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KNOW WHAT YOU MEASURE.
AND WHY.
KIRIL TSEMEKHMAN
CHIEF DATA SCIENTIST,
INTEGRAL AD SCIENCE
1
WHAT MATTERS TO YOU?
• Measuring performance:
incrementality
• Attribution: rewarding rightly
• Driving performance: the importance
of environment
• Taking it in: influencing the user
• Revealing what matters
2
ATTRIBUTION: REWARDING RIGHTLY
• Establishing the baseline
• Measuring and attributing only incremental actions
• Giving credit where credit is really due
3
4
5
6
LESSONS LEARNED
• The treasure chest had “baseline coins”
• Pirates had to find a way to separate baseline coins from their
“incremental loot”
• Knowing each pirate’s effort leads to rewarding rightly
7
DRIVING PERFORMANCE:
THE IMPORTANCE OF ENVIRONMENT
• Is viewability all that matters?
• Other dimensions that make a difference
– How many times driver sees the billboard?
– How often?
– Is there enough time to read it?
8
9
10
LESSONS LEARNED
• Picking the right place is not that simple
• Consider what’s happening at any given moment
• How big is the opportunity to be noticed and remembered?
11
TAKING IT IN: INFLUENCING THE USER
• Opportunity does not equal viewability
• Viewability does not equal engagement
• Engagement does not equal action…yet
12
13
14
15
LESSONS LEARNED
• You are not cured by getting a prescription
• You are also not cured by filling a prescription
• You have a better chance to be cured by taking the
medication as directed
– but then again, different dosages may yield better results
16
CAUSAL IMPACT OF USER ENGAGEMENT
WITH DIGITAL ADS
• “Natural” A/B test
• Unviewable ads instead of PSAs
• Causal impact of different treatment levels
– Number of ads shown to user
– Total exposure time
17
AND NOW…REVEALING WHAT MATTERS
Measuring incremental (causal) actions:
• Does the number of exposures matter?
• Does the frequency of exposures matter?
• Does the total exposure duration matter?
• Are two long ads better than ten short ads?
18
600K
200K
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Impressions per User
NumberofUsersOverOneWeek
7% of users were served over 5 impressions
2.5% of users were served over 10 impressions
AD FREQUENCY: MOST USERS SAW 1-2 ADS
19
700K
120K
1-5 5-15 15-30 30-45 45-60 60-75 75-90 90-120 120-150 >150
Total User Exposure Time (seconds)
NumberofUsersOverOneWeek 57% of users have no viewable impressions
USER EXPOSURE TIME: MOST EXPOSED <5 SEC
20
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0 50 100 150
Gaming Telcom
Exposure to Advertising (seconds)
AdditiveLiftinConversions
EFFECT OF TOTAL EXPOSURE TIME ON
INCREMENTAL CONVERSIONS
21
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0 2 4 6 8 10
Gaming Telecom
Number of Impressions
AdditiveLiftinConversions
EFFECT OF REPEATED EXPOSURES ON
INCREMENTAL CONVERSIONS
22
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Impressions
AdditiveLiftinConversionsCOMBINED EFFECT OF EXPOSURE
FREQUENCY & DURATION
23
LESSONS LEARNED
• Number and frequency of exposures matter
• Total exposure duration matters
• One long exposure does not quite reach the goal
24
ULTIMATE LESSONS LEARNED
• Remember what matters and ask the
right questions. Then…
• Measure the right things and measure
them right.
25
THANK YOU
KIRIL TSEMEKHMAN
kiril@integralads.com

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Omni.Digital 2015 - "Know What You Measure. And Why."

  • 1. KNOW WHAT YOU MEASURE. AND WHY. KIRIL TSEMEKHMAN CHIEF DATA SCIENTIST, INTEGRAL AD SCIENCE
  • 2. 1
  • 3. WHAT MATTERS TO YOU? • Measuring performance: incrementality • Attribution: rewarding rightly • Driving performance: the importance of environment • Taking it in: influencing the user • Revealing what matters 2
  • 4. ATTRIBUTION: REWARDING RIGHTLY • Establishing the baseline • Measuring and attributing only incremental actions • Giving credit where credit is really due 3
  • 5. 4
  • 6. 5
  • 7. 6
  • 8. LESSONS LEARNED • The treasure chest had “baseline coins” • Pirates had to find a way to separate baseline coins from their “incremental loot” • Knowing each pirate’s effort leads to rewarding rightly 7
  • 9. DRIVING PERFORMANCE: THE IMPORTANCE OF ENVIRONMENT • Is viewability all that matters? • Other dimensions that make a difference – How many times driver sees the billboard? – How often? – Is there enough time to read it? 8
  • 10. 9
  • 11. 10
  • 12. LESSONS LEARNED • Picking the right place is not that simple • Consider what’s happening at any given moment • How big is the opportunity to be noticed and remembered? 11
  • 13. TAKING IT IN: INFLUENCING THE USER • Opportunity does not equal viewability • Viewability does not equal engagement • Engagement does not equal action…yet 12
  • 14. 13
  • 15. 14
  • 16. 15
  • 17. LESSONS LEARNED • You are not cured by getting a prescription • You are also not cured by filling a prescription • You have a better chance to be cured by taking the medication as directed – but then again, different dosages may yield better results 16
  • 18. CAUSAL IMPACT OF USER ENGAGEMENT WITH DIGITAL ADS • “Natural” A/B test • Unviewable ads instead of PSAs • Causal impact of different treatment levels – Number of ads shown to user – Total exposure time 17
  • 19. AND NOW…REVEALING WHAT MATTERS Measuring incremental (causal) actions: • Does the number of exposures matter? • Does the frequency of exposures matter? • Does the total exposure duration matter? • Are two long ads better than ten short ads? 18
  • 20. 600K 200K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Impressions per User NumberofUsersOverOneWeek 7% of users were served over 5 impressions 2.5% of users were served over 10 impressions AD FREQUENCY: MOST USERS SAW 1-2 ADS 19
  • 21. 700K 120K 1-5 5-15 15-30 30-45 45-60 60-75 75-90 90-120 120-150 >150 Total User Exposure Time (seconds) NumberofUsersOverOneWeek 57% of users have no viewable impressions USER EXPOSURE TIME: MOST EXPOSED <5 SEC 20
  • 22. 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0 50 100 150 Gaming Telcom Exposure to Advertising (seconds) AdditiveLiftinConversions EFFECT OF TOTAL EXPOSURE TIME ON INCREMENTAL CONVERSIONS 21
  • 23. 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0 2 4 6 8 10 Gaming Telecom Number of Impressions AdditiveLiftinConversions EFFECT OF REPEATED EXPOSURES ON INCREMENTAL CONVERSIONS 22
  • 24. 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of Impressions AdditiveLiftinConversionsCOMBINED EFFECT OF EXPOSURE FREQUENCY & DURATION 23
  • 25. LESSONS LEARNED • Number and frequency of exposures matter • Total exposure duration matters • One long exposure does not quite reach the goal 24
  • 26. ULTIMATE LESSONS LEARNED • Remember what matters and ask the right questions. Then… • Measure the right things and measure them right. 25