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                 www.convergeproject.org


Rethinking globalisation in the light of Contraction
              and CONVERGEnce

              Vala Ragnarsdottir
    Dean of Engineering and Natural Sciences
              University of Iceland
The CONVERGE team here today
• From the University of Iceland – in addition to me
  – SigrúnMaríaKristinsdóttir
  – Charlotte JónsdóttirBiering
• From the University of Lund, Sweden
  – Harald Sverdrup
  – DenizKoca
• From the Schumacher Institute, Bristol
  –   Ian Roderick
  –   Alice Marie Archer
  –   Emmelie Brownlee
  –   Julia
Converge: Progress towards equity
  within the Earth’s biophysical
            boundaries
The aim of the CONVERGE project

• Develop the idea of CONVERGE with societal,
  economic and ecological perspectives in
  connection to globalisation
• Test CONVERGE as a framework for holistic
  indicators
• Evaluate whether national, EU and international
  policies and agreements are opposite or support
  convergence processes and test the CONVERGE
  framework with communities and stakeholders
Aims cont.

• Evaluate how different methods of community
  engagement can work towards the development
  of sustainable communities in the North and
  South, and test the CONVERGE framework with
  stakeholders
• Find convergence methodologies from case
  studies
• Use interdisciplinary methodologies to evaluate
  outcomes, and develop new understanding in
  acrossdisciplinary framework
Aims cont.

• Recommend how CONVERGE can fit into the
  inner and outer policies of the EU
• Distribute CONVERGE to different users
  through a variety of media
Focus on food

• Communities tested
  – Iceland (an island – 320,000 people)
  – Bristol city (400,000 people)
  – Villages in Tamil Nadu (SCAD)

  – Communities where framework presented
     • Lund, Sweden
     • Gödöllö, Hungary
Stakeholder workshops

• 3 workshops with systems analysis inbetween

• One meeting where framework presented

• Systems dynamics model given to participants
Methodology to develop the
 CONVERGE framework:
    systems thinking


    • The Natural Step
    • The ISIS compass
    • Systems analysis
      – Systems dynamics


    • Stakeholder workshops
How do we use the Earh´s resources and an equitable manner?




                                                              Sverdrup et al.
Ecological
 footprint
The Earth isshrinking




         1900         1950          1987        2005        2030    2050
        7.91         5.15          2.60         2.02        1.69   1.44




                                        YEAR
                             Hectar of surface per person

Ecological footprint = the land we need to provide daily needs and take up the
waste. Now we are using 1.5 Earths per year.
Rockström et al. 2009
                                     Climate change
              Pollution
                                                   Ocean acidification



    Atmospheric
                                                               Ozon in
    areosols
                                                               stratosphere



                                                              Cycling of N
     Biodiversity loss
                                                           Cycling of P
                          Land use
                          change       Water use


  Earth boundaries – we have surpassed 3 of 9
McDonalds



                                           Tourists


                                           Telephones
                                  Urban      Paper
Polulation   GDP   Dams   Water   population use
                          use

                                                        Car
                                                        transport

7 billion people
Perpetualgrowth?




           Sverdrup og Ragnarsdottir 2011
Peakenergy
                         Oil 2005
   Coal 2015




               Global energy2020



                                    ASPO
Gold 2000    Silver 2030   Copper 2040



                                                 Hubberts
 Zinc 2030     Lead 2020    Indium 2050       ,,peak” curves
                                             for 12 keymetals

Iron 2030    Molybdenum     Chromium 2050
             2050



Nickel 2050 Platinum        Phosphate 2000
            2030




                                      SverdrupRagnarsdottirKoca2011
PeakfishPeakphosphate…

Fishing             Phosphate




   2000
              Sverdrup og Ragnarsdottir 2011
From cradle to grave – to cradle to cradle




                            Biomimickry
Other important problems

• Financial systems that don´t understand natural
  limits

• Greed
• Corruption
Humanneeds


 Subsis-                 Partici-
             Idleness
  tence                  pation



                          Under-
Protection   Affection
                         standing



Creation     Identity    Freedom


                                          Manfred Max-Neef et al
Cycles of nature
Open system with
respect to energy
                                                               Closed system with
                                                               respect to matter
                                                               1) Nothing disappears
                                                               2) Everything disperses

    « Photosynthesis
    pays the bill »
                               Sustainability is
                              about the ability of
                               human society to
                                   continue
                              indefinitely within
                                 these natural
                                    cycles


     Slow geological cycles                          Slow geological cycles
     (volcanoeruptions and                           (sedimentation and
     weathering)                                     mineralization)
How we influence cycles

   Physicallyinhibitn
   ature’sability to
   run cycles

                            Barriers to
                          people meeting
                             their basic
                          needsworldwide
                                           Introduce persistent
                                           compounds foreign to
Large flows of                             nature
materials from the
Earth’s crust
TNS system conditions: In a sustainable society
  We’ve eliminated our contribution to…

 ...the systematic increase in concentrations of substances
   from the Earth’s crust,

 ...the systematic increase in concentrations
     ofsubstances produced by society,

 ...the systematic increase of physical degradation and
     destructions of natural systems,
 ...to conditions that systematically undermine people’s
    capacity to meet their needs.
From vision to action plans




           Creative
           Solutions                    Future




Baseline


                       Prioritisation
Think out of the box

  ,,We cannot solve problems by using
    the same way of thinking as we had
    when we created them”
                   Albert Einstein
Sustainability is...

          A set of conditions and trends
in a given system that can
continue indefinitely




                                     AtKisson 2008
Sustainable development is...


         A directed process of
     continuous innovation and
          systemic change
  in the direction of sustainability




                                       AtKisson 2008
Sustainablity compass– indicators
• N =Nature
Environment, resources, ecosystems,
  climate, cultivation

• A = Economy
  Production, consumption,
  employment, energy, fertiliser
                                          Nature

• S = Society                             Economy
                                          Society
  Government, culture, institutions,      Well being
  schools, common issues, education
  for sustainability, nature protection
  in constitution, voters

• V = Well being
  Individual health, families,
  education level, quality of life,
  happiness, healthy food
                                                       AtKisson 2008
Steps towards sustainability
 •   Think long term
 •   Understand systems
 •   Know limits
 •   Protect nature
 •   Change commerce
 •   Show equity
 •   Support innovation



                           (AtKisson 2008)
Systems thinker

• Looks for the big picture
• Looks for the cycle that links cause and effect
• Sees how things change with time
• Looks for new angles
• Evaluates the effect of short term and long term
  actions
• Finds unexpectedafleiðingar


                                             AtKisson 2008
Soil + rock + oil = people




                 Ragnarsdottir og Sverdrup 2010
Closing the nutrient cycles




                 Ragnarsdottir og Sverdrup 2010
Organic farming – Vallanes NE Iceland




                          Agroforestry
How much food can we produce in
           cities?
      Vision of Herbert Girardet
Cuba – city cultivation
• Cuba went through
“peak oil” 20 years ago
  - Learned Permaculture
  – Up to 90% of vegetables
    cultivated in cities and
    towns
  – Car parks, gardens, roofs,
    pateos, balconies
  – Peoples health has
    improved
  – Communities have
    strengthened
Your brainstorming now

• An huge eruption has lasted for 3 months in
  Iceland.
• All flights in the northern hemisphere are off.
• Oil is expensive and few ships arrive with food;
  few trucks distribute food to supermarkets.
• The city of Bristol and nearby counties have a
  joint emergency meeting and decide that all food
  needs be produced in Bristol and its bioregion.
• The question is how?
Spaceship Bristol-bioregion

1. Imagine sustainable Bristol
  1. How does it look like?


2. Where are we now? (baseline) – remember that
   the baseline today is not the same as after a 3
   month eruption in Iceland

3. Then find steps from the future to the present
   (connect step 1 to step 2)
Coffee break
Dig for victory



Remember how the gardens were
  changed from flower beds to
vegetable patches during the war!

 Talk to your mothers/grandmothers!
Conventional fertilizer

• N:P:K in different proportions

• When phosphate mines empty and energy is
  limited – what fertiliser will we use?
A few suggestions

• Close all cycles

• Waste from one process used as resource for
  another

• Societal equity is prevalent
CONVERGE principles

• Convergence for sustainability is the progress towards human equity
  within biological planetary boundaries.
• In a converging society, every global citizen has the right to a fair share
  of the Earth’s bio-capacity and the opportunity for secured human
  wellbeing.
• In a converging society, people have the opportunity to meet their basic
  human needs.
• In a converging society, nature is systematically cared for, maintained
  and restored.
• A converging society is aware of the fact that everything humans have
  and use comes from nature. In a converging society, nature’s resource
  inflow to society is recognized and the focus is on using resources in the
  least harmful way possible.
• A converging society deals with its outflow (waste), using the four R’s as
  a guideline – reduce, recycle, refuse and reuse. It is a circular society (as
  opposed to a throw-away society) that has learned from nature.
Principles cont

• A converging society is aware of the fact that
  everything humans have and use comes from
  nature.
• In a converging society, nature’s resource inflow
  to society is recognized and the focus is on using
  resources in the least harmful way possible.
Principles cont.

• A converging society deals with its outflow
  (waste), using the four R’s as a guideline –
  reduce, recycle, refuse and reuse. It is a circular
  society (as opposed to a throw-away society) that
  has learned from nature.
Harald and Deniz take over

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Bristol Converge food sector workshop 1 introduction

  • 1. www www.convergeproject.org Rethinking globalisation in the light of Contraction and CONVERGEnce Vala Ragnarsdottir Dean of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland
  • 2.
  • 3. The CONVERGE team here today • From the University of Iceland – in addition to me – SigrúnMaríaKristinsdóttir – Charlotte JónsdóttirBiering • From the University of Lund, Sweden – Harald Sverdrup – DenizKoca • From the Schumacher Institute, Bristol – Ian Roderick – Alice Marie Archer – Emmelie Brownlee – Julia
  • 4. Converge: Progress towards equity within the Earth’s biophysical boundaries
  • 5. The aim of the CONVERGE project • Develop the idea of CONVERGE with societal, economic and ecological perspectives in connection to globalisation • Test CONVERGE as a framework for holistic indicators • Evaluate whether national, EU and international policies and agreements are opposite or support convergence processes and test the CONVERGE framework with communities and stakeholders
  • 6. Aims cont. • Evaluate how different methods of community engagement can work towards the development of sustainable communities in the North and South, and test the CONVERGE framework with stakeholders • Find convergence methodologies from case studies • Use interdisciplinary methodologies to evaluate outcomes, and develop new understanding in acrossdisciplinary framework
  • 7. Aims cont. • Recommend how CONVERGE can fit into the inner and outer policies of the EU • Distribute CONVERGE to different users through a variety of media
  • 8. Focus on food • Communities tested – Iceland (an island – 320,000 people) – Bristol city (400,000 people) – Villages in Tamil Nadu (SCAD) – Communities where framework presented • Lund, Sweden • Gödöllö, Hungary
  • 9. Stakeholder workshops • 3 workshops with systems analysis inbetween • One meeting where framework presented • Systems dynamics model given to participants
  • 10. Methodology to develop the CONVERGE framework: systems thinking • The Natural Step • The ISIS compass • Systems analysis – Systems dynamics • Stakeholder workshops
  • 11. How do we use the Earh´s resources and an equitable manner? Sverdrup et al.
  • 13. The Earth isshrinking 1900 1950 1987 2005 2030 2050 7.91 5.15 2.60 2.02 1.69 1.44 YEAR Hectar of surface per person Ecological footprint = the land we need to provide daily needs and take up the waste. Now we are using 1.5 Earths per year.
  • 14. Rockström et al. 2009 Climate change Pollution Ocean acidification Atmospheric Ozon in areosols stratosphere Cycling of N Biodiversity loss Cycling of P Land use change Water use Earth boundaries – we have surpassed 3 of 9
  • 15. McDonalds Tourists Telephones Urban Paper Polulation GDP Dams Water population use use Car transport 7 billion people
  • 16. Perpetualgrowth? Sverdrup og Ragnarsdottir 2011
  • 17. Peakenergy Oil 2005 Coal 2015 Global energy2020 ASPO
  • 18. Gold 2000 Silver 2030 Copper 2040 Hubberts Zinc 2030 Lead 2020 Indium 2050 ,,peak” curves for 12 keymetals Iron 2030 Molybdenum Chromium 2050 2050 Nickel 2050 Platinum Phosphate 2000 2030 SverdrupRagnarsdottirKoca2011
  • 19. PeakfishPeakphosphate… Fishing Phosphate 2000 Sverdrup og Ragnarsdottir 2011
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. From cradle to grave – to cradle to cradle Biomimickry
  • 23. Other important problems • Financial systems that don´t understand natural limits • Greed • Corruption
  • 24.
  • 25. Humanneeds Subsis- Partici- Idleness tence pation Under- Protection Affection standing Creation Identity Freedom Manfred Max-Neef et al
  • 26. Cycles of nature Open system with respect to energy Closed system with respect to matter 1) Nothing disappears 2) Everything disperses « Photosynthesis pays the bill » Sustainability is about the ability of human society to continue indefinitely within these natural cycles Slow geological cycles Slow geological cycles (volcanoeruptions and (sedimentation and weathering) mineralization)
  • 27. How we influence cycles Physicallyinhibitn ature’sability to run cycles Barriers to people meeting their basic needsworldwide Introduce persistent compounds foreign to Large flows of nature materials from the Earth’s crust
  • 28. TNS system conditions: In a sustainable society We’ve eliminated our contribution to… ...the systematic increase in concentrations of substances from the Earth’s crust, ...the systematic increase in concentrations ofsubstances produced by society, ...the systematic increase of physical degradation and destructions of natural systems, ...to conditions that systematically undermine people’s capacity to meet their needs.
  • 29. From vision to action plans Creative Solutions Future Baseline Prioritisation
  • 30. Think out of the box ,,We cannot solve problems by using the same way of thinking as we had when we created them” Albert Einstein
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. Sustainability is... A set of conditions and trends in a given system that can continue indefinitely AtKisson 2008
  • 34. Sustainable development is... A directed process of continuous innovation and systemic change in the direction of sustainability AtKisson 2008
  • 35. Sustainablity compass– indicators • N =Nature Environment, resources, ecosystems, climate, cultivation • A = Economy Production, consumption, employment, energy, fertiliser Nature • S = Society Economy Society Government, culture, institutions, Well being schools, common issues, education for sustainability, nature protection in constitution, voters • V = Well being Individual health, families, education level, quality of life, happiness, healthy food AtKisson 2008
  • 36. Steps towards sustainability • Think long term • Understand systems • Know limits • Protect nature • Change commerce • Show equity • Support innovation (AtKisson 2008)
  • 37. Systems thinker • Looks for the big picture • Looks for the cycle that links cause and effect • Sees how things change with time • Looks for new angles • Evaluates the effect of short term and long term actions • Finds unexpectedafleiðingar AtKisson 2008
  • 38. Soil + rock + oil = people Ragnarsdottir og Sverdrup 2010
  • 39. Closing the nutrient cycles Ragnarsdottir og Sverdrup 2010
  • 40. Organic farming – Vallanes NE Iceland Agroforestry
  • 41. How much food can we produce in cities? Vision of Herbert Girardet
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45. Cuba – city cultivation • Cuba went through “peak oil” 20 years ago - Learned Permaculture – Up to 90% of vegetables cultivated in cities and towns – Car parks, gardens, roofs, pateos, balconies – Peoples health has improved – Communities have strengthened
  • 46. Your brainstorming now • An huge eruption has lasted for 3 months in Iceland. • All flights in the northern hemisphere are off. • Oil is expensive and few ships arrive with food; few trucks distribute food to supermarkets. • The city of Bristol and nearby counties have a joint emergency meeting and decide that all food needs be produced in Bristol and its bioregion. • The question is how?
  • 47. Spaceship Bristol-bioregion 1. Imagine sustainable Bristol 1. How does it look like? 2. Where are we now? (baseline) – remember that the baseline today is not the same as after a 3 month eruption in Iceland 3. Then find steps from the future to the present (connect step 1 to step 2)
  • 49. Dig for victory Remember how the gardens were changed from flower beds to vegetable patches during the war! Talk to your mothers/grandmothers!
  • 50. Conventional fertilizer • N:P:K in different proportions • When phosphate mines empty and energy is limited – what fertiliser will we use?
  • 51. A few suggestions • Close all cycles • Waste from one process used as resource for another • Societal equity is prevalent
  • 52. CONVERGE principles • Convergence for sustainability is the progress towards human equity within biological planetary boundaries. • In a converging society, every global citizen has the right to a fair share of the Earth’s bio-capacity and the opportunity for secured human wellbeing. • In a converging society, people have the opportunity to meet their basic human needs. • In a converging society, nature is systematically cared for, maintained and restored. • A converging society is aware of the fact that everything humans have and use comes from nature. In a converging society, nature’s resource inflow to society is recognized and the focus is on using resources in the least harmful way possible. • A converging society deals with its outflow (waste), using the four R’s as a guideline – reduce, recycle, refuse and reuse. It is a circular society (as opposed to a throw-away society) that has learned from nature.
  • 53. Principles cont • A converging society is aware of the fact that everything humans have and use comes from nature. • In a converging society, nature’s resource inflow to society is recognized and the focus is on using resources in the least harmful way possible.
  • 54. Principles cont. • A converging society deals with its outflow (waste), using the four R’s as a guideline – reduce, recycle, refuse and reuse. It is a circular society (as opposed to a throw-away society) that has learned from nature.
  • 55. Harald and Deniz take over

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Feel free to use this as well if you want toWe are in overshoot – living beyond our means.
  2. We also know that the system is... ...a closed system to matter ...an open system to energy (from the sun, heat being let out into space) ...has some very slow geological cycles where materials are introduced to the biosphere slowly through volcanos, erosion... but taken out of the biosphere at abou the same (or more quickly) rate through sedimentation, etc natures cycles is also slowIn essence this means that sustainability menas that society exists within these cycles and that the cycles can go on indefinetely.
  3. (Include here or not?)Here’s one example of the type of needs that we are referring to.
  4. So, if we know all of these things about how the system works, then we can also tell how the system can be overloaded.You’ve done the e-learning, so you should be ableto help out. There are four things that are causing unsustainability, what are they?(Allow the audince to answer and then go through them one by one)----------------Note: I ahven’t checked the text below) ------------------------------ -So, how are we overloading the system?1. We are taking more out of the ground than is going back in – metals and minerals that are scare in nature that are toxifying the system. We are releasing billions of years of sequestered materials over a short period of time into the biosphere. Nature cannot tolerate this as these substances are either directly toxic to the living system or they alter the conditions needed to support life.And instead of redesigning society to come to grips with the problem, we try to ”fix” impact after impact amongst the ”leaves” as they surface – phosphates in lakes, carbondioxide in the atmosphere, sulphourus acid rain, cadmium in kidney’s…And myriads of unknown impacts are looming in the future from increasing concentrations of silver, zinc, platina…all approaching unknown ecotoxic thresholds for impacts.2. We are emitting more waste products than nature can process, with a systematic accumulation of both solid and gaseous waste. Instead of correcting the principle design error, we try to ”fix” problems from nitrogen oxides in the sea, CFC’s in the atmosphere, pesticides on cropland, and endocrine disruptorsin our foods. 3. We are physically inhibiting the ability of nature to run its cycles by clogging up the system with excess toxins and by reducing nature’s restorative capacity - more and more asphalt on fertile land, lower and lower ground water tables from irrigation, more and more encroachment on marine systems from overfishing, and loss of biodiversity from deforestation. 4. Finally, the Societal economy is so designed that it destroys the social tissue. We mostly take care of our families, friends, and colleagues but we don’t see the consequences of our actions in other parts of the world – perhaps from suppliers in the developing world. We often and unintentionally don’t allow them to meet their needs, and act as if we didn’t understand that this will – sooner or later – lead to serious consequences, also from a self-beneficial point of view and just like with the destruction of the ecosystems.