Flood experts introduced two updated tools that help fill in the critical information gap between climate change and flooding. Learn more: https://www.wri.org/events/2020/04/aqueduct-floods-launch-future-flooding

1. THE FUTURE OF FLOODING:
EXPLORE RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

2. IOM 2015
SPEAKER BIOS
André Haspels
Ambassadorof the Kingdom of the
Netherlands to the United States, Embassy
of the Kingdom of the Netherlands
AndréHaspels grew up in Uithoorn in theprovince
of Noord-Holland. His father was a flower trader
whoimported flowers from all over theword,
including ferns from Florida.Haspels studied
politics at theVrije Universiteit of Amsterdam.In
1 987,hejoined the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
where he served in many capacities. In 1997, he
became head of the PoliticalDepartment at the
embassy in SouthAfrica (Pretoria),wherewas
involved in thecooperation between thetwo
nations,among others in the setupof the South
African Truth andReconciliation Commission.
Willem Ligtvoet
Programme Manager, Water, Climate &
Adaptation, PBL
As Programmemanager at PBLNetherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency,WillemLigtvoet is
responsiblefor strategicand operationalresearch
programming on water,spatialdevelopment,climate
change and adaptation.He workson strengtheningthe
integrated globalassessment capacity at the nexus between
water, food andenergy andclimateand urbanisation.
Willem haslednationaland globalPBLassessmentson
water and climate adaptation,coordinatingthe
contributions by many other knowledgeinstitutes.Hewas
the initiator of theglobalflood riskmodelGLOFRIS which
ispresently integrated in Aqueduct Floods.
Philip Ward
Head of the Global Water and Climate Risk section
of the the Departmentof Waterand Climate Risk,
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije
UniversiteitAmsterdam
Prof. Philip Ward isHead of the GlobalWater and
ClimateRisk section of thetheDepartment of Water and
ClimateRisk.Since2012 he hasbeen a guest researcher at
Deltares, and in 2013-2014 he wasa visiting scientist at
Columbia University in New York.Hiscurrent research
focuseson flood and drought riskassessment at the global
and continentalscale.
Samantha Kuzma
GIS Associate, WaterProgram, WRI
Samantha researches,develops,and applieswater-
relateddata for a diverse set of projects.She is part of
the Water,Peace,andSecurity project,which aimsto
enabletimely andeffectiveresponsestowater-related
challenges in hopes of mitigating conflict.Besides
WPS, Sam alsoworks on theAqueduct Project.Her
primary responsibility is toco-managetheupdateof
Aqueduct Floods,a tool designedtoidentify coastal
and riverine flood risks and analyze the costsand
benefits of investing in flood protection.

3. SAMANTHA KUZMA, GIS ASSOCIATE, WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE
INTRODUCING
AQUEDUCT FLOODS
Image: Texas Military Department

4. THE ENORMITY OF FLOODING IMPACT
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

5. FLOOD RISKS IN THE FUTURE
Climate
change
Socioeconomic
factors
Land
Subsidence
Images:
1. Stuart Rankin
2. Jbdodane
3. USGS

6. FLOOD RISKS IN THE FUTURE
Climate
change
Socioeconomic
factors
Land
Subsidence
Images:
1. Stuart Rankin
2. Jbdodane
3. USGS

7. FLOOD RISKS IN THE FUTURE
Climate
change
Socioeconomic
factors
Land
Subsidence
Images:
1. Stuart Rankin
2. Jbdodane
3. USGS

8. FLOOD RISKS IN THE FUTURE
Climate
change
Socioeconomic
factors
Land
Subsidence
Images:
1. Stuart Rankin
2. Jbdodane
3. USGS

9. THE MISSING PIECE

10. AQUEDUCT FLOODS

11. AQUEDUCT FLOODS FEATURES
• Riverine and coastal flood risk
– Current and future
– climate change & socioeconomic growth
– sea level rise & subsidence
• Existing flood protection levels per state
• Costs & benefits of adapting to riverine flood
risk

12. AQUEDUCT FLOODS DEMO
Flood
protection?
Analyst at a development bank

13. TANZANIA FLOODING IN THE NEWS

23. AQUEDUCT FLOODS DEMO
Invest!
Analyst at a development bank

24. PROF. PHILIP WARD (INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, VU UNIVERSITY AMSTERDAM)
UNDER THE HOOD
Data and methods for global flood analysis
Image: US Department of Agriculture

25. SETUP
1. Flood risk framework
2. Flood risk assessment: methods
3. Costs and benefits of levees: methods

26. FLOOD RISK
FRAMEWORK
The elements
(e.g., buildings, humans,
economic values)
present in affected areas
EXPOSUREHAZARD VULNERABILTY
The threatening event
(including its probability
and geographical extent)
The resistance or lack of
resistance of the
exposed elements to the
hazard
RISK

27. FLOOD RISK
FRAMEWORK
The elements
(e.g., buildings, humans,
economic values)
present in affected areas
EXPOSUREHAZARD VULNERABILTY
The threatening event
(including its probability
and geographical extent)
The resistance or lack of
resistance of the
exposed elements to the
hazard
RISK

28. FLOOD RISK
FRAMEWORK
The elements
(e.g., buildings, humans,
economic values)
present in affected areas
EXPOSUREHAZARD VULNERABILTY
The threatening event
(including its probability
and geographical extent)
The resistance or lack of
resistance of the
exposed elements to the
hazard
RISK

29. FLOOD RISK
FRAMEWORK
The elements
(e.g., buildings, humans,
economic values)
present in affected areas
EXPOSUREHAZARD VULNERABILTY
The threatening event
(including its probability
and geographical extent)
The resistance or lack of
resistance of the
exposed elements to the
hazard
RISK

30. © Henk de Boer
www.henkdeboer.nl

31. Damage
Exceedance Probability
CURRENT FLOOD RISK: GLOFRIS
$ / affected people / affected GDPImpacts per return period
STEP 1:
STEP 2: Expected AnnualImpacts
(e.g. EAD)
per year
See:
• Ward et al., 2013
• Winsemius et al., 2013
VULNERABILITY
Flood depth-damage function
HAZARD
100 year flood depth
EXPOSURE
Population density

32. RIVERINE HAZARD
HAZARD
100 year flood depth
Daily meteorological
data (precip & temp)
Current: EU-WATCH
Future: 5 GCMs, 4 RCPs
Global hydrological
model
(PCR-GLOBWB-dynRout)
Riverflow & overbank flow
GLOFRIS inundation module
Flood hazard maps
See:
• Sutanudjaja et al., 2018
• Ward et al., 2013
• Winsemius et al., 2013, 2016

33. COASTAL HAZARD
See:
• Muis et al., 2016
• Tiggeloven et al., 2020
Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM)Dataset enhanced with tropical cyclones (IBTrACS)
HAZARD
100 year flood depth

34. FLOOD HAZARD: SUBSIDENCE
See:
• Erkens et al., 2015

35. EXPOSURE SSP1, SSP2, SSP3: projections until 2100
Future population & GDP: 2UP model (PBL; Huijstee et al., 2018)
Future land use: Jongman et al. (2015)

36. 1950

37. 1960

38. 1970

39. 1980

40. 1990

41. 2000

42. 2010

43. 2020

44. 2030

45. 2040

46. 2050

47. 2050
By 2050:
70% of the population live in cities
=
more than 6 billion people

48. VULNERABILITY: ECONOMIC DAMAGE
• Based on JRC Global Functions
See:
• Huizinga et al., 2017

49. FLOOD PROTECTION STANDARDS
See:
• Scussolini et al., 2016
FLOPROS:
Only global
database of
protection
standards

50. COSTS AND BENEFITS OF LEVEES
height
+ maintenance costs!
Construction Costs
=
required levee height
x
required levee lengths
x
unit costs
See:
• Di Baldassarre et al., 2018

51. • Developing national
Flood Risk Management
implementation Plan for
Nigeria
• To develop resilience to
floods, following
recommendations from
PDNA after 2012 floods
Benefits
=
economic risk ($) with no adaptation
-
economic risk ($) with adaptation
COSTS AND BENEFITS OF LEVEES: BENEFITS

52. COSTS AND BENEFITS OF LEVEES: EXAMPLE
Benefit:cost ratio
See:
• Ward et al., 2017

53. LIMITATIONS
• No analysis of compound riverine and
coastal flooding
• Not suitable for point-location analysis
• Adaptation only consider through levees

54. CITATIONS
• Di Baldassarre, G. et al., 2018. HESS, doi:10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018
• Erkens et al., 2015. Proceedings of the IAHS, doi:10.5194/piahs-372-189-2015
• Huijstee et al., 2018. Towards and urban preview. PBL, The Netherlands
• Huizinga et al., 2017. Global flood depth-damage functions. European Union
• Jongman et al., 2015. PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.1414439112
• Muis et al., 2016. Nature Communications, doi:10.1038/ncomms11969
• Scussolini et al., 2016. NHESS, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016
• Sutanudjaja et al., 2018. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018
• Tiggeloven et al., 2020. NHESS, doi:10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020
• Ward et al., 2013. Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019
• Ward et al., 2017. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3350
• Winsemius et al., 2013. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013
• Winsemius et al., 2016. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2893

55. WILLEM LIGTVOET , ARNO BOUWMAN, PHILIP WARD, HESSEL WINSEMIUS , RENS VAN BEEK
AQUEDUCT FLOOD RISKS
IN GLOBAL ASSESSMENTS
Examples from Future Water Challenges

56. EXAMPLE IN GLOBAL ASSESSMENT 6 main themes

57. Annualeconomic
damage in
billion USD
Annualexposed
population
in millions
2010-2050 INCREASE IN FLOOD RISKS

58. http://www.pbl.nl/future-water-challenges

59. http://www.pbl.nl/future-water-challenges

60. BREAKDOWN OF COASTAL FLOOD RISK BANGLADESH

61. PHASE II: EXPLORING FUTURE PATHWAYS
What
= measures
Costs
$$
Effect
Δ flood risks
Contributions
to SDGsBending the trend
Water/climate
impacts
Business-as-usual
Low ambition
Moderate ambition
High ambition
Low ambition

62. EXAMPLES OF PATHWAYS
Effect of additional protection
of cities
annual exposed
population
Cities: hotspots of
population,economic assets
and investments

63. NEW MODELLING: NATURE BASED SOLUTIONS
• In Aqueduct flood risks for protection
against flooding only technical measures
are included (levees)
• VU/PBL/Deltares support a PhD research
on Nature Based Solutions in GLOFRIS
• Ready by 2023/24

64. THANK YOU!
http://www.pbl.nl/future-water-challenges