2010 Cow Calf Outlook
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2010 Cow Calf Outlook
- 1. Brenda L. Boetel Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist University of Wisconsin-River Falls
- 6. Who Is Losing the Cows?
- 7. Annual Calf Crop Projections
- 10. Index Tracks Demand Changes But it does not address why demand shifts occurred
- 16. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
- 27. Important to be a High Return Producer 2009 Cow-Calf Profits
- 28. Profitability Differences Years Top 1/3 Total Return $ per head Bottom 1/3 Total Return $ per head 1980-2000 $13.5 Bil $64 -$12.6 Bil -$55 2000-2007 $13.7 Bil $172 $4.3 Bil $54 2003-2007 $9.9 Bil $201 $4.1 Bil $82 1980-2007 $25.8 bil $92 -$8.5 Bil -$27
- 33. 40% of the U.S. Beef Cow Herd Resided in Severe Drought Areas in 2009
- 38. Where Are Herds Expanding
- 45. Market Timing Highs and Lows A $10 spread on a 1400 lbs cow is $140 Marketing of Cows Represents 15-20% of Income in Cow-Calf Operation
Hinweis der Redaktion
- As slowdown in the global economy eases, the pruchasing power of foreign buyers should recover and be supportive to meat exports With lower US dollar though imports such as oil cost more. The increase in dollar limited imports of feeder and slaughter animals from Canada. (currently US dollar about 16% lower than last year)
- Pork production is up 1% or so this year as heavier hogs have compensated for larger decline in slaughter numbers. Slaughter is down
- The international market drives the byproduct value. Last summer, high oil and feedstuff prices drove byproduct values to record highs, however as the economy collapsed so did the prices for those items. Byproduct values did improve this summer in response to tighter cattle supplies and gains in the domestic and global economies; however, those gains were short li Last year, as reported by USDA-AMS, the steer byproduct value skyrocketed to record highs reaching a near $12.00 per cwt. on a live steer basis in July 2008. Since then the byproduct value has generally declined, falling to a monthly low of $5.90 per cwt. in March of this year. During the second and third quarters, the byproduct value modestly strengthened averaging over $9.00 per cwt. in August and September. However, the byproduct value was still 22 percent or $2.00 to $3.00 per cwt. lower than the respective months last year. During the first nine months of 2009, the byproduct value averaged slightly over $7.19 per cwt., about $4.00 less than in 2008. In October, the byproduct value has continued to slip, falling to $8.00 per cwt. by mid-October vs. over $10.00 per cwt. for the corresponding week in 2008, with the monthly average estimated to be in the low $8.00 per cwt. range.ved as byproduct values have softened recently.
- Supplies are at or near highs Price gains will be easier to achieve as supplies decrease
- Spread will not widen to typical $10 - $12 range as the supply is too great. Slaughter weights typically decline through the end of the year and slaughter numbers also decline as the year progresses.