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Presented by Aditi Das
Jordan Peasel
Yanan(Phoebe) Tan
Chris Zakhem
NYSE: SIX
Presented on 12/8/2015
Investment Manager
2
• Aditi Das
• Senior
• Accounting &
Finance
• Jordan Peasel
• Senior
• Accounting &
Finance
• Chris Zakhem
• Senior
• Finance & Minor
in Chemistry
• Phoebe Tan
• Senior
• Finance &
Minor in
Statistics
Agenda
3
Screening Process
Company Review
Microeconomics Conditions
Industry Review
Recent Stock Performance
Financial Analysis
Financial Projection
Valuation
Recommendation
Screening Process
4
Market Cap:
$4.88 B
Piotroski’s
Test: 6
DiversificationStrong ROE
Six Flags
Company Overview
5
2014 Annual Report
• 16 Theme Parks in the US
• 1 Theme Park in Canada
• 1 Theme Park in Mexico
• Looking to add another in Mexico
Six Flags has over 800 rides, 130 of them are roller coaster rides
Has rights to Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, Tweety Bird, Yosemite Sam, Batman, Superman, Yogi Bear,
Scooby-Doo, The Flintstones for merchandise, advertisement and entertainment
Company Review
6
2014 Annual Report; Bloomberg
55%
5%
38%
1%
Revenue Breakdown
Theme Park Admissions
Sponsorship, Licensing &
Other
Theme Park Food,
Merchandise and Other
Accomodations Revenue
0.00x
10.00x
20.00x
30.00x
40.00x
50.00x
60.00x
70.00x
80.00x 12/1/2010
4/1/2011
8/1/2011
12/1/2011
4/1/2012
8/1/2012
12/1/2012
4/1/2013
8/1/2013
12/1/2013
4/1/2014
8/1/2014
12/1/2014
4/1/2015
8/1/2015
12/1/2015
P/E
DATE
P/E 5yr Trend
SWOT Analysis
7
• Strong Diversification of
services within Theme Parks
• Exclusive rights on characters
to be used in Theme Parks
• Well Designed Website
• High R&D Costs
• High Sunk Costs
• High Capital Expenditures
• Dependence on Seasonal
Workforce
• International Growth through
franchising in Europe and
Asia
• Discussions of new park in
Mexico
• Economic Recession
• Rapid development in
technology
• Natural Disasters, contagious
diseases, terrorism
2014 Annual Report; Bloomberg; El Financiero
Key Risks
8
2014 Annual Report
Cyber
Security
Risks
Risks of
Accidents
Not
Adequate
Insurance
Coverage
Intellectual
Property
must be
protected
Economic
Conditions
Affect Third
Party
Contracts
Other
Leisure
Alternatives
Macroeconomics Conditions
9
Spending and Adolescents within the United States
Domestic and International Inbound Trips into the United States
IBIS
Industry Review
10
Barriers to
Entry
Threat of
Substitutes
Bargaining
Power of
Suppliers
Bargaining
Power of
Buyers
Competitive
Rivalry
Porter’s
Five
Forces53%
17%
9%
8%
7%
6%
Market Share
Walt Disney Company
Universal Parks and Resorts
SeaWorld Parks and
Entertainment
Cedar Fair
Six Flags
Other
4%
55%
25%
16%
Product Segmentation
Sponsorship Licensing
and Other Fees
Admissions
Food and Beverages
Merchandise
IBIS
Recent Stock Performance
11
Six Flags is currently trading above the 20 day and 200 day moving average
Yahoo! Finance
Recent Stock Performance
12
Out of its competitors, Six Flags is trading above
Yahoo! Finance
Financial Analysis
13
50.07%
53.10%
54.05%
54.58%
55.10%
47.00%
48.00%
49.00%
50.00%
51.00%
52.00%
53.00%
54.00%
55.00%
56.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gross Margin
64.94%
1.30%
37.66%
14.13%
9.70%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Net Income Margin
2014 & 2013 10-K
Financial Analysis
14
1.30x 1.40x
4.20x
1.63x
1.30x
0.00x
0.50x
1.00x
1.50x
2.00x
2.50x
3.00x
3.50x
4.00x
4.50x
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Current Ratio
1.01x 1.13x
3.62x
1.02x
0.57x
0.00x
0.50x
1.00x
1.50x
2.00x
2.50x
3.00x
3.50x
4.00x
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quick Ratio
1.05x
2.33x
4.31x
3.84x
3.13x
0.00x
0.50x
1.00x
1.50x
2.00x
2.50x
3.00x
3.50x
4.00x
4.50x
5.00x
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Interest Coverage Ratio
2014 & 2013 10-K
DuPont Analysis
15
2014 & 2013 10-K
84.68%
338.88%
190.46%
76.93% 71.27%
0.00%
50.00%
100.00%
150.00%
200.00%
250.00%
300.00%
350.00%
400.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tax Burden
554.82%
2.52%
103.45%
70.69% 69.94%
0.00%
100.00%
200.00%
300.00%
400.00%
500.00%
600.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Interest Burden
13.82%
15.20%
19.11%
25.99%
19.46%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Operating Margin
0.36x
0.38x
0.35x
0.43x
0.46x
0.00x
0.10x
0.20x
0.30x
0.40x
0.50x
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Asset Turnover
73.00%
1.71%
45.35%
42.02%
50.93%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ROE
3.15x 3.45x 3.44x
6.99x
11.32x
0.00x
2.00x
4.00x
6.00x
8.00x
10.00x
12.00x
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Leverage
Comparable Company Analysis
16
SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:SEAS)
•Operates as a theme park and entertainment company in the U.S.
•Features marine-life theme parks in Orlando, San Antonio, and San Diego
•Owns Busch Garden theme parks and other various theme parks across the U.S.
Cedar Fair, L.P. (NYSE:FUN)
•Owns and operates amusement and water parks, as well as hotels in the U.S. and Canada
•Operates 11 amusement parks, 3 outdoor water parks, and 5 hotels
•Notable parks include Kings Dominion in Richmond and Cedar Point on Lake Erie
Merlin Entertainments plc (LSE:MERL)
•Operates visitor attractions worldwide
•Attractions include LEGOLAND, SEA LIFE, and the Dungeons
•Headquartered in Poole, U.K.
Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661)
•Operates and manages theme parks and hotels in Japan
•Parks include Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea
•Headquartered in Japan
Cap IQ
Greenblatt Ratios
17
Cap IQ
0.2351x
0.0945x
0.2344x 0.2317x
0.0000x
0.0500x
0.1000x
0.1500x
0.2000x
0.2500x
SIX SEAS MERL 4661
EBIT / Tangible Assets
0.0467x
0.0524x
0.0583x
0.0501x
0.0000x
0.0100x
0.0200x
0.0300x
0.0400x
0.0500x
0.0600x
0.0700x
SIX SEAS MERL 4661
EBIT / EV
0.2818x
0.1469x
0.2927x
0.2818x
0.0000x
0.0500x
0.1000x
0.1500x
0.2000x
0.2500x
0.3000x
0.3500x
SIX SEAS MERL 4661
Sum of Ratios
Comparable Company Analysis
18
• We used P/E, P/Forward EPS, and
P/Sales
• Median multiples were selected
and applied against SIX’s financial
data
• We equally weighted each of these
multiples for a valuation of $40.35
Bloomberg; Cap IQ
Price /
LTM FY1
Company Name Ticker EPS EPS Sales
SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. NYSE:SEAS 44.2x 18.9x 1.1x
Cedar Fair, L.P. NYSE:FUN 25.6x 15.8x 2.5x
Merlin Entertainments plc LSE:MERL 26.4x 21.3x 3.4x
Oriental Land Co., Ltd. TSE:4661 31.4x 31.6x 5.0x
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation NYSE:SIX 42.1x 27.9x 4.1x
Minimum 25.6x 15.8x 1.1x
Mean 31.9x 21.9x 3.0x
Median 28.9x 20.1x 2.9x
Maximum 44.2x 31.6x 5.0x
Comparable Companies Valuation
SIX Data 1.3 1.9 13.1
Selected Multiple 31.9x 21.9x 3.0x
Price per Share 40.20$ 41.61$ 39.24$
Average Price 40.35$
Revenue Projection
19
(in thousands except per capita)
2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Theme Park Revenue Calculation
Attendance 26,115 26,601 27,096 27,600 28,113 28,637
Admissions 26.45 27.96 29.55 31.24 33.02 34.90
Non-Admissions 18.45 18.96 19.49 20.03 20.58 21.15
Guest Revenue - Admissions 690,666 743,643 800,684 862,099 928,226 999,425
Guest Revenue - Non-Admissions 481,766 504,340 527,972 552,711 578,609 605,721
Guest Revenue - Total 1,172,432 1,247,983 1,328,655 1,414,810 1,506,835 1,605,146
Guest Revenue - Actual 1,172,435 1,247,989 1,328,664 1,414,822 1,506,851 1,605,165
Growth Rate - Admissions 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67%
Growth Rate - Non-Admissions 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69%
Forecast
(in thousands except per capita)
2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Theme park admissions 690,744 743,727 800,774 862,197 928,331 999,538
Growth Rate 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67%
Theme park food, merchandise and other 481,691 504,262 527,890 552,625 578,520 605,627
Growth Rate 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69%
Forecast
2014 & 2013 10-K
WACC Calculation
20
Bloomberg
Risk Free Rate 2.29%
Market Risk Premium 5.92%
Beta (5-year) 0.905
CAPMCost of Equity 7.644%
Realized Return for past 2years 25.96%
Adjusted Cost of Equity 11.31%
CAPM
Current Share Price $53.06
Average Shares Outstanding 91,837
Market Value of Equity 4,872,883$
Market Value of Debt 1,515,382
Equity Weight 76.28%
Debt Weight 23.72%
Cost of Equity 11.31%
Cost of Debt 4.69%
Tax Rate 32.49%
WACC 9.38%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
• Risk Free Rate: US 10-Year Treasury Note
• Adjusted Cost of Equity: 80% of CAPM Cost of
Equity + 20% of Realized Return for past 2 years
• Cost of Debt: From the projected debt schedule
Discounted Cash Flow
21
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
EBIT 310,993 339,949 379,607 423,844 471,185 523,590
Less: Taxes (66,403) (85,593) (99,052) (113,348) (128,646) (145,575)
Add: Depreciation &Amortization 168,999 148,045 128,075 108,107 105,107 119,687 125,334 131,271 137,467 144,090
changes in accounts receivable (1,794) 11,062 22,086 7,214 (6,503) 3,446 3,793 4,147 4,304 4,681
Changes in inventories (2,569) 1,307 (108) (1,073) 346 1,412 1,555 1,700 1,764 1,919
Changes in accounts payable (9,519) (243) 884 (5,149) 317 1,293 1,423 1,556 1,615 1,757
Less: Capital Expenditure 91,680 99,989 101,853 108,660 112,526 116,474 120,561 124,792 129,171 133,703
Free Cash Flow 243,645$ 254,003$ 281,403$ 312,685$ 346,382$ 383,559$
Discount Factor 9.38%
PV of Free Cash Flow 238,247 227,085 230,016 233,677 236,671 239,607
Sum of PV of FCF 1,405,303$
ForecastHistorical
Long-Term Growth Rate 3.50%
Gordon Growth Free Cash Flow 6,756,510
Present Value 4,220,761
Terminal Growth
Enterprise Value 5,626,064
Less: Net Debt (1,304,554)
Equity Value 4,321,510
Shares Outstanding 91,837
Price Per Share 47.06$
Value Per Share
47.06$ 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50%
8.38% 48.86$ 53.56$ 59.22$ 66.17$ 74.92$
8.88% 44.06$ 47.95$ 52.55$ 58.11$ 64.92$
9.38% 39.99$ 43.25$ 47.06$ 51.57$ 57.02$
9.88% 36.50$ 39.26$ 42.45$ 46.19$ 50.62$
10.38% 33.47$ 35.83$ 38.54$ 41.67$ 45.34$
Terminal Growth
2014 & 2013 10-K
Recommendation
22
Positives: Dividend Yield is 4.42% & New Market Growth; Negatives: High and Volatile PE Ratio
We recommend adding Six Flags to the Watch List
Current
Stock Price
Comparable
Value
DCF
Valuation
$52.55
$40.35
$47.06

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SIX2015-12

  • 1. Presented by Aditi Das Jordan Peasel Yanan(Phoebe) Tan Chris Zakhem NYSE: SIX Presented on 12/8/2015
  • 2. Investment Manager 2 • Aditi Das • Senior • Accounting & Finance • Jordan Peasel • Senior • Accounting & Finance • Chris Zakhem • Senior • Finance & Minor in Chemistry • Phoebe Tan • Senior • Finance & Minor in Statistics
  • 3. Agenda 3 Screening Process Company Review Microeconomics Conditions Industry Review Recent Stock Performance Financial Analysis Financial Projection Valuation Recommendation
  • 4. Screening Process 4 Market Cap: $4.88 B Piotroski’s Test: 6 DiversificationStrong ROE Six Flags
  • 5. Company Overview 5 2014 Annual Report • 16 Theme Parks in the US • 1 Theme Park in Canada • 1 Theme Park in Mexico • Looking to add another in Mexico Six Flags has over 800 rides, 130 of them are roller coaster rides Has rights to Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, Tweety Bird, Yosemite Sam, Batman, Superman, Yogi Bear, Scooby-Doo, The Flintstones for merchandise, advertisement and entertainment
  • 6. Company Review 6 2014 Annual Report; Bloomberg 55% 5% 38% 1% Revenue Breakdown Theme Park Admissions Sponsorship, Licensing & Other Theme Park Food, Merchandise and Other Accomodations Revenue 0.00x 10.00x 20.00x 30.00x 40.00x 50.00x 60.00x 70.00x 80.00x 12/1/2010 4/1/2011 8/1/2011 12/1/2011 4/1/2012 8/1/2012 12/1/2012 4/1/2013 8/1/2013 12/1/2013 4/1/2014 8/1/2014 12/1/2014 4/1/2015 8/1/2015 12/1/2015 P/E DATE P/E 5yr Trend
  • 7. SWOT Analysis 7 • Strong Diversification of services within Theme Parks • Exclusive rights on characters to be used in Theme Parks • Well Designed Website • High R&D Costs • High Sunk Costs • High Capital Expenditures • Dependence on Seasonal Workforce • International Growth through franchising in Europe and Asia • Discussions of new park in Mexico • Economic Recession • Rapid development in technology • Natural Disasters, contagious diseases, terrorism 2014 Annual Report; Bloomberg; El Financiero
  • 8. Key Risks 8 2014 Annual Report Cyber Security Risks Risks of Accidents Not Adequate Insurance Coverage Intellectual Property must be protected Economic Conditions Affect Third Party Contracts Other Leisure Alternatives
  • 9. Macroeconomics Conditions 9 Spending and Adolescents within the United States Domestic and International Inbound Trips into the United States IBIS
  • 10. Industry Review 10 Barriers to Entry Threat of Substitutes Bargaining Power of Suppliers Bargaining Power of Buyers Competitive Rivalry Porter’s Five Forces53% 17% 9% 8% 7% 6% Market Share Walt Disney Company Universal Parks and Resorts SeaWorld Parks and Entertainment Cedar Fair Six Flags Other 4% 55% 25% 16% Product Segmentation Sponsorship Licensing and Other Fees Admissions Food and Beverages Merchandise IBIS
  • 11. Recent Stock Performance 11 Six Flags is currently trading above the 20 day and 200 day moving average Yahoo! Finance
  • 12. Recent Stock Performance 12 Out of its competitors, Six Flags is trading above Yahoo! Finance
  • 13. Financial Analysis 13 50.07% 53.10% 54.05% 54.58% 55.10% 47.00% 48.00% 49.00% 50.00% 51.00% 52.00% 53.00% 54.00% 55.00% 56.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Gross Margin 64.94% 1.30% 37.66% 14.13% 9.70% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Net Income Margin 2014 & 2013 10-K
  • 14. Financial Analysis 14 1.30x 1.40x 4.20x 1.63x 1.30x 0.00x 0.50x 1.00x 1.50x 2.00x 2.50x 3.00x 3.50x 4.00x 4.50x 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Current Ratio 1.01x 1.13x 3.62x 1.02x 0.57x 0.00x 0.50x 1.00x 1.50x 2.00x 2.50x 3.00x 3.50x 4.00x 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quick Ratio 1.05x 2.33x 4.31x 3.84x 3.13x 0.00x 0.50x 1.00x 1.50x 2.00x 2.50x 3.00x 3.50x 4.00x 4.50x 5.00x 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Interest Coverage Ratio 2014 & 2013 10-K
  • 15. DuPont Analysis 15 2014 & 2013 10-K 84.68% 338.88% 190.46% 76.93% 71.27% 0.00% 50.00% 100.00% 150.00% 200.00% 250.00% 300.00% 350.00% 400.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Tax Burden 554.82% 2.52% 103.45% 70.69% 69.94% 0.00% 100.00% 200.00% 300.00% 400.00% 500.00% 600.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Interest Burden 13.82% 15.20% 19.11% 25.99% 19.46% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Operating Margin 0.36x 0.38x 0.35x 0.43x 0.46x 0.00x 0.10x 0.20x 0.30x 0.40x 0.50x 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Asset Turnover 73.00% 1.71% 45.35% 42.02% 50.93% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ROE 3.15x 3.45x 3.44x 6.99x 11.32x 0.00x 2.00x 4.00x 6.00x 8.00x 10.00x 12.00x 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Leverage
  • 16. Comparable Company Analysis 16 SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:SEAS) •Operates as a theme park and entertainment company in the U.S. •Features marine-life theme parks in Orlando, San Antonio, and San Diego •Owns Busch Garden theme parks and other various theme parks across the U.S. Cedar Fair, L.P. (NYSE:FUN) •Owns and operates amusement and water parks, as well as hotels in the U.S. and Canada •Operates 11 amusement parks, 3 outdoor water parks, and 5 hotels •Notable parks include Kings Dominion in Richmond and Cedar Point on Lake Erie Merlin Entertainments plc (LSE:MERL) •Operates visitor attractions worldwide •Attractions include LEGOLAND, SEA LIFE, and the Dungeons •Headquartered in Poole, U.K. Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661) •Operates and manages theme parks and hotels in Japan •Parks include Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea •Headquartered in Japan Cap IQ
  • 17. Greenblatt Ratios 17 Cap IQ 0.2351x 0.0945x 0.2344x 0.2317x 0.0000x 0.0500x 0.1000x 0.1500x 0.2000x 0.2500x SIX SEAS MERL 4661 EBIT / Tangible Assets 0.0467x 0.0524x 0.0583x 0.0501x 0.0000x 0.0100x 0.0200x 0.0300x 0.0400x 0.0500x 0.0600x 0.0700x SIX SEAS MERL 4661 EBIT / EV 0.2818x 0.1469x 0.2927x 0.2818x 0.0000x 0.0500x 0.1000x 0.1500x 0.2000x 0.2500x 0.3000x 0.3500x SIX SEAS MERL 4661 Sum of Ratios
  • 18. Comparable Company Analysis 18 • We used P/E, P/Forward EPS, and P/Sales • Median multiples were selected and applied against SIX’s financial data • We equally weighted each of these multiples for a valuation of $40.35 Bloomberg; Cap IQ Price / LTM FY1 Company Name Ticker EPS EPS Sales SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. NYSE:SEAS 44.2x 18.9x 1.1x Cedar Fair, L.P. NYSE:FUN 25.6x 15.8x 2.5x Merlin Entertainments plc LSE:MERL 26.4x 21.3x 3.4x Oriental Land Co., Ltd. TSE:4661 31.4x 31.6x 5.0x Six Flags Entertainment Corporation NYSE:SIX 42.1x 27.9x 4.1x Minimum 25.6x 15.8x 1.1x Mean 31.9x 21.9x 3.0x Median 28.9x 20.1x 2.9x Maximum 44.2x 31.6x 5.0x Comparable Companies Valuation SIX Data 1.3 1.9 13.1 Selected Multiple 31.9x 21.9x 3.0x Price per Share 40.20$ 41.61$ 39.24$ Average Price 40.35$
  • 19. Revenue Projection 19 (in thousands except per capita) 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Theme Park Revenue Calculation Attendance 26,115 26,601 27,096 27,600 28,113 28,637 Admissions 26.45 27.96 29.55 31.24 33.02 34.90 Non-Admissions 18.45 18.96 19.49 20.03 20.58 21.15 Guest Revenue - Admissions 690,666 743,643 800,684 862,099 928,226 999,425 Guest Revenue - Non-Admissions 481,766 504,340 527,972 552,711 578,609 605,721 Guest Revenue - Total 1,172,432 1,247,983 1,328,655 1,414,810 1,506,835 1,605,146 Guest Revenue - Actual 1,172,435 1,247,989 1,328,664 1,414,822 1,506,851 1,605,165 Growth Rate - Admissions 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% Growth Rate - Non-Admissions 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% Forecast (in thousands except per capita) 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Theme park admissions 690,744 743,727 800,774 862,197 928,331 999,538 Growth Rate 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% 7.67% Theme park food, merchandise and other 481,691 504,262 527,890 552,625 578,520 605,627 Growth Rate 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% 4.69% Forecast 2014 & 2013 10-K
  • 20. WACC Calculation 20 Bloomberg Risk Free Rate 2.29% Market Risk Premium 5.92% Beta (5-year) 0.905 CAPMCost of Equity 7.644% Realized Return for past 2years 25.96% Adjusted Cost of Equity 11.31% CAPM Current Share Price $53.06 Average Shares Outstanding 91,837 Market Value of Equity 4,872,883$ Market Value of Debt 1,515,382 Equity Weight 76.28% Debt Weight 23.72% Cost of Equity 11.31% Cost of Debt 4.69% Tax Rate 32.49% WACC 9.38% Weighted Average Cost of Capital • Risk Free Rate: US 10-Year Treasury Note • Adjusted Cost of Equity: 80% of CAPM Cost of Equity + 20% of Realized Return for past 2 years • Cost of Debt: From the projected debt schedule
  • 21. Discounted Cash Flow 21 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E EBIT 310,993 339,949 379,607 423,844 471,185 523,590 Less: Taxes (66,403) (85,593) (99,052) (113,348) (128,646) (145,575) Add: Depreciation &Amortization 168,999 148,045 128,075 108,107 105,107 119,687 125,334 131,271 137,467 144,090 changes in accounts receivable (1,794) 11,062 22,086 7,214 (6,503) 3,446 3,793 4,147 4,304 4,681 Changes in inventories (2,569) 1,307 (108) (1,073) 346 1,412 1,555 1,700 1,764 1,919 Changes in accounts payable (9,519) (243) 884 (5,149) 317 1,293 1,423 1,556 1,615 1,757 Less: Capital Expenditure 91,680 99,989 101,853 108,660 112,526 116,474 120,561 124,792 129,171 133,703 Free Cash Flow 243,645$ 254,003$ 281,403$ 312,685$ 346,382$ 383,559$ Discount Factor 9.38% PV of Free Cash Flow 238,247 227,085 230,016 233,677 236,671 239,607 Sum of PV of FCF 1,405,303$ ForecastHistorical Long-Term Growth Rate 3.50% Gordon Growth Free Cash Flow 6,756,510 Present Value 4,220,761 Terminal Growth Enterprise Value 5,626,064 Less: Net Debt (1,304,554) Equity Value 4,321,510 Shares Outstanding 91,837 Price Per Share 47.06$ Value Per Share 47.06$ 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 8.38% 48.86$ 53.56$ 59.22$ 66.17$ 74.92$ 8.88% 44.06$ 47.95$ 52.55$ 58.11$ 64.92$ 9.38% 39.99$ 43.25$ 47.06$ 51.57$ 57.02$ 9.88% 36.50$ 39.26$ 42.45$ 46.19$ 50.62$ 10.38% 33.47$ 35.83$ 38.54$ 41.67$ 45.34$ Terminal Growth 2014 & 2013 10-K
  • 22. Recommendation 22 Positives: Dividend Yield is 4.42% & New Market Growth; Negatives: High and Volatile PE Ratio We recommend adding Six Flags to the Watch List Current Stock Price Comparable Value DCF Valuation $52.55 $40.35 $47.06