Why do some climate policies work in one country but fail in another? WRI’s experts explain the political economy of climate action: factors that shape behavior, power dynamics in decision-making and more.
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Winners and Losers in a Warming World
1. Photo Source: Justice & Witness Ministries, UCC/Flickr
WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A
WARMING WORLD
The Political Economy of Climate Action
2. MARK ROBINSON ELIZA NORTHROP
Global Director, Governance, World
Resources Institute
Associate II, International Climate
Initiative, World Resources Institute
4. ACHIEVING THE PARIS AGREEMENT
Photo Source: Unclimatechange Flickr
The Paris Agreement aims to:
• Limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees and pursue efforts to
limit to increase to 1.5 degrees
• Increase ability to adapt to climate change impacts
• Make finance flows consistent with these pathways
5. Trust, cooperation and information
sharing within and outside of
government
Credible domestic progress to guide
implementation and increase ambition
over time
Supportive political environment and
strong institutional capacity
6. DEFINITION OF CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
• The rules, norms and relationships that determine how
decisions are made and whose interests are represented
• How power and authority are distributed, controlled and
exercised
• How resources are accessed, allocated, used and
exchanged
• How conflicts are mitigated or resolved
…to enable and sustain the level of action required to achieve
the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.
7. A STRONG FOUNDATION FOR SUSTAINED ACTION
Photo Source: U.S. Department of Energy Flickr
As of 2017, 1,200 climate laws have been passed, establishing new
targets and institutional mandates. But ambition levels, resources
allocated towards implementation and effectiveness of
accountability mechanisms will depend on underlying political
economy dynamics.
8. CLIMATE ACTION IS POLITICAL
Photo Source: Beyond Coal & Gas Image Library/ Flickr
• Motivated interest groups and fragmented coalitions
• Mismatched incentives
• Dominant narratives on climate risk and response
• Importance of institutional histories and relationships
9. WHEN DO POLITICAL OPPORTUNITIES EMERGE?
Photo Source: SC National Guard/Flickr
• Disruptive events, like extreme
weather or energy shortages
• Elections
• International or regional pressures
• New coalitions
• Access to new financial streams
• Reduced cost of clean technologies
10. NOT JUST MITIGATION – ADAPTATION, TOO
Photo Source: NPS Climate Change Response/Flickr
Building resilience calls for addressing disparities
in access to resources, opportunities and decision-
making power. There is also a heightened emphasis on
local politics and institutions.
11. CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN BANGLADESH
Photo Source: Development Planning Unit University College London/Flickr
Political relationships, institutional priorities and
economic incentives gave coastal infrastructure
projects the upper hand over community-based
adaptation strategies.
12. POLITICAL CLIMATE ACTION SUPPORT IN KENYA
Photo Source: Wajahat Mahmood/Flickr
Makueni and Wajir counties have enacted laws
to establish climate change funds.
• Wajir is investing 2% of its budget and has
direct access to international finance.
• Direct response to drought and severe
weather events
• Funds allocated to community-driven
resilience initiatives
13. A POLITICAL ECONOMY APPROACH
Approach Outcome
Understanding how institutional
relationships contribute to climate
policy failures
New mandates, incentives and policies
that help support implementation of
ambitious climate action
Analyzing the benefits and political
visibility of climate policies
Policies that shore up broad-based
public support for climate action by
conveying visible benefits
Strengthening the political influence of
sub-national and non-state actors
Investments in building more diverse
and capable climate action coalitions
Assessing political insulation of
oversight mechanisms and incentives
to hold policymakers to account
Stronger independent oversight
mechanisms to support long-term
climate goals
14. NEXT STEP: CLIMATE GOVERNANCE DIAGNOSTIC
Photo Source: World Bank/Flickr
Purpose | Pinpoint potential governance barriers and identify
relevant entry points to drive solutions for transformative
climate action
Process | Collaborate with national experts across sectors to
inform and legitimize results
Outcome | Evidence-based strategy to improve climate
governance, including incentive structures, capacity building
and influence pathways
15. Photo Source: Presidencia de la Republica MARCH 2018
ACHIEVING MEXICO'S
CLIMATE GOALS
An Eight Point Action Plan
16. APPROACH AND ANALYSIS
Photo Source: BurnOsoleil/Flickr
• How can Mexico achieve its targets and
work toward the Paris Agreement goals?
• Identify and evaluate key energy and
climate policy actions
Initial involvement with Mexican
government
56 planned and potential actions
After stakeholder consultation,
19/21 policies were modeled
17. MEXICO’S EIGHT POINT ACTION PLAN
I Improve fuel efficiency and promote the
switch to clean fuels in industrial activities
Strengthen actions to reduce emissions of
non-CO2 gases
Reduce distortions in the economy through
introducing carbon pricing and phasing out
fossil fuel subsidies
Increase capacity and efficiency in the
electricity sector (transmission and
distribution)
Promote synergies with adaptation
objectives (deforestation and reforestation)
and other sectoral actions (agriculture)
Prompt the transition to clean and
well-designed transport options
Increase energy efficiency in commercial
and residential buildings
Develop a comprehensive, long-term
strategy for achieving net zero GHG
emissions in line with the long-term goals in
the Paris Agreement
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
18. CONCLUSIONS
Photo Source: Ted McGrath/Flickr
• Potential actions for attaining Mexico’s
NDC must be politically feasible.
• Actions should improve competitiveness
and population’s health and welfare.
• Success will need coordinated
institutional efforts as well as
collaboration across private and social
sectors.
19. Photo Source: Justice & Witness Ministries, UCC/Flickr
WINNERS AND LOSERS IN A
WARMING WORLD
The Political Economy of Climate Action
Notes:
International/regional peer influence, elections, new development plans, reorganization of agencies
Events that disrupt existing narrative—extreme weather, energy shortages, price shocks or public health disasters
New coalitions emerge--civil society, nascent clean energy industries, pro-climate government actors (Example: South Africa)
Access to new finance streams (also presents risks)
Reduced cost of clean technologies, evidence of effective deployment
Credible threat of accountability mechanisms/public oversight
Photo Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/scguard/36789661622/in/faves-26107309@N05/
Notes:
Building resilience calls for addressing disparities in access to resources, opportunities, and decision-making power
Adaptation choices often influenced by past choices as well as self-interested actors (e.g. infrastructural projects for patrimony
Effectiveness of mainstreaming may depend on interests and incentives as well as coercive power of new rules
Photo Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/npsclimatechange/14227656790/in/faves-26107309@N05/
Notes:
"In Bangladesh stakeholders who championed social innovation never gained a firm foothold. Even though these champions came from a wide range of departments and institutions, they were not well linked through existing relationships and resources, and the lack of a coalition diluted their influence. Similarly, the widely scattered scepticism about whether PPCR could truly bring about a transformation in Bangladesh had little effect on decision making"
In both Bangladesh and Nepal, PPCR has been successful in aligning within national priorities, plans and strategies. However, in Bangladesh PPCR has been less effective in broader coordination and inclusion of other ministries and departments while implementing projects. Stakeholder involvement has been limited to receiving information rather than contributing to consultation on decision making. Nepal on the other hand has had a systematic participation model to assess adaptive capacity at different scales. In practice, stakeholders have different storylines around the extent to which PPCR demonstrates country ownership. In Bangladesh the dominant narrative is that having decision making powers in the hand of lead ministry/ies represents country ownership, irrespective of wider stakeholder representation.
Competing narratives on adaptation response: "Hard" (infrastructure) vs. "Soft" social innovation, inclusiveness
Infrastructure narrative won out with more cohesive coalition
Implementing agencies resisted change, followed previous path of investment decisions
Photo Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/dpu-ucl/6835892796/