
(very
unlikely).
• Risk
Impact:
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
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A
Guide
to
the
Project
Management
Body
of
Knowledge,
FiEh
Edi9on
(PMBOK®
Guide)
©2013
Project
Management
Ins9tute,
Inc.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Table
11-­‐1
Page
318.

11. IdenJfy
risks
• The
process
of
determining
which
risks
may
affect
the
project
and
documenJng
their
characterisJcs.
The
key
benefit
of
this
process
is
the
documentaJon
of
exisJng
risks
and
the
knowledge
and
ability
it
provides
to
the
project
team
to
anJcipate
events.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
11
A
Guide
to
the
Project
Management
Body
of
Knowledge,
FiEh
Edi9on
(PMBOK®
Guide)
©2013
Project
Management
Ins9tute,
Inc.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Figure
11-­‐5
Page
319.

12. Inputs(1/3)
1. Risk
Management
Plan
– are
the
assignments
of
roles
and
responsibiliJes,
provision
for
risk
management
acJviJes
in
the
budget
and
schedule,
and
categories
of
risk,
which
are
someJmes
expressed
as
a
risk
breakdown
structure
2. Cost
Management
Plan
– provides
processes
and
controls
that
can
be
used
to
help
idenJfy
risks
across
the
project.
3. Schedule
Management
Plan
– provides
insight
to
project
Jme/schedule
objecJves
and
expectaJons
which
may
be
impacted
by
risks
(known
and
unknown).
4. Quality
Management
Plan
– provides
a
baseline
of
quality
measures
and
metrics
for
use
in
idenJfying
risks.
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13. Inputs(2/3)
5. Human
Resource
Management
Plan
– provides
guidance
on
how
project
human
resources
should
be
defined,
staffed,
managed,
and
eventually
released.
6.
Scope
Baseline
– uncertainty
in
project
assumpJons
should
be
evaluated
as
potenJal
causes
of
project
risk.
– the
WBS
is
a
criJcal
input
to
idenJfying
risks
as
it
facilitates
an
understanding
of
the
potenJal
risks
at
both
the
micro
and
macro
levels.
Risks
can
be
idenJfied
and
subsequently
tracked
at
summary,
control
account,
and/or
work
package
levels.
7. AcJvity
Cost
EsJmates
– acJvity
cost
esJmate
reviews
are
useful
in
idenJfying
risks
8. AcJvity
DuraJon
EsJmates
– acJvity
duraJon
esJmate
reviews
are
useful
in
idenJfying
risks
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14. Inputs(3/3)
9. Stakeholder
Register
– ensure
that
key
stakeholders,
especially
the
stakeholder,
sponsor,
and
customer
are
interviewed
or
otherwise
parJcipate
during
the
IdenJfy
Risks
process
10. Project
Documents
– include
project
charter,
project
schedule,
schedule
network
diagrams,
issue
log,
quality
checklist,
and
other
informaJon
proven
to
be
valuable
in
idenJfying
risks.
11. Procurement
Documents
– the
complexity
and
the
level
of
detail
of
the
procurement
documents
should
be
consistent
with
the
value
of,
and
risks
associated
with,
planned
procurement.
12. Enterprise
Environmental
Factors
– include
published
informaJon,
including
commercial
databases,
academic
studies,
published
checklists,
benchmarking,
industry
studies,
and
risk
aetudes.
13. OrganizaJonal
Process
Assets
– include
project
files,
including
actual
data,
organizaJonal
and
project
process
controls,
risk
statement
formats
or
templates,
and
lessons
learned.
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15. Tools
and
techniques(1/2)
1. DocumentaJon
Reviews
– The
quality
of
the
plans,
as
well
as
consistency
between
those
plans
and
the
project
requirements
and
assumpJons,
may
be
indicators
of
risk
in
the
project.
2. InformaJon
Gathering
Techniques
– Include
brainstorming,
Delphi
technique,
Interviewing,
Root
cause
analysis.
3. Checklist
Analysis
– are
developed
based
on
historical
informaJon
and
knowledge
that
has
been
accumulated
from
previous
similar
projects
and
from
other
sources
of
informaJon.
The
lowest
level
of
the
RBS
can
also
be
used
as
a
risk
checklist.
4. AssumpJons
Analysis
– Every
project
and
its
plan
is
conceived
and
developed
based
on
a
set
of
hypotheses,
scenarios,
or
assumpJons.
AssumpJons
analysis
explores
the
validity
of
assumpJons
as
they
apply
to
the
project.
It
idenJfies
risks
to
the
project
from
inaccuracy,
instability,
inconsistency,
or
incompleteness
of
assumpJons.
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16. Tools
and
techniques(2/2)
5. Diagramming
Techniques
– Include
Cause
and
effect
diagrams,
System
or
process
flow
charts,
Influence
diagrams.
(details
at
next
slides)
6. SWOT
Analysis
– examines
the
project
from
each
of
the
strengths,
weaknesses,
opportuniJes,
and
threats
(SWOT)
perspecJves
to
increase
the
breadth
of
idenJfied
risks
by
including
internally
generated
risks
7. Expert
Judgment
– Risks
may
be
idenJfied
directly
by
experts
with
relevant
experience
with
similar
projects
or
business
areas.
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17. Root-­‐cause
analysis
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18. Influence
diagram
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19. Outputs
1. Risk
Register
– List
of
idenJfied
risks:
• A
structure
for
describing
risks
using
risk
statements
may
be
applied,
for
example,
EVENT
may
occur
causing
IMPACT,
or
If
CAUSE
exists,
EVENT
may
occur
leading
to
EFFECT.
• In
addiJon
to
the
list
of
idenJfied
risks,
the
root
causes
of
those
risks
may
become
more
evident.
– List
of
potenJal
responses
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20. Perform
qualitaJve
risk
analysis
• The
process
of
prioriJzing
risks
for
further
analysis
or
acJon
by
assessing
and
combining
their
probability
of
occurrence
and
impact.
The
key
benefit
of
this
process
is
that
it
enables
project
managers
to
reduce
the
level
of
uncertainty
and
to
focus
on
high-­‐priority
risks.
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Mamagement
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A
Guide
to
the
Project
Management
Body
of
Knowledge,
FiEh
Edi9on
(PMBOK®
Guide)
©2013
Project
Management
Ins9tute,
Inc.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Figure
11-­‐8
Page
328.

21. Inputs
1. Risk
Management
Plan
– Analysis
process
include
roles
and
responsibiliJes
for
conducJng
risk
management,
budgets,
schedule
acJviJes
for
risk
management,
risk
categories,
definiJons
of
probability
and
impact,
the
probability
and
impact
matrix,
and
revised
stakeholders’
risk
tolerances
2. Scope
Baseline
– E.g.
Projects
of
a
common
or
recurrent
type
tend
to
have
more
well-­‐
understood
risks.
Projects
using
state-­‐of-­‐the-­‐art
or
first-­‐of-­‐its-­‐kind
technology,
and
highly
complex
projects,
tend
to
have
more
uncertainty.
3. Risk
Register
– contains
the
informaJon
that
will
be
used
to
assess
and
prioriJze
risks.
4. Enterprise
Environmental
Factors
– include
industry
studies
of
similar
projects
by
risk
specialists,
and
risk
databases
that
may
be
available
from
industry
or
proprietary
sources.
5. OrganizaJonal
Process
Assets
– include
informaJon
on
prior,
similar
completed
projects
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22. Tools
and
techniques
1. Risk
Probability
and
Impact
Assessment
(next
slides)
2. Probability
and
Impact
Matrix
(next
slides)
3. Risk
Data
Quality
Assessment
– assessment
is
a
technique
to
evaluate
the
degree
to
which
the
data
about
risks
is
useful
for
risk
management.
It
involves
examining
the
degree
to
which
the
risk
is
understood
and
the
accuracy,
quality,
reliability,
and
integrity
of
the
data
about
the
risk.
4. Risk
CategorizaJon
– risks
to
the
project
can
be
categorized
by
sources
of
risk
(e.g.,
using
the
RBS),
the
area
of
the
project
affected
(e.g.,
using
the
WBS),
or
other
useful
categories
(e.g.,
project
phase)
to
determine
the
areas
of
the
project
most
exposed
to
the
effects
of
uncertainty.
Risks
can
also
be
categorized
by
common
root
causes.
5. Risk
Urgency
Assessment
– risks
requiring
near-­‐term
responses
may
be
considered
more
urgent
to
address.
Indicators
of
priority
may
include
probability
of
detecJng
the
risk,
Jme
to
affect
a
risk
response,
symptoms
and
warning
signs,
and
the
risk
raJng.
6. Expert
Judgment
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23. Probability
&
impact
matrix
• Risk
Probability:
High:
50
percent
or
higher
(likely);
Medium:
Between
10
and
50
percent
(unlikely);
Low:
10
percent
or
lower
(very
unlikely).
• Risk
Impact:
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
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A
Guide
to
the
Project
Management
Body
of
Knowledge,
FiEh
Edi9on
(PMBOK®
Guide)
©2013
Project
Management
Ins9tute,
Inc.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Table
11-­‐1
Page
318.

24. Probability
&
impact
matrix
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Mamagement
Fundamentals
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A
Guide
to
the
Project
Management
Body
of
Knowledge,
FiEh
Edi9on
(PMBOK®
Guide)
©2013
Project
Management
Ins9tute,
Inc.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Figure
11-­‐10
Page
331.

25. Outputs
1. Project
Documents
Updates
– Risk
register
updates.
• As
new
informaJon
becomes
available
through
the
qualitaJve
risk
assessment,
the
risk
register
is
updated.
• Updates
to
the
risk
register
may
include
assessments
of
probability
and
impacts
for
each
risk,
risk
ranking
or
scores,
risk
urgency
informaJon
or
risk
categorizaJon,
and
a
watch
list
for
low
probability
risks
or
risks
requiring
further
analysis.
– AssumpJons
log
updates.
• As
new
informaJon
becomes
available
through
the
qualitaJve
risk
assessment,
assumpJons
could
change.
• The
assumpJons
log
needs
to
be
revisited
to
accommodate
this
new
informaJon.
AssumpJons
may
be
incorporated
into
the
project
scope
statement
or
in
a
separate
assumpJons
log.
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26. Perform
quanJtaJve
risk
analysis
• The
process
of
numerically
analyzing
the
effect
of
idenJfied
risks
on
overall
project
objecJves.
The
key
benefit
of
this
process
is
that
it
produces
quanJtaJve
risk
informaJon
to
support
decision
making
in
order
to
reduce
project
uncertainty.
This
process
isn’t
applied
for
projects
with
low
complexity,
low
dollar
value.
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Mamagement
Fundamentals
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A
Guide
to
the
Project
Management
Body
of
Knowledge,
FiEh
Edi9on
(PMBOK®
Guide)
©2013
Project
Management
Ins9tute,
Inc.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Figure
11-­‐11
Page
334.

27. Inputs
1. Risk
Management
Plan
– provides
guidelines,
methods,
and
tools
to
be
used
in
quanJtaJve
risk
analysis.
2. Cost
Management
Plan
– provides
guidelines
on
establishing
and
managing
risk
reserves.
3. Schedule
Management
Plan
– plan
provides
guidelines
on
establishing
and
managing
risk
reserves.
4. Risk
Register
– register
is
used
as
a
reference
point
for
performing
quanJtaJve
risk
analysis.
5. Enterprise
Environmental
Factors
– include
industry
studies
of
similar
projects
by
risk
specialists,
and
risk
databases
that
may
be
available
from
industry
or
proprietary
sources.
6. OrganizaJonal
Process
Assets
– include
informaJon
from
prior,
similar
completed
projects.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
27

28. Tools
and
techniques
1. Data
Gathering
and
RepresentaJon
Techniques
– Such
as
interviewing,
probability
distribuJons
(PERT)
2. QuanJtaJve
Risk
Analysis
and
Modeling
Techniques
– Such
as
sensiJvity
analysis,
expected
monetary
value
analysis,
modeling
and
simulaJon
(next
slides)
3. Expert
Judgment
– Expert
judgment
also
comes
into
play
in
the
interpretaJon
of
the
data.
Experts
should
be
able
to
idenJfy
the
weaknesses
of
the
tools
as
well
as
their
strengths.
Experts
may
determine
when
a
specific
tool
may
or
may
not
be
more
appropriate
given
the
organizaJon’s
capabiliJes
and
culture.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
28

29. Decision
Tree
and
EMV
• EVM used with Decision Tree to choose between
many alternative which take into account the future
events
• Example:
[ ]∑ ×= (Impact)ty)(ProbabiliEVM
Example
Source:
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
29

30. SensiJvity
Analysis
• To determine which risks have the most potential impact to the project
• Changing one or more elements/variables and set other elements to its
baseline then see the impact.
• One typical display of sensitivity analysis is the tornado diagram
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
30

31. Modeling
and
simulaJon
A
Guide
to
the
Project
Management
B o d y
o f
Knowledge,
FiEh
Edi9on
( P M B O K ®
G u i d e )
© 2 0 1 3
P r o j e c t
Management
Ins9tute,
Inc.
A l l
R i g h t s
Reserved.
Figure
11-­‐17
Page
340.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
31

32. Outputs
1. Project
Documents
Updates
– ProbabilisJc
analysis
of
the
project:
EsJmates
are
made
of
potenJal
project
schedule
and
cost
outcomes
lisJng
the
possible
compleJon
dates
and
costs
with
their
associated
confidence
levels.
– Probability
of
achieving
cost
and
Jme
objecJves:
For
instance,
in
Figure
11-­‐17,
the
likelihood
of
achieving
the
cost
esJmate
of
US$41
million
is
about
12%
– PrioriJzed
list
of
quanJfied
risks
– Trends
in
quanJtaJve
risk
analysis
results:
As
the
analysis
is
repeated,
a
trend
may
become
apparent
that
leads
to
conclusions
affecJng
risk
responses
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
32

33. Plan
risk
response
• The
process
of
developing
opJons
and
acJons
to
enhance
opportuniJes
and
to
reduce
threats
to
project
objecJves.
The
key
benefit
of
this
process
is
that
it
addresses
the
risks
by
their
priority,
inserJng
resources
and
acJviJes
into
the
budget,
schedule
and
project
management
plan
as
needed.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
33
A
Guide
to
the
Project
Management
Body
of
Knowledge,
FiEh
Edi9on
(PMBOK®
Guide)
©2013
Project
Management
Ins9tute,
Inc.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Figure
11-­‐18
Page
342.

34. Inputs
1. Risk
Management
Plan
– include
roles
and
responsibiliJes,
risk
analysis
definiJons,
Jming
for
reviews
(and
for
eliminaJng
risks
from
review),
and
risk
thresholds
for
low,
moderate,
and
high
risks.
Risk
thresholds
help
idenJfy
those
risks
for
which
specific
responses
are
needed.
2. Risk
Register
– refers
to
idenJfied
risks,
root
causes
of
risks,
lists
of
potenJal
responses,
risk
owners,
symptoms
and
warning
signs,
the
relaJve
raJng
or
priority
list
of
project
risks,
risks
requiring
responses
in
the
near
term,
risks
for
addiJonal
analysis
and
response,
trends
in
qualitaJve
analysis
results,
and
a
watch
list,
which
is
a
list
of
low-­‐
priority
risks
within
the
risk
register.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
34

35. Tools
and
techniques
(1/3)
1.
Strategies
for
NegaJve
Risk
or
Threats:
– Avoid:
Eliminate
the
threat
enJrely,
isolate
project
objecJves
from
the
risk’s
impact.
– Transfer
(Deflect,
Allocate):
shiV
some
or
all
the
negaJve
impact
of
a
threat
to
a
third
party
– MiJgate:
implies
a
reducJon
in
the
probability
and/or
impact
of
an
adverse
risk
event
to
be
within
acceptable
threshold
limits
– Accept:
deal
with
the
risks,
project
management
plan
is
not
changed
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
35

36. Tools
and
techniques
(2/3)
2.
Strategies
for
PosiJve
Risks
or
OpportuniJes:
– Exploit:
seek
to
ensure
the
opportuniJes
definitely
happen
– Share:
allocate
some
or
all
of
the
ownership
of
the
opportunity
to
a
third
party
who
is
best
able
to
capture
the
opportunity
for
the
project
benefit.
– Enhance:
increase
the
probability
and/or
the
posiJve
impacts
of
an
opportunity.
– Accept:
not
acJvely
pursuing
an
opportunity
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
36

37. Tools
and
techniques(3/3)
3. ConJngent
Response
Strategies
– contain
events
that
trigger
the
conJngency
response,
such
as
missing
intermediate
milestones
or
gaining
higher
priority
with
a
supplier,
should
be
defined
and
tracked.
Risk
responses
idenJfied
using
this
technique
are
oVen
called
conJngency
plans
or
fallback
plans
and
include
idenJfied
triggering
events
that
set
the
plans
in
effect.
4. Expert
Judgment
– is
input
from
knowledgeable
parJes
pertaining
to
the
acJons
to
be
taken
on
a
specific
and
defined
risk.
ExperJse
may
be
provided
by
any
group
or
person
with
specialized
educaJon,
knowledge,
skill,
experience,
or
training
in
establishing
risk
responses.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
37

38. Outputs(1/2)
• Project
Management
Plan
Updates
Include
schedule
management
plan,
cost
management
plan,
quality
management
plan,
procurement
management
plan,
human
resource
management
plan,
scope
baseline,
schedule
baseline,
cost
baseline.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
38

39. Outputs
(2/2)
• Project
Documents
Updates
– Update
to
risk
register
• Risk
owners
and
assigned
responsibiliJes;
• Agreed-­‐upon
response
strategies;
• Specific
acJons
to
implement
the
chosen
response
strategy;
• Trigger
condiJons,
symptoms,
and
warning
signs
of
a
risk
occurrence;
• Budget
and
schedule
acJviJes
required
to
implement
the
chosen
responses;
• ConJngency
plans
and
triggers
that
call
for
their
execuJon;
• Fallback
plans
for
use
as
a
reacJon
to
a
risk
that
has
occurred
and
the
primary
response
proves
to
be
inadequate;
• Residual
risks
that
are
expected
to
remain
aVer
planned
responses
have
been
taken,
as
well
as
those
that
have
been
deliberately
accepted;
• Secondary
risks
that
arise
as
a
direct
outcome
of
implemenJng
a
risk
response;
and
• ConJngency
reserves
that
are
calculated
based
on
the
quanJtaJve
risk
analysis
of
the
project
and
the
organizaJon’s
risk
thresholds.
– Other
updates:
assumpJons
log
updates,
technical
documentaJon
updates,
change
requests
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
39

40. Control
risks
• The
process
of
implemenJng
risk
response
plans,
tracking
idenJfied
risks,
monitoring
residual
risks,
idenJfying
new
risks,
and
evaluaJng
risk
process
effecJveness
throughout
the
project.
The
key
benefit
of
this
process
is
that
it
improves
efficiency
of
the
risk
approach
throughout
the
project
life
cycle
to
conJnuously
opJmize
risk
responses.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
40
A
Guide
to
the
Project
Management
Body
of
Knowledge,
FiEh
Edi9on
(PMBOK®
Guide)
©2013
Project
Management
Ins9tute,
Inc.
All
Rights
Reserved.
Figure
10-­‐20
Page
349.

41. Inputs
1. Project
Management
Plan
– includes
the
risk
management
plan,
provides
guidance
for
risk
monitoring
and
controlling.
2. Risk
Register
– has
key
inputs
that
include
idenJfied
risks
and
risk
owners,
agreed-­‐upon
risk
responses,
control
acJons
for
assessing
the
effecJveness
of
response
plans,
risk
responses,
specific
implementaJon
acJons,
symptoms
and
warning
signs
of
risk,
residual
and
secondary
risks,
a
watch
list
of
low-­‐
priority
risks,
and
the
Jme
and
cost
conJngency
reserves
3. Work
Performance
Data
– deliverable
status,
schedule
progress,
and
costs
incurred
4. Work
Performance
Reports
– take
informaJon
from
performance
measurements
and
analyze
it
to
provide
project
work
performance
informaJon
including
variance
analysis,
earned
value
data,
and
forecasJng
data.
These
data
points
could
be
impacsul
in
controlling
performance
related
risks.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
41

42. Tools
and
techniques
1. Risk
Reassessment
– oVen
results
in
idenJficaJon
of
new
risks,
reassessment
of
current
risks,
and
the
closing
of
risks
that
are
outdated.
Risk
reassessments
should
be
regularly
scheduled
2. Risk
Audits
– examine
and
document
the
effecJveness
of
risk
responses
in
dealing
with
idenJfied
risks
and
their
root
causes,
as
well
as
the
effecJveness
of
the
risk
management
process.
3. Variance
and
Trend
Analysis
4. Technical
Performance
Measurement
– compares
technical
accomplishments
during
project
execuJon
to
the
schedule
of
technical
achievement.
Such
technical
performance
measures
may
include
weight,
transacJon
Jmes,
number
of
delivered
defects,
storage
capacity,
etc.
DeviaJon,
such
as
demonstraJng
more
or
less
funcJonality
than
planned
at
a
milestone,
can
help
to
forecast
the
degree
of
success
in
achieving
the
project’s
scope.
5. Reserve
Analysis
– compares
the
amount
of
the
conJngency
reserves
remaining
to
the
amount
of
risk
remaining
at
any
Jme
in
the
project
in
order
to
determine
if
the
remaining
reserve
is
adequate.
6. MeeJngs
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
42

43. Outputs
1. Work
Performance
InformaJon
2. Change
Requests
– ImplemenJng
conJngency
plans
or
workarounds
someJmes
results
in
a
change
request.
It
includes
recommended
correcJve
acJons,
recommended
prevenJve
acJons
3. Project
Management
Plan
Updates
4. Project
Documents
Updates
– outcomes
of
risk
reassessments,
risk
audits,
and
periodic
risk
reviews.
5. Actual
outcomes
of
the
project’s
risks
and
of
the
risk
responses
6. OrganizaJonal
Process
Assets
Updates
– include
templates
for
the
risk
management
plan,
including
the
probability
and
impact
matrix
and
risk
register;
risk
breakdown
structure;
and
lessons
learned
from
the
project
risk
management
acJviJes.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
43

44. Summary
IdenJfy
Risk
• Input:
uncertainJes
• Output:
risk
register
QualitaJve/
QuanJtaJve
Analysis
• Input:
risk
register
• Output:
updated
risk
register,
watch-­‐list
Plan
Risk
Response
• Input:
risk
register
• Output:
conJngency
plan,
fallback
plan,
residual
risk,
secondary
risk
Control
Risk
• Input:
risk
register
• Output:
workaround,
correcJve
acJons,
prevenJve
acJons
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
44

45. Summary
• Watch
list,
residual
risk,
secondary
risk,
fallback
plan,
conJngency
plan,
conJngency
reserve,
workarounds.
• 4
response
strategies
for
threads.
• 4
response
strategies
for
opportunity.
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
45

46. QuesJons
for
review
Copyright@STEVBROS
Project
Mamagement
Fundamentals
46
• You
did
the
good
job
at
this
chapter.
Please
complete
quesJons
for
review
before
moving
to
next
chapter.