A salesperson is looking at a linear trend and a naive method to forecast shoe sales. The linear trend equation is Y = 124 + 2t, and it was developed using data from period 1 to 10. Based on data for period 11 to 20 as shown below, which of these methods has the greater accuracy if MAD and MSE are used? Show your work. t Sold Shoes 11 147 12 148 13 151 14 145 15 155 16 152 17 155 18 157 19 160 20 165 t Sold Shoes 11 147 12 148 13 151 14 145 15 155 16 152 17 155 18 157 19 160 20 165 Solution MAD is the average difference between the actual and forecast numbers and it will give the best accuracy than MSE.

1. A salesperson is looking at a linear trend and a naive method to forecast shoe sales. The linear
trend equation is Y = 124 + 2t, and it was developed using data from period 1 to 10. Based on
data for period 11 to 20 as shown below, which of these methods has the greater accuracy if
MAD and MSE are used? Show your work.
t
Sold Shoes
11
147
12
148
13
151
14
145
15
155
16
152
17
155
18
157
19
160
20
165
t
Sold Shoes
11
147
12
148
13
151
14

2. 145
15
155
16
152
17
155
18
157
19
160
20
165
Solution
MAD is the average difference between the actual and forecast numbers and it will give the best
accuracy than MSE