Climat echange and food security

1. Climate change
and food security:
current and future
scenario
Shafqat Farooq
Director (Academic Planning), PIEAS

2. The problem
The task

3. Food security exists when all people
at all times, have physical and
economic access to sufficient, safe
and nutritious food to meet their
dietary needs and food preferences for
an active and healthy life (FAO, 1996).
It has four dimensions:
i. Food availability,
ii. Access to food,
iii. Stability of supply and access, and
iv. Healthy food utilization.

4. 23%
10%
32.5%
7%
36% 19%
24%

5. Access to food?
Up to 2010, 925 million people were hungry in world
Because of soaring food prices and low purchase power

6. Some of the main drivers
underlying challenge of ensuring
food security around the globe are:
1.Global population growth coupled with
demographic change, and
2. Global climate change and other
environmental impacts

7. 1. Global population growth and demographic change,
increasing induce urbanization and increases demand
for food and changing patterns of demand where as
2. Rising affluence is associated with increases in food
consumption especially of meat and dairy products.
Much (but not all) of the expansion in population will
occur in developing countries: improving food security
(especially affordability, access and availability) is close
linked with the need to reduce poverty

8. Structure of the world diet, 2005-2007. Diet composition for 178 countries is represented by three data
points along a vertical line corresponding to national dietary energy supply (blue = energy share from
protein, red = energy share from fat, green = energy share from carbohydrate). As economies develop,
improvement in food access leads to increased caloric intake up to a plateau. From there, diet structure
changed: consumption of cereals and vegetables decreases while that of sugar, fats and animal products
increases. Developed countries have undergone this second transition over a century. A similar but greatly accelerated pattern
can be seen in Asia, Central and Latin America, and to a lesser extent in Africa, where these diet transitions are occurring within
20 years in emerging countries and within 40 years in developing countries. Source: Total energy supply and shares of protein,
fat and carbohydrate have been computed from the average values for the last three available years in the FAO database (2005,
2006 and 2007) Update to Combris 2006, courtesy of the author.

9. 2. Environmental perspective?
Climate is changing globally
This refers to a statistically significant variation in
either the mean state of the climate or in its
variability and persistence for an extended period
(typically decades or longer).
Climate may change due either to natural processes, external forcing,
or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of
the atmosphere or in land-use.
Source: ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: KEY TERMS,2006

10. Climate change will lead to:
Extreme heat and temperature,
Intense and longer droughts,
High frequency of heavy
precipitation,
Unprecedented floods and
Intense tropical cyclones
It is primarily via these impacts that climate change will have
negative effects on food security and nutrition.

11. Heat affected patients
being treated in France
Temperature anomaly in France Mohenjo-daro, Pakistan, temperature
reaches record high 53.70
C in 2010

13. Islamabad: A motorcyclist rides on the dry
and cracked surface of Rawal Lake: The
main source of water supply to Rawalpindi.

14. According to the United Nations, drought
and desertification already threaten the
livelihood of some one billion people in
more than 110 countries around the world.
Severe
drought
impacts the
Brazilian
Amazon.
Thousands
of fishes
die at the
dry river
bed of
Half of India affected by extreme drought

17. Rains led declaration of "flash-flood
emergency" in Duluth, Minnesota
June 20, 2012)
Flood in Brisbane Duluth , Minnesota

18. The image in the middle was taken on August 15, 2010, and the
one on the left was snapped one year ago (2009). The blue
patches show the extend of the flooding, which have left 20
Million people homeless. Extreme left: flood in Badin dist. 2011

24. Developing countries are hit the hardest
Economic losses Losses as %age of GDP

25. Emerging food insecurity : Rice crises in
2008
1. Drought led reduction in wheat
production in Australia,
2. Snow storm in China reduced
grain production
India withheld rice stock
Vietnam withheld rice stock
International market price shoot
up to 40%
Rice price shoots up in Thailand in response of global rice
demand leading to prison riots and theft of rice farms
Source data: Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

27. 1.
2.
3
The large resulting gap between food supply and demand can be bridged by simultaneously applying three general
approaches. (1) Avoiding losses in current productive capacity can include actions to adapt to or mitigate climate
change, to reduce land and water degradation and to protect against emerging pests and disease. (2) Increasing
agricultural production per unit land area can be achieved through use of improved technologies, practices and
policies, more efficient use of existing agricultural land and targeted expansion of agricultural land and water use
(where negative environmental impacts are minimal). (3) Reducing food demand can be accomplished through
efforts to promote healthier and more sustainable food choices and to reduce food waste across supply chains.
None of these three approaches alone are sufficient and all three require substantial innovation in the food system.
Source: B Keating, CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture, based on Keating and Carberry (2010).

28. How to ensure food security in the wake of
increasing population and climate change?
1. Stop waste
2. Give priority to human food
over
animal feed
3. Improve varieties
4. Go organic
5. Use alternate food
a. artificial meet,
b. sea weeds

29. Food losses and waste within the food System. a) Per capita food losses and waste
(all agriculture products) at consumption and pre-consumption stages., b. Part of
initial cereal production lost or wasted at different staged of food supply chain. The
figure do not include losses due to animal feed
Per capita
food losses
and waste
(Kg year-1
)
Food losses
Cereals
1. Stop waste

30. 2. Stop using cereals for animal
feedBy 2050, 1,573 million tones of cereals will be used annually for non-food of which at
least 1.45 million tones can be estimated to be used as animal feed.
Each tone of cereal contain 3 million kcal. This means that the yearly non-food use of
cereals represents 4,350 billion kcal. Assuming daily need as 3,000 kcal, this will
translate into about 1 million kcal/year needed per person. The non-food use of cereals
is thus enough to cover the calorie need for about 4.35 billion people.
If we assume that 3 kg of cereals are used per kg animal product and each kg of
animal product contains half the calories in one kg cereals (≈ 1,500 kcal per kg
meat),this means that each kg of cereals used for feed will give 500 kcal for human
consumption and one tone cereals used for feed will give 0.5 million kcal, and the total
calorie production from feed grains (1.45MT) will thus be 787 billion kcal.
Subtracting this from the 4,350 billion calorie value of feed cereals will gives 3,563
billion calories. Thus, taking the energy value of the meat produced into consideration,
the loss of calories by feeding the cereals to animals represents the annual calorie
need for more than 3.5 billion people.

31. The "green" in Green Super Rice means
environmentally friendly. Researchers say it
will produce at least as much grain as other
rice plants but with fewer inputs. "Super"
means the rice is designed to better resist
droughts, floods, salty water, insects and
disease.
Chinese plant breeder Zhikang Li, worked
for 12 years with the Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences and the International
Rice Research Institute in Philippines
developed GREEN SUPPER RICE
a series of rice varieties which produce
more than conventional varieties.
Green super rice, which could increase
yields in Asia enough to feed an extra 100
million people, will be rolled out in the
coming years. Several varieties should be
available to farmers about two years from
now in parts of Asia and Africa.
MPROVE VARIETIES: THE GREEN SUPPER RICE

32. Europe and central Asia
East Asia and Pacific
4. Go organic

33. What causes bio-fuel
expansion?
a. Industrial farming
A study made by John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in 2002
estimated that, using our current system, on the average
Three calories of energy were needed
to create one calorie of edible food.
Grain-fed beef requires thirty-five calories for every calorie of beef produced
John Hopkins study didn’t include the energy used in processing and transporting food.
Other studies that included food processing, storage and transportation
estimated that it takes an average of
7-10 calories of input energy
to produce one calorie of

34. b Growing practices

35. 5. Use alternate food
a. Sea weeds (Grow Algae when we cannot
vacate land to produce more food
crops)
Under optimum conditions, commercial algae farms can produce 5,000-10,000 gallons of oil
per acre, compared to just 350 gallons of ethanol biofuel per acre grown with crops like
maize.
In addition, algae could feed millions of animals and act as a fertilizer. Replacing all US
ethanol (biofuel) production with algae oil would need around 2m acres of desert but, it
would allow 40 million acres of cropland to be planted with human food and save billions of
gallons of irrigation water a year.
Algae are at the bottom of the food chain but they are already eaten widely in Japan and
China in the form of seaweeds, and are used as fertilizers, soil conditioners and animal feed.
They range from giant seaweeds and kelps to microscopic slimes, are capable of fixing CO2
in the atmosphere and providing fats, oils and sugars.
They are eaten by everything from the tiniest shrimp to the great blue whales.
They are the base of all life and must be the future food," says Edwards.Source: Professor Mark Edwards of Arizona State University

36. SEAWEED HARVESTING IN BALI.
FROM SEAWEED TO SLIME, ALGAE IS THE FUTURE OF FOOD,
SAYS PROFESSOR MARK EDWARDS PHOTOGRAPH: ED
WRAY/AP

37. B. ARTIFICIAL MEAT
It looks like meat, feels like meat and it is meat, although it's never been near a
living, breathing animal. Instead, artificial or "cultured" meat is grown from stem
cells in giant vats.
Demand for meet is increasing, needs to open up new farmland. Cattle now occupy
nearly 1/4 of all cultivable land, and growing crops for animal feed takes up
another 25%.
Much of the research into artificial meat is being done in Europe where scientists
are developing edible tissue grown from stem cells in laboratories. But while the
first artificial hamburger could be developed next year, it might taste of nothing at
all.
Meat needs blood and fat to give it color and taste, and while stem cells for blood
and fat have been identified, the process is complex and expensive work.
Artificial meat is environment friendly as it uses far less water, energy and land
and few ethical objections largely because mass production of animals in factory
farms and use of growth hormones and antibiotics is already considered
questionable.

38. b. Artificial meet

39. 6. Go technical Go Desertech
Much of the world is arid, with its only nearby water being the
sea.
So could there be a technology to green coastal deserts in places
such
as Chile, California, Peru and the Middle East using salt water?
Yes: seawater greenhouse (SWGH) is the answer
In the natural water cycle, seawater is heated by the sun,
evaporates, cools to form clouds, and returns to earth as rain.
Similarly, in SWGH, hot desert air goes into a Greenhouse, cooled and then
humidified by seawater. This humid air nourishes crops growing inside and
then passes through an evaporator. When it meets a series of tubes
containing cool seawater, fresh water condenses and is then collected.
Because the greenhouses produces more than five times the fresh water
needed to water the plants, some of it can be released into the local
environment to grow other plants.
Seawater greenhouses have been shown to work and this year a large-scale pilot
project backed by the Norwegian government will be built near Aqaba in Jordan.
The Sahara Forest Project
will combine different technologies to grow food and biofuel crops and be running by
2015.

40. But this is just one of many technologies being
developed to enable food to be grown in unlikely
places. One of the simplest, but most ambitious
plans, may be the long-mooted Great Green
Wall of Africa. This linear forest would be
15km wide and 7,775km long, and stretch
from Senegal in the west to Djibouti in
east Africa.
It would, say the 11 countries through which it
would pass, will help stop southward spread of
the Sahara, slow soil erosion and wind speeds,
help rain water filter into the ground and create
micro-climates to allow fruit, vegetables and
other crops to be grown.
Charlie Paton, a British inventor,
DESERTEC cont.

41. The desertec concept offer a solution to many of the problems
faced by the mankind.
It demonstrate a way to provide
climate protection,
energy security and development by generating sustainable
power from sites where renewable resource are at their most
abundant
The sun rich deserts of the world play special role .
Within Six hours, deserts receive more energy form the sun than
humankind consumes within a year.
In addition, 90% of the world’s population lives within 3000 km of
deserts which means it is applicable across the world.
Concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants are the key to
harnessing desert sun: they use heat from the sun to drive steam
turbines and generate electricity. This heat can also be stored in
heat tanks which means that electricity is available on demand.
The technology is proven and has been in use for years
DESERTEC cont.