Presentation by Robert Richardson in Lusaka, Zambia on 15 June, 2015 at the Improving Integration among Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Tenure Meeting

1. Impact of Sustainable Intensi2ication on
Landscapes and Livelihoods (SILL)
Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Naomi Sakana, and Kurt Waldman
Improving Integration among Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Tenure
15 June 2015
Lusaka

2. SILL Project Team
§ Dr. Robert Richardson, MSU
§ Dr. Naomi Sakana, CIFOR
§ Dr. Laura Schmitt Olabisi, MSU
§ Dr. Kurt Waldman, MSU

3. Project Objectives
1. Provide an evidence base for linkages between 2ield
and farm-scale sustainable intensi2ication (SI)
interventions and (i) forest conservation and (ii)
biodiversity conservation in Zambia
2. Provide recommendations to inform the design of an
integrated framework for programming in Zambia
§ Pilot sites: Eastern and Lusaka Provinces, Zambia

4. Sustainable
Intensifica/on
Interven/ons
Agroforestry
Conserva/on
Agriculture
Forest
Conserva/on
Biodiversity /
Wildlife
Conserva/on
Agricultural-Environmental Linkages

5. Participatory System Dynamics Modeling
§ May 2014: Workshops in Mfuwe and Lusaka
§ Activities designed to identify causal relationships related
to agriculture & environment in Zambia
§ Causal loop diagramming activities
§ August 2014: Participatory modeling workshop in
Chisamba

6. Major Trends in Zambia
§ Relatively low population density
§ Population growth
§ Projected to increase 10x by 2100
§ High rates of urbanization

7. Implications
§ Food security– demand for food
§ Demand for cropland (migration to land abundant
areas)
§ Degraded soils
§ Low non-farm rural employment

8. Forest Data Gaps
§ Forest cover (estimates vary from 30 million Ha
to 60 million Ha of forest)
§ Deforestation rates (150,000—300,000/yr)
§ Deforestation versus degradation

9. Wildlife Data Gaps
§ Wildlife population data
§ Poaching rates
§ Response to habitat loss

10. Agricultural Income
§ Do SI activities increase yields?
§ Can we attribute increased income solely to SI
practices?
§ What do people do with increased agricultural
income?

11. Popula/on
Fuel
Food
Grassland
Forest
Agricultural
Decision-
making
Wildlife
popula/ons
Model Structure

12. Sources of Deforesta/on
Represented in Model
§ Agriculture
§ Charcoal produc/on
§ Fuelwood collec/on
§ Home construc/on
§ Commercial /mber *

13. Na/onal Level Deforesta/on over
/me, baseline
14% loss18% loss
Deciduous and evergreen forest
20 M
17.5 M
15 M
12.5 M
10 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : landscape_v5_baseline
Miombo woodland
40 M
37.5 M
35 M
32.5 M
30 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Miombo woodland : landscape_v5_baseline

14. Na/onal Model
Deforestation by Driver
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline
forest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline

15. Na/onal Model
Miombo Clearing by Driver
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline
miombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline

16. Model Valida/on
§ Model reports 156,364 ha. loss of all forest types in 2010
§ 167,000: FAO (2010)
§ 298,000: UN-REDD (2010)
§ World Bank: 0.33% annually (our model: 0.33% in 2010).
§ However, we do not include deforesta/on from mining

17. Lusaka Baseline
1.23% loss rate
in 2010
0.93% loss rate
in 2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
225,000
150,000
75,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland
600,000
450,000
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline

18. Lusaka Province
Deforestation by Driver
30,000
22,500
15,000
7500
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline

19. Lusaka Province
Miombo Clearing by Driver
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline

20. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of
agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in
years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_drought

21. Effect of Full Electrifica/on on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_electrification
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_electrification

22. Effects of Maize Yield increase
on Forest Cover
Maize yields increase at 3x their
current rate.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_yield
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_yield

23. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_efficient_stoves

24. Eastern Baseline
0.74% loss rate
in 2010
0.54% loss rate
in 2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.75 M
1.5 M
1.25 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.75 M
2.5 M
2.25 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline

25. Eastern Province
Deforestation by Driver
20,000
15,000
10,000
5000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline

26. Eastern Province
Miombo Clearing by Driver
30,000
22,450
14,900
7350
-200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline

27. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of
agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in
years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_drought

28. Effect of Full Electrifica/on on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_electrification
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_electrification

29. Effects of Maize Yield increase
on Forest Cover
Maize yields increase at 3x their
current rate.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_yield
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_yield

30. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_efficient_stoves

31. Conclusions
§ Charcoal and clearing for agriculture are both important
stories
§ Charcoal dominates in Lusaka; agriculture dominates
currently in EP
§ Charcoal dominates both in the future
§ Agricultural land clearing is driven by rural popula/on growth,
not low yields/land abandonment
§ Charcoal produc/on is driven by urban popula/on growth and
energy demand