2. 2
Timing Recovery
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
• All recessions end in recovery – so will this one
• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely
• This report summarises the Recovery
Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began)
to June 2010
• The fieldwork was conducted on 14th to 21st
June 2010
3. 3
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• The general sense in June „10 is a slight uplift on April and May. In June a marginally
greater proportion believe “the situation is bad but has stabilized.”
April’09 0% June’10 1%
April’09 1% June’10 3%
April’09 77% June’10 33% April’09 8% June’10 27%
April’09 14% June’10 36%
5. 5
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges
from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• The Recovery Indicator experienced its strongest monthly surge in January 2010, since
then June represents the most significant uplift evident within 2010.
30
27.1 25.3
25
23.8
23.8
22.7 23.5
20 19.6
17.8 18.4 17.8 18.3
16.3 17
15 15
10
8.3
5
0
Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr '10 May June
6. 6
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52%
41% 43%
44% 42% 43% 46% 48% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42%
34% 41%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
'09 '10
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
55% 51% 51% 61% 54%
57% 59% 65% 58% 60% 62%
55% 54% 52% 53%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
'09 '10
7. 7
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the
recession: % agree strongly/slightly
45% 45% 50%
48% 48% 51% 47% 48% 48% 46% 47% 43% 47% 45% 45%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
'09 '10
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than
it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
56% 55% 53% 55%
62% 61% 60% 56%
59% 61% 60% 52% 53% 51% 50%
Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
'09 '10
8. 8
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: June 2009 and June 2010 (unless otherwise stated)
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving 34%
22% 24%
•Debt 16%
•Borrowing
June'09 June '10 June '09 June '10
# Paying off debts is my # Now is a good time to
main financial priority # I would be happy to buy a house* for those
borrow from a bank if I who want to
61% 61% need to 68%
62%
33% 30%
Oct'09 June '10 Oct '09 June '10 Oct '09 June '10
* „a new house‟ in 2009
# Question first asked in October 2009
9. 9
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to June 2010
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
'09 '10
10. 10
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to June 2010
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
'09 '10
11. 11
AIB Contact Details Amárach Contact Details
Ronan Sheridan Gerard O‟Neill - Chairman
Group Press Officer Amárach Research
AIB 11 Kingswood Business Centre
Bankcentre Citywest Business Campus
Ballsbridge Dublin 24
Dublin 4
T. (01) 410 5200
T. (01) 641 4651 E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
M. 086 388 0898 W. www.amarach.com
B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com
