1. Professor Darryn McEvoy
Leader of the Climate Change Adaptation Program,
Global Cities Institute, RMIT University
Deputy Director,
Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation (VCCCAR)
Solutions and future directions: YVW, August 2011

2. Outline of presentation
1. Climate change: the great contemporary dilemma
2. Clarifying climate change agendas
3. What should we be adapting to?
4. Research activity in Victoria
5. Challenges and opportunities facing business and industry
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

3. Climate change: the great contemporary dilemma
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

4. Current day impacts
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

5. Clarifying climate change agendas
Climate science / impacts
Global warming / mitigation
Climate change / adaptation / disaster risk reduction
Mitigation: ‘avoiding the unmanageable’
Adaptation: ‘managing the unavoidable’
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

6. What should we be adapting to?
Low emissions scenario High emissions scenario
2070 2070
Temperature + 0.9 ºC to + 2.0 ºC + 1.8 ºC to + 3.8 ºC
Number of days over 14 20
35 ºC: Melbourne
(current 9)
Number of days over 45 59
35 ºC: Mildura
(current 32)
Rainfall + 2% to - 14% + 3% to - 25%
Drought Likely increase between 10% and 80%
Extreme events
Sea level rise Likely rise between 0.18m to 0.59m by 2095, with a
possible much greater rise
Extremes Likely to be more extreme rain events, and more extreme
bushfire events
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

7. Research activity: RMIT
• Impact of the 2009 heatwave on critical urban infrastructure
• Framing climate change adaptation – guidance for local
authorities / capacity building (navigator, economics, social
narratives)
• Emergency management (bushfires) and use of IT simulation
to improve decision-making
• Climate resilient seaports
• Climate change and sustainable urban development in the
Asia-Pacific region
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

8. Research activity: Victorian Centre for Climate
Change Adaptation Research (VCCCAR)
2010 2011
Scenarios Responding to the urban heat
island
Resilient urban systems Enhancing Water Infrastructure
Provision with Climate Change
Uncertainty
Integrated land management Learning from Indigenous and
traditional community knowledge
Framing adaptation Design-led decision support for
regional climate adaptation
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

9. ‘Think tank’ activity: VCCCAR
• Adapting aspirations and
expectations on the coastal
suburban and regional fringe
• Gippsland climate change and
adaptation study
• Regional Business Development in a
Variable and Changing Climate:
Strategies for Central Victoria
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

10. Challenges
• Means and variability in
climate will be different in the
future, and spatially /
regionally differentiated
• How to cope, and make
decisions, under conditions of
uncertainty
• Future climate change is only
one source of uncertainty
• Multiple hazards and joint
probability events
• Cascading effects
Flooding in Victoria 2011: Herald Sun
• Importance of socio-economic
drivers (climate adaptation /
climate sensitive / non climate)
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

11. Opportunities
• Tools for helping to cope with
uncertainty: use of scenarios,
risk assessment, flexible
management approaches
• Australia long experience of
dealing with variable climate
• A chance to capitalise on past
success and encourage
further innovation
• Emerging markets: new
technologies and behaviour
change (water tanks etc)
• Adaptation as an iterative
learning process, which
requires new relationships and
ways of working
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

12. More informed decision-making
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

13. Thanks for your attention
Darryn.mcevoy@rmit.edu.au