"El Futuro de la Tecnología y la Tecnología del Futuro", organizada por la Facultad de Sistemas Empresariales - Universidad Científica del Sur

1. José Luis Cordeiro
The Millennium Project
Director, Venezuela Node
Singularity University
NASA Ames, California, USA
IDE – JETRO, Tokyo, Japan (past 3 years)
Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea (next 3 years)
Lima, 17 de septiembre de 2011

3. The Millennium Project
40 Nodos en el mundo

4. The Millennium Project’s
15th Anniversary
Annual Report Card
on the Future
• Global Challenges
• State of the Future Index
• Egypt 2020
• Future Arts/Media 2020
• Latin America 2030
• Environmental Security
• Other Futures Research
Plus 8,000-page CD

5. El Desafío Latinoamericano

6. Development is faster and faster
La Escalera del Desarrollo
(Tiempo para duplicar el PIB por habitante)
La Escalera del Desarrollo
China, 1987-1994
Corea del Sur, 1978-1987
Es paña, 1950-1968
Ital ia, 1890-1911
J apón, 1885-1919
EUA, 1839-1886
Reino Uni do, 1780-1838
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Años

7. Mientras más rápido vamos,
más lejos necesitamos ver

8. Del Mediterráneo al Pacífico
500 years 5000 years
50 years ???

9. China
(中国)

14. A new face for the world

15. A new behind for the world

16. China: (Chung Kuo)

19. Singularity University

21. Ray Kurzweil (MIT):
The Singularity is Near
• www.singularity.com
• Bill Gates
• Ley de Moore

23. 23

24. 24

25. 25

29. Sequencing the genome: cost and time
Year Cost (US$) Time
2003 1,000,000.000 13 years
2007 100,000,000 4 years
2008 1,000,000 2 months
2009 10,000 4 weeks
2015 100 5 days
2020 10 8 hours

31. “Android” Google Phone (gPhone)

39. The 3 “waves” of Alvin Toffler
Knowledge revolution
Human resouces
Industrial revolution
Financial resources
Agricultural revolution
Natural resources

40. Japón: de sacapuntas malos a
computadoras buenas en 30 años

41. Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”
100%
80%
Future
Others
60%
Gas
Oil
40%
Coal
Wood
20%
0%
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

42. Towards a post-petroleum world
British Petroleum
Beyond Petroleum

43. • La Edad de Piedra se acabó y no
por falta de piedras, y la Edad
del Petróleo se acabará pronto y
no por falta de petróleo.
Jeque Yamani, 2000
Arabia Saudita

44. From manufacturing to mindfacturing

45. We need to add value

46. Finlandia
(siglo XIX)
•País pobre
•Atrasado
•Colonia
•Idioma “bárbaro”

47. Bioenergy and “eternal” energy
• Photosynthesis:
CO2 + 2 H2O + light
→ (CH2O) + O2 + H2O
• From fossil
hydrocarbons to live
carbohydrates
• Craig Venter and his
artificial bacteria

48. NASA: Space Solar Power Strategy
2002 2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
SSP Concept Complete Initial SSP Technology Research
Technology definition complete for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems
Studies & Proof-of- Testbeds
Concept
Technology Component-Level
Research (TRL 2-4) Proof-of-Concept
experiments
Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards Complete Initial R&D for
1 MW to Full-Scale SSP
Technology 10 kW 100 kW 1 MW
Research,
Development and Ground Test very large
Test (TRL 4-5) deployable structures
Complete Initial R&D for
High Efficiency High Power SEPS High-Power GEO 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP
Dual-Purpose Arrays for S/C For Science Probes CommSats
Applications R&D
(TRL 4-6) Lunar Power, Large SEPS MSC 3
Large structures for large
apertures & solar sails 10 MW-Class Flight
MSC 1 Demo (TRL 7)
50 M Class flight expt. 100 kW Class SSP
(incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control) flight demo
Technology Demos
(TRL 6-7) MSC 4+
Component-Level MSC 2 1 MW Class SSP advanced (2020+)
Flight Experiments 10-100 kW SSP technology subsystem flight
planetary surface demo’s (SPG/SEPS/WPT)
demo
LEGEND R&D Major R&D Pgm Strategic R&T Road SSP Model System
Decision Point Milestone Map Objective Concept(s)

50. JAXA: Space Solar Power Strategy

51. ¿Qué es el futuro?
• ¡El futuro ya no es
lo que era antes!
• Lo que hoy se vive no es el
acabose, sino apenas el
continuose de lo que
empezose ya mucho ha.
Mafalda

52. Attitudes
towards the future
•Passive (ostrich) Suffer the future
•Reactive (fire fighter) Respond
•Preactive (insurer) Prepare
•Proactive (builder) Create

54. Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro

55. The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke
• First Law: When a distinguished but
elderly scientist states that something is
possible, he is almost certainly right.
When he states that something is
impossible, he is very probably wrong.
• Second Law: The only way of discovering
the limits of the possible is to venture a
little way past them into the impossible.
• Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced
technology is indistinguishable from
magic.

56. Technologies of the “past”
• 30 years ago
Personal computers
• 20 years ago
Cell phones
• 10 years ago
Google
• What will happen in 10 years? In 20
years? In 30 years?
Immortal (ageless) cells!

57. Physical Immortality: Death of Death
1. Reproductive cells (good)
2. Cancer cells (bad)
www.Mprize.org

58. NBIC (Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno)
National Science Foundation
Department of Commerce

59. Technological Convergence NBIC
Atoms Cells
Nano Bio
NBIC
Cogno Info
Neurons Bits

60. Technological convergence is
accelerating…
… and everything is information

61. Ray Kurzweil (MIT):
The Singularity is Near
• www.singularity.com
• Bill Gates
• Ley de Moore

62. www.top500.org

63. Moore’s Wall? ICn No!
Log Scale IC5
1. 3D ICs
IC4
IC3 2. Quantum
IC2
computing
IC1 3. Subatomic
Transistor particles
Thermionic
Tube
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

64. 1. Nano (NBIC)

65. Nanotechnology: www.nano.gov

67. 2. Bio (NBIC)

68. The glo-fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)

70. Dolly: the clone

71. Singapore: Biopolis 2012

72. Russia: ???

73. Korea: Hwang Woo-suk (Snuppy)

75. The attack of
the clones?

76. Synthetic biology is born
• Variola virus (smallpox)
Genes: 197
Base pairs: 185,000
• Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria)
Genes: 485
Base pairs: 580,000
• Homo sapiens sapiens
Genes: ~25,000
Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000

77. 3. Info (NBIC)

78. MIT Media Lab: $100 laptop

83. The 3 Laws of “Knowledge”
• Law of Nodes
(N units)
• Law of Metcalfe
(N x N conexions)
• Law of Reed
(exp.N Knowledge)

84. Global brain?

86. IBM´s Watson won in Jeopardy!
February 14-16, 2011

89. 4. Cogno (NBIC)

90. The triune brain:
Paul MacLean, 1973
• Reptilian (primitive):
instincts
• Limbic (paleomammalian):
emotions
• Neocortex
(neomammalian):
intelligence

91. Riken Brain Institute
www.brain.riken.go.jp

92. Riken Brain Institute
www.brain.riken.go.jp

93. Paul Allen: www.BrainAtlas.org

94. What is a brain?
• 1 brain
• 1011 neurones
• 1014 synapsis
• 1017 computations
(per second)
• And the mind?
• And the spirit?
• And the soul?

95. Internal brain implants: Cyberkinetics Inc.

96. External brain implants

97. Robots in Japan and Korea

98. Asimo (Honda) evolution

107. Robots are good in Japan

109. Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborg
www.KevinWarwick.org

110. Humans and machines!
Humans or machines?

111. Marvin Minsky (MIT):
Will robots inherit the earth?
Yes, but they will be us!

112. Bart Kosko, USC: Biology is not destiny.
It was never more than tendency.
Biology was just nature's first quick and
dirty way to compute with meat.
Chips are destiny!

113. Transhumanism is S&T for humans:
transcending human limitations
www.TransHumanismo.org
Are humans trans-monkeys?

115. Transhumanism, yes...
but carefully
Homo sapiens sapiens

116. Superman?
Christopher
Reeve
(paraplegic)

117. Stephen Hawking

118. Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future

119. Ronald Reagan:
Alzheimer’s

120. Space:
the final frontier?

121. SpaceShipOne: Virgin Galactic 2012

122. The brain:
the final frontier!

123. Yin-yang 阴阳 (and more yin-yang)

124. Light up the world

126. The world is one

127. Guru Cordeiro meditating in India
(Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)

132. ¡Muchas gracias!
www.Cordeiro.org