Are we working towards the world we want agroforestry - ravi prabhu - icraf

57th Board of Trustees Meeting
April 29-May 3 2013
Are we working towards the
world we want?
Overview statement on IDOs, SDs
and CRPs

April 29-May 3 2013
Overview: unfinished business!
We have fairly clear guidance from CO & ISPC
on the framework
The system level IDOs are still a work in
progress (especially recent ISPC paper)
The CRP IDOs are also a work in progress
CRP 6 forest/tree transition curve is not a
theory of change – we need more thought
ICRAF is heading in the right direction to
respond, but we aren’t there yet
Skip the middle 

April 29-May 3 2013

April 29-May 3 2013
Rijsberman 2012, modified

April 29-May 3 2013
Aren’t we missing something?

April 29-May 3 2013
Obersteiner, CSA Conference Davis

April 29-May 3 2013
Production driven
perspectives
Rijsberman 2012, modified

April 29-May 3 2013
??
High input agriculture 
High outputs.
What costs?
Achim
Dobermann, modified

April 29-May 3 2013
A simple input-output lens
Input Low High
Output Low Extractive Degrading?
High Utopic? Industrial

April 29-May 3 2013
HIGH-LEVEL CONSULTATION ON HUNGER, FOOD SECURITY AND
NUTRITION IN THE POST- 2015 DEVELOPMENT AGENDA
“…reducing global waste by
half would mean radical
progress on hunger and
malnutrition in the most
vulnerable populations.”
“…support the use of a
wider variety of crops to
help feed the world,
… of the thousands of
cultivatable crops that
exist, only seven provide
90% of the world’s food
production.”

April 29-May 3 2013
Finding the diversity dividend
Jackson et al. 2013

April 29-May 3 2013
Cheap and
abundant energy
presently drives
everything, when
that goes we will
face a decline
Energy

April 29-May 3 2013
Expanding our input-output lens
Input Soil Land Energy Water Ecosystem Species
Processing / Knowledge, attitude, skills, behaviour, organizations, governance
Conversion Efficiency, trade-offs, resilience, markets, value chains, etc.
Output Food & Nutrition Wealth, equity O.Ecosystem Services Waste
Hypothesis: without a systems frame, even a simple one like the
one here, it is not possible to orient our research towards the
world we want.
The SLIDOs, CRP IDOs, Research Outcomes and Centre
Strategies must embrace this
Climate, Population

April 29-May 3 2013
Good governance
Carlos Manuel Rodríguez Nagoya COP 10
REDD+ Hour

April 29-May 3 2013
Perceptions matter
In California’s Central Valley:
“…mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant
concerns and beliefs about climate change, while
adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns
for local impacts.
This match between attitudes and behaviors according to
the psychological distance at which they are cognitively
construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may
benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals
concordantly;
either in a global context for mitigation or a local context
for adaptation.”
Haden et al

April 29-May 3 2013
… and so does Power

April 29-May 3 2013
Big Six
58% of proprietary seed market
$50 billion sales annually, $4.7b R&D
Shand 2012

April 29-May 3 2013
Top Ten
28% of global food market
Mulle & Rupanne 2010

April 29-May 3 2013
Discourses, partnerships
??

April 29-May 3 2013
Simplicity and complexity
Human progress has been predicated on
reductionism – making things as simple as
possible and then improving them. Agriculture
exemplifies this
Complexity, especially dynamic adaptive
complexity must be harnessed if we are to
deal with wicked problems

April 29-May 3 2013
What research investments will
have most development impact?
• Which interventions will reduce
risk, increase security, and improve lives
the most?
• How to measure and monitor
development outcomes?
• What are the trade-offs between
agricultural productivity and the
environment?
• What are the risks of intervention failure?
• What is high value information? for
improving intervention decisions?
Keith Shepherd – value of information

April 29-May 3 2013
ICRAF’s Science Domains
Input Soil Land Energy Water Ecosystem Species
Processing / Knowledge, attitude, skills, behaviour, organizations, governance
Conversion Efficiency, trade-offs, resilience, markets, value chains, etc.
Output Food & Nutrition Wealth, equity O.Ecosystem Services Waste
“Waste” incl. externalities
with regard to natural capital

Forests, Trees & Agroforestry IDOs
Resilience to environmental and economic variability, shocks and longer term changes of rural
communities enhancedthrough greater adaptive capacity to manage forests, trees and agroforestry
Income from products and environmental services derived forests, trees and agroforestry
systems enhanced
Local institutions strengthened and collective action enhanced for improved agricultural
and natural resources management
Productivity, production and availability of foods and fuel from forests and agroforestry
systems increased for poor rural people
Policies supporting sustainable and equitable management of forests and trees developed
and adopted by conservation and development organizations, national governments and
international bodies.
Forests, land and water resources and biodiversity protected and improved and net carbon
sequestration increased in key target countries
C sequestration increased and greenhouse gas reduced through improved agriculture and
natural resources management
Greater gender equity in decision making and control over forest and tree use,
management and benefits are improved through women’s empowerment
i
o
o
o
i
i
o i
o
I don’t
I don’t

April 29-May 3 2013
Logic models
Consist of a listing of
Outputs: the product from activity delivered, e.g. how
many people received training
Outcomes: the change that occurs as a result of the
activity within the lifetime of the programme, until
recently also called variously objective or purpose, e.g.
farmers are able to use new technology to grow crops
Impacts: what will the end result be in the wider
context, e.g. farmers use new technology to increasing
productivity in crop growing, also called goal
In its classic form the logical model does not provide insight into causality, that
is, why a given output would lead to a given outcome and, in turn, a given impact
ISPC ToC paper

April 29-May 3 2013
CRP6 IDO’s
.
1. Reducing
rural poverty
2. Improving
food security
3. Improving
nutrition & health
4. Sustainably managing
natural resources
System-level development outcomes .
Decrease in and
recovery from
resource
degradation
Co-investments in
maintaining/enhancing ES
Increased efficiency in the use &
conservationof natural resources
System level impact targets (“SLO’s”)
Functional tradeoff
management and
governance systems
Resilient and adaptive
rural – urban livelihood
systems
Human
well-
being
linked to
T forests,
trees &
agroforestry
.
Functional
tree co-
ver tran-
sitions
.
Tradeoff
management
capacity
.
Increased
socio-
economic
benefits
Reduced
livelihood
vulnerability
& risk
Enhanced
benefits for
women ++*
Reduced
deforestation
& ES degra-
dation
Increased net
carbon
storage
Increased
sustainable
use & con-
servation
Text to be updated…
1. Enhance contribution of forests, trees and agroforestry to income, food security and nutrition
2. Forest and tree resources are conserved and used more sustainably, to enhance current and future options
3. Maintain or enhance ecosystem services from landscapes with forests, trees and agroforestry
4. Increase socio-ecological resilience and adaptive capacity of local livelihoods
5. Reduce emissions of GHG and increase C stocks
6. Policies and markets favor investments that support sustainable natural resource management
7. Women are better empowered and gender equality in decision making and control over resource use, management and benefits is improved
1 2
34 5
6
7
CRP6 metrics CRP6 metrics
Meine vN 2012

Beyond the tree transition curve
Urbantrough
Embrace complexity through a systems perspective
Take multiple scales, diversity and fine scale variation into account
Research outcomes: Knowledge, understanding, evidence, skills and capabilities
about how to manipulate the nature of tree cover, species and products for multiple
benefits in agricultural landscapes
IDOs: Attitudinal, behaviour, efficiency change among key partners & stakeholders
GDP

April 29-May 3 2013
Step
2+3
Step 1
Yield
Gap
After Roger Leakey’s work
Diversity
dividend can
be achieved
through
addition of
structure, life
form, spp.
Concept of sustainable
intensification must include all
dimensions of diversity and
respond to fine scale variation at
nested scales

April 29-May 3 2013
ICRAF’s Science Domains
Coherent, impact-oriented research agenda to
champion the role of trees in transforming lives
and landscapes
Provide gender and socially differentiated
answers to complex problems across different
agro-ecologies, sectors and political spheres
• Systems approach
• Nested spatial and temporal scales
• Roles and operational goals clearly defined
• Will map to IDOs … once we know which ones

April 29-May 3 2013
Roles: information, evidence, practice
ICRAF’s six roles help deliver:
Synoptic information
• Complex systems require an integration of information
• Seeing is believing!
Hard evidence
• Rigorous, science to reduce ambiguity and controversy
• Timely evidence to guide decision making
Good practice
• Emergent interactions of good practices at nested scales
is what we are seeking

April 29-May 3 2013
Conclusions
Many of the elements needed are in place
Our strategy is positioning us to respond well,
(implicitly) embodies theory of change
• Need more attention to water, economic and social
dimensions
• Need more inter-connection among our research
outcomes
• Need to stipulate better their conditions for success
at investment scales
Need better (definitional) clarity from ISPC and
CO

April 29-May 3 2013
Thank you!
MvN 2013

April 29-May 3 2013
Bonus slides

April 29-May 3 2013
Research Outputs to Global Development Goals
MDGs - SDGs
12-18 years CGIAR SLOs CRP goals
Common IDOs
+ Target statements
+ Theory of Change
CRP-specific IDOs
+ Target statements
+ Theory of Change
9-12 years
CRP Impact
Pathway #1
ToC1; Δ behaviour
 direct benefit
3-yr milestones
0-12 years
CRP Activities + Outputs
(research, capacity building, engagement)
0-12 years
CRP Impact
Pathway #2
ToC2; Δ behaviour
 direct benefit
3-yr milestones
CRP Impact
Pathway
ToC; Enabling
Environment
3-yr milestones
Tom Randolph
25/4/2013

April 29-May 3 2013
ISPC on Theories of Change
Incorporating non-linearity to research planning
Embedding learning mechanisms about research
uptake and impact into the research process
Regular review and updating of the TOCs
Assessing counterfactuals on the impact stream
by monitoring
Developing a communication strategy for
discourse and engagement with stakeholders
Directing the research benefits to those
intended, including women.

April 29-May 3 2013
Where are we with CRPs?
Currently represent to a considerable
extent, on-going research bound by
contractual agreements brought together
under common umbrella
They need to transition towards a more
coherent and focused program building
around the components that most clearly
targeted the System Level Outcomes

April 29-May 3 2013
ISPC guidance on IDOs

April 29-May 3 2013
Tenure effects can over ride other drivers …..
Impact Unadj Freehold
Tenure
Effect
Net Returns to Land ($ ha-1 y-1) $198 $397 2.0
Tree Crops (ha km2) 2.3 12.9 5.6
Plantations and Woodlots
(ha km2)
3.1 12.7 4.1
Hedgerows (km km-2) 5.2 23.6 4.5
Norton-Griffith, in preparation

April 29-May 3 2013
Science Domains in Research Division
with CRP 6 (showing 6.1&6.3 especially)

Forests, Trees & Agroforestry themes
Smallholder
production
systems and
markets
Management
and
conservation
of forests and
trees
Landscape
management
Climate
change
adaptation
and
mitigation
Impacts of
trade and
investment
Intermediate Development Outcomes (IDOs)
System Level Outcomes (SLOs)
Theme 1 Theme 2 Theme 3 Theme 4 Theme 5
Cross-cutting themes:
Gender
Communications
Sentinel Landscapes
Monitoring, Evaluation and Impact Assessment

April 29-May 3 2013
Why do we have (SL)IDOs?
To connect between the CGIAR Research
Programs (CRPs) and the high level SLO objectives
• At the System-level there should be agreement on a
prioritized set of IDOs that are logically linked to the
SLOs
• CRP-level IDOs are expected to correspond with the
System-level IDOs and to be supported by carefully
constructed impact pathways
• theory or theories of change describe the
assumptions underlying the impact pathways

April 29-May 3 2013
To meet the biofuel demand in 2050, land used for
biofuel production would increase from 30 to around
100 Mha in 2050 (IEA, 2011)
•Global land potentially available for bioenergy crop
production in 2050 is 440 Mha (Doornbosch and
Steenblik, 2007)
•Not included in these figures are 4,200 Mha of saline
areas and other land unsuitable for rainfed cultivation.
•Major potential for expansion: Africa and Latin
America

April 29-May 3 2013
Getting the hierarchy right
Global goals: SDGs, UNFCCC, CBD (Aichi
Targets), UNCCD, Global Compact
CGIAR SLIDOs = CRP IDOs – common sets?
CRP IDOs
CRP & ICRAF Research Outcomes

April 29-May 3 2013
“…building blocks for change are cross-
sectoral, complementary and
synergistic, and that no one-size-fits all
solution exists.”
sustainable and resilient food production
and consumption requiring improved access
to more nutritious diets,
Improved local food availability, efficient
food distribution systems, and reduced
waste and loss;
overcoming challenges of over- and under-
nutrition to provide “good” nutrition for all,
access to safe drinking water, hygiene and
sanitation, and education;
agents for transformation, including small
producers, family farmers, indigenous
peoples and consumers at all levels; and
developing catalytic steps, including gender-
equal investments,
and guarantees for small farmer investment
opportunities and market access.

April 29-May 3 2013
Agricultural land use: food/non-food
Foley et al.

April 29-May 3 2013
Enhancing the management and use of forests, agroforestry
and tree genetic resources across the landscape from
forests to farms
CRP 6 FTA
of Global Forest Cover46%
1.3 Billion ha of closed forests
500 Million ha of open and fragmented forests
500 millionpeople living in or close to forests

April 29-May 3 2013
The apparent challenge
SD >>

April 29-May 3 2013
SD >> e<<d
The real challenge?

April 29-May 3 2013
What other guidance are we getting?
UNDG initiated 11 multi-stakeholder thematic consultations on:
hunger, nutrition and food security;
energy;
addressing inequalities;
governance;
health;
population dynamics;
conflict, violence and disasters;
education;
environmental sustainability; and
water, including on water resources management, wastewater
management, and water quality

April 29-May 3 2013
Framework to guide actions on FS & N
increasing agricultural resilience to climate
change and economic shocks;
promoting good governance, reducing inequality
and emphasizing rights-based approaches;
accelerating progress in eradicating hunger and
malnutrition,
with an explicit emphasis on gender equality;
and
Integrating food-based responses with public
health interventions at all levels

April 29-May 3 2013
“… any goal should deal
with food security and
nutrition not separately
but together, as the
former is about
quantity and the latter
about quality.”

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