The strategy of structural reforms in Uzbekistan is prepared to enhance the effectiveness of development efforts towards supporting the Republic of Uzbekistan in its aspirations to become an idustrialized upper middle-income country by the year 2030 through policy dialogue and development of a long-term strategy.

1. China, December 18, 2014
Center for Economic Research (Uzbekistan)

2. Economic Growth and
Structural Transformation
Achievements:
• High rates of economic growth,
even during the period of global
financial crisis.
• Significant increase in the share
of industry and services while
reducing the share of agriculture
in GDP.
• Diversification of the export
structure, reducing the share of
cotton and increasing the share
of goods with higher added
value.
26,3
17,1 14,2
21,1 23,9 24 24,2
37,3
28,1 30,1
26,3 18,0 17,6 17,6
36,7
41,7 43,2 42 48,9 50,1 50,2
13,1 12,5 10,6 9,2 8,3 8
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013
GDP structure , %
Net taxes on products
Services
Agriculture
Industry
48,4
27,5
19,1
11,3 9,3
1,7
5,4
3,8
9,7 10,9
2,5
2,9
5,3 5,1 5,6
4,7 10,3
11,5
24,8 34,6
6,6
9,2
6,8
7,848,4
3,4 8,4
5,5
6,5
7,7
13,7 12,2
9,1
17,3
21,3
30,2 30,5 27,7
12,5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
Structure of export, %
Other
Services
machinery and equipment
ferrous and non-ferrous
metals
energy and oil products
Chemical products
Food products
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
Dynamics of Economics growth and investment
GDP (growth, %) Investment (% to GDP)

3. Infrastructure Development
Achievement :
• Extension of the length of roads and
railways.
• Significant increase in providing
access to water and Natural gas for
population.
• Dynamic development of IT sector.
Public roads with hard surface
Public Railways
Transportation of passengers
Freight
190 326 572 1146
2714
5873
12978
16375
22700
25441
2027421500
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mobile and Internet users
Number of mobile users (thousands)
Number of Internet users (thousands)
76,1
83,580,4
87
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Access to water and gas, %
Natural gas
Drinking water

4. Living Standards and Population’s Welfare
Achievements:
• Significant decrease in poverty level.
• Dynamic development of small business and
entrepreneurship.
• Decreasing level of disparities in people’s
income
GDP per capita on PPP
Money income per capita on PPP
Gini coefficient, right scale
SB share in GDP, %
Single tax rate (%), left scale
Employment, %
104,2 108,4 112,9 121,3 129,8
139,5
152,7
166,5
180,0
195,3
212,0
229,4
248,2
27,0
16,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
Dynamics of Economic growth and Poverty reduction
GDP (2000=100), left scale Poverty level, %

5. Quality of Human Capital
Achievements:
• High level of expenditures for social purposes
• Significant decrease in maternal and infant
mortality
• Increase in life expectancy
Share of expenditures on social sphere and security (% to total
state budget expenditures)
Dynamics of GDP growth (2000=100)
Education expenditures, public (% of GDP)
500,0
550,0
600,0
650,0
700,0
750,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Maternal and Infant mortality
Birth (thousands), right scale
Maternal Mortality (per 100 000 live birth)
Infant mortality (per 1,000 live birth)
67,4
70,7
73,5
75,5
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Life expectancy, years
Male Female

6. Growth rates towards 2020 and beyond
Considering Scenarios
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
2010 2020 2030
KENYA
VIETNAM
MOROCCO
BULGARIA
AZERBAIJAN
UZBEKISTAN
PERU
SRI LANKA
THAILAND
ALGERIA
4 % growth
6 % growth
8 % growth
8 % growth
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
6% growth
Morocco
Vietnam
4% growth
Vietnam
Kenya

7. Long-term development challenges :
production structure of GDP
Challenges:
• To increase the share of industry in GDP from 35,4% in 2010
to 37% requires ensuring annual industrial growth rate at
8.3%.
• An urgent task is to increase the share of processing industry
in the GDP. Increasing the level from 9% in 2010 to 15% by
2030 requires the achievement of annual growth rates of
added cost in processing at 11.3% point with an average
annual growth rate in mining industries at the 5% level.
• In order to increase the share of services in GDP from 42.5%
in 2010 to 56% in 2030, an average annual growth rate of
added value in this sector should reach 9.2%.
• Providing the average annual growth rate of added cost in
agriculture at 2.6% level would reduce its share in GDP from
19.5% to 8%.

8. Long-term development challenges:
Investments and Economic Growth
Government priorities:
• Achievement of an annual economic growth at
8% in the long term requires the share of
investment in GDP about 30%, which implies
annual investments growth at the level of 9.4%.
• Ensuring the annual investments growth rate at
the level of 9.4% requires annual increase of
gross savings at 11.3%.
• Re-orientation of investment flows from mining
to processing industries is necessary.
China
High income
India
Korea Middle Income
Singapore
Slovak
Thailand
Uzbekistan
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Grossfixedcapitalformation(%
ofGDP)
GDP growth (annual %)
GDP growth and Investment (%),
avr. 2001-2010
energy
metallurgy
mechanical engineering
light industry
food industry
construction materials
chemical and petrochemical industry
other

9. Long-term development challenges:
Financial sector
Government Priorities:
• To facilitate financing of investment activities and strengthen the
role of the financial sector in this process, the rate of monetization
of the economy and the share of bank credits in GDP should reach
almost 100%. This requires an annual growth of economy
monetization and increase of bank credits at 17%.
• Increasing the level of capitalization of listed companies up to 70%
of GDP implies ensuring the rate of annual growth at 35%.
• The policy of the Government of Uzbekistan aims at addressing
these issues. In particular, if in 2000 the level of economy
monetization was at 12.2%, the figures for 2005 formed 15.1%,
and for 2010 - 19.4%. Only in 2011 a turnover of the stock market
increased by more than 3 times.

10. Long-term development challenges:
Foreign Trade
Challenges:
• Ensuring the average annual economic growth rate at 8%
level requires growth of exports at 10% on average every
year. As a result, by 2030 the volume of merchandise export
will increase up to 79.4 billion dollars in prices of 2010. With
an average annual growth of processing export by 15.3%
during 2012-2020, and by 17.9% in 2021-2030 (the
extractive industries - 8.3 and 4.0% respectively), the share of
processing industries will increase in merchandise exports up
to 60% by 2030.
• To ensure the dynamic export growth, measures on reducing
the cost of exports and imports by constructing alternative
transit corridors and optimizing customs procedures should
be taken, which will reduce the cost of exports and imports,
respectively, 2500 and 2875 dollars per container.
3,1
14,1
18,7
48,4
61,3
67,2
73,2
89,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AZE KAZ UZB Lower
middle
income
Upper
middle
income
MYS OECD KOR
Manufactures exports
(% of merchandise exports)(2009)

11. Long-term development challenges:
Agriculture
Issues:
• High growth rates of manufacturing and services will reduce the share
of agriculture in GDP, while agriculture will be developed with an
average annual rate at 3.3%, strengthening the country's food security.
This is especially important for:
• Strengthening food security
• Facilitating diversification
• Assisting productive employment
• Increasing volume of local demand for manufacturing goods
• Decrease of the share of agriculture in GDP for 2011-2030 years from
17.5 to 8.0% and a reducing the level of population employed in
agriculture from 25.2 to 15.4% should go in line with creation of new
jobs through development of manufacturing and services in urban
villages and small cities.
• As a result - accelerated urbanization process, leading lead to decrease
of the rural population from 48.5% in 2010 to 37.0% in 2030.

12. Long-term Development Challenges :
Education, Innovations and IT
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Uzbekistan: ICT Development
число персональных
компьютеров (на 100
чел.)
число конвергентных
устройств
пропускная способность
внешнего интернет
канала (Тбит/с), правая
шкала
Challenges:
• Developing a system of education, forming a
creative and innovative thinking
• Establishing institutions of the innovation
system, which provides efficient
transformation of innovative ideas into
commercial and socially important products.
• Providing high-speed access to global
knowledge and information, which
contributes to modernizing society and
accelerates process of following the global
ideas and trends
Number of PC (per 100
people)
Number of convergent
facilities
Bandwidth of external
Internet channel (Tbit/sec),
right scale

13. Long-term Development Challenges:
Public Health and Healthy Generation
Challenges:
• High rates of economic growth and real income will lead to
increased demand for health services.
• Further development of the health care system, providing
modern medical and diagnostic equipment, requires an
increase in expenditures for health
• Increasing share of older population in the age structure,
also requires increased spending on healthcare.
• Addressing this challenges requires creating of favorable
conditions for development of alternative financing
recourses of the sector, including medical insurance.

14. Uzbekistan 1991-2012
Strengthened State, Stabilized economy, Structural reforms
• Creating basic institutions of an
independent state
• Introducing basic institutions and
principles of market based
economy
• National currency
• Prices liberalization
• Direct government support of
real sector enterprises
• SME privatization
• Creating a new system of social
protection
• …
1991 - 1995
Overcoming Economic
Recession
1996 - 2003
Recovering Growth and
Launching Structural Reforms
2004 - 2012
Стабилизация экономики и
умеренный рост
Deepening Structural reforms
and Accelerating Growth
• Achievement of grain and energy
independence
• Expanding privatization process,
including large enterprises
involving strategic investors
• Creation of new large industrial
enterprises
• Localization programs in the
industrial sector
• Reforming the management
system of the economy sectors
• Launching the National Training
Programme
• …
• Creating incentives for export
• Improving conditions for
development of small business
and entrepreneurship
• Sectoral modernization
programs
• Stimulating industrial
cooperation
• Creating free economic zones,
transport and logistics hubs
• Wide use of ICT in different areas
• …

15. Uzbekistan 2030
Transformed Economy and State
for the prosperous development, harmonious society and secure future
Sustaining peace
and security
Changing the
pattern of growth
and the structure
of national
economy
Building effective
Institutions to
drive the
accelerated
transformation
Creating human
capital for the
changing
economy, state
and society
Building
harmonious
society, united
on its way
forward
• Enhanced regulatory framework
• Reduced transaction costs of
business
• Favorable conditions created for
formation of large business groups
• Encourage savings, and their
transformation into investment
• …
• Attraction of high technologies,
increase the share of high-tech
industries in production and export
structure
• Creating favorable conditions for
expansion of private funding of
modernization processes
• ….
SETTING PRIORITIES
DEVELOPING A ROAD MAP TOWARD 2020 AND BEYOND
• Expanding production of goods and
services with high added value
• Transition to an innovation
economy/knowledge-based
economy
• Development of tools to promote
Uzbekistan’s geo-economic interests
• …
2012 - 2015 2020 - 20302016 - 2020
Modernizing basic sectors Developing processing industry Foreign trade and integration
to the global economy

16. https://www.facebook.com/CER.Uzbekistan
Visit us for more info:
http://www.cer.uz
CER’s Flagship Initiatives of 2014:
Looking beyond the horizon:
guidelines and best practices in
formulating national visions
http://vision.cer.uz
Uzbekistan Towards 2030: A New
Social Protection Model for a Changing
Economy and Society
Food Security in 2025: Availability,
Accessibility and Nutrition
Thank you!