Niel Bowerman - Why & How We Should Prioritise - EA Global Melbourne 2015

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Niel talks about why we should prioritise and how we should do it. Dr. Niel Bowerman is Director of Operations at the Future of Humanity Institute. Niel co-founded the Centre for Effective Altruism, the Global Priorities Project, climate policy think tank Climatio, and was part of the 80,000 Hours founding team. Niel has a PhD in physics from Oxford University, he was a member of President Obama’s Energy and Environment Policy Team, and was Climate Science Advisor to the President of the Maldives. Niel has delivered speeches at G8 Summits, the European Parliament, World Bank, UK Treasury and at the World Economic Forum. Video of talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXhMuO6e6qE&list=PL-7qI6NZpO3vIfu0uHiK8SjCPm2bz4maW&index=11 Many thanks for watching! - Support me via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/scifuture - Please Subscribe to this Channel: http://youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=TheRationalFuture - Science, Technology & the Future website: http://scifuture.org

Regierungs- und gemeinnützige Organisationen

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Why and how to
prioritise
Niel Bowerman
Future of Humanity Institute
Co-founder, Centre for Effective Altruism
2 October, 2015

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
What is effective altruism?
1. Figure out how to do the most good
2. Do it!

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Why should we prioritise?

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Antiretroviral therapy
Treatment of Kaposi’s
Sarcoma

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Antiretroviral therapy
Treatment of Kaposi’s
Sarcoma

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Cost-effectiveness (QALYs/£1,000)
Treatment of HIV/AIDS
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)
Treatment of Kaposi’s
Sarcoma
Antiretroviral therapy
Prevention of transmission
during pregnancy

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)
Global health interventions
Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/$1,000)

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Boosting school attendance

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
0
0
0.17
0.18
0.44
0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Menstrual cups for teengage girls
(Nepal)
Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)
Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)
Sponsoring a child (Kenya)
Free school uniforms (Kenya)
Additional years in school per £100

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
0
0
0.17
0.18
0.44
8.7
13
0 5 10 15
Menstrual cups for teengage girls
(Nepal)
Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)
Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)
Sponsoring a child (Kenya)
Free school uniforms (Kenya)
Deworming in primary schools (Kenya)
Information on returns to education for
parents (Madagascar)
Additional years in school per £100

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Climate change

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Tonnes of CO2eq/£100
Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism
20
16
7
5
1
0.6
0 5 10 15 20 25
10:10 Campaign
Encourage vegetarianism
Buy permits on the carbon market
Carbon offsetting
Heat exchangers in dialysis
machines
Train not plane to Naples

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
20
16
7
5
1
0.6
0 200 400 600 800
Offset HFCs
10:10 Campaign
Encourage vegetarianism
Buy permits on the carbon market
Carbon offsetting
Heat exchangers in dialysis
machines
Train not plane to Naples
Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism
800
Tonnes of CO2eq/£100

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
How to prioritise

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Choosing an
organisation
working on a
specific
intervention
Choosing an
intervention
from within a
cause area
Choosing a
cause area

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Factoring cost-effectiveness

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Comparing effectiveness

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Choosing an
organisation
working on a
specific
intervention
• Track record
• Transparency
• Quality of team
Choosing an
intervention
from within a
cause area
• Randomised
control trials
• Cost-effectiveness
estimates
Choosing a
cause area
• Scale
• Neglectedness
• Tractability
• Crucial
considerations

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!
Take-home points
1. Some things we can work on are far more effective than
others
2. Prioritisation is challenging
• However there is a growing body of experts
working on this problem
3. Take prioritisation seriously
• Change your mind
• Change your actions

Future!
of Humanity
Institute"
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!

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1. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Why and how to prioritise Niel Bowerman Future of Humanity Institute Co-founder, Centre for Effective Altruism 2 October, 2015

2. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! What is effective altruism? 1. Figure out how to do the most good 2. Do it!

3. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Why should we prioritise?

4. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition) Treatment of HIV/AIDS Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000) Antiretroviral therapy Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma

5. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Treatment of HIV/AIDS Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000) Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition) Antiretroviral therapy Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma

6. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Treatment of HIV/AIDS Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000) Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition) Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma

7. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition) Cost-effectiveness (QALYs/£1,000) Treatment of HIV/AIDS Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000) Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Prevention of transmission during pregnancy

8. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition) Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Distribution of condoms Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Treatment of HIV/AIDS Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

9. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition) Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Distribution of condoms Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Treatment of HIV/AIDS Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

10. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition) Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma Antiretroviral therapy Distribution of condoms Prevention of transmission during pregnancy Education for high-risk groups Treatment of HIV/AIDS Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

11. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition) Global health interventions Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/$1,000)

12. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Boosting school attendance

13. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! 0 0 0.17 0.18 0.44 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Menstrual cups for teengage girls (Nepal) Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India) Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya) Sponsoring a child (Kenya) Free school uniforms (Kenya) Additional years in school per £100

14. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! 0 0 0.17 0.18 0.44 8.7 13 0 5 10 15 Menstrual cups for teengage girls (Nepal) Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India) Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya) Sponsoring a child (Kenya) Free school uniforms (Kenya) Deworming in primary schools (Kenya) Information on returns to education for parents (Madagascar) Additional years in school per £100

15. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! 0 0 0.17 0.18 0.44 8.7 13 0 5 10 15 Menstrual cups for teengage girls (Nepal) Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India) Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya) Sponsoring a child (Kenya) Free school uniforms (Kenya) Deworming in primary schools (Kenya) Information on returns to education for parents (Madagascar) Additional years in school per £100

16. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Climate change

17. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Tonnes of CO2eq/£100 Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism 20 16 7 5 1 0.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 10:10 Campaign Encourage vegetarianism Buy permits on the carbon market Carbon offsetting Heat exchangers in dialysis machines Train not plane to Naples

18. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! 20 16 7 5 1 0.6 0 200 400 600 800 Offset HFCs 10:10 Campaign Encourage vegetarianism Buy permits on the carbon market Carbon offsetting Heat exchangers in dialysis machines Train not plane to Naples Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism 800 Tonnes of CO2eq/£100

19. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! 20 16 7 5 1 0.6 0 200 400 600 800 Offset HFCs 10:10 Campaign Encourage vegetarianism Buy permits on the carbon market Carbon offsetting Heat exchangers in dialysis machines Train not plane to Naples Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism 800 Tonnes of CO2eq/£100

20. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! How to prioritise

21. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Choosing an organisation working on a specific intervention Choosing an intervention from within a cause area Choosing a cause area

22. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Factoring cost-effectiveness

23. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Comparing effectiveness

24. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Choosing an organisation working on a specific intervention • Track record • Transparency • Quality of team Choosing an intervention from within a cause area • Randomised control trials • Cost-effectiveness estimates Choosing a cause area • Scale • Neglectedness • Tractability • Crucial considerations

25. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD! Take-home points 1. Some things we can work on are far more effective than others 2. Prioritisation is challenging • However there is a growing body of experts working on this problem 3. Take prioritisation seriously • Change your mind • Change your actions

26. Future! of Humanity Institute" UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD!

Hinweis der Redaktion

Don’t just stop at the first thing you think of… Huge differences in cost-effectiveness between the best and worst things
Here’s two things. On this axis, you have years of healthy life per £1000 of resources. Here you have treating karposi’s sarcoma, which is an illness you develop if you have HIV/AIDS. It’s well worth treating, roughly on the cutoff line. But you can see ARV is a way better deal – a general rather than a specific treatment - is almost 10x better. DCP2 – 1400 page report
What else is there?
Becoming preventative is 4x better again.
What else?
Stopping people from getting HIV in the first place, over twice as good again.
Anything else?
Telling high risk groups about the risks. 45 years of healthy life per £1000, which is roughly like saving someone’s life.
Here’s a bunch of ways that have been tested. Explain axis. These ones didn’t work at all. But these ones worked pretty well. Almost six months of school for £100.
And we can do a bunch better. These two are over 10x better than these three, and really effective. By promoting them, we can do a huge amount.
And we can do a bunch better. These two are over 10x better than these three, and really effective. By promoting them, we can do a huge amount.
Maldives Climate science advisor to the President of the Maldives Train to Naples rather than flying
2:00
Note that there are no organisations working on all three areas, though we may see the Open Philanthropy Project attempt to do this in the future
Note that there are no organisations working on all three areas, though we may see the Open Philanthropy Project attempt to do this in the future

Niel Bowerman - Why & How We Should Prioritise - EA Global Melbourne 2015

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Niel Bowerman - Why & How We Should Prioritise - EA Global Melbourne 2015

Hinweis der Redaktion