1. What does the electricity market need from AD?
Chris Goodall
www.carboncommentary.com
2. • Solar PV (and wind) are beginning to have major effects on electricity
market
• AD will suffer unless it can find ways of complementing other
renewables, not competing with them
• Two possible routes forward
• Batteries
• Power to gas
4. 2015 output about
3,000 MW lower in
nightime hours
2015 output almost
8,000 MW lower in
peak sun
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Decline in demand between 2010 and 2015, Megawatts
5. -3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Daytime reduction in demand compared to expected solar
output for April 14th 2015
Normalised change in demand Projected solar output
Notes: ‘Normalised’ means reducing all 2015 figures by 3,000 MW to reflect falling aggregate demand across the day,
Projected solar output comes from my UK solar PV output model for 14th April 2015, also a day of forecast high irradiance.
Figures adjusted for GMT/BST difference
6. National Grid paying users
up to £34 a MWh to take
electricity during afternoon
of Saturday 11th April
Zero electricity
price
7. PV economics
• PV 5 years ago ‘too expensive ever to be a significant source of electricity’ in higher latitudes
• Now, assumed to reach grid parity almost everywhere by 2020
• Even if technology stops evolving (which it won’t), the decline in PV’s cost of capital will ALONE
make it cost-competitive in the UK on current trends
• And, broadly speaking, it is unstoppable. Growth in domestic roof PV will continue the erosion of
midday demand seen in previous charts
8. Batteries
• Going through same cost reduction cycle as PV, largely as the result of Tesla/Panasonic
• 80% cost reduction likely 2010 to 2020. Perhaps more.
• Analysts now talking of $200 a kWh for standard lithium ion battery. Lower for some other
battery chemistries.
9. D6el ij
• Protects against low prices paid for daytime power
• Enables owner to participate in profitable National Grid stabilisation markets
Energy storage in a standard container
11. Electrolyser – output H2Surplus power
AD plant Biogas
Biogas + H2
makes 100%
CH4*
Natural gas grid
* Through biological methanation eg
Electrochaea process
12. • AD’s key strength – its ability to reliably generate 24 hours a
day – may become a major weakness
• This means AD operators will soon find it advantageous to
consider storage – probably of electricity – and/or using
periods of surplus power to turn CO2 into CH4
