2015 has got off to a modest but optimistic start for Ireland's hard-pressed consumers.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
January 2015
Includes additional analyses by:
main bank, mobile network, supermarket, electricity provider
© Amárach Research

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
A Modest Start
Our first edition of the Economic Recovery
Index for 2015 shows a continuing plateau in
overall consumer sentiment about their own
personal circumstances and prospects for the
wider economy.
As before, we have added in a more detailed
analysis this month showing differences in
outlook among customers of the main banks,
supermarkets, mobile phone networks and
electricity suppliers to help you plan for 2015.
But it is only the start of the year, and January
is a month we look ahead rather than look
around, so we can anticipate further changes
in mood, intentions and behaviours in the
months ahead.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over five years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
January 2015.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 14th to 22nd January 2015 inclusive.
See how bad it was five years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amrach-recovery-indicator-january-2010

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index seems to have reached a plateau since late Q4 2014:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Apr'09
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'10
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'11
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'12
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'13
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'14
Mar
May
July
Sept
Nov
Jan'15
the ERI remains flat going into 2015…

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Dec ’14: 16% Jan ’15: 17%
Dec ’14: 31% Jan ’15: 29%
Dec ’14: 38% Jan ’15: 38%
Dec ’14: 13% Jan ’15: 16%
Dec ’14: 1% Jan ’15: 1%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
A solid majority of Irish people still continues to say that the economy is improving:

7. 7Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Jan-10 32 34 31 3 0 27.1
Jan-11 56 23 18 2 1 17.3
Jan-12 58 24 16 2 0 15.4
Jan-13 45 30 21 3 0 20.9
Jan-14 20 36 34 9 0 33.3
Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9
Jan-15 17 29 38 16 1 38.5
the ERI is almost back to its late 2014 peak…

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
(by sex, age, Dublin, class)
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
January 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 167 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
The economic situation
in Ireland is getting
worse
16% 17% 15% 10% 16% 18% 19% 17% 14% 14% 18%
The economic situation
is bad but has stabilized
27% 30% 24% 28% 30% 27% 31% 23% 26% 26% 28%
The economic situation
is bad but showing a
few signs of
improvement
35% 30% 41% 33% 34% 32% 39% 38% 36% 34% 36%
The economic situation
is getting better and
showing clear signs of
improvement
15% 17% 13% 13% 13% 18% 8% 20% 17% 19% 11%
The economic situation
is good and almost fully
recovered from the
recession
1% 1% * 1% 1% 0 1% 0 * 1% *
ERI Score 38.5 38.2 38.8 36.8 37.2 38.1 36.9 42.0 40.0 41.3 36.1
Some Progress – I

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Some Progress – II
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
(by main bank, mobile network, supermarket, electricity provider)
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
January 2015 TOTAL AIB
Bank of
Ireland
Voda
fone
Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi
Electric
Ireland
Airtricity
1000 350 279 333 162 117 302 166 247 516 197
The economic situation
in Ireland is getting
worse
16% 17% 12% 14% 9% 19% 14% 16% 18% 18% 17%
The economic situation
is bad but has stabilized
27% 26% 31% 24% 34% 33% 27% 26% 28% 29% 24%
The economic situation
is bad but showing a
few signs of
improvement
35% 34% 37% 42% 37% 27% 37% 34% 39% 33% 40%
The economic situation
is getting better and
showing clear signs of
improvement
15% 18% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 17% 12% 15% 17%
The economic situation
is good and almost fully
recovered from the
recession
1% * 1% 1% 0 0 1% 1% * 1% *
ERI Score 38.5 39.5 41.2 41.1 40.3 33.8 38.3 38.9 38.4 38.5 41.2

10. Consumer Impact

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Jan-10 52 50 61 55
Jan-11 26 39 48 49
Jan-12 21 37 45 46
Jan-13 32 40 47 47
Jan-14 41 44 53 46
Dec-14 40 42 52 43
Jan-15 38 40 50 40
fewer people feel immune from the recession…

12. 12Economic Recovery Index
Modest Optimists – I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):
“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
January 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 167 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 14% 15% 13% 16% 12% 11% 12% 16% 13% 18% 10%
Slightly Agree 36% 36% 36% 30% 39% 34% 35% 40% 33% 40% 32%
Neither/Nor 20% 21% 20% 22% 22% 23% 21% 16% 22% 18% 23%
Slightly Disagree 13% 12% 14% 17% 12% 14% 15% 11% 16% 12% 14%
Strongly Disagree 13% 15% 12% 8% 12% 15% 15% 17% 13% 9% 17%

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
Modest Optimists – II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank etc):
“I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation”
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
January 2015 TOTAL AIB
Bank of
Ireland
Voda
fone
Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi
Electric
Ireland
Airtricity
1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222
Strongly Agree 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 10% 13% 17% 10% 11% 13%
Slightly Agree 30% 32% 34% 30% 25% 35% 33% 32% 27% 32% 31%
Neither/Nor 16% 18% 12% 17% 18% 18% 16% 13% 19% 15% 19%
Slightly Disagree 21% 22% 23% 21% 26% 18% 22% 18% 24% 21% 19%
Strongly Disagree 18% 15% 15% 19% 16% 18% 14% 15% 17% 18% 17%

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Jan-10 21 26 60 29
Jan-11 13 22 59 22
Jan-12 14 24 57 24
Jan-13 22 27 57 27
Jan-14 23 25 57 24
Dec-14 26 23 55 23
Jan-15 25 23 54 26
there has been a recovery in % willing to borrow

15. 15Economic Recovery Index
Happy Borrowers – I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I needed to”
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
January 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 167 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 9% 12% 6% 8% 10% 11% 8% 8% 10% 11% 7%
Slightly Agree 17% 20% 14% 18% 21% 18% 15% 14% 16% 20% 14%
Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 14% 18% 14% 15% 12% 14% 15% 14%
Slightly Disagree 19% 16% 23% 22% 18% 20% 20% 18% 18% 22% 18%
Strongly Disagree 33% 29% 38% 26% 27% 30% 39% 41% 35% 27% 39%

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
Happy Borrowers – II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I needed to”
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
January 2015 TOTAL AIB
Bank of
Ireland
Voda
fone
Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi
Electric
Ireland
Airtricity
Weighted Sample 350 279 333 162 117 302 166 247 516 197 350
Strongly Agree 9% 10% 8% 6% 8% 11% 8% 9% 10% 12% 9%
Slightly Agree 16% 17% 20% 12% 18% 20% 13% 17% 16% 20% 16%
Neither/Nor 18% 14% 15% 14% 17% 16% 13% 13% 13% 12% 18%
Slightly Disagree 19% 22% 20% 24% 17% 15% 26% 19% 21% 23% 19%
Strongly Disagree 31% 29% 31% 36% 32% 29% 36% 38% 36% 27% 31%

17. Mood of the Nation

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2015
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

19. 19Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2015
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

20. 20Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
January 2015 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1000 494 506 167 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Enjoyment 49% 48% 51% 52% 42% 41% 50% 59% 51% 52% 46%
Happiness 49% 44% 53% 55% 47% 46% 47% 51% 46% 51% 47%
Stress 39% 34% 43% 46% 38% 40% 35% 35% 40% 38% 39%
Worry 35% 33% 38% 36% 37% 43% 38% 26% 34% 33% 38%
Boredom 26% 27% 26% 40% 35% 22% 19% 18% 20% 25% 28%
Anxiety 25% 22% 28% 34% 25% 28% 27% 16% 25% 27% 23%
Physical Pain 22% 22% 23% 17% 19% 20% 26% 28% 23% 20% 25%
Sadness 19% 16% 22% 25% 20% 18% 18% 16% 18% 18% 20%
Loneliness 14% 12% 15% 17% 18% 10% 12% 11% 13% 13% 14%
Anger 13% 14% 11% 15% 16% 17% 11% 7% 12% 12% 14%
Fear 9% 7% 11% 16% 10% 10% 7% 5% 7% 10% 9%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

21. 21Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – IV
Source: Amárach Research, January 2015
January 2015 TOTAL AIB
Bank of
Ireland
Voda
fone
Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi
Electric
Ireland
Airtricity
1000 350 279 333 162 117 302 166 247 516 197
Enjoyment 49% 51% 49% 47% 52% 49% 45% 48% 53% 52% 46%
Happiness 49% 47% 51% 47% 57% 44% 50% 44% 49% 50% 48%
Stress 39% 37% 39% 41% 39% 37% 36% 40% 42% 36% 44%
Worry 35% 34% 34% 35% 31% 41% 34% 33% 41% 34% 32%
Boredom 26% 29% 27% 28% 23% 33% 26% 29% 30% 25% 26%
Anxiety 25% 24% 26% 25% 24% 27% 24% 29% 25% 22% 29%
Physical Pain 22% 23% 25% 21% 22% 19% 24% 18% 23% 24% 23%
Sadness 19% 18% 18% 19% 20% 20% 20% 22% 20% 19% 24%
Loneliness 14% 16% 13% 13% 12% 18% 14% 12% 13% 14% 14%
Anger 13% 14% 11% 14% 11% 12% 11% 13% 16% 12% 11%
Fear 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% 10% 8% 9% 11% 8% 7%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:

22. Amárach Outlook

23. 23Economic Recovery Index
Only the beginning…
Our survey at the start of 2015 finds Irish
consumers thinking optimistically but
behaving cautiously.
Gradually some are looking to spend and
borrow, though paying down debt remains a
priority (and will do for some time to come).
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2015.
For more on the ERI see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

24. we ask better questions
so you get better answers
Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/

25. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/