Here's my presentation for the 1st annual Commercial Finance Association Chicago. This is a PPT specifically tailored towards ABL and credit. It provides the economic context for the US political economy, what Trump and Clinton are proposing to grow the economy and where future growth will happen. AI, fintech, big data, and cheap cloud computing are all included.

1. 2016 Election
Impact on business, jobs and lives

2. Problems and Solutions
US & Intl Economic Situation
2016 Presidential Race
Future Growth

4. myf.red/g/7bWt
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
fred.stlouisfed.org
Source:US.Bureau of EconomicAnalysis
Real GrossDomesticProduct
PercentChangefromPrecedingPeriod

5. myf.red/g/70H5
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
fred.stlouisfed.org
Civilian Unemployment Rate
Total unemployed,plusall marginally attached workersplustotal employed part timefor economicreasons
Percent

6. myf.red/g/7ghY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
fred.stlouisfed.org
Source:US.Bureau of EconomicAnalysis
Personal Consumption Expenditures(PCE)ExcludingFood and Energy (chain-typepriceindex)
PercentChangefromPrecedingPeriod

7. US Dollar +25%

8. 3yr Oil and Nat Gas

9. Rate Dilemma
“There are limits to what monetary policy can and,
indeed, should, do. The burden must also fall on
fiscal and other policies to do their part to help
create conditions conducive to economic stability.”
SF Fed President John Williams

10. Productivity=Growth

12. The 10yr Debt Time Bomb

13. Policy solutions for growth
Free Trade=lower tariffs
Reg. Relief=reduced costs
Tax reform=capital formation
w/incentives
Infrastructure=efficiency
Energy Production

14. Trump Econ/Tax Plan
Cut Corp& Pass thru
to 15%
Carried interest as
ordinary
1x 10% Repat Tax
Ag TPP and NAFTA
Impose tariffs on
imported goods
Big Drop in Interest
Deductibility
New $500B infrastructureFull expensing!

15. 100 Day Energy & Reg Plan
Energy Platform:
Save coal industry,
Pass Keystone,
Lift moratorium for energy on
Fed lands
Cancel Paris Climate Agreement
Rescind and Reform:
Obama executive actions,
Climate Action Plan,
WOTUS,
Obamacare,
Dodd-Frank

16. Trump biz plans help/hurt
Help: big tech & big pharma
Hurt: debt heavy balance sheets
Help: industrials & manufacturers
Hurt: free trade
Help: energy production
Help: Transportation/Engineering
Help: banking

17. The Good and the Bad
Source: Tax Foundation

18. CLINTON PLAN
Fair share C tax
No Free Trade
Exit Tax
$275B Infrastructure
plan
Extend/expand
Obama regulation
programs

19. Big Change to Cap Gains

20. Fin Reg & Energy Plan
500mln solar panels by 2021
Implement Clean Power Plan &
Paris Agreements
$60B Clean energy challenge
Risk fee on the largest financial institutions
No hedge fund investing
Hold senior bankers accountable for losses
No financial firm is ever too big or too risky
HFT tax, close carried interest

21. Clinton plans help/hurt
Hurt: MNCs competitiveness
Hurt: raises taxes on top earners/
capital formation
Help: transportation/enginering
Help: energy/alternatives
Hurt: energy/hydrocarbon production
Hurt: banking

22. Good, Bad and Complicated
Source: Tax Foundation

23. 2016 Recap
Clinton:
biz tax hikes
build on regs
cap gains tax
no free trade
big alternatives
big infra
create pathway
Trump:
biz tax cuts
reduce regs
cap gains cut
no free trade
big hydro carbon
big infra
build a wall

24. Source: PIIE

27. Major Credit Issues
Regulatory Burden
Politics/Election fat tail
Slow growth & low rates

28. Policy solution summary

29. Future Growth Solutions
AI, Big Data, Analytics
Fintech
Reg Tech

30. Focus on what your own company does best — for
instance, identifying investment themes, assessing
credit exposure, managing counterparty risk, or
executing and settling financial transactions — and
then tap into the FinTech pool for innovation that
can support or expand upon your organization’s
core market.
PWC: 2016 Financial Services Trends

31. Big Data, Analytics, AI

32. Fintech
Block Chain isn’t just for Bitcoin
Robo advisors: Betterment & Wealthfront
Real estate crowdfunding: Peer Street,
Real Crow, Realty Mogul
Digitally Enabled Lenders

33. Regtech: what it needs to solve
Business model risk
Failure resiliency
Legal structure simplicity

34. Final Thoughts…