Global climate change and agricultue

1. Shafqat Farooq
PIEAS, Islamabad

2. Agriculture deals with:
1. Crops,
2. Livestock,
3. Agro-forestry, and
4. Aquaculture

3. and is critical for:
•Poverty reduction
•Economic development and
•Food security

4. Constraints of crop sector
1.Climate change
2. Immense water shortage
3. Salinization of originally productive soils
4. Depletion of SOM and unbalanced plant nutrition
5. Yield gap/stagnation/decline
6. Profitability: increasing cost and deceleration in TFP
(Total Factor Productivity) growth,
7. Lack of diversity (varieties, cropping system)
A holistic approach mitigating all these problems is
required

5. The Challenge
 By 2050, the global population will reach 8.9 billion and per
capita food consumption will rise above 3100 Kcal per day,
 Require 70% increase in agriculture productivity from 1600-
1680 Mha of cultivable land not sufficient to produce the
requirement of 40% increased population,
hence 90% of the required increase will come from
intensifying farming practices and higher yield
 From 1960 till to date, crop yields have increased globally by
77% just by exploiting the genetic potential which has largely
been exhausted and required re-evaluation
Many varieties currently are producing only 30-35% of what is
agro-ecologically attainable under comparable environments
climate change has further aggravated the situation

6. What are the options?
i. Get help from Genetic
engineering/smart breeding/
environment friendly genes
or
ii. Revisit strategies

7. Option-1:GE/smart breeding/environment friendly genes
Recommendation from Lok Sanjh Foundation and the Pakistan
Dehqan Assembly (> 600 small, landless farmers and tenants participated)
a)Withdraw the Agreement of Intent with Monsanto to introduce
Bt cotton,
b)Protect Basmati areas from GE and hybrid rice production
c)Right to Food should be given priority instead of breeder’s right,
d)WTO should be kept out of food and agriculture-related issues,
e)The Government should immediately withdraw the Corporate
Agricultural Farming Policy and land should be distributed to
landless and small farmers
f)The agriculture research system must be revamped to focus
strictly on local seed varieties
Will option-1 work?

8. Option-2: Revisit strategies
For this we have to think:
i. What is required for crops?
ii. What we have?
iii.What we need? and
iv. What we can have?

9. What is required in crop sector?
Resources comprising land, water and manpower
to make agriculture:
Productive: so that share in GDP can be increased
from 19.6 % to 27% by 2015
Profitable: so that it can generate more income with
less expenditure and should produce
exportable commodities
Competitive: So that it can reduce poverty through
providing livelihood and creation of jobs
in the rural areas and
Sustainable: so that it should be able to absorb shocks
and remain productive forever.

10. What we have (Production,000Tons)
Year Wheat Rice Cotton Sugar cane
2004-05 21,612 5,025 14,265 47,244
2005-06 21,227 5,547 13,019 44,666
2006-07 23,295 5,438 12,856 54,742
2007-08 20,959 5,563 11,655 63,920
2008-09 20,033 6,952 11,819 50,045
2009-10 23,311 6,883 12,913 49,373
2010-11 24,214 4,823 11,460 55,309
¶Required
Production
¥ Yield
~ 26,000
2750 (2800)*
~7,5000
2039 (2500)*
~ 21.7
725 (1400)***
~70,000
55981(56000)**
* Yield increase, ** Area increase, *** Area and yield increase
¶ Author calculations based on vision 2015; Source data: Economic survey of
Pakistan 2011, Targets seems largely achievable despite climate change

11. What we can have?
Available Potential
Land 23.13 Mha 6.30 Mha saline
0.80 Mha under GTC
0.41 Mha under KC
0.17 Mha under RC
Water 90.00 MAF 8500 Cusecs in GTC
2010-2011 6000 Cusecs in KC
5155 Cusecs in RC
19655 Cusecs in total
(app. 14.23 MAF)
Manpower: 45% (2010-2011) All those related with
newly irrigated areas
What about climate change?

12. Climate change will have negative impacts
Will lower yields (the varieties in hand will not work)
Will increase prices (we are witnessing this)
More malnourished children (already 40%)
Require large additional expenditure to:
i. Build infrastructure
ii.Purchase the climate ready genes
(55 such families are available or )
iii. Pay royalties for growing the patented varieties
required to combat adverse impact of climate change
De we have enough resources?

13. NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
CSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Organization
If varieties in hands are used

14. Region 2000 No climate
change
With climate
change
NCAR
With climate
change
CSIRO
South Asia 2424 2660 (+09.79) 2226 (-08.20) 2255 (-06.97)
East Asia and Pacific 2879 3277 (+13.82) *2789 (-03.13) *2814 (-02.26)
Europe and Central Asia 3017 3382 (+12.10) 2852 (-05-50) 2885 (-05.47)
Latin America and Caribbean 2879 2985 (+03.68) 2615 (-09.17) 2628 (-08.72)
Middle East and North America 2846 3119 (+09.60) 2561 (-10-00) 2596 (-08.82)
Sub-Saharan Africa 2316 2452 (+05.87) 1924 (-16.92) 1931 (-16.62)
Developed countries 3450 3645 (+05.70) 3190 (-07.50) 3215 (-06.81)
Developing countries 2696 2886 (+ 07.00) 2410 (-10.60) 2432 (-09.79)
Daily per capita calorie availability
with and without climate change by the year 2050
*70% increase is require to meet the demand of increased population , additional increase
would be required to meet this deficiency
NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
CSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia

15. Source data: FAO
The situation will not remain the same with varieties in hands

16. Production will reduced in Pakistan by <
25%
What about Afghanistan?
Will smuggling increase?

17. Positive aspect: 100 mm more rain. New avenue for
cultivation, can increase export to IRAN and Afghanistan
Do we need strategic planning?
Commonwalth Scientific and Industrial Research organization

18. 100-200 mm more rain in Pakistan and in
some parts of Iran and Afghanistan will bring new
land under cultivation especially in Baluchistan
National Center for Atmospheric research, USA
Hope:

19. As a consequence of rain,
Increased production will meet the target sets in the vision 2020

20. How to make the gains sustainable
1. Plan strategically (action Pakistan)
2. Develop climate friendly (action global level)
3. Food production for human consumption be given
priority over consumption demand
(Action industrial countries)
60% for human, 40% for animal feed which is equivalent to annual calories
need of 3.5 billion (> half) of the total 6.6 billion population)
3.Follow the food web and not the food chain
(Action developed countries)
Is this not what was suggested by the poor and illiterate farmers in remote
Sheikhupura district ?
4. Keep, preserve and save genetic diversity (animal,
plants and fishes) because climate crisis need this more
than hunger crisis,
(Action researcher/research organization)

21. The uncertainties of
climate change demand
a complete rethink of
research
especially the breeding
priorities.
Plant breeders needs to
nurture species and
genetic diversity in the
field
Hopefully
It will be the peasant
farming system that will
use genetic diversity and
help crop withstand
climate change
because
They did
it in the
past
Why
can’t they
do it now?
Courtesy ETC

22. Courtesy ETC: Action Group on Erosion, Technology and Concentration
Based in CANADA