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Mesoscale modelling of icing climate:
         Sensitivity to model and model setup
Stefan Söderberg(1), Magnus Baltscheffsky(1), Hans Bergström(2), Petra
            Thorsson(2), Per Undén(3), Esbjörn Olsson(3)
         (1) WeatherTech   Scandinavia AB, (2) Uppsala University, (3) SMHI




                                           WeatherTech


                                                               Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Vindforsk V-313, Wind power in cold climates
    - develop methods for estimating the icing climate and
      production losses due to icing.
 Tools:
    - Observations
        wind speed, temperature, ice load, wind farm data
    - Ice load model
         ISO 12494:2001 – Atmospheric icing on structures
    - Mesoscale models:
        WRF, COAMPS® (US Navy), AROME (e.g., SMHI),
       different forcings, microphysics, and PBL schemes




                                                    Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech           Ice measuring devices

 Observations
                                                    Holoptics
 11 sites, 3 winter                                  (optical
 seasons:                                            sensor)
 telecommunication
 masts, met towers,
 and wind turbines.

                                                   Ice Monitor
                                                    (load cell)




                                      Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Ice accretion model




                       Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Numerical experiment setup
 Initial and lateral boundary conditions:       Example of model domains
      - i) NCEP Final Analysis (FNL from GFS)
         ii) ERA Interim
         iii) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

 Vertical grid configuration:
     - 11 levels in the lowest 300 m
 Horizontal grid configuration:
    - nested grids
      Outer nest: 27 x 27 km2
      3:1 nest ratio
      Innermost nest: 1 x 1 km2




                                                       Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Model results – pressure
                              Large scale
                              weather systems
                              captured in a
                              similar way in all
                              three models




                            Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Model results – temperature
                                 Differences found
                                 during cold
                                 periods and in
                                 March.

                                 Differences in
                                 temperature close
                                 to 0 oC have a
                                 strong influence
                                 on the ice load.




                               Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Model evaluation – brief summary
 -  Standard meteorological variables (wind, temperature,
    pressure) are well captured by all three models
    (AROME, COAMPS®, WRF).
 -  In the upcoming Vindforsk report statistics for all sites
    are given.




                                                   Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Why so many models?
 It is important to understand:
 -  A model is a model, not a perfect description of the real
    world. Each model has its strengths and weaknesses.
 -  A modern weather forecast model should be viewed as
    a model system.
 -  The results depend not only on choice of model but also
    on model setup.




                                                 Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Modelled ice load – 3 models




                                Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Modelled ice load – 3 models
      Number of hours with active icing, ice growth > 10 g/h
                          2010/2011       2011/2012
      AROME                 138              337
      COAMPS                290              641
      WRF                   389              604


      Not the same model that gives the largest number of
      hours with active icing over the two seasons.




                                              Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 WRF sensitivity study
         Full name                   Category       Description
 FNL     GFS Final analysis          Forcing        Final analysis of GFS operational forecast
 ERA     ERA Interim                 Forcing        Re-analysis produced by ECMWF
 NCAR    NCEP/NCAR                   Forcing        Re-analysis produced by NCEP/NCAR
 WSM3    WRF Single-Moment 3-class   Microphysics   Simple, efficient scheme with ice and snow
                                                    processes
 WSM6    WRF Single-Moment 6-class   Microphysics   A scheme with ice, snow and graupel
                                                    processes
 Morr    Morrison 2-moment           Microphysics   Prognostic mixing ratio for 6 classes and
                                                    double-moment ice, snow, rain and graupel
 MYJ     Mellor-Yamada-Janjic        PBL            Eta operational scheme. Prognostic turbulent
                                                    kinetic energy scheme with local vertical mixing
 QNSE    Quasi-Normal Scale          PBL            A TKE-prediction option that uses a new theory
         Elimination                                for stably stratified regions
 MYNN2   Mellor-Yamada Nakanishi and PBL            Predicts TKE and other second-moment terms.
         Niino Level 3




                                                                    Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 WRF sensitivity study
                             Surface           Land
         Microphysics PBL    layer   Radiation surface Cumulus Forcing
                                     RRTM+             Kain-
 FNL     Thompson    YSU     Eta-MM5 Dudhia    Noah    Fritsch FNL
 ERA     -           -       -       -         -       -       ERA
                                                               NCEP/
 NCAR    -           -       -       -         -       -       NCAR
 wsm3    WSM3        -       -       -         -       -       -
 wsm6    WSM6        -       -       -         -       -       -
 Morr    Morrison    -       -       -         -       -       -
 myj     -           MYJ
 qnse    -           QNSE
 mynn2   -           MYNN2




                                                    Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Modelled ice load – forcing
                               Number of hours with
                               active icing, ice
                               growth > 10 g/h

                                            2010/2011
                               FNL             389
                               ERA             379
                               NCAR            337




                               Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Modelled ice load – microphysics
                              Number of hours with
                              active icing, ice
                              growth > 10 g/h

                                           2010/2011
                              FNL(THO)        389
                              WSM3            211
                              WSM6            228
                              MORR            350




                              Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Modelled ice load – PBL
                           Number of hours with
                           active icing, ice
                           growth > 10 g/h

                                        2010/2011
                           FNL(YSU)        389
                           MYJ             585
                           QNSE            781
                           MYNN2           455




                           Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Modelled ice load – WRF spread




                                  Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Modelled ice load – AROME, COAMPS, WRF spread




                                Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Ice load – AROME, COAMPS, WRF spread, obs




                                Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Active icing – AROME, COAMPS, WRF spread
                                               Model/Model       Hours of active
                                               setup            icing 2010/2011
 No icing hours ( ice growth > 10 g/h)




                                         900
                                         800   AROME                  138
                                         700   COAMPS                 290
                                         600
                                               WRF FNL                389
                                         500
                                               WRF ERA                379
                                         400
                                         300   WRF NCAR               337

                                         200   WSM3                   211
                                         100   WSM6                   228
                                           0
                                               MORR                   350

                                               MYJ                    585

                                               QNSE                   781

                                               MYNN2                  455


                                                     Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
WeatherTech

 Conclusions
  -  Modelling ice load is not straight forward. The end result depend on
     which model that is used and how the model is set up.
  -  Measuring ice is not trivial. State of the art instruments are not
     accurate enough.
  => On a scientific level we cannot say which model and model setup
     that is “the best”.
  But (don’t despair!)
  -  The timing of the icing events are quite well captured.
  -  A newly developed power loss model have shown promising results
     (Magnus Baltscheffsky at 10.30 tomorrow).



                                                        Winterwind 2013 - Östersund

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Söderberg stefan

  • 1. Mesoscale modelling of icing climate: Sensitivity to model and model setup Stefan Söderberg(1), Magnus Baltscheffsky(1), Hans Bergström(2), Petra Thorsson(2), Per Undén(3), Esbjörn Olsson(3) (1) WeatherTech Scandinavia AB, (2) Uppsala University, (3) SMHI WeatherTech Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 2. WeatherTech Vindforsk V-313, Wind power in cold climates - develop methods for estimating the icing climate and production losses due to icing. Tools: - Observations wind speed, temperature, ice load, wind farm data - Ice load model ISO 12494:2001 – Atmospheric icing on structures - Mesoscale models: WRF, COAMPS® (US Navy), AROME (e.g., SMHI), different forcings, microphysics, and PBL schemes Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 3. WeatherTech Ice measuring devices Observations Holoptics 11 sites, 3 winter (optical seasons: sensor) telecommunication masts, met towers, and wind turbines. Ice Monitor (load cell) Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 4. WeatherTech Ice accretion model Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 5. WeatherTech Numerical experiment setup Initial and lateral boundary conditions: Example of model domains - i) NCEP Final Analysis (FNL from GFS) ii) ERA Interim iii) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Vertical grid configuration: - 11 levels in the lowest 300 m Horizontal grid configuration: - nested grids Outer nest: 27 x 27 km2 3:1 nest ratio Innermost nest: 1 x 1 km2 Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 6. WeatherTech Model results – pressure Large scale weather systems captured in a similar way in all three models Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 7. WeatherTech Model results – temperature Differences found during cold periods and in March. Differences in temperature close to 0 oC have a strong influence on the ice load. Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 8. WeatherTech Model evaluation – brief summary -  Standard meteorological variables (wind, temperature, pressure) are well captured by all three models (AROME, COAMPS®, WRF). -  In the upcoming Vindforsk report statistics for all sites are given. Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 9. WeatherTech Why so many models? It is important to understand: -  A model is a model, not a perfect description of the real world. Each model has its strengths and weaknesses. -  A modern weather forecast model should be viewed as a model system. -  The results depend not only on choice of model but also on model setup. Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 10. WeatherTech Modelled ice load – 3 models Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 11. WeatherTech Modelled ice load – 3 models Number of hours with active icing, ice growth > 10 g/h 2010/2011 2011/2012 AROME 138 337 COAMPS 290 641 WRF 389 604 Not the same model that gives the largest number of hours with active icing over the two seasons. Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 12. WeatherTech WRF sensitivity study Full name Category Description FNL GFS Final analysis Forcing Final analysis of GFS operational forecast ERA ERA Interim Forcing Re-analysis produced by ECMWF NCAR NCEP/NCAR Forcing Re-analysis produced by NCEP/NCAR WSM3 WRF Single-Moment 3-class Microphysics Simple, efficient scheme with ice and snow processes WSM6 WRF Single-Moment 6-class Microphysics A scheme with ice, snow and graupel processes Morr Morrison 2-moment Microphysics Prognostic mixing ratio for 6 classes and double-moment ice, snow, rain and graupel MYJ Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL Eta operational scheme. Prognostic turbulent kinetic energy scheme with local vertical mixing QNSE Quasi-Normal Scale PBL A TKE-prediction option that uses a new theory Elimination for stably stratified regions MYNN2 Mellor-Yamada Nakanishi and PBL Predicts TKE and other second-moment terms. Niino Level 3 Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 13. WeatherTech WRF sensitivity study Surface Land Microphysics PBL layer Radiation surface Cumulus Forcing RRTM+ Kain- FNL Thompson YSU Eta-MM5 Dudhia Noah Fritsch FNL ERA - - - - - - ERA NCEP/ NCAR - - - - - - NCAR wsm3 WSM3 - - - - - - wsm6 WSM6 - - - - - - Morr Morrison - - - - - - myj - MYJ qnse - QNSE mynn2 - MYNN2 Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 14. WeatherTech Modelled ice load – forcing Number of hours with active icing, ice growth > 10 g/h 2010/2011 FNL 389 ERA 379 NCAR 337 Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 15. WeatherTech Modelled ice load – microphysics Number of hours with active icing, ice growth > 10 g/h 2010/2011 FNL(THO) 389 WSM3 211 WSM6 228 MORR 350 Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 16. WeatherTech Modelled ice load – PBL Number of hours with active icing, ice growth > 10 g/h 2010/2011 FNL(YSU) 389 MYJ 585 QNSE 781 MYNN2 455 Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 17. WeatherTech Modelled ice load – WRF spread Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 18. WeatherTech Modelled ice load – AROME, COAMPS, WRF spread Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 19. WeatherTech Ice load – AROME, COAMPS, WRF spread, obs Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 20. WeatherTech Active icing – AROME, COAMPS, WRF spread Model/Model Hours of active setup icing 2010/2011 No icing hours ( ice growth > 10 g/h) 900 800 AROME 138 700 COAMPS 290 600 WRF FNL 389 500 WRF ERA 379 400 300 WRF NCAR 337 200 WSM3 211 100 WSM6 228 0 MORR 350 MYJ 585 QNSE 781 MYNN2 455 Winterwind 2013 - Östersund
  • 21. WeatherTech Conclusions -  Modelling ice load is not straight forward. The end result depend on which model that is used and how the model is set up. -  Measuring ice is not trivial. State of the art instruments are not accurate enough. => On a scientific level we cannot say which model and model setup that is “the best”. But (don’t despair!) -  The timing of the icing events are quite well captured. -  A newly developed power loss model have shown promising results (Magnus Baltscheffsky at 10.30 tomorrow). Winterwind 2013 - Östersund