Monthly index of consumer sentiment in relation to economic recovery.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
September Index Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
Timing Recovery
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs All recessions end in recovery – so will
this one
The biggest forecasting challenge is
timing: when do we know the recession
is over and recovery has started?
Amárach Research has developed the
Economic Recovery Index to help us
track the economic cycle more closely
This report summarises the ERI results
for April to September 2009
The July fieldwork was conducted on
21st-25th September inclusive
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

3. 3
A Matter of Measurement
Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults online and ask them
to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
September has seen the strongest ERI score since April: as many people
think the worst is over as think it’s still getting worse
April 0% September 0%
April 1% September 1%
April 77% September 50%
50%
April 8% September 21%
21%
April 14%
14% September 27%
27%
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

5. Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the survey we have created the Economic Recovery Index,
which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak)
The ERI has improved strongly through August and September, recovering all of
the ground lost in June-July
2009 ERI Score
0 100
April 8.3
April
May 16.3
May Sept
June 17.8
June July 15.0
July August August 17.0
Amárach Research
September 18.4 Economic Recovery Index

6. 6
Other Sentiment Indicators from ERI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: August and September 2009
Ireland will be through the I am optimistic in spite of The recession is
worst of the recession the current economic affecting other people
in 12 months time situation more than it is affecting
46% me
62%
43% 61%
60% 60%
August September August September August September
I feel financially I am more relaxed about Now is a good time for
comfortable enough to spending money than I young people to buy their
make it through the was a few months ago first home
recession
18%
48% 48% 55% 55%
16%
August September August September August September
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

7. 7
Mood of the Nation
Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?
August and September 2009
60% 61%
55%
52%
47% 47%
37% 39%
23% 22%
18% 18% 19%
15%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry Sadness Physical Anger
Pain
August September
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

8. 8
Insights & Implications
Sometimes you know you have passed a
significant milestone when you see it in the
rear view mirror: so have we just passed one
when equal proportions of the population feel
the recession is getting worse as feel it is no
longer getting worse?
We have also seen an upward shift in the
percentage agreeing they are ‘more relaxed
about spending money’ for the first time – one
sign of potential improvement in consumer
markets
Also, despite the continuing uncertainty on the
domestic and international economic fronts,
the people of Ireland continue to enjoy more
happiness and enjoyment than stress and
sadness – perhaps we’re ready for some good
news after all?
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

9. 9
About Amárach
Amárach Research is a full service
market research agency
The questions for the Economic
Recovery Index are run on our monthly
online omnibus survey of 1,000 adults
Keep up with Amárach’s thinking by
subscribing to our free fortnightly ezine:
Consumer Foresight
More information at:
www.amarach.com
Check out our blog here:
www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index

10. 10
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Bernadette Coyne – Managing Director
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
bernadette.coyne@amarach.com
W. www.amarach.com
B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com
Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index