6. Today’s CO2 Concentration After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns 600 500 400 300 280 260 240 CO2 Concentration CO2 [ppmv] 220 200 180 0 °C Temp. in F° Temp. in °C -8 °C Dan Miller – Climateplace.org 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Age (yr BP)
7. Today’s CO2 Concentration After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns 600 500 400 300 280 260 240 CO2 Concentration CO2 [ppmv] 220 200 180 0 °C Temp. in F° Temp. in °C -8 °C Dan Miller – Climateplace.org 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Age (yr BP)
9. Feedback Loops – Tipping Points At greater than 2°C average temperature increase, we risk unstoppable, runaway temperature increases: Polar Ice Caps Melting- reduced reflection Drought, insect infestations and fires killing/burning biomass Permafrost methane thawing – Contains as much GHG as currently in atmosphere Ocean methane thawing – Teratonnes of methane released
11. The “Poor” are Getting Richer 300m Indian middle class becoming used to Western culture and consumption China car sales surpassed the US in December, 2008 – 872,900 vehicles sold/month 52% of Brazil (100m+ citizens) now has a car, access to credit, and holds a middle class job
18. Resulting Trends Higher Energy Prices and Volatility Price on Carbon Changing Consumer Preference Increased Energy Efficiency Increased Use of Renewable Energy
23. World Oil Production P2 P P Before Peak Oil After Peak Oil Supply Increases Supply Decreases Q Q P1 P1 Demand Increases Demand Increases Q1 Q2 Q2 Q1
24. Peak Oil - Actuals Ex-OPEC and USSR USA Peak – 1971 Hubbert Predicted – 1965-1970 Wikipedia
27. Price on Carbon Baseline and Credit: Kyoto – Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Allows Annex A countries to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in their own countries Sets targets for emissions reduction for each country Ratified by all Annex A nations except the US Uses principal of “additionality” Cap and Trade: Fix pollution, price floats European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Waxman-Markey (US) Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (Australia) Carbon Tax: Fix price, pollution floats
39. Smart Grid "Our expectation is that this network will be 100 or 1,000 times larger than the Internet. If you think about it, some homes have Internet access, but some don't. Everyone has electricity access--all of those homes could potentially be connected,” Marie Hattar, VP Marketing
41. Increased Use of Renewables Saul Griffith, Makani Power: Cannot be about “What is politically feasible”. Nor should it be constrained by “What is economically feasible”. If you want clean power for America (and the World), it must be about “What is Technically Necessary”
