Strategies for increasing agriculture production

1. Strategies for Agriculture
Development in Pakistan
Shafqat Farooq
Ex-Director (Academic Planning),
PIEAS, Islamabad
CEO: AM AgriCon (SMC-PVT) Ltd, Islamabad

3. Constraints of Agriculture
i. Immense water shortage,
ii. Depletion of soil organic matter and unbalanced plant nutrition
iii. Salinization of originally productive soils
iv. Yield gap
v. Excessive use of environment unfriendly chemicals including
nitrogenous fertilizers and pesticides,
v. Contamination of soil and water with hazardous metals/chemical
vi. Insufficient disease control measures for poultry/animal production
Finding solutions to these constraints
can result in development of
agriculture

4. The indicator of this development
should reflect in GDP growth which
determines how fast the economy
is growing.
Technically, economic growth
means percentage increase or
decrease of GDP compared to the
previous quarter.

5. In the country like Pakistan
where economic development is
largely linked with agricultural
development,
it is essential that the
contribution of agriculture to
GDP should not be less than
50% but as of 2012, it stands at
21.2%.

6. Ayub
Bhutto Zia ul Haq
Benizir/N Shrif
Musharaf
Zardarii

8. Perhaps, we have not been able
to address all, some or key
constraints of agriculture
developmentDuring 2011-2012
Major crops grew at 3.2% GDP growth was 3.7%
while
Overall agriculture grew at
3.17% against the target of
3.4%
Target of GDP growth
was 4.2 %.
0.17% below the target 0.5% below the target
Low production of wheat was considered as one of the
main causes of missing targets (says economic survey
2012)

9. Target GDP growth for 2013 is
4.1%
Anticipating that major crops
will contribute 4%, minor
crops 4.5%, livestock 4.2%,
fisheries 2% and forestry 2% if
every thing remain the same
only wheat will decide the fate
of GDP during 2013

10. Target GDP growth for 2013 is
4.1%
Anticipating that major crops
will contribute 4%, Minor
crops 4.5%, livestock 4.2%,
fisheries 2% and forestry 2% if
every thing remain the same
only wheat will decide the fate
of GDP during 2013
While targets for livestock,
fisheries and forestry are positive,
targets for major and minor crops
are expected to fluctuate

11. Target GDP growth for 2013 is
4.1%
Anticipated targets
for major crops in
2013
Provisional
estimates
in 2013
Wheat 25.5
Mt
>26 Mt
Rice 06.9
Mt
07.2 Mt
S-cane 59.0
Mt
68.5 Mt
Maize 04.3
Mt
04.3 Mt
Cotton 14.5 13.9 Mb

12. Target GDP growth for 2013 is
4.1%
Anticipating
targets for
major crops are
Prov.
estimat
e
In 2013
If
wheat
remain
s
GDP
growth
will be
Wheat 25.5
Mt
>26 Mt 25.5Mt 4.6%
Rice 06.9
Mt
07.2 Mt 24.5 Mt 4.0%
S-cane 59.0
Mt
68.5 Mt >26Mt 5.0%

13. What is required in crop sector and why?
Resources comprising land, water and manpower
so that agriculture can be:
Productive: So that share in GDP can be increased from
21.2 % to 27% by 2015
Profitable: So that it can generate more income with
less expenditure compared to other ventures
and should produce exportable commodities
Competitive: So that it can reduce poverty in the rural
areas, through providing livelihood and
creation of jobs
Sustainable: So that it should be able to absorb shocks
and remain productive forever,

14. We have in hand
Available Potential
Land 23.13 Mha 6.30 Mha saline
0.80 Mha under GTC
0.41 Mha under KC
0.17 Mha under RC
Water 89.8 MAF (2012) 8500 Cusecs in GTC
6000 Cusecs in KC
5155 Cusecs in RC
19655 Cusecs in total
Manpower: 45% (2012) All those related with
newly irrigated areas

15. Rabi season (Winter)
Major crops: Wheat,
Minor crops: oil seed, grams
Wheat (Anticipated wheat production in 2012-2013 would be >26Mt: highest ever)
Target during 2012-2013 : 25.5 Mt
Achieved in 2011-2012: 23.52 Mt
Current area: 08.7 Mha Should be ≥9Mha
Current production: 23.5 M tons Should be ≥26 M tons
Current share in GDP 2.6% Should be ≥4%
All the targets can be met through
different strategies

16. Strategy-1:
Increase in area under cultivation which require
additional irrigation water
Strategy-2:
Increase in yield which require intensive research
Strategy-3:
Shift in agriculture pattern which require strategic
planning
Are all the 3 strategies are doable?

17. Stragety-1: part-1 Additional water availability
1. Greater Thal Canal (GTC), Punjab
Passes through Bhakkar, Layyah, Khushab, Jhang
Taken out of Chasham Jehlum Link Canal near Adhi Kot
Will carry flood water in Monsoon season which will of 8500 cusecs of water
That will be for at-least 120 days:4 months and can be used for sugarcane,
wheat and oil seed crops
1.9 M acres (0.8M ha) in Punjab will be benefited
2. Kachhi Canal (KC), Punjab and Balochistan
Will pass through Muzaffargarh, DG Khan, Rajanpur in Punjab, and
Dera Bugti Naseerabad, Bolan and Jhal Magsi in Balochistan
and would irrigate area 713,000 (0.289Mha) of which 102,000 acres (0.0413 Mha
are in Southern Punjab and will carry Punjab share of water and flood water
of 6000 cusecs
3. Rainee Canal (RC), Sind
Will pass through Ghotki, Sukkur, and Khairpur of Sind
Will be taken from Guddu Barrage
Will carry 5155 cusecs of water, and
Will irrigate about 412,400 acres (0.167Mha) in Sind

18. Strategy-1: part-2:Increase in area
1.089Mha extra area would be available in Punjab that will come in the command
of GTC and KC
Use 0.339M ha of 1.089M ha that comes under Grater Thal Canal
(GTC) in which 120 days of water is also available.
Current average wheat yield is 2714kg/ha
With same yield, additional production of 0.92M tons is possible
339,000 (GTC) x 2714=920,046,000 kg or 0.92 M tons
i.e. total production would be 24.44 Mt. (Add 2011-2012 production of 23.52Mt)
Domestic consumption=20Mt @ ½ kg/person of 10-60 years old
Smuggling: 2 Mt: Remaining: 2.44 Mt
Export at international price or keep as buffer stock
Result: Food security/profitability and
increased share in GDP

19. Strategy-2: Researchable areas
Wheat Chickpea
Water deficiency tolerance Stress tolerance both
High temperature tolerance wilt and blight
Low input requirement High yielding
Disease resistance Uniform maturity
High yielding
Improved root system
Techniques to be used for research
Inter and intra-specific crosses, Hybrid
breeding, Mutation breeding

20. Strategy-3: Shift in Agriculture pattern
Use 1.054Mha area allocated for chick pea by
diverting entire chick pea crop in the Thal area
under GTC and KC (1.089Mha),
This will bring another 1054,000 ha under wheat
1054,000 x 2741=2,88901400 kg or
2.89Mt additional wheat, i.e.
total wheat production will be 26.41 Mt
(add production of 2011-2012: 23.52 Mt)
(Enough for domestic consumption, and export)
The GDP share will increase automatically

21. Together we
achieve the
target because
Where there isWhere there is
a will there is aa will there is a
way

22. Thanks