Weitere ähnliche Inhalte Ähnlich wie It's learning. Just not as we know it. (20) Kürzlich hochgeladen (20) It's learning. Just not as we know it.1. How to accelerate skills acquisition
in the age of intelligent technologies
IT’S LEARNING.
JUST NOT AS
WE KNOW IT.
2. We must radically rethink the skills we need and transform
how we teach people to learn and apply them throughout
their career.
President Macri of Argentina, host of the G20 2018
THE RACE IS ON BETWEEN INTELLIGENT
TECHNOLOGIES AND EDUCATION.
Education and training are not keeping up the pace.
This puts at
risk up to
of the growth promised by intelligent
technologies in the next ten years.$11.5 trillion
The future of work will be a race between education
and technology.
“ “
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 2
3. Germany: up to
A GROWTH PREMIUM IN PERIL
The economic impact will differ depending on how labor is distributed across job roles.
China could forgo up to
Mexico and South Africa
1.7%
1.8%
points from its annual growth rate
Some have a stronger skills
base, but could still lose big.
United States: as much as
US$975 billion
US$264 billionCopyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 3
4. $113 bn $119 bn
$131 bn $152 bn $173 bn $182 bn $185 bn
$264 bn
$513 bn $544 bn
$781 bn
$975 bn
$1,970 bn
$5,447 bn
$11,553
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Australia Canada Argentina South
Africa
Italy France UK Germany Mexico Japan Brazil US India China Total
BillionUS$
(inlogscale)
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 4
If G20 countries are unable to meet skills needs, they risk forgoing up to
US$11.5 trillion in GDP growth over the next 10 years.
Note: * Scenario assumes investments in intelligent technologies per worker in each country reach current US investment levels in traditional technologies per worker. More details on calculation and further scenarios can be
found in the Technical Appendix.
0.5 %pts 0.4 %pts
1.5 %pts
1.7 %pts
0.4 %pts
2.3 %pts
1.7 %pts
1.1 %pts
1.8 %pts 0.6 %pts 0.5 %pts 0.5 %pts
0.5 %pts
1.8 %pts 0.6 %pts
A GROWTH PREMIUM IN PERIL
Figures in Black - Absolute values at risk, US$ billion
Figures in Blue - Additional average GDP growth at risk every year, % points of GDP growth at risk every year
Cumulative GDP growth at risk*, 2018-2028
US$ 11.5trn
5. Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 5
WE MUST UNDERSTAND HOW JOBS
ARE BEING RECONFIGURED
Our analysis groups occupations into 10 role clusters, each impacted by intelligent
technology in similar ways because they perform similar tasks and use similar skills.
ROLE CLUSTER TYPICAL ACTIVITIES ILLUSTRATIVE OCCUPATIONS ILLUSTRATIVE TASK EVOLUTION
MANAGEMENT &
LEADERSHIP Supervises and takes decisions
Corporate managers and education
administrators
Marketing managers handle data and take
decisions based on social media and web metrics
EMPATHY & SUPPORT Provides expert support and guidance Psychiatrists and nurses
Nurses can focus on more patient care rather than
administration and form filling
SCIENCE & ENGINEERING Conducts deep, technical analysis
Chemical engineers and computer
programmers
Researchers focus on sharing, explaining and
applying their work, rather than being trapped in
labs
PROCESS & ANALYSIS Processes and analyses information Auditors and clerks
Accountants can ensure quality control rather than
crunch data
ANALYTICAL SUBJECT-
MATTER EXPERTISE
Examines and applies experience of
complex systems
Air traffic controllers and forensic
science technicians
Information security analysts can widen and deepen
searches, supported by AI-powered simulations
RELATIONAL SUBJECT-
MATTER EXPERTISE
Applies expertise in environments that
demand human interaction
Medical team workers and
interpreters
Ambulance dispatchers can focus on accurate
assessment and support, rather than logistical
details
TECHNICAL EQUIPMENT
MAINTENANCE
Installs and maintains equipment and
machinery
Mechanics and maintenance workers
Machinery mechanics work with data to predict
failure and perform preventative repairs
MACHINE OPERATION &
MANOEUVRING Operates machinery and drives vehicles Truck drivers and crane operators
Tractor operators can ensure data-guided, accurate
and tailored treatment of crops, whilst “driving”
PHYSICAL MANUAL LABOR
Performs strenuous physical tasks in
specific environments
Construction and landscaping
workers
Construction workers reduce re-work as technology
predicts the location and nature of physical
obstacles
PHYSICAL SERVICES
Performs services that demand physical
activity
Hairdressers and cooks
Transport attendants can focus on customer needs
and service rather than technical tasks
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
6. Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 6
THE PREDOMINANT IMPACT OF INTELLIGENT
TECHNOLOGIES WILL BE TO AUGMENT WORK
31%
45%
46%
47%
51%
54%
61%
61%
64%
74%
51%
66%
34%
51%
49%
40%
26%
30%
25%
23%
18%
38%
3%
20%
3%
4%
9%
20%
9%
13%
13%
8%
11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Physical Manual Labor
Physical Services
Machine Operation and Manoeuvring
Technical Equipment Maintenance
Process and Analysis
Management and Leadership
Analytical Subject-Matter Expertise
Relational Subject-Matter Expertise
Empathy and Support
Science and Engineering
All Occupations Proportion of worker time that is
augmentable
Proportion of workers time that is
automatable
For most roles, augmentation holds great promise. Business and
government decisions will determine by how much and by when.
Note: simple average across occupations
Source: Accenture analysis of national labor force data
7. -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
In the US, Empathy and
Support roles (e.g. nurses
and psychiatrists) make up
the largest share of
employment.
THIS CREATES OPPORTUNITY
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 7
Number of workers (Full Time Equivalents), in thousands
Redistribution of worker time across Role Clusters in US (2017 – 2028)
Empathy and Support
Physical Manual Labor
Management and Leadership
Physical Services
Technical Equipment Maintenance
Science and Engineering
Machine Operation and Manoeuvring
Process and Analysis
Analytical Subject-Matter Expertise
Relational Subject-Matter Expertise
of their work time is augmentable.
14% might be augmented in the next
10 years.
If that happens, demand for these
roles could grow by 1.4 million
workers.
64%
• For skill supply to meet the new
skills demand in the US in 2028,
this redistribution of worker time
will be required across roles
• US working-age population will
increase by 2028, resulting in
greater demand for almost every
role
• Assumption: Investments in
intelligent technologies per
worker in 2028 reach current
investment levels in traditional
technologies per worker
8. In China, Physical Manual Labor makes up the largest share of employment.
By 2028 automation will impact a large share of this work, potentially reducing demand by up to 63
million workers. It will remain the dominant form of employment, but these workers will require
urgent skill building.
BUT WHERE THERE’S AUTOMATION, THERE’S RISK
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 8
Redistribution of worker time across Role Clusters in China (2017 – 2028)
Number of workers (Full Time Equivalents), in thousands
-70000 -60000 -50000 -40000 -30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10Physical Manual Labor
Management and Leadership
Empathy and Support
Physical Services
Machine Operation and Manoeuvring
Science and Engineering
Analytical Subject-Matter Expertise
Technical Equipment Maintenance
Relational Subject-Matter Expertise
Process and Analysis
• For skill supply to meet
the new skills demand in
China in 2028, this
redistribution of worker
time will be required
across roles
• China’s working-age
population will decrease
by 2028
• Assumption: China’s
investments in intelligent
technologies per worker
in 2028 reach current US
investment levels in
traditional technologies
per worker
9. Irrespective of the scale and speed of
augmentation and automation, we face a
major challenge:
THE VERY SKILLS WE
NEED MORE OF ARE NOT
PROVIDED BY TODAY’S
EDUCATION AND
LEARNING SYSTEMS.
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 9
10. Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 10
A NUMBER OF SKILLSETS ARE GROWING IN
IMPORTANCE ACROSS ALL ROLES
These are acquired through practice and experience, not in classrooms
• Complex Reasoning includes critical thinking, deductive reasoning, active learning and a set of higher-order cognitive capabilities.
• Socio-Emotional Intelligence involves active listening, social perceptiveness, persuasion, negotiation and service orientation.
• Sensory Perception incorporates a wide range of sensory capabilities that have been stimulated through our increasingly intimate relationship with digital technologies.
MANAGEMENT & LEADERSHIP
EMPATHY & SUPPORT
SCIENCE & ENGINEERING
ANALYTICAL SUBJECT-MATTER EXPERTISE
RELATIONAL SUBJECT- MATTER EXPERTISE
PROCESS & ANALYSIS
PHYSICAL SERVICES
TECHNICAL EQUIPMENT MAINTENANCE
MACHINE OPERATION & MANOEUVRING
PHYSICAL MANUAL LABOR
Source: Accenture analysis of data from The Occupational Information Network (O*NET) of the US Department of Labor
Note:
Complex
Reasoning
Socio-emotional
IntelligenceCreativity
Sensory
PerceptionGrowing
Importance
Decreasing
Importance
11. 3 STEPS TO TAKE
Shift focus from
Institutions to
Individuals
Speed up
Experiential
Learning
Empower
Vulnerable
Learners
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 11
12. SPEED UP EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING
Advances in neuroscience prove that the most effective way to learn these increasingly
important skills, especially for adults, is through practical hands-on application
Passive Active
Observation Immersion
Theoretical Real world experience
Memorizing Experimenting
Individual Team work
Experiential Learning includes:
Apprenticeships
Design thinking
Simulation tools
Immersive virtual reality
On-the-job training
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 12
13. SPEED UP EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING
VIRTUAL REALITY
Immerses users via special 3D
headsets. Helps create inexpensive
experiential learning that boosts
engagement and improves
outcomes.
A powerful tool for developing human
skills like empathy.
AUGMENTED REALITY
Blends the digital and physical worlds
by overlaying information, graphics
and sounds on the real world.
People can see data and information
as they work, facilitating on-the-job
learning.
Apply new technologies to accelerate and enhance experiential learning
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)
AI’s machine learning, natural
language processing and computer
vision capabilities help to offer insights,
guidance and feedback which
personalize learning.
It can automate processes and design
better courses through algorithm-
generated recommendations.
NEXT GEN DIGITAL LEARNING
PLATFORMS
Go beyond traditional massive open
online courses (MOOCs) by adding
video, animation and activities. They
adapt to the style and lifestyle of the user.
They use tailored content, advanced
pedagogic techniques and more robust
and flexible platforms.
THE BLOCKCHAIN
A distributed ledger that allows multiple
stakeholders to securely share access
to data. It can help issue fraud-proof
certificates with employers, or deliver
transparent and safe funding schemes
between learners and providers.
13
14. EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING IN PRACTICE
Walmart’s 200 training academies
provide two to six weeks of hands-on
training with classroom and sales floor
experience in centers located at or
near stores. It ranges from high-school
completion programs to associate’s
and bachelor’s degrees. Academies
keep learners connected to customers
through real work experiences.
Switzerland’s Vocational Educational and
Training (VET) initiative is a gold standard,
covering two-thirds of students graduating
from compulsory education.
Most economies struggle to emulate this
success. But the French government has
announced a plan to make apprenticeships
more attractive. It intends to increase monthly
pay and lift the maximum age of participants
from 26 to 30. It also plans to give
businesses and unions, rather than civil
servants, the task of defining the qualifications
for vocational training programs.
Walmart
Academy
France catches the
apprenticeships bug
“ “
Dan Bryant, Senior Vice President of Global Public
Policy and Government Affairs.
On-the-job training allows for a more intense learning experience
and keeps the skills of our workforce adapting to new realities.
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 14
15. SHIFT FOCUS FROM INSTITUTIONS TO INDIVIDUALS
Our analysis reveals that individuals will need a broader range of complex skillsets:
Change in importance of skills for Science & Engineering roles (2004-2017). These roles already require more
creativity and socio-emotional intelligence. This will accelerate.
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
Creativity
Social-emotional intelligence
Sensory perception
Simple reasoning
Complex reasoning
Psychomotor
STEM/Analysis
Physical
Simple communication
Management and Organization
Technical-operational
Scale based on US Department of Labor (O*Net) measure of skill importance, 1-5 scale
Source: Accenture analysis of data from The Occupational Information (O*Net) from the US Department of Labor, 2004-2017
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 15
16. Realign targets and metrics away from the
output of institutions, and onto the needs of
each learner
SHIFT FOCUS FROM INSTITUTIONS TO INDIVIDUALS
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 16
Move beyond misconceptions
about STEM and ‘soft’ skills
o Design incentives to build the right blend of skills within each worker, not just
across the workforce
o Start building well rounded learners at elementary school
o Break from terminology that lumps together all analytical and complex
reasoning skills with STEM. Develop such skills well beyond STEM
subjects and job roles.
o Explore legitimate and appropriate assessment techniques for capabilities
like creativity and empathy, Move beyond traditional testing based only on
memorization and regurgitation.
17. The U.S. Navy developed the Immersive Naval Officer Training System
(INOTS) with the University of Southern California to teach a wide range of
cognitive and non-cognitive skills to its young officers.
It prepares its junior leaders with interpersonal and social skills training.
INOTS involves virtual reality and classroom response technology. It
provides a safe space in which officers can learn to handle not just
technical issues, but the interpersonal skills required to handle sensitive or
challenging situations. INOTS has trained over 15,000 sailors since 2012.
Coorpacademy, a Switzerland- and France- based provider of training
solutions realized the need to help clients lead and communicate more
effectively in the world of new technologies.
The firm has introduced a blockchain course that is focused less on
technology and more on helping managers create a culture that will ease
collaboration with blockchain experts as this technology increasingly plays
a role in business.
SHIFT FOCUS TO INDIVIDUALS – IN PRACTICE
A blend of skills for
Navy officers
Extending beyond
tech skills
18. EMPOWER VULNERABLE LEARNERS
Lower-skilled work is more susceptible to automation. These workers also require the
broadest range of skill building, yet have less access to learning, compounding their
disadvantage. Older workers and those in smaller firms also have less access to learning.
Worker time subject to augmentation
*The ILO measures skill level by considering one or more of: i) the nature of the work performed; ii) the level of formal education; and iii) the amount of
informal on-the-job training and /or previous experience.
Source: Accenture analysis of national labor force data
Worker time subject to automation
27%
41%
63%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Low-skilled work
Medium-skilled work
High-skilled work
68%
54%
20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Low-skilled work
Medium-skilled work
High-skilled work
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 18
19. Offer modular courses
that fit in flexibly with
adult lives
EMPOWER VULNERABLE LEARNERS
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 19
Build guidance into
learning to help workers
navigate relevant
pathways
Provide flexible learning options that individuals can fit around their life and
work commitments and pursue at their own pace
Leverage new digital learning solutions designed to offer flexibility
Incorporate career pathway guidance to link learning to future opportunities
Recognize that many workers are uncertain of their learning and career
options
Create new funding
models to encourage
lifelong learning
Work with government and industry to create grants that provide personal
incentives and choices to pursue relevant learning
20. Incentivizing lifelong learning
in France and Singapore
EMPOWER VULNERABLE LEARNERS – IN PRACTICE
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 20
Beginning in 2020, the French Government will grant all
working age people a €5,000 credit to spend on training of
their choice. People will use a smartphone app to register
and pay for courses and to certify their qualifications.
Singapore’s SkillsFuture Credit started in 2016 and initially
offers the equivalent of US$370 to all citizens of 25 years
and older. Topped up over the years, it pays for
government-approved courses. A related program offers
workshops and other resources to help people develop their
own career and skills plans.
Udacity, recognizes that learning
programs must be flexible enough to
accommodate busy adults with many
responsibilities, at work and beyond.
Udacity focuses on short, “stackable”
courses; specifically, nano-degrees.
It also provides menus of options and
suggests pathways towards actual jobs.
“Self-driven learning is a difficult thing, so
we try to facilitate that connection to a
person’s next role,” says Kathleen
Mullaney, VP of Careers at Udacity.
Providing guidance and flexible
access
21. Armen Ovanessoff
Report Author.
Principal Director, Accenture Research
armen.ovanessoff@accenture.com
CONTACT INFORMATION
To learn more about how Accenture can help your organization assess its
future skills needs and adapt training and skilling strategies, contact
Copyright © 2018 Accenture. All rights reserved. 21
Eva Sage-Gavin
Global Managing Director,
Talent & Organization, Accenture
eva.sage-gavin@accenture.com
Nicholas Whittall
Managing Director, Talent &
Organization, Accenture
nicholas.whitall@accenture.com
Laurence Morvan
Managing Director, Chief of Staff, Office of
the Chairman & CEO, Accenture
laurence.morvan@accenture.com