World Circular Economy Forum 2018 Japan The urgency and challenge of 1 5 degree lifestyles anu manty and lewis akenji wcef2018

1. • Raising awareness?
• Eco-labels?
• Changing light bulbs?
• Recycling?

2. The shape of tomorrow
Observations from emerging trends and foresight studies

3. To be or not
to be?
To have or
not to
have?
To be
or
to have?
What is the question again?

4. Flattening and
merging trends
• Between consumption and
production
• Between social trends and
individualization
• Ownership structure
• Merging of online and offline living
• Merging of work and private life
• Information use and knowledge
• Traditional services and digital

5. More
constraints
interlinked pressures
from environment
and resources
Speed of changes in
technology, employment,
economic paradigm,
education
Widening
gaps in
inequality,
polarization,
demographic
changes
Anticipated Changes in Society
by 2050
Source: Source: IGES based on the Global
Foresight Survey of Potential Changes in Society

6. Name Goal
1.5S 2 °C with CCS
2S 2 °C with CCS
1.5D
1.5 °C without or
with less CCS
Current: 4.5-5 ton/cap/year
GHG from household
consumption
3 (2.5-3.2) ton by 2030
2 (1.4-2.2) ton by 2040
1 (0.7-1.5) ton by 2050
Household footprint
share is assumed as
72%.
Carbon footprint targets per capita for 2° and 1.5° goals
Source:IGES,AaltoUniversity,D-matonthebasisofRockströmetal.2017,Rogeljet
al.2011,Rangeretal.2012,vanVuurenetal.2018,UnitedNations2017,Hertwich&

7. 2030 Target
3 ton/cap/yr
2050 Target
1 ton/cap/yr
10.4t
7.6t
4.2t
2.8t
2.0t-89%
-73%
-86%
-63%
-74%
-32%
-61%
-45%
Source: IGES, Aalto University, D-ma
Footprint gap
Current Per-Capita Lifestyles Carbon Footprint: 2030 and 2050 Targets

8. Implications and
reflections
• The small-action trap
• Techno optimism
• Consumer scapegoatism
• We still need to meet basic
needs of ~30% global
population, and
accommodate ~30%
increase in middleclass!
• The magnitude and urgency
of transition is understated
• Immense capacity building
would be needed to
accommodate the degree of
transformation, forced or
intentional

9. Towards solutions
Understanding what shapes consumption and lifestyles

10. People do not consume with the
intention to harm the environment;
environmental impact is an
unintended consequence
of the pursuit of well-being!
People consume…
• to meet essential needs
• to meet social expectations
• to satisfy personal desires
• because they are railroaded and urged to

11. Do
Nothing MODAL SHIFT
to
low-carbon mode
IMPROVE
efficiency of
existing options
REDUCE
large
amounts

12. If 30% of the Finns make changes
in their diets …
Vegan diet Food loss reduction
Reduction of sweets
and alcohol
MODAL SHIFT
to low-carbon mode
IMPROVE
efficiency
REDUCE
large amounts
Source:IGES,AaltoUniversity,D-mat

13. If 30% of the Japanese make changes
in their ways of living …
Renewable electricity Insulation of houses Saving of hot water
MODAL SHIFT
to low-carbon mode
IMPROVE
efficiency
Source:IGES,AaltoUniversity,D-mat

14. If 30% of Japanese and Finns change the
way they move …
TeleworkingCar-free shopping
and leisure
MODAL SHIFT
to low-carbon mode
Electric vehicle
IMPROVE
efficiency
Source:IGES,AaltoUniversity,D-mat

15. Akenji & Chen (2016) A framework for shaping sustainable lifestyles: determinants and strategies
Determinants
of Sustainable
Lifestyles
The Attitude-Facilitators-Infrastructure (AFI) Framework

19. 3 171 650 766
kgCO2e
-50%
1 585 825 383
kgCO2e