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Presentation done by Elizabeth Waelbroeck Rocha
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© BIPE 2010 December
2, 2010 Challenges from the environment and their effect on clusters Élisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha Partner & Vice President, BIPE
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2© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Challenges from the environment and their effect on clusters This powerpoint document constitutes the visual support of the presentation made at the TCI Annual Conference in Delhi, in December 2010. It cannot be quoted.
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3© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Four main drivers will impact the future of clusters Demography
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4© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Four main drivers will impact the future of clusters Demography Economy
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5© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Four main drivers will impact the future of clusters Demography Technology Economy
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6© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Four main drivers will impact the future of clusters Demography Environment Technology Economy
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7© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 These four drivers are interdependent Demography Environment Technology Economy
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8© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 1. Demography, not only the economy, will change the way businesses operate Demographic growth is highly variable across regions Continued urbanisation Reduced household size Ageing Demography Environment Technology Economy -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Europe Northern America Africa Asia Latin America Oceania 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 Change in population size, in millions
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9© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 By 2050, North America and Europe will merely represent 12,5% of the world’s population (down from 17% in 2000) 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Latin America Asia Africa Oceania Northern America Europe 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Latin America Asia Africa Oceania Northern America Europe
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10© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Urbanisation will continue: this causes specific problems that have to be dealt with By 2020, 60 cities will have more than 5 million inhabitants, and 13 will have more than 10 million Source : ONU – World Urbanization Prospects Cities with more than 10 million inhabitants Cities with more than 5 million inhabitants
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11© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Other consequences of these demographic developments include: Ageing in Europe, and a reduction in the population of working age, unless migration flows break from past trends Strong rise in demand for food products, concentrated in certain regions that do not all have a high agricultural growth potential – or whose potential will be curtailed by climate change Strong rise in energy consumption 4 For heating and cooking 4 For lighting 4 For transportation Ever increasing demand for clean water
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12© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 2. On the economic front, the recent crisis will have long lasting effects on the world economy Volatility is there to stay Diversification strategies of companies Emphasis on flexibility Reduced role of government Demography Environment Technology Economy Risks of bubbles Risk aversion / difficult access to financing for SMEs Continued strong competition Business cycles will be deeper, creating market disruptions
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13© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Why volatility ? A result of: 4The massive externalisation strategies — Production / delivery volumes can be adjusted at short notice 4Zero stock policies 4The strategies of dominant players on resources markets — Dual markets will emerge, characterized by different prices depending on the client … 4Reduced government’ capacity to offset turnarounds in business cycles
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14© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 2. On the economic front, the recent crisis will have long lasting effects on the world economy Volatility is there to stay Diversification strategies of companies Emphasis on flexibility Reduced role of government Demography Environment Technology Economy Risks of bubbles Risk aversion / difficult access to financing for SMEs Continued strong competition Business cycles will be deeper, creating market disruptions
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15© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Demographic developments will impact the economy Demography Environment Technology Economy Development of complex markets Growth in services sectors è In addition to the above changes, there will be growing opposition between mature / growing markets
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- December 2, 2010 3. On the technology front, several breakthrough innovations could change the way we work, produce and consume New promising fields: Biotechnologies Nanotechnologies Vehicle propulsion Laser and optics Etc … Demography Environment Technology Economy
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- December 2, 2010 The speed of change is evolving. Product innovation cycles are shorter and deeper We are in a process innovation phase, with low product innovation Product cycles 2010 ? Demography Environment Technology Economy Process cycles
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- December 2, 2010 Demographic changes and the economy also impact the future of technology – and vice versa Demography Environment Technology Economy Innovation = new players new processes
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19© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 4. Environmental changes are underway New scarce resources: Raw materials, energy Food Space Time Silence / quietness Darkness in urban areas (clean) Water Privacy Comfort Demography Environment Technology Economy People will accept to pay higher prices to have access to the scarce resources This will change the relative price of goods / services
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20© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Demographic changes are speeding up changes in the environment Demography Environment Technology Economy Anthropic pressures on environment
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21© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Between 2010 and 2030, world primary energy demand will grow by more than 40% Source: IEA Energy Outlook 2010 Source: IEA Energy Outlook 2010
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- December 2, 2010 Given the oil peak, coal fired electricity generation will have to grow – with major consequences on the environment – not on prices Source: IEA Energy Outlook 2010
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- December 2, 2010 Greenhouse gas emissions accelerate climate change and will have a major impact on agriculture Source: European Commission, PESETA model results Changes in average mean precipitation and temperature between 2011-2040, from the 1961-1990 period
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- December 2, 2010 Again, economic factors and changes in the environment are linked Demography Environment Technology Economy Anthropic pressures on environment
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- December 2, 2010 The same holds for technology Demography Environment Technology Economy Anthropic pressures on environment Efficiency search
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- December 2, 2010 Impact on clusters — Urbanisation — Development of scarcity — Emergence of complex markets — Reduced role of government — Increased competition, low price — Localized pressures on resources — Cost increases — Internalization of external costs — Change in values — New value chains, defined by market rather than by product — Increased delegation, development of PPP — New business models, new price setting mechanisms 4Change in the firms’ scope of activity, development of multiproduct companies
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27© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Impact on clusters — Urbanisation — Development of scarcity — Emergence of complex markets — Reduced role of government — Increased competition, low price — Localized pressures on resources — Cost increases — Internalization of external costs — Change in values — New business models, new pricing schemes — New value chains, defined by market rather than by product — Increased delegation, development of PPP — New business models, new price setting mechanisms 4Change in the firms’ scope of activity, development of multiproduct companies — Location of clusters — Ressouce efficiency of clusters — Scarcity niches develop before scarcity spreads throughout the economy — New borders of clusters — New stakeholders in cluster — Relocation closer to end client
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- December 2, 2010 Impact on clusters —Production starts after orders have been confirmed / paid —Increasingly customized products —Co-conception, value chains built from the end-market upwards, starting from the recycling stage —Increasingly difficult financing of SMEs —Zero stocks —Need to reduce delivery time —Involvement of the final consumer in the value chain —Innovation in financial engineering —New stakeholders in cluster, new cluster frontiers
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29© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Impact on clusters — Zero stocks — Need to reduce delivery time — Involvement of the final consumer in the value chain — Innovation in financial engineering — Internalization of external costs — Change in values — New business models, new pricing schemes — Process optimisation — Relocation — Cluster = living lab — Innovation zones — New stakeholders in cluster — New frontiers for clusters — Production starts after orders have been confirmed / paid — Increasingly customized products — Co-conception, value chains built from the end-market upwards, starting from the recycling stage — Increasingly difficult financing of SMEs
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30© BIPE 2010
- December 2, 2010 Consequences for cluster initiatives and cluster managers Need to internalize environmental issues: 4 Take into account local conditions (assets and weaknesses) 4 Pay attention to the location of activities / relocate ? 4 Adapt the cluster and companies’ organisation 4 Choice of process 4 Choice of market (Continuously) Review the cluster’s frontiers 4 Broaden the scope ? 4 Prepare the « transformation » stage in the cluster life cycle 4 Focus on services ?
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- December 2, 2010 Consequences for cluster initiatives Review the clusters’ stakeholders 4 Open to new players of tomorrow (insurance, etc.) 4 Review the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders in clusters — Means of governments / regions will shrink — è find new leaders for the initiatives Interact with individual consumers 4 Reach outside the cluster to the final consumer – wherever he/she is – in order to adapt to permanently evolving customer needs 4 Use local residents to create living labs
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