A survey of 1,000 Irish people every month about their views on the economy, their spending and savings plans, and their emotional well being.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
October 2011 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
The Emotional Recovery
• We have been reporting our monthly
Recovery Indicator since April 2009.
• We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery
alongside our ‘economic progress’.
• Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
• But we are still in recession – and the path to
recovery still lies some way ahead.
• We will help you along that path.

3. 3
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery –
so will this one.
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely.
• This report summarises the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator results from April 2009
(when it began) to October 2011.
• The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 10th-16th October 2011 inclusive.

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

5. 5
A Matter of Measurement
• October 2011 saw a slight month-on-month improvement in perceptions about
the current stage of the country’s economic cycle:
Sept’11 0% Oct’11 0%
Sept’11 1% Oct’11 2%
Sept‘11 48% Oct‘11 42% Sept’11 21% Oct’11 25%
Sept’11 30% Oct’11 31%

6. 6
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100
(0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• In October 2011, the Recovery Indicator continued its recovery from the recent low point in August
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
'09 '10 '11

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52% 42%
41% 43% 39%
48%
41%44% 42%43%46% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42% 28%
34% 31% 23% 26% 24% 25% 24% 23% 26% 24% 26%
26%
26% 18%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Sept
Sept
Sept
Jun
Feb
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Oct
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Jan
Jan
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Aug
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
61% 54% 55%
65% 55% 53%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 48% 47% 49%
47% 48% 48% 47%
55% 54%52% 53% 46% 41% 44%
51% 50% 44%
33%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Sept
Sept
Sept
Jun
Feb
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Oct
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

8. 8
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:
% agree strongly/slightly
50% 47%
45% 45% 41% 41% 39% 37% 36% 39% 40% 39%
48% 48%51% 47%48% 48% 46% 47% 43% 47% 45% 46% 32% 34% 34% 34% 38%
38%
45%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Jun
Sept
Feb
Sept
Feb
Sept
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Oct
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 56% 55%53% 55% 55% 53%
50%
59%
52% 54% 52% 45% 45% 49% 45% 47% 48% 44%
49% 46% 49%
45%
53% 51% 50%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Jun
Sept
Feb
Sept
Feb
Sept
Apr '09
Apr '11
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Oct
Apr'10
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

9. 9
Recovery Outlook 3
The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession
will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly
46% 35% 36%
43% 43% 42% 30%
40% 39% 33% 25% 21% 25%
35% 28% 27% 17% 20% 16% 16% 15%
18% 20% 11%
14%
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Oct '09
Feb
Sept
Feb
Sept
Apr '10
Apr '11
Mar
Oct
Mar
Oct
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan
I am less worried about losing my job than I was before:
% agree strongly/slightly
22% 21% 22% 21% 18%
23% 20% 21% 21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 19%
17% 16% 15% 15%
22% 20% 17%
20% 15% 17%
13%
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Oct '09
Feb
Sept
Feb
Sept
Apr '11
Mar
Oct
Mar
Oct
Apr'10
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

10. 10
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: October 2009, 2010, 2011 & September 2011
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving
32%
•Debt 16% 15% 14% 14%
25% 23% 22%
•Borrowing
Oct'09 Oct'10 Sept'11 Oct'11 Oct'09 Oct'10 Sept'11 Oct'11
Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to
main financial priority I would be happy to buy a house for those
borrow from a bank if I who want to
61% need to
59% 59% 54% 63%
62% 57% 59%
33% 27% 23% 23%
Oct'09 Oct'10 Sept'11 Oct'11 Oct'09 Oct'10 Sept'11 Oct'11 Oct'09 Oct'10 Sept'11 Oct'11

11. 11
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to October 2011
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
Feb
Feb
Oct
Oct
Oct
Jun
Nov
Jan
July
Nov
Jan
July
Dec
Dec
June
June
Apr '09
Aug
Apr '10
Aug
Apr '11
Aug
Sept
Sept
Sept
Jul
May
Mar
Mar
May
May

12. 12
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to October 2011
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Feb
Feb
Jun
Sept
Oct
Sept
Oct
Sept
Oct
Jan
Jan
May
May
May
July
July
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Aug
Aug
Aug
Mar
Mar
Jul
Apr '11
Apr '09
Apr '10
June
June

13. 13
Which Way?
• Our Recovery Indicator continued to recover this
month from its low point in August – and is
currently back to where it was this time last year.
• That said, most of the behavioural and intentional
indicators that we track have changed little – as if
consumers are undecided as to which way to turn.
• One worry is the rise in the negative emotions that
we track in recent months – suggesting that some
consumers may be running out of road.
• Stay tuned to future issues of our Recovery
Indicator to find out which way the Irish consumer
– and the country as a whole – will turn...

14. 14
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill
Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
telephone: (01) 410 5200
email: gerard.oneill@amarach.com
website: www.amarach.com
blog: www.amarach.com/blog
twitter: www.twitter.com/amarachresearch