Presented by David Wood The smartphone industry has seen both remarkable successes and remarkable failures over the last two decades. Developments have frequently confounded the predictions of apparent expert observers. What does this rich history have to teach futurists, technology enthusiasts, and activists for other forms of technology adoption and social improvement?

1. Smartphones for futurists
What Smartphones Teach Us About
the Radical Future of Technology,
Business, & Society
Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futurists
David Wood
@dw2

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Agriculture
Education
Healthcare
Retail
Media
Navigation
What’s next?
What lay behind this
remarkable success story?
What lessons might
be applied more broadly?
http://smartphonesandbeyond.com/

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20 tech breakthrough areas by 2025?
Big Data and the
Internet of Things:
many fewer secrets
Brain scanning:
consciousness &
creativity decoded
Mind enhancing drugs
(or hardware
stimulation, e.g. tDCS)
Cryptocurrencies:
decentralised
consensus systems
Nanomaterials
with super-strength &
resilience
3D fabrication,
with Atomically
Precise Manufacturing
Ubiquitous solar
energy: major
reduction of oil usage
Wearable computers,
Augmented Reality,
remote virtual avatars
Rejuvenation biotech:
Stem cell therapies,
synthetic organs
Cognitive computing
in healthcare: Most
doctors redeployed
Automated robot
workers:
nurses, soldiers…
Driverless cars,
drones: much safer,
greener transport
Credible cryonics:
mass market
suspensions
Virtual companions
more compelling than
real ones
Geoengineering
E.g. massive carbon
removal
Quantum computing:
Moore’s Law
-> Rose’s Law
Rational management
of decisions
and resources
Synthetic meat:
abolition of animal
suffering
Synthetic biology:
reprogramming DNA,
new life forms
Sanitation & nutrition:
Clean water, cities,
vaccinations…
http://anticipating2025.com/book/

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First Nokia “mobile phone”
Nokia Mobira Senator (1982)
Weighed about 21 pounds
Designed for use in or near cars
1980s McKinsey forecast for AT&T
0.9 million mobile US subscribers by 2000
Actual figure: 109 million
Worldwide 1 billion by 2002, 2B by 2005, 7B by 2012...
Hard to predict the effects of sustained tech growth!
Devices increasingly numerous, lighter, and more useful
http://www.talktalk.co.uk/mobile/galleries/view/mobile/retro/browse/1
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202283_2.html
Predictions of mobile phones
Positive
feedback
cycle
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communicator_(Star_Trek)
23rd century

5. Vision: 1998
7 years to profitability
8 years to 100M devices
+18 months to 200M devices
+36 months to 500M devices
Positive
feedback
cycle

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What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical
Future of Technology, Business, & Society
1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation
– Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly

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The (slow) emergence of tablets
http://joyreactor.com/post/300138
Bill Gates introduces Tablet PC.
No one cares.
Steve Jobs introduces the iPad.
The world pisses itself like an
excited dog.
Steve Ballmer introduces Surface.
People accuse Microsoft of
stealing the idea from Apple.

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27 January, 2010
“8 Things That Suck About the iPad”
http://gizmodo.com/5458382/8-things-that-suck-about-the-ipad
1. Big, Ugly Bezel
2. No Multitasking
3. No Cameras
4. Touch Keyboard
5. No HDMI Out
6. The Name “iPad”
7. No Flash
8. Adapters, Adapters, Adapters
(“…You need an adapter for USB for god’s sake”)
9. It’s Not Widescreen
10. Doesn’t Support T-Mobile 3G
(“it uses microSIMs that literally no one else uses”)
11. A Closed App Ecosystem.
http://dw2blog.com/2010/01/28/the-ipad-more-for-less/
The (slow) emergence of tablets
“iFail”
“Not game-changing
like the iPhone was”
– Robert Scoble

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipad#Model_comparison
http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/10/02/rare-full-recording-of-1983-steve-jobs-speech-reveals-
apple-had-been-working-on-ipad-for-27-years/
iPad roadmap:
Incremental delivery towards a vision
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013
iPad iPad 2 iPad 3rd gen iPad 4th gen iPad Air
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
“Apple’s strategy is really simple. What we want to do is we want to put an
incredibly great computer in a book that you can carry around with you
and learn how to use in 20 minutes…
“And we really want to do it with a radio link in it so you don’t have to
hook up to anything and you’re in communication with all of these larger
databases and other computers.”
Steve Jobs,
1983,
International
Design
Conference,
Aspen

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23 October, 2012
“Apple sold their 100 millionth
iPad two weeks ago”
“We sold more iPads in the June
quarter than any PC maker sold of
their entire line-up”
Market-cap > $620 billion
>4 years to sell 100M iPhones
<3 years to sell 100M iPads
www.engadget.com/2012/10/23/apple-ipad-mini-liveblog/
www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2012/08/21/apple-now-most-valuable-company-in-history/
The (slow) emergence of tablets
Apple Now Most Valuable Company in History

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20 opportunities for enormous value?
Big Data and the
Internet of Things:
many fewer secrets
Brain scanning:
consciousness &
creativity decoded
Mind enhancing drugs
(or hardware
stimulation, e.g. tDCS)
Cryptocurrencies:
decentralised
consensus systems
Nanomaterials
with super-strength &
resilience
3D fabrication,
with Atomically
Precise Manufacturing
Ubiquitous solar
energy: major
reduction of oil usage
Wearable computers,
Augmented Reality,
remote virtual avatars
Rejuvenation biotech:
Stem cell therapies,
synthetic organs
Cognitive computing
in healthcare: Most
doctors redeployed
Automated robot
workers:
nurses, soldiers…
Driverless cars,
drones: much safer,
greener transport
Credible cryonics:
mass market
suspensions
Virtual companions
more compelling than
real ones
Geoengineering
E.g. massive carbon
removal
Quantum computing:
Moore’s Law
-> Rose’s Law
Rational management
of decisions
and resources
Synthetic meat:
abolition of animal
suffering
Synthetic biology:
reprogramming DNA,
new life forms
Sanitation & nutrition:
Clean water, cities,
vaccinations…
http://anticipating2025.com/book/

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Kindle books vs. physical books
www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch
E-books leapfrog
physical books at Amazon
in less than 3 years
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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Progress by combination
Smart combination of multiple tech improvements
• Cheap digital storage
• Low energy screens, pleasant to look at
• High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution
• Customisable (Linux/Android) software platform
• Huge catalog of books available to purchase
+ Innovative business model
Improvements in computers:
Performance
Applicability (digitisation)

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What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical
Future of Technology, Business, & Society
1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation
– Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly
2. Disruptive products rely on smart combination
– Smart tech, innovative business model, powerful content
– Delivering a vision incrementally (roadmaps are important!)
3. There are huge amounts of hard work setting the scene

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Drama in the last five years

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Causes of corporate stumbles
Corporate inertia
Loss of vision
Key skills missing

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Nokia’s biggest mistake (?)
But if some ultimate cause needed to be named,
Ollila says that it would be the problems that
Nokia experienced in software know-how.
The problem was recognised already in the 1990s.
There were plans to fix them, but they were not
implemented.
http://www.zdnet.com/nokia-where-it-all-went-wrong-by-the-man-who-
made-it-the-worlds-biggest-mobile-company-7000023046/
http://www.hs.fi/talous/a1381973653499
Jorma Ollila, CEO of Nokia 1992-2006, interviewed in October 2013
Large-scale software? Design? Integration? The new new thing??
Knowing-doing gap!
http://dw2blog.com/2010/09/13/accelerating-nokias-renewal/

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Not spotting the change
Phone-centric worldview
• Telephony was the most important app
• Phone manufacturers should prioritise
meeting the requests of network
operators
• Third party apps were a nice “extra”, but
didn’t make any fundamental difference
• Most innovation in smartphones came
from within the mobile industry, rather
than from Silicon Valley
• The US market was a laggard in the
adoption of smartphone technology; it
was better to invest in Japan, China, or
even India, than in the US.
Internet-centric worldview
• The Internet (and particularly the web
browser) was now the most important
application
• Phone manufacturers should prioritise
meeting the requests of Silicon Valley
entrepreneurs
• Third party apps – and, more generally,
openness to external innovators – could
bring fundamental new value
• The US market would dramatically
influence the way new smartphone
technology was adopted around the
world.
Not being able to act on spotting the change

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Causes of corporate stumbles
Corporate inertia
Technical debt
Loss of vision
Ecosystem failure
Key skills missing

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African proverb: Travelling
If you want to go fast, go alone;
If you want to go far, go together
Products need speed
Platforms enable long-distance travel
2014
2019
Positive
feedback
cycle

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Positive feedback cycles
Design,
Manufacturing
Computers

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Positive feedback cycles
Software tools
(debuggers,
compilers…)
Software

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Positive feedback cycles
Education
Technology

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Positive feedback cycles
Education
Technology
PeopleNetworks
=> Technology is
likely to improve,
faster and faster

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Positive feedback cycles
Developers
Technology
Platform
Consumers
Business
Partners

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Leading in a world of disruptions
• Platform leadership
A. Nurturing insight into technology trends
B. Flexible, future-proof, debt-free architecture
C. Interfaces that enable positive feedback cycles
• Market leadership
D. Business model innovation
E. Developer motivation
F. User motivation
• Execution leadership
G. Continuous integration
H. Enterprise-scale agility
I. Lean processes (focus)

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Building a winning alliance, despite
conflicts of interest
Mobile phones
Mobile
networks
Positive
feedback
cycle

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Building a winning alliance, despite
conflicts of interest
Smartphones
Smart
networks
Developers
It helps to have an insanely great product!
It helps to have powerful allies!

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What Smartphones Teach Us About the Radical
Future of Technology, Business, & Society
1. Disruptive tech can take a long time in gestation
– Even though it may eventually seem to blossom quickly
2. Disruptive products rely on smart combination
– Smart tech, innovative business model, powerful content
– Delivering a vision incrementally (roadmaps are important!)
3. There are huge amounts of hard work setting the scene
– Platform skills, Marketing skills, Execution skills
– Patient investors; the right top management (no knowing-doing gap)
4. Don’t neglect culture engineering
– User expectations, successful memes, DXE, ‘political’ alliances…

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Obstacles to new technologies!
1. Underlying core technology may be too hard
 E.g. nuclear fusion, links between genetics & disease, battery lifetime…
2. Applications need to be designed and developed
 Real benefits; Acceptable usability; Acceptable price: Cross the chasm
3. Network infrastructure & business environment may resist change
 E.g. car battery charging stations, application stores: “the value chain”
4. Legal framework may oppose change
 E.g. government legislation, biased subsidies
5. Prevailing public mindsets may resist new technology
 E.g. “Soul-less little devil”, “Decay is natural”, “Don’t play God”

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http://smartphonesandbeyond.com/
For more info
Available
summer
2014