This document discusses water security issues in the Himalayan region due to climate change impacts. It provides the following key points:
1) Major rivers like the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Indus originate from the Himalayas and their flows are heavily dependent on glacier melt. Warming trends are already impacting the basin hydrology.
2) Climate change is projected to reduce annual runoff in the Brahmaputra by 14% by 2050, exacerbating risks from floods and droughts. Glacier lake outburst floods also threaten communities as glaciers recede.
3) Collaborative action is needed across countries on issues like water governance, sharing hydrological data, disaster management
3. The Main Rivers & Their Basins
River River River Basin
Annual mean
discharge
(m3/sec)
% of glacier melt
in river flow
Basin area (km2) Population
density
(per/km2)
Yangtze 28,811 18 1,722,193 214
Brahmaputra 19,824 12 651,335 182
Ganges 18,691 9 1,016,124 401
Mekong 9,001 7 805,604 71
Irrawaddy 8,024 NA 413,710 79
Indus 5,533 45 1,081,718 165
Salween 1,494 9 271,914 22
Yellow 1,438 2 944,970 156
Amu Darya 1,376 NA 534,739 39
Tarim 1,262 50 1,152,448 7
Sources: IUCN et al 2003; Mi & Xie 2002; Chalise & Khanal 2001;
Merz 2004; Tarar 1982; Kumar et al 2007; Chen et al 2007
4. Warming over the Brahmaputra
Basin
• During 1971-2003 warming over the basin of
Yarlung Zangbo (Tsangpo) was 0.30°C per decade
(You Qinglong, 2007)
• This is significantly higher than the rate of increase
of the average temperature over India (0.22° C per
decade) in the same period (Kothawale and Rupa
Kumar, 2005)
5. Impact of Climate Change on
Water
• Intensified hydrological cycle => fewer rainy days
but more intense rainfall on those days
• in the long run, the annual runoff in the
Brahmaputra is projected to decline by 14 %
between now and 2050 (IPCC 2007c)
6. Number of climate related disasters
1900-2009
3526
357
616
4499
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Hydro-met Geological Biological Total
Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Leuven, Belgium
9. Emerging climate related risks -
GLOFs
“More than 40 lakes in the
Himalayas, formed from
rapidly melting glaciers, are
expected to burst their banks
in the next five years, sending
millions of gallons of water
and rock cascading on to
settlements in the valleys
below”.
ICIMOD study, Feb 2010
15. China’s Hydropower Projects in the
Brahmaputra Basin
• Two hydropower projects under construction at
Zangmu and Jiexu
• A third planned at Jiacha
• Construction related to hydropower projects started
at three more sites
• There are reports of 30 other projects planned, but
the Chinese government has so far declined to
share any information about them
16. India’s Hydropower Projects in the
Brahmaputra Basin
• 70 large dams have been proposed by the Indian
Government in the main stream and major
tributaries of the Brahmaputra
– Siang (20)
– Lohit (11)
– Dibang (17)
– Subansiri (22)
• And there are many more run-of-the-river
hydropower projects
17. The Questions
• How are instability and conflict in fragile states
exacerbated by future and existing climate
impacts? (real world examples would be great)
• How are existing national and regional institutions
equipped and informed to address instability and
conflict in fragile states?
• How can current adaptation resources be deployed
more effectively in fragile states?
• How can the media play a better role in promoting
peaceful responses to climate change?
18. The Problem
• Policymakers, academics, NGOs, Media work in
silos, adding to prevalent distrust. Few traditional
channels of communication
• The biggest example: Water sharing between
– India and Pakistan
– China, India, Bhutan and Bangladesh
– Nepal, India and Bangladesh
– China, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam
– China and Myanmar
– Many countries in Central Asia
19. • Improved collaboration between regional
scientists, policy makers, and civil society
on water governance and climate change
issues
• Shift thinking around river-basin
development and climate change issues
from narrow national security concerns
to a regional perspective that includes
ecological and social concerns
What Do We Need?
20. • Higher quality local analysis of environmental
threats to look for regional mitigation and
adaptation opportunities
• Increased transparency and accountability in
water governance
• Incorporate voices of poor and marginalised
communities into policy debates
What Do We Need?
21. What Should We Do?
• Meteorological services and climatologists
have to work more closely with water
planners, irrigation managers and agricultural
extension services
22. What Should We Do?
Make changes in other policy fields, such as:
• migration and settlement
• transboundary cooperation
• land use planning, especially for construction
(e.g. avoiding high-risk and hazardous areas,
specifications for the elevation of the lowest
floor level, use of flood-resistant material)
• agriculture, especially irrigation development
• use of traditional knowledge (e.g. www.earik.in)
23. Understand that adaptation to climate change
isn’t only about specific response strategies. It is
also about
• understanding the levels of certainty in
climate trends, tipping points and stress
indicators
• communicating and policymaking in an era of
uncertainty
What More Should We Do?
24. • Stop working in silos, discuss all issues openly, bring
in the people who actually use the water every day
into the discussion
• Carry out studies on local impacts of climate change
• Shift our thinking to a river basin perspective,
irrespective of political boundaries e.g. River Basin
Atlas of India (http://www.india-wris.nrsc.gov.in/) is
an excellent planning tool but it stops at the borders
of India, which is what we need to avoid
We Need To
25. Our Solution
• Provide subject-focused online platforms for open
discussion
• Catalyze discussion on various issues e.g.
–climate change effects on water supply and
agriculture
–Effects of urbanization in different countries
–Attempts at sustainable tourism in different
countries
26. Our Solution
• Bring together all stakeholders, especially
journalists, through
–Media training workshops
–Field trips
–Sponsorship to conferences
–Organizing competitions etc.
• Always encourage participants to form online
discussion groups and be active in them
