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Strategic Perspectives on the Utilities
Consumer Marketplace
Solar will eventually replace nuclear and coal, and be
established as the default technology of the future to
generate and...
3Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved.
A major transformation of utility markets is challenging traditional
busi...
Shifting Demand Age of Plenty Energy Consumerization
4
The traditional revenue models of utilities, gentailers and retaile...
5Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved.
In most regions globally there is a decoupling of energy use from growth
...
6
Energy efficiency will continue to influence energy demand
Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved.
…and investme...
8.2 2,000
4.5
600 <3
<300
7Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved.
Declining costs of distributed energy are expan...
8Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved.
Accenture analysis of the likely demand disruption scenario points to a
s...
9
Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved.
Shifting market dynamics and new technologies are increasing the role of...
2011-Ongoing2009
10
Accenture’s global energy research programs continue to track the
changing marketplace
Copyright © 201...
11Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved.
APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace
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Business Unusual: Strategic Perspectives on the Utilities Consumer Marketplace

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A major transformation of utilities market is challenging traditional business and operational models. Accenture analysis of the likely demand disruption scenario points to a significant financial impact on the traditional utility model by 2025. Leading utilities are adapting to the chaining marketplace.

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Business Unusual: Strategic Perspectives on the Utilities Consumer Marketplace

  1. 1. Strategic Perspectives on the Utilities Consumer Marketplace
  2. 2. Solar will eventually replace nuclear and coal, and be established as the default technology of the future to generate and supply electricity," UBS Solar Report, July 2015 “Asian firms could be taking over Europe and American companies at the cutting edge of battery technology… building a $15.6 billion industry by 2024” Navigant Research, February 2015 “In the next ten years, Asia will account for 65 percent of growth in energy consumption worldwide...” renewable energy offers leapfrog opportunities. Singapore Business News, November 2014 “Renewables with battery storage due to reach grid parity in large parts of the world within 15 years.” Citigroup, Energy Darwinism II, September 2014 “Morgan Stanley estimates that Origin and AGL could see reductions in earnings before interest and tax of up to $100 million in 2020, as consumers choose to store the output from their solar arrays in battery storage.” Morgan Stanley Australia, May 2015 “By 2025, everybody will be able to produce and store power. And it will be green and cost competitive, i.e. even cheaper than buying power from utilities.” UBS, analyst note on EV and solar, August 2014 2Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace For utilities globally it is a time of business unusual!
  3. 3. 3Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. A major transformation of utility markets is challenging traditional business and operating models Energy efficiency and cost- competitive distributed energy resources Innovative and pervasive digital technologies Choice-conscious and sophisticated customers Availability of capital and rising investments levels$ • Game-changing product and services • Lower barriers to entry • Demand disruption • Shifting competition • Stranded assets • Challenged business models • Make strategic choices on role and scope of services in the market • Invest in key capabilities in preparation for the future model • Protect earnings in the current model and shape the migration to a revenue new model Move towards deregulation and retail competition Utility Operations Re-invention APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace
  4. 4. Shifting Demand Age of Plenty Energy Consumerization 4 The traditional revenue models of utilities, gentailers and retailers worldwide is shifting Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. • Declining energy intensity of major economies • Investments in energy efficiency • Cost-competitive renewables and distributed energy • Availability of mass-market EVs and battery storage • Excess supply and depressed wholesale markets • Zero marginal cost renewables • Load / usage shifting away from peak pricing • Prosumer participation • Lower barriers to entry with scalable business solutions • Switching made easy • Extreme transparency of information and offerings • Rising competitive interest and intensity Electric Vehicles Source: IEA Renewables Market, Frost & Sullivan, Tesla Giga-factory Forecasts 180 K 10 M Number of plugin-hybrid & fuel cell vehicles 2013 2020 Renewables 1,690 GW 2,555 GW Global installed renewable capacity 2013 2020 Energy Storage 0 GW/yr 35 GW/yr Forecasted Tesla Giga- factory Production 2013 2020 Signs of the Evolution Underway APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace
  5. 5. 5Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. In most regions globally there is a decoupling of energy use from growth as efficiency improves and some economies become more service based Source: GDP – The World Bank Databank, Energy Intensity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) measured as Btu per Year 2005 U.S. Dollars (Market Exchange Rates)) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Global GDP Vs. Economic Energy Intensity Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP Global GDP (USD Trillion) APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace
  6. 6. 6 Energy efficiency will continue to influence energy demand Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. …and investment in efficiency continues to growEnergy efficiency is increasing… Source: UK Department of Energy, US Department of Energy 50% 50% 75% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Global Investment in Energy Efficiency ($BN) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance – Includes residential, commercial , and industrial spending Efficiency improvements of new homes, appliances and lighting over the past 10-15 years 30% APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace
  7. 7. 8.2 2,000 4.5 600 <3 <300 7Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. Declining costs of distributed energy are expanding consumer options and displacing traditional energy demand Source: The Economist, Rocky Mountain Institute, GreenTech Media, Accenture analysis 2009 2014 2020 Residential Solar Installed Cost ($/W) & Lithium-Ion Battery Pack ($/kWh) APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace
  8. 8. 8Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. Accenture analysis of the likely demand disruption scenario points to a significant financial impact on the traditional utility model by 2025 Accenture modeling of residential and commercial demand scenarios1,2 US Notes: 1. Excludes prosumer generation – 2. All scenarios incorporate projection of demographics, electricity price increase, deployment of energy efficiency technologies, PV costs, phasing of PV subsidies in 2018 for EU and 2020 for the US – 3. Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom – 4. At current retail prices Source: Accenture analysis 2 400 2 500 2 600 2 700 2 800 2 900 3 000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 TWh Status Quo Demand Disruption Perfect Storm $18bn4 160Twh 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 TWh Status Quo Demand Disruption Perfect Storm €39bn4 135Twh EU-103 APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace
  9. 9. 9 Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. Shifting market dynamics and new technologies are increasing the role of consumers across the value chain Generation Market Operations Transmission Distribution Smart Meters Consumers & Beyond the Meter Distributed Generation Prosumer Megawatts & Negawatts Micro-grids & Storage Home Energy Mgmt. Community Energy APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace
  10. 10. 2011-Ongoing2009 10 Accenture’s global energy research programs continue to track the changing marketplace Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. • >60,000 consumers surveyed in 26 countries • >2,000 small/medium businesses • Market insights and leading practices from 80+ energy providers and 40+ cross-industry providers • >150 utilities executives surveyed across 20 countries • Scenario modelling of impact of distributed energy and energy efficiency • Ongoing studies working with UN Global Compact, World Economic Forum and World Energy Council 2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015 2015201420132012 APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace
  11. 11. 11Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. APAC Utilities – Strategic Perspectives on the Consumer Marketplace Explore our latest insights and recommendations in Utilities @Accenture_util @Accenture Utilities Follow us: Visit: www.accenture.com/utilities

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