This are the slides from the workshop I delivered to the agile consortium Belgium on 17 September 2015

1. #NoEstimates
@YvesHanoulle
1

2. #NoEstimates
What’s in the name?
Why not ?
#BeyondEstimates
#BetterPrediction
2

3. WHY
#NoEstimates
?
3

4. How good can YOU
estimate?
4

5. In 1986, Profs. S.D. Conte, H.E. Dunsmoir, and V.Y.
Shen proposed that a good estimation approach
should provide estimates that are within 25% of
the actual results 75% of the time
--Steve McConnel, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art
5

6. Who has delivered a project ?
- on time
- within budget
- what was requested
within 25%
6

7. Who has delivered 7,5 out of 10 projects?
- on time
- within budget
- what was requested
within 25%
7

8. I need two
volunteers
8

9. How long do you think it
will take them to distributed
9

11. timekeeper?
11

12. START !
12

13. result?
13

14. my prediction
14

15. 15

16. have a large range
16

17. between
5 seconds & 10 minutes
17

18. chaos report
18

19. chaos report
19
80% Late
or Failed
Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell

20. chaos report
20
Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
The larger the project,
the bigger the
problem

21. 21
cone of uncertainty

22. 22
cone of uncertainty

23. 23
cone of uncertainty
not scientific

24. BIAS
24

25. BIAS
25

26. BIAS
26

27. WHY
do we
estimate?

28. contracts

29. who wins a contract
bidding?

31. Why do we have
budgets?

32. this is our budget
budget

33. budget
situation 1
cost
thank
you

34. budget
situation 2
cost
saving

35. budget
situation 2
cost
you over estimated. Next year
you will only get 80% of your
requested budget
saving

36. budget
situation 2 year +1
cost
let’s spend this

37. budget
situation 3
cost
extra budget
requested

38. budget
situation 3: A
cost
extra budget
requested
rejected !!
X

39. budget
situation 3: A
cost
extra budget
requested
rejected !!
I hope you delivered in small
chunks
X

40. budget
situation 3: B
cost
extra budget
requested
Approved. Please estimate
better next time.

41. budget
situation 3: year +1
Let’s ask for 120% too avoid the
risk of being rejected.

42. budget
needed
budget
let’s spend this
1 2
Why do we have
budgets?
budget
budget
3a 3b

43. Controlling costs makes
cost higher
John Seddon
.hanoulle.be/2010/07/john-seddon-why-controlling-costs-makes-c

44. what about
story points?

45. The point
of story
points was
to obscure
time
@RonJeffries

46. Story of a team
46

52. #NoEstimates
RegularEstimates
“The chart is a snapshot of one team of 20+ teams over a 2 year period.” – Cory Foy

53. Which is more
predictable
?

54. it’s NOT just me
54
join @Duarte_Vasco on
http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjects
DB

55. let me repeat
55
#NoEstimates has a
same or better prediction
then estimates

56. Estimates assume we are in an Ordered Domain, where
reductionism works. Software however is in the Complex
and Complicated domain where reductionism does not
work. #NoEstimates

57. rules of #NoEstimates
1. Select the most important piece of work you need to do
2. Break that work down into risk neutral pieces of work
3. Develop each piece of work
4. Iterate and refactor
5. ( Count for predictability )

58. workshop

59. workshop
create 4 groups of around 10 people

60. imaging 17 September 2016
you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while.
What have you learned?
workshop

61. 61
workshop
What did not work?
What were the challenges?
What worked?
What were the advantages?
imaging 17 September 2016
you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while.
What have you learned?

62. 62
workshopimaging 17 September 2016
you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while.
What have you learned?
What did not work?
What were the challenges?
What worked?
What were the advantages?

63. 63
workshoppick a side
- what you prefer
- what you disagree with
- to make it even..
What did not work?
What were the challenges?
What worked?
What were the advantages?

64. 64
workshoplet’s discuss
Team red starts with an argumentTeam green replies

65. 65
workshopVOTE

66. #NoEstimates book
http://noestimatesbook.com
http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow

67. @YvesHanoulle
your company?
Available from
1/10/2015
http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount
>> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow