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Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights




Understanding the Modern Gamer
What Google search data says about gamer behavior


Introduction: An Evolution in Behavior                                                                                      Key Insights
In recent years, the video game industry has                                                                                •     Digital engagement with top-tier games
significantly transformed due to the emergence of new                                                                             during the 10 months around release is
gaming platforms, the rise of digital content, and the                                                                            higher than ever – desktop searches per
advancement of online distribution. In response to this                                                                           gamer increased 20% y/y and mobile
evolving landscape, publishers have re-allocated their                                                                            searches grew 168% y/y
resources to fewer, but larger games with rich content                                                                      •     Engagement is shifting to the 6 months
that can be delivered to consumers at any time and                                                                                pre-launch as gamers research which
across multiple platforms, from consoles to mobile                                                                                titles to purchase: in 2011, 4 in 10
devices. This radical industry shift has intensified                                                                              searches occurred during this phase
competition and impacted how gamers interact with the                                                                       •     Gamers seek different information as
biggest titles.                                                                                                                   they proceed through the purchase path
                                                                                                                                  – they care about publisher-released
At Google, we focus on understanding user behavior,                                                                               assets during pre-launch, advancement
and search engine data provides a unique insight into                                                                             information (such as tips) during launch,
this evolution. Search data analysis is representative                                                                            and extension content (such as DLC)
of gamer behavior for 2 reasons: (1) millions of gamers                                                                           during post-launch
use search engines, providing us with an unparalleled                                                                       •     For major franchise titles, engagement is
data set and, (2) gamers are incredibly savvy Internet                                                                            extending beyond the traditional release
users whose searches reveal an extraordinarily high                                                                               cycle to year-round interaction
level of intention.                                                                                                         •     Interaction with marquee titles on mobile
                                                                                                                                  devices is rapidly growing: in 2011, 10%
To identify meaningful gamer insights, we tapped into                                                                             of searches happened on mobile
this massive database of intent, and analyzed                                                                               •     Gamers leverage mobile as a purchase
hundreds of millions of video game searches that                                                                                  device and secondary screen – 1 in 5
occurred on desktops and mobile devices (including                                                                                buy searches during launch and 27% of
both phones and tablets) for the top 20 selling games                                                                             tips searches during post-launch took
of 2010 and 2011.*                                                                                                                place on mobile
                                                                                                                            •     Desktop engagement patterns closely
Our findings are segmented into 2 parts:                                                                                          align with game unit sales trends (.92
•  Part 1: Changes in Digital Engagement with Top                                                                                 correlation); AdWords clicks in the 10
   Titles                                                                                                                         months surrounding launch predict 84%
•  Part 2: Exploring the Predictive Power of Search –                                                                             of game unit sales**
   From Digital Engagement to Physical Sales




James Getomer                                             Michael Okimoto                                      Jennifer Cleaver                                                                            1
Sr. Analytical Lead, Gaming                               Industry Analyst, Gaming                             Principal Industry Analyst, Entertainment
*Game searches included title keywords, such as ‘Elder Scrolls V’, along with all relevant game title keyword variations, such as ‘Gears of War 3 trailer’, ‘Battlefield 3 website’, ‘Batman Arkham City
review’, and more. Game searches were segmented by search platform – desktop, and mobile – and game launch cycle phases – pre-launch, launch, and post-launch. Pre-launch included the six
months prior to the week of game release, launch included the month of game release, and post-launch included the three months after the month of game release.
**Game unit sales = sales in first four months after release, according to NPD.
Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights


Part 1: Changes in Digital Engagement with Top Titles

Engagement is Growing
Our findings reveal that gamers are interacting on desktops with the biggest
titles more than ever. In 2011, desktop searches per gamer grew 20% y/y.
Additionally, desktop search volume for marquee titles increased 29% y/y,
                                                                                                                                        +20%
                                                                                                                                     increase y/y in desktop
outpacing the 8% growth y/y in console gamers online.
                                                                                                                                       searches per gamer

Gamers’ engagement with triple-A titles follows a bell-curve, as depicted by the gray area in chart 1. The
overlaid blue bars show monthly search growth relative to total searches in month 1. Accordingly,
engagement peaks during launch month (7), with searches in launch month being 540% greater than
searches in month 1. Several of the games in our analysis made announcements six months ahead of
launch, resulting in higher search volume in month 1 relative to month 2.


Chart 1 | Average Search Volume for Triple-A Game – Desktop
                                 Monthly Search Growth Over Month 1
                                                                                                                +540%                Launch Month
      Search Volume




                                                                                               +215%                             +208%
                                                                                                                                                 +128%
                                                                               +72%                                                                                +92%
                                                 +1%           +17%
                                    -10%


                      1            2          3               4                5                6               7                8                9               10
                                                                                           Month




More Competition, More Research
As gamers encounter a growing number of high-quality, competing titles, they increasingly conduct more
searches during pre-launch to help them research which titles to purchase. In fact, recent third-party research
found that the average gamer considers at least 2 different titles before making a final purchase decision.**
Our data shows that pre-launch search displayed the strongest growth y/y of 37%, whereas launch search
increased 29% y/y and post-launch search rose 21% y/y. Similarly, chart 2 shows that the pre-launch share
of total launch cycle searches grew from 37% in 2010 to 40% in 2011.

Chart 2 | Launch Cycle Search Distribution – Desktop

                          Pre-Launch [ - 6 Months ]                         Launch [ 1 Month ]                           Post-Launch [ +3 Months ]

    2011                                   40%                                                 28%                                             32%


    2010                                   37%                                              28%
                                                                                            29%                                              34%




*Nielsen gamer defined as 18+ male / female who (owns Xbox 360 OR PlayStation 3 OR Wii) AND (purchased a video game online / offline in past 6 months).                   2
Searches per gamer metric = total number of annual game title searches for top 20 selling games / total number of gamers online, according to Nielsen, 2010 and 2011.
**Video Game Purchase Behavior, Ipsos OTX, 2012.
Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights


The Journey: Research, Purchase, and Extend
Search patterns demonstrate that gamers seek different information as they proceed through the purchase path.
They research, purchase, and then extend their experiences.

Chart 3 | Top 5 Search Categories by Launch Phase – Desktop

  Rank                   Pre-Launch [ -6 Months ]                    Launch [ 1 Month ]                                  Post-Launch [ +3 Months ]
                 1	
  
                 1.      Release Date                                Tips                                                Tips

                 2	
  
                 2.      Trailer                                     Review                                              DLC

                 3	
  
                 3.      Image                                       Image                                               Image

                 4	
  
                 4.      Review                                      Release Date                                        Review

                 5	
  
                 5.      Demo                                        DLC                                                 Video


During the 6 months pre-launch, gamers are most interested in
researching official publisher-released content to help them decide
which titles to buy. Gamers want to know when titles will be
                                                                                                                       ~7 in 10
                                                                                                                     pre-launch searches are for
available, view trailers, see game art, and play short versions of                                                   publisher-released content
games.

During launch, gamers who have purchased a title shift their attention to advancement. Players seek
walkthroughs to navigate their experience and desktop wallpaper to make the game a part of their daily lives.
Those who have not made a purchase decision seek reviews – both professional and amateur – to finalize
their choices.

                                                   Reviews continue to be in demand even 4 months after release week as


   DLC is the #2 most
                         #2                        some gamers remain undecided. During post-launch, those who have
                                                   already purchased encounter another decision requiring research – whether
                                                   to extend their experience by buying downloadable content (DLC).
 popular search category
   during post-launch                              The journey outlined above is a cycle. After committing to a title, the
                                                   research phase begins again as gamers decide what to buy next.




The Evolving Path
For gamers who have purchased a franchise title, their research process quickly begins again. Our data
reveals that gamers’ engagement with marquee franchise titles is persistent, overlapping and growing
between successive versions of games. This finding suggests that gamers who play franchise titles become
active members of growing communities that are interested in year-round interaction with franchise content.
Chart 4 exhibits the search volume for a top franchise title that released an installment in 2009, 2010, and
2011. Although this chart shows a single title, it is a trend we see across multiple franchises.

Chart 4 | Annual Search Volume for a Major Franchise Title – Desktop
                                                                                                                     2011 Release
 Search Volume




                                                                      2010 Release

                                   2009 Release




*To identify user values, our analysis used game title keywords combined with all relevant game content keywords, such as ‘Battlefield 3 trailer’, ‘Skyrim wallpaper’,   3
‘Modern Warfare 3 review’, and more. Standalone game title keywords were removed from this portion of the analysis due to their inability to reveal user intent.
Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights


More Engagement on Mobile
To supplement their desktop experience, gamers increasingly turn to
mobile devices to engage with top-tier titles. Our data shows that
gamers rely on phones and tablets more and more to seek gaming-
                                                                                                         +168%
                                                                                                             increase y/y in
related information. In 2011, mobile search for marquee titles surged                                       mobile searches
168% y/y.                                                                                                  for top-tier games

We discovered that mobile engagement patterns closely align with those on desktops: engagement is higher
than ever, interaction is shifting to pre-launch for research purposes, content sought by gamers varies
throughout the purchase path, and engagement is persistent for franchise titles.

Chart 5 | Average Search Volume for Triple-A Game – Mobile
                               Monthly Search Growth Over Month 1
                                                                                         +673%           Launch Month
   Search Volume




                                                                                 +280%
                                                                                                    +242%
                                                                                                                +174%
                                                                        +65%                                              +114%
                                  -13%                   +25%
                                                   -4%


                   1              2            3         4          5            6       7          8           9         10
                                                                               Month


Chart 6 | Launch Cycle Search Distribution – Mobile
                       Pre-Launch [ - 6 Months ]                Launch [ 1 Month ]           Post-Launch [ +3 Months ]

  2011                                   37%                                   30%                            33%

  2010                                   35%                                   32%                           33%



Chart 7 | Top 5 Search Categories by Launch Phase – Mobile
  Rank                     Pre-Launch [ - 6 Months ]             Launch [ 1 Month ]               Post-Launch [ +3 Months ]
      1	
  
      1.                   Release Date                          Tips                             Tips

      2	
  
      2.                   Trailer                               Review                           DLC

      3	
  
      3.                   Review                                Release Date                     Review

      4	
  
      4.                   Tips                                  DLC                              Image

      5	
  
      5.                   Demo                                  Buy                              Video



Chart 8 | Annual Search Volume for a Major Franchise Title – Mobile
                                                                                                 2011 Release
   Search Volume




                                                                2010 Release

                             2009 Release




                                                                                                                                  4
Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights


Different Device, Different Use
We found that gamers leverage mobile as a purchase device and then as a
secondary screen to provide assistance during gameplay. Mobile devices
garnered: 15% of all pre-order category searches during pre-launch, 21% of all                                                                                   1 in 5
                                                                                                                                                                buy searches during
buy category* searches during launch, and 24% of all buy category searches
during post-launch. This finding is corroborated by recent research that revealed                                                                                  launch occurs
that 1 in 3 gamers purchases a game after researching it on a mobile device.**                                                                                       on mobile


                                              Our data validates the belief that gamers, similar to all users, leverage mobile

      27%                                     devices as secondary screens, often using those devices in conjunction with other
                                              larger screens, such as televisions, desktops, or laptops. We discovered that 23%
                                              of all tips-related searches during launch month and 27% of all tips-related
   of tips searches
  during post-launch                          searches during post-launch take place on mobile. Thus, gamers are using mobile
  happen on mobile                            devices to locate tips, cheats, hints, and walkthroughs while they are actually
                                              playing video games.




Mobile Matters Now
Digital interaction on mobile devices with the                                                                  Chart 9 | Annual Search Device Distribution
biggest tittles is becoming more and more                                                                                  Desktop Search                       Mobile Search
popular among gamers. Chart 9 shows that
                                                                                                                             2010                                           2011
mobile search doubled its share of platform                                                                                                             10%
searches in 2011, such that 1 in 10 searches                                                                      5%
happened on mobile devices.
                                                                                                                               95%                                              90%




Part 2: Exploring the Predictive Power of Search –
From Digital Engagement to Physical Sales

Search. Click. Purchase.
A search, at its core, signifies a user’s request for more information. After entering a request in the search
engine box, a user encounters a page of results showing multiple links that lead to various content sources.
At this point, a user has the option to click on any of the appropriate search results. A click, therefore,
represents a user’s decision to further engage with a content source. Due to the millions of searches that
occur for triple-A titles, we naturally wondered if the millions of associated AdWords clicks – each click a signal
of continued engagement – were somehow predictive of top-tier game unit sales.

 To address this question, we aggregated and analyzed AdWords clicks on brand keywords and unit sales for
 the top 25 selling games of 2011, according to NPD.*** Click data was segmented by time period in relation
 to launch month to determine if there is any particular time when clicks are more or less predictive of game
 unit sales.


*The buy search category includes purchase-related terms combined with major game retailers, such as Best Buy, Walmart, GameStop, Amazon, and more.                                                        5
**Video Game Purchase Behavior, Ipsos OTX, 2012.
***NPD console video game POS data, 2011.
Note on methodology: we looked at the top 25 console titles by units sold, and excluded fitness & dance titles because they have a different audience of non-core gamers. A 'click' was counted
every time someone searched for the title of one of these games, an ad was served against that query, and the searcher clicked that ad. It does not discriminate between clicks on ads paid for
by the publisher of that game and ads paid for by a third party, such as GameStop or Walmart. We believe this is still a sound analysis, because the click is still an indication of interest and intent
on the part of the searcher.
Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights


 We ran correlation analysis to find out whether there is a relationship between clicks and game units sold,
 and then conducted a single-variable regression analysis to see if clicks could actually be used to predict
 game sales.

 Our data reveals a .92 correlation (on a scale of -1 to 1,1 signifies perfect correlation) between clicks during
 the 10 month game launch cycle and game units sold during the first 4 months post-release, as illustrated in
 chart 10.

 Chart 10 | AdWords Clicks + Game Unit Sales Correlation
                                AdWords Clicks        Unit Sales
                         7                                                                                                   1,800,000
Indexed AdWords Clicks




                                                                                                                             1,600,000




                                                                                                                                         Game Unit Sales
                         6
                                                                                                                             1,400,000
                         5
                                                                                                                             1,200,000
                         4                                                                                                   1,000,000
                         3                                                                                                   800,000
                                                                                                                             600,000
                         2
                                                                                                                             400,000
                         1                                                                                                   200,000
                         0                                                                                                   0
                              Launch -3   Launch -2      Launch -1     Launch        Launch +2   Launch +3     Launch +4
                                                                       Month




                                                                                                          2-4MM
   More importantly, our data demonstrates that 84% of sales can
   be predicted by all clicks during the 10 month launch cycle.
   We used the regression coefficient from our analysis to create a
   predictive model and found that if a game accrues 250,000                                          predicted range of unit sales
   clicks in the 10 months around launch, it will likely sell between                                for games that garner 250,000
   2 and 4 million units in the first four months after release. Chart                                AdWords brand clicks in the
   11 displays the predicted range of game unit sales based on the                                      10 months around launch
   number of AdWords clicks on game title keywords.


   Chart 11 | AdWords Clicks + Predicted Game Unit Sales
                                Upper Limit      Lower Limit

                         4,500,000
                         4,000,000
  Game Unit Sales




                         3,500,000
                         3,000,000
                         2,500,000
                         2,000,000
                         1,500,000
                         1,000,000
                           500,000
                                -
                                      75,000   100,000    125,000    150,000     175,000   200,000   225,000   250,000     275,000

                                                                               AdWords Clicks

   Although user click data is a powerful predictor of game unit sales, we readily acknowledge that other factors
   – such as game quality, TV investment, online display investment, social buzz, and more – must be
   incorporated into our analysis to create a predictive model that is even more accurate and reliable. In the
   future, we plan to include such factors in a multi-variate model.




                                                                                                                                                           6
Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights


Conclusion: Implications for the Gaming Community
Gamers increasingly leverage desktops and mobile devices to interact with marquee titles, actively
conducting millions of searches to help them navigate the modern gaming landscape. In a world of
ever-expanding choices, search helps them decide what to buy, learn how to play better, and even connect to
the larger community surrounding their favorite game.

This ever present relationship between gamer and game may be digital, but it has implications for real-world
sales. There is a quantifiable link between what people search for and what they buy that enables us to
predict game sales.

Digital tools, such as search, offer gamers the unique ability to directly reach out to publishers and retailers.
Publishers and retailers, in turn, have a tremendous opportunity to drive even stronger results by reaching
back to gamers. Retailers can maximize game sales, from pre-orders to DLC, by delivering key content to
gamers at the right moments across multiple devices. The publisher of the future can successfully grow their
brands by controlling and facilitating meaningful, ongoing conversations with their fans from announce to
launch, and beyond.


Special thanks to Adam Stewart, Nishad Pai, Sam Franklin, and Matt Seitz for contributing to this whitepaper.




                                                                                                                    7

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Google 2012 Understanding The Modern Gamer

  • 1. Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights Understanding the Modern Gamer What Google search data says about gamer behavior Introduction: An Evolution in Behavior Key Insights In recent years, the video game industry has •  Digital engagement with top-tier games significantly transformed due to the emergence of new during the 10 months around release is gaming platforms, the rise of digital content, and the higher than ever – desktop searches per advancement of online distribution. In response to this gamer increased 20% y/y and mobile evolving landscape, publishers have re-allocated their searches grew 168% y/y resources to fewer, but larger games with rich content •  Engagement is shifting to the 6 months that can be delivered to consumers at any time and pre-launch as gamers research which across multiple platforms, from consoles to mobile titles to purchase: in 2011, 4 in 10 devices. This radical industry shift has intensified searches occurred during this phase competition and impacted how gamers interact with the •  Gamers seek different information as biggest titles. they proceed through the purchase path – they care about publisher-released At Google, we focus on understanding user behavior, assets during pre-launch, advancement and search engine data provides a unique insight into information (such as tips) during launch, this evolution. Search data analysis is representative and extension content (such as DLC) of gamer behavior for 2 reasons: (1) millions of gamers during post-launch use search engines, providing us with an unparalleled •  For major franchise titles, engagement is data set and, (2) gamers are incredibly savvy Internet extending beyond the traditional release users whose searches reveal an extraordinarily high cycle to year-round interaction level of intention. •  Interaction with marquee titles on mobile devices is rapidly growing: in 2011, 10% To identify meaningful gamer insights, we tapped into of searches happened on mobile this massive database of intent, and analyzed •  Gamers leverage mobile as a purchase hundreds of millions of video game searches that device and secondary screen – 1 in 5 occurred on desktops and mobile devices (including buy searches during launch and 27% of both phones and tablets) for the top 20 selling games tips searches during post-launch took of 2010 and 2011.* place on mobile •  Desktop engagement patterns closely Our findings are segmented into 2 parts: align with game unit sales trends (.92 •  Part 1: Changes in Digital Engagement with Top correlation); AdWords clicks in the 10 Titles months surrounding launch predict 84% •  Part 2: Exploring the Predictive Power of Search – of game unit sales** From Digital Engagement to Physical Sales James Getomer Michael Okimoto Jennifer Cleaver 1 Sr. Analytical Lead, Gaming Industry Analyst, Gaming Principal Industry Analyst, Entertainment *Game searches included title keywords, such as ‘Elder Scrolls V’, along with all relevant game title keyword variations, such as ‘Gears of War 3 trailer’, ‘Battlefield 3 website’, ‘Batman Arkham City review’, and more. Game searches were segmented by search platform – desktop, and mobile – and game launch cycle phases – pre-launch, launch, and post-launch. Pre-launch included the six months prior to the week of game release, launch included the month of game release, and post-launch included the three months after the month of game release. **Game unit sales = sales in first four months after release, according to NPD.
  • 2. Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights Part 1: Changes in Digital Engagement with Top Titles Engagement is Growing Our findings reveal that gamers are interacting on desktops with the biggest titles more than ever. In 2011, desktop searches per gamer grew 20% y/y. Additionally, desktop search volume for marquee titles increased 29% y/y, +20% increase y/y in desktop outpacing the 8% growth y/y in console gamers online. searches per gamer Gamers’ engagement with triple-A titles follows a bell-curve, as depicted by the gray area in chart 1. The overlaid blue bars show monthly search growth relative to total searches in month 1. Accordingly, engagement peaks during launch month (7), with searches in launch month being 540% greater than searches in month 1. Several of the games in our analysis made announcements six months ahead of launch, resulting in higher search volume in month 1 relative to month 2. Chart 1 | Average Search Volume for Triple-A Game – Desktop Monthly Search Growth Over Month 1 +540% Launch Month Search Volume +215% +208% +128% +72% +92% +1% +17% -10% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Month More Competition, More Research As gamers encounter a growing number of high-quality, competing titles, they increasingly conduct more searches during pre-launch to help them research which titles to purchase. In fact, recent third-party research found that the average gamer considers at least 2 different titles before making a final purchase decision.** Our data shows that pre-launch search displayed the strongest growth y/y of 37%, whereas launch search increased 29% y/y and post-launch search rose 21% y/y. Similarly, chart 2 shows that the pre-launch share of total launch cycle searches grew from 37% in 2010 to 40% in 2011. Chart 2 | Launch Cycle Search Distribution – Desktop Pre-Launch [ - 6 Months ] Launch [ 1 Month ] Post-Launch [ +3 Months ] 2011 40% 28% 32% 2010 37% 28% 29% 34% *Nielsen gamer defined as 18+ male / female who (owns Xbox 360 OR PlayStation 3 OR Wii) AND (purchased a video game online / offline in past 6 months). 2 Searches per gamer metric = total number of annual game title searches for top 20 selling games / total number of gamers online, according to Nielsen, 2010 and 2011. **Video Game Purchase Behavior, Ipsos OTX, 2012.
  • 3. Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights The Journey: Research, Purchase, and Extend Search patterns demonstrate that gamers seek different information as they proceed through the purchase path. They research, purchase, and then extend their experiences. Chart 3 | Top 5 Search Categories by Launch Phase – Desktop Rank Pre-Launch [ -6 Months ] Launch [ 1 Month ] Post-Launch [ +3 Months ] 1   1. Release Date Tips Tips 2   2. Trailer Review DLC 3   3. Image Image Image 4   4. Review Release Date Review 5   5. Demo DLC Video During the 6 months pre-launch, gamers are most interested in researching official publisher-released content to help them decide which titles to buy. Gamers want to know when titles will be ~7 in 10 pre-launch searches are for available, view trailers, see game art, and play short versions of publisher-released content games. During launch, gamers who have purchased a title shift their attention to advancement. Players seek walkthroughs to navigate their experience and desktop wallpaper to make the game a part of their daily lives. Those who have not made a purchase decision seek reviews – both professional and amateur – to finalize their choices. Reviews continue to be in demand even 4 months after release week as DLC is the #2 most #2 some gamers remain undecided. During post-launch, those who have already purchased encounter another decision requiring research – whether to extend their experience by buying downloadable content (DLC). popular search category during post-launch The journey outlined above is a cycle. After committing to a title, the research phase begins again as gamers decide what to buy next. The Evolving Path For gamers who have purchased a franchise title, their research process quickly begins again. Our data reveals that gamers’ engagement with marquee franchise titles is persistent, overlapping and growing between successive versions of games. This finding suggests that gamers who play franchise titles become active members of growing communities that are interested in year-round interaction with franchise content. Chart 4 exhibits the search volume for a top franchise title that released an installment in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Although this chart shows a single title, it is a trend we see across multiple franchises. Chart 4 | Annual Search Volume for a Major Franchise Title – Desktop 2011 Release Search Volume 2010 Release 2009 Release *To identify user values, our analysis used game title keywords combined with all relevant game content keywords, such as ‘Battlefield 3 trailer’, ‘Skyrim wallpaper’, 3 ‘Modern Warfare 3 review’, and more. Standalone game title keywords were removed from this portion of the analysis due to their inability to reveal user intent.
  • 4. Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights More Engagement on Mobile To supplement their desktop experience, gamers increasingly turn to mobile devices to engage with top-tier titles. Our data shows that gamers rely on phones and tablets more and more to seek gaming- +168% increase y/y in related information. In 2011, mobile search for marquee titles surged mobile searches 168% y/y. for top-tier games We discovered that mobile engagement patterns closely align with those on desktops: engagement is higher than ever, interaction is shifting to pre-launch for research purposes, content sought by gamers varies throughout the purchase path, and engagement is persistent for franchise titles. Chart 5 | Average Search Volume for Triple-A Game – Mobile Monthly Search Growth Over Month 1 +673% Launch Month Search Volume +280% +242% +174% +65% +114% -13% +25% -4% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Month Chart 6 | Launch Cycle Search Distribution – Mobile Pre-Launch [ - 6 Months ] Launch [ 1 Month ] Post-Launch [ +3 Months ] 2011 37% 30% 33% 2010 35% 32% 33% Chart 7 | Top 5 Search Categories by Launch Phase – Mobile Rank Pre-Launch [ - 6 Months ] Launch [ 1 Month ] Post-Launch [ +3 Months ] 1   1. Release Date Tips Tips 2   2. Trailer Review DLC 3   3. Review Release Date Review 4   4. Tips DLC Image 5   5. Demo Buy Video Chart 8 | Annual Search Volume for a Major Franchise Title – Mobile 2011 Release Search Volume 2010 Release 2009 Release 4
  • 5. Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights Different Device, Different Use We found that gamers leverage mobile as a purchase device and then as a secondary screen to provide assistance during gameplay. Mobile devices garnered: 15% of all pre-order category searches during pre-launch, 21% of all 1 in 5 buy searches during buy category* searches during launch, and 24% of all buy category searches during post-launch. This finding is corroborated by recent research that revealed launch occurs that 1 in 3 gamers purchases a game after researching it on a mobile device.** on mobile Our data validates the belief that gamers, similar to all users, leverage mobile 27% devices as secondary screens, often using those devices in conjunction with other larger screens, such as televisions, desktops, or laptops. We discovered that 23% of all tips-related searches during launch month and 27% of all tips-related of tips searches during post-launch searches during post-launch take place on mobile. Thus, gamers are using mobile happen on mobile devices to locate tips, cheats, hints, and walkthroughs while they are actually playing video games. Mobile Matters Now Digital interaction on mobile devices with the Chart 9 | Annual Search Device Distribution biggest tittles is becoming more and more Desktop Search Mobile Search popular among gamers. Chart 9 shows that 2010 2011 mobile search doubled its share of platform 10% searches in 2011, such that 1 in 10 searches 5% happened on mobile devices. 95% 90% Part 2: Exploring the Predictive Power of Search – From Digital Engagement to Physical Sales Search. Click. Purchase. A search, at its core, signifies a user’s request for more information. After entering a request in the search engine box, a user encounters a page of results showing multiple links that lead to various content sources. At this point, a user has the option to click on any of the appropriate search results. A click, therefore, represents a user’s decision to further engage with a content source. Due to the millions of searches that occur for triple-A titles, we naturally wondered if the millions of associated AdWords clicks – each click a signal of continued engagement – were somehow predictive of top-tier game unit sales. To address this question, we aggregated and analyzed AdWords clicks on brand keywords and unit sales for the top 25 selling games of 2011, according to NPD.*** Click data was segmented by time period in relation to launch month to determine if there is any particular time when clicks are more or less predictive of game unit sales. *The buy search category includes purchase-related terms combined with major game retailers, such as Best Buy, Walmart, GameStop, Amazon, and more. 5 **Video Game Purchase Behavior, Ipsos OTX, 2012. ***NPD console video game POS data, 2011. Note on methodology: we looked at the top 25 console titles by units sold, and excluded fitness & dance titles because they have a different audience of non-core gamers. A 'click' was counted every time someone searched for the title of one of these games, an ad was served against that query, and the searcher clicked that ad. It does not discriminate between clicks on ads paid for by the publisher of that game and ads paid for by a third party, such as GameStop or Walmart. We believe this is still a sound analysis, because the click is still an indication of interest and intent on the part of the searcher.
  • 6. Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights We ran correlation analysis to find out whether there is a relationship between clicks and game units sold, and then conducted a single-variable regression analysis to see if clicks could actually be used to predict game sales. Our data reveals a .92 correlation (on a scale of -1 to 1,1 signifies perfect correlation) between clicks during the 10 month game launch cycle and game units sold during the first 4 months post-release, as illustrated in chart 10. Chart 10 | AdWords Clicks + Game Unit Sales Correlation AdWords Clicks Unit Sales 7 1,800,000 Indexed AdWords Clicks 1,600,000 Game Unit Sales 6 1,400,000 5 1,200,000 4 1,000,000 3 800,000 600,000 2 400,000 1 200,000 0 0 Launch -3 Launch -2 Launch -1 Launch Launch +2 Launch +3 Launch +4 Month 2-4MM More importantly, our data demonstrates that 84% of sales can be predicted by all clicks during the 10 month launch cycle. We used the regression coefficient from our analysis to create a predictive model and found that if a game accrues 250,000 predicted range of unit sales clicks in the 10 months around launch, it will likely sell between for games that garner 250,000 2 and 4 million units in the first four months after release. Chart AdWords brand clicks in the 11 displays the predicted range of game unit sales based on the 10 months around launch number of AdWords clicks on game title keywords. Chart 11 | AdWords Clicks + Predicted Game Unit Sales Upper Limit Lower Limit 4,500,000 4,000,000 Game Unit Sales 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000 200,000 225,000 250,000 275,000 AdWords Clicks Although user click data is a powerful predictor of game unit sales, we readily acknowledge that other factors – such as game quality, TV investment, online display investment, social buzz, and more – must be incorporated into our analysis to create a predictive model that is even more accurate and reliable. In the future, we plan to include such factors in a multi-variate model. 6
  • 7. Google Whitepaper | Industry Perspectives + User Insights Conclusion: Implications for the Gaming Community Gamers increasingly leverage desktops and mobile devices to interact with marquee titles, actively conducting millions of searches to help them navigate the modern gaming landscape. In a world of ever-expanding choices, search helps them decide what to buy, learn how to play better, and even connect to the larger community surrounding their favorite game. This ever present relationship between gamer and game may be digital, but it has implications for real-world sales. There is a quantifiable link between what people search for and what they buy that enables us to predict game sales. Digital tools, such as search, offer gamers the unique ability to directly reach out to publishers and retailers. Publishers and retailers, in turn, have a tremendous opportunity to drive even stronger results by reaching back to gamers. Retailers can maximize game sales, from pre-orders to DLC, by delivering key content to gamers at the right moments across multiple devices. The publisher of the future can successfully grow their brands by controlling and facilitating meaningful, ongoing conversations with their fans from announce to launch, and beyond. Special thanks to Adam Stewart, Nishad Pai, Sam Franklin, and Matt Seitz for contributing to this whitepaper. 7