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Country       Type of policy                      Ex of measures                          Result             Long-Term Consequences
                                  •   Goal = 1 child/woman                             Huge success      • Population expected to stabilize
                                  •   Marriage: higher legal age, easier divorce       CBR:                around 1.3 billion (2030)
  CHINA         Anti-natalist     •   Birth control easy/free                          37 (1960)         • Unbalanced sex ratio
“One-Child”     (very strict)     •   Incentives for one-child families                21 (1988)         • Spoiled single children (“little
                                  •   Punishments for 2+ children                      13 (2010)           emperors”)
                                  •   Exceptions allowed in villages (2+)                                • Rapid aging
                                  • Goal = 4 children/woman                            Little success    • Population explosion from 33M
                                  • Campaigns to promote family planning and           CBR:                (1950) to 150M (2010)!
                Anti-natalist       contraception                                      46 (1975)
 NIGERIA
              (voluntary basis)   • Age of marriage: 18 (girls)                        43 (2010)
                                  • Elimination of legal discrimination against
                                    women (employment, education)
                                  • The anti-natalist policy (“Stop at 2”) of the      Sharp decline     • TFR still below replacement rate
                                    1960s-70s was so successful (TFR = 1.4 in          in TFR until        today
                Anti-natalist       1987) that it lead to a reversal -> pro-natalist   1987, slow        • Rapid aging
SINGAPORE          Then             policy                                             increase since
                Pro-natalist      • “Love cruises” organized
                                  • Targets primarily educated/rich people


                                  •   Goal = 2 children/woman                          Modest            • India has reached 1B people, and
                                  •   Sterilization encouraged in 1970s (-> abuse)     success (except     expected to surpass China in 2030
                                  •   Contraception encouraged                         in Kerala)        • Increasing regional and social
                                  •   Information campaigns                            CBR:                differences (ex: Kerala vs Utta
                Anti-natalist
  INDIA                           •   Kerala: emphasis on rural female education       38 (1975)           Pradesh)
                 (lenient)
                                      and gender equality -> huge success              29 (1995)
                                                                                       24 (2010)



                                  • Goal = respect individual freedom                  Low TFR but       • TFR has increased slightly in the last
                 No formal
                                  • 1970: “National Family Planning” created in        immigration         20 years, but mainly due to the influx
              population policy
   USA                              1970 to provide services for teenagers                                 of young immigrants
              except migration
                                  • Birth control/abortion still debate in some                          • Aging of population
                    laws                                                                                                                   1
                                    conservative states
“One child encourages the Four modernizations (industry,
                agriculture, defense, technology)” (China, 1978)


China in 2000       Projection for 2050




                                                                           2
India:
“For a healthy family,
Wait 3 years before
planning a 2nd child”




                 India:
                 “big family” vs “small
                 family”




India:
“Why only a boy: are
there not girls?”




     USA: Family planning
     website of the State of
     Pennsylvania
                                          3

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II. Government responses

  • 1. Country Type of policy Ex of measures Result Long-Term Consequences • Goal = 1 child/woman Huge success • Population expected to stabilize • Marriage: higher legal age, easier divorce CBR: around 1.3 billion (2030) CHINA Anti-natalist • Birth control easy/free 37 (1960) • Unbalanced sex ratio “One-Child” (very strict) • Incentives for one-child families 21 (1988) • Spoiled single children (“little • Punishments for 2+ children 13 (2010) emperors”) • Exceptions allowed in villages (2+) • Rapid aging • Goal = 4 children/woman Little success • Population explosion from 33M • Campaigns to promote family planning and CBR: (1950) to 150M (2010)! Anti-natalist contraception 46 (1975) NIGERIA (voluntary basis) • Age of marriage: 18 (girls) 43 (2010) • Elimination of legal discrimination against women (employment, education) • The anti-natalist policy (“Stop at 2”) of the Sharp decline • TFR still below replacement rate 1960s-70s was so successful (TFR = 1.4 in in TFR until today Anti-natalist 1987) that it lead to a reversal -> pro-natalist 1987, slow • Rapid aging SINGAPORE Then policy increase since Pro-natalist • “Love cruises” organized • Targets primarily educated/rich people • Goal = 2 children/woman Modest • India has reached 1B people, and • Sterilization encouraged in 1970s (-> abuse) success (except expected to surpass China in 2030 • Contraception encouraged in Kerala) • Increasing regional and social • Information campaigns CBR: differences (ex: Kerala vs Utta Anti-natalist INDIA • Kerala: emphasis on rural female education 38 (1975) Pradesh) (lenient) and gender equality -> huge success 29 (1995) 24 (2010) • Goal = respect individual freedom Low TFR but • TFR has increased slightly in the last No formal • 1970: “National Family Planning” created in immigration 20 years, but mainly due to the influx population policy USA 1970 to provide services for teenagers of young immigrants except migration • Birth control/abortion still debate in some • Aging of population laws 1 conservative states
  • 2. “One child encourages the Four modernizations (industry, agriculture, defense, technology)” (China, 1978) China in 2000 Projection for 2050 2
  • 3. India: “For a healthy family, Wait 3 years before planning a 2nd child” India: “big family” vs “small family” India: “Why only a boy: are there not girls?” USA: Family planning website of the State of Pennsylvania 3