SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 35
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
Happy New Year!



                                    Chinese wind turbine market:

                                   Characteristics, experience, export potential


   Winterwind
   Ostersund, Sweden 12 February 2013
   Live Presentation


   Sebastian Meyer
   Director of Research & Advisory
   Azure International Beijing

  Data and information in this presentation is proprietary to Azure International
  Do not distribute or copy without permission, seek permission to reprint excerpts or figures


Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International     1
Azure International
         - company summary profile
           A clean energy technology research & advisory, commercialization &
            investment boutique founded in 2003
           Based in Beijing and dedicated to leveraging the Chinese clean
            energy market and value chain into businesses with global potential
           Team’s professional experience combines deep local and
            international cleantech business management; strong network of
            technical, financial and institutional partners
           Unique, in-house research/knowledgebase combined with hands-on
            execution capabilities in sourcing, operations and marketing
           Proven decade-long track record in commercializing clean energy
            technologies in China



              Engineering                     Market Research        Consulting & advisory     Investment

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                2
Presentation overview
         - outline




                    (1) Introduction to Azure International
                    (2) Capacity & potential in China
                    (3) Operating history & track record
                    (4) Export potential
                    (5) Conclusions




Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International   3
Plans, pipelines, capital
         - China plans to add 1.2TW generating capacity

                 Planned Power Generation Capacity
                       (12th 5-year plan, GW)                                         Total funding need:
        2500
                                                                                      • RMB 2.6 Trn to 2015
                                                                                      • RMB 6.2 Trn to 2020
        2000


                                                                                      Wind funding needed:
        1500                                                             Solar        • RMB 180 Bn to 2015
                                                                                      • RMB 340 Bn to 2020
                                                                         Wind

        1000


                                                                                      Solar funding needed:
                                                                         Nuclear



         500
                                                                         Hydro        • RMB 190 Bn to 2015
                                                                         Coal
                                                                                      • RMB 350 Bn to 2020
            0
                       Now               2015            2020

         Source: 12th 5-year Plan, SERC, Azure International estimates


Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                  4
Plans, pipelines, capital
         - China plans to add 1.2TW generating capacity

                                                        PM2.5 emission sources Beijing
                                                                     vehicle
                                                                                 exhaust: trucks
                                                                                                     vehicle
                                                                                      5%
                                                                                                   exhaust: pass
                                                                         other                         cars
                                                                          7%                            2%
                                                                                                         coal
                                                                                                      combustion
                                                                                                         14%
                                                   secondary
                                                    sources                                           road dust
   Adding 1.2TW                                       34%                                                7%
   generating capacity                                                                              biomass
                                                                                                    burning
   (mostly coal) poses                                                                                 8%
   an unprecedented                                     cigarette
                                                         smoke
                                                                                          soil dust
                                                                            metal           12%
   environmental                                           1% industry    processing
                                                                 5%          5%
   challenge already                        Source: positive matrix factorization, various sources
   obviously
   problematic: Water,
   Air quality, Global                                                     Resource limitations mean wind power likely to
   warming...                                                              outpace plans




Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                                    Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                          5
Plans, pipelines, capital
             - renewable energy targets & pipelines

     • China has seen an unprecedented scale-up and is now the operating
       the world’s largest wind fleet
                                                                                                     Installed capacity (GW, Cumulative)
                           Installed capacity (GW, annual)
                                                                               90
20

18                                                                             80


16                                                                             70
         100% y-o-y growth !
14                                                                             60

12
                                                                               50

10
                                                                               40
8
                                                                               30
6

                                                                               20
4

2                                                                              10


-                                                                              -
        < 2005    2006     2007     2008      2009     2010    2011   2012          < 2005   2006    2007     2008    2009     2010        2011   2012




    Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
    © 2012 Azure International                                Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                                                 6
Plans, pipelines, capital
         - renewable energy installed

 • Pipeline activity reflects economic transactions leading to capacity
 • Wind power Installed base already world’s largest


   Solar PV 5+GW




                               Wind 70GW




   Source: Azure International data                                Source: Azure International, Google Earth

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                   7
Plans, pipelines, capital
         - renewable energy under development

 • Ongoing early development activity across the country indicates
   considerable further potential


        Solar PV 85GW




                        Wind 450GW



 Source: Azure International data                                  Source: Azure International, Google Earth

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                   8
Plans, pipelines, capital
         - renewable energy targets & pipelines

 • Central targets and bottom-up pipelines intersect reasonably well and
   confirm economic interest in out performing capacity targets in the
   long run if feasible

     Solar PV
                                                   Mid Term Target (~2015)                     Long Term Target (~2020)
                                       Target                       21GW                                50GW
             3GW
                                      Pipeline                      18GW                                85GW

     Source: Azure International for pipeline data, targets from NDRC and other Chinese government planning authorities


    Wind
                                                   Mid Term Target (~2015)                     Long Term Target (~2020)
                                       Target               100GW (connected)                          150GW
           65GW
                                       Pipeline                     105GW                              450GW



Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                              9
Plans, pipelines, capital
         - China’s big 5 generators

   • Lots of assets (SOE groups total RMB 2.6Tr or US$ 400Bn)
   • Profits low (2010 net margins average 1.6%, Datang posts loss)
   • All net profit practically invested in capacity additions (2010 RMB 14bn
     or US$ 2.2Bn)
   • Overall balance sheets weak (2010 d/(d+e)=>80%)



                    Big 5 net assets (RMB Bn)                                               Big 5 profitability (RMB Bn)
       800               Total liabilities         Total assets                                              Group profit
                                                                                250
       600
                                                                                200
       400
       200                                                                      150

         0                                                                      100
      -200
                                                                                 50
      -400
      -600                                                                        0
                                                                                      Datang      Huanneng     Guodian      Huadian   CPI
      -800                                                                      -50
                Datang     Huanneng      Guodian        Huadian    CPI
             Source: public declarations y SOE group level companies, not audited or confirmed

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                                 Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                                         10
Plans, pipelines, capital
         - Hong Kong listed renewables subsidiaries


      • Better capitalized with funds raised in HK IPOs
      • Room for more leverage on balance sheets, but eventually capital is
        required for continued asset expansion
      • Given current capital market conditions, companies will be trying to
        conserve capital
                                         1H 2012 Net Debt / D+E (%)

   Datang                                                                                      1/2GW (1Yrs)


                                                                                                              80%
 Huaneng                                                                                 4GW (2Yrs)           MAX


Longyuan                                                                         6GW (3Yrs)

            0%        10%          20%         30%      40%      50%      60%      70%         80%
 Source: Company financial statements

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                        11
Plans, pipelines, capital
         - surcharge & redistribution fails to deliver cash

    • Interconnection delays likely caused by delayed cash reimbursement
      to deficit grids; ie lack of funding causes delays!
                                                     Cumulative wind capacity installed & connected
                         (GW)
                                                 capacity installed & connected     capacity installed not connected
                   70.00

                   60.00

                   50.00

                   40.00

                   30.00

                   20.00

                   10.00

                     0.00
                                      1H06




                                                     1H07




                                                                      1H08




                                                                                    1H09




                                                                                                   1H10




                                                                                                                   1H11




                                                                                                                                 1H12
                            2005




                                              2006




                                                             2007




                                                                             2008




                                                                                            2009




                                                                                                           2010




                                                                                                                          2011
                                   Source: Azure International

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                                       Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                                   12
Plans, pipeline, capital
         - surcharge & redistribution fails to deliver cash

    • Curtailment is also                                       Curtailment by province (2009-2011)
      correlated with
      degree of deficit
      under Surcharge &                                                                                                              黑龙江

      Redistribution
                                                                                                                                     吉林
      mechanism                                                       新疆
                                                                                                                                辽宁

    • Lack of funds also                                                                甘肃                内蒙古
                                                                                                                      北京

      means economic                                                                                 宁夏
                                                                                                                     河北


      uncertainty once                                                             青海                           山西        山东


      grid connection is                                              西藏
                                                                                                          陕西     河南


      completed                                                                                 四川              湖北
                                                                                                                          安徽

                                                                                                      重庆                       浙江
                                                                                                                      江西
                                                                   Above 20%                                   湖南
                                                                                                     贵州                    福建
                                                                   10-20%                  云南
                                                                                                          广西          广东
                                                                   0-10%


                                                        Source: CEC, Azure International




Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                                               13
Plans, pipelines, capital
                    - receivables in the value chain

                Sinovel - receivables vs. payables (RMB Bn)                                Goldwind - receivables vs. payables (RMB Bn)                              Mingyang - receivables vs. payables (RMB Bn)

                            Payables (+)     Receivables (-)                                                                                                                        Payables (+)     Receivables (-)
                                                                                                          Payables (+)     Receivables (-)
20                                                                            15                                                                        10

15                                                                            10                                                                         5

10
                                                                               5                                                                        -
 5
                                                                              -
-                                                                                                                                                       (5)
                                                                              (5)
(5)                                                                                                                                                    (10)
                                                                             (10)
10)
                                                                                                                                                       (15)
15)                                                                          (15)

20)                                                                          (20)                                                                      (20)
         YE09        1H10         YE10       1H11              YE11   1H12             YE09        1H10         YE10       1H11          YE11   1H12             YE09        1H10         YE10       1H11          YE11   1H12

      Source: Company financial statements                                          Source: Company financial statements                                      Source: Company financial statements


      • Sinovel, Goldwind, Mingyang together represent 43% of all installed wind
        generation capacity as at end Oct 2012
      • Knock-on effect clearly affecting working capital of equipment suppliers
      • Payables less receivables already at RMB 9bn (neg) for Sinovel, Goldwind
        and Mingyang
      • Market saw relatively stable installations in the timeframe
      • 1H 2011 working capital funding increase basically locked-up all capital
        raised in previous IPOs of the equipment manufacturers
      Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
      © 2012 Azure International                                                       Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                                                                                               14
Plans, pipeline, capital
         - borderline bankability caused by administration

   Average plant age close to 1.5 years operating only, with most
   operating projects actively repaying long-term loans

   70GW+ installed, financing 80% debt (2-year repayment holiday) puts
   sector exposure on banks at some RMB 280bn
                            •7-year repayment and 6.5% interest means wind sector must
                            repay RMB 50bn in fixed principal and interest payments p.a.
   2012 sector revenue at 2k effective hours by WA FIT is RMB 78bn, with:
                            • RMB 46bn from the OGT, and
                            • RMB 32bn from top-up to FIT, of which

   This leaves some RMB 50bn of timely received cash revenue for
   servicing debt payments

   Further capacity expansion can’t effectively be funded through
   retained earnings/cash; utilities must access (existing) equity

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International   15
Presentation overview
         - outline




                    (1) Introduction to Azure International
                    (2) Capacity & potential in China
                    (3) Operating history & track record
                    (4) Export potential
                    (5) Conclusions




Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International   16
Operating history in China
         - overview
  • Over 5 years                                         • Growing verifiable evidence of reasonably
    operating history                                      robust turbine operations in China
    documented
                                                         • Results reflect curtailment and seasonality
  • Azure International
    data shows turbines                                                                                                                   Operating track record: net capacity factor (%)
    are operating                                                                                                    Average net performance from 01-Mar-06 to 01-Jul-12 (26 GW reference capacity)


    reasonably well
                                                        0.45


                                                         0.4


  • 5 GW shown; data                                    0.35


    set covers 20%                                       0.3

    theoretically
    available generation
                                                        0.25




    for market (’06-’11)                                 0.2



    shows net                                           0.15



    performance of 22%                                   0.1


                                                        0.05                      Congestion likely explains declining average technical performance
  • Can be compared to
    net results for
                                                          0
                                                                                                   Nov/06
                                                                                                            Jan/07




                                                                                                                                                         Nov/07
                                                                                                                                                                  Jan/08




                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov/08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan/09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov/09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov/10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan/12
                                                                        May/06


                                                                                          Sep/06




                                                                                                                              May/07


                                                                                                                                                Sep/07




                                                                                                                                                                                    May/08


                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep/08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          May/09


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sep/09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                May/10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May/11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sep/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            May/12
                                                                                 Jul/06




                                                                                                                                       Jul/07




                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul/08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul/09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul/12
                                                               Mar/06




                                                                                                                     Mar/07




                                                                                                                                                                           Mar/08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar/09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar/12
    Germany                                              Source: Azure International data




Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           13-Feb-13 17
Operating history in China
           - average vs. project level


                    Utilization of wind plant in China                                                 Revenue of Per kW
(full load               Average revenue per kW                    (capacity                               Average revenue per kW
  hours)                 Individual project revenue per kW           factor)        (RMB/kW)               Individual project revenue per kW

   3,000                                                             35%               2,000
                                                                                       1,800
                                                                     30%
   2,500                                                                               1,600
                                                                     25%               1,400
   2,000
                                                                     20%               1,200
   1,500                                                                               1,000
                                                                     15%
                                                                                         800
   1,000
                                                                     10%                 600

     500                                                                                 400
                                                                     5%
                                                                                         200
     -                                                               0%
                                                                                          -
                                    55 projects
                                                                                                                     55 projects
   Source: Azure International,UNFCCC
                                                                                      Source: Azure International,UNFCCC




Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                                   Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                                   13-Feb-13 18
Operating history in China
         - cold weather dominates

                                                                               Chinese fleet exposure
  • Most of the fleet in
    high wind speed
    areas in north China                                                          Cold weather rated   Normal



  • In these regions,
    equipment is rated
    to operate regularly
    in temperatures to
    minus 35 degrees
  • Generally dry
    conditions in north
    China mean ice is
    generally not an
    overall issue
  • Abrasion through
    fine dust is a
    common problem                                              Source: Azure International



Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                    13-Feb-13 19
Operating history in China
         - cold weather dominates

                            2012E Installed wind capacity in cold weather rated provinces
                                                    (>500 MW)
                   25



                                                                                                          Cold!
                   20




                   15


              GW


                   10




                    5




                    0
                          IMAR            Hebei   Gansu   Liaoning   Heilongjiang   Jilin   Xinjiang   Shanxi     Ningxia   Shaanxi


            Source: Azure International


Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                                Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                                        13-Feb-13 20
Operating history in China
         - volume accelerates fleet operating experience
                                          Fleet operating experience (turbine years)

                                                                    Cold weather        Normal



                     Goldwind




                        Sinovel




                        Vestas




                     Dongfang




               Guodian United




                     Mingyang




             Shanghai Eelectric


                                  -           5,000        10,000              15,000            20,000   25,000   30,000

            Source: Azure International


Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                            13-Feb-13 21
Operating history in China
         - direct drive leadership?

                         Fleet operating experience direct drive (turbine years)

                                                                  Cold weather           Normal




                     Goldwind




                        XEMC




                     Energine




                        DNEE




                                -            2,000        4,000                  6,000            8,000   10,000   12,000




Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                                13-Feb-13 22
Presentation overview
         - outline




                    (1) Introduction to Azure International
                    (2) Capacity & potential in China
                    (3) Operating history & track record
                    (4) Export potential
                    (5) Conclusions




Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International   23
Export potential
         - value proposition & risk


             International expectation of value:

             “Deeply discounted capacity with manageable risk
             or reliability tradeoff”

             Azure:

             Because of differences in market maturity, capital
             markets, value chain integration, differing levels of
             quality control and sourcing relationships,
             international sourcing needs to be carefully
             managed to ensure highest valued is obtained
             (& Azure can support international buyers)
Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International   13-Feb-13 24
Export potential
         - available capacity & competitive pricing


                       Supply side (Production plans vs installations)                                               Wind turbine bid price in China (incl. VAT) - 1.5MW
                         total         actual installations   tempered production plans (50%)                                           (RMB/kW)
   45                                                                                           9,000


   40
                                                                                                8,000
   35

                                                                                                7,000
   30

   25
                                                                                                6,000

   20
                                                                                                5,000
   15

   10                                                                                           4,000

    5
                                                                                                3,000
    0




                                                                                                        Apr-07




                                                                                                        Apr-08




                                                                                                        Apr-09




                                                                                                        Apr-10




                                                                                                        Apr-11




                                                                                                        Apr-12
                                                                                                        Feb-07




                                                                                                        Feb-08




                                                                                                        Feb-09




                                                                                                        Feb-10




                                                                                                        Feb-11




                                                                                                        Feb-12



                                                                                                        Sep-12
                                                                                                         Jun-07




                                                                                                         Jun-08




                                                                                                         Jun-09




                                                                                                         Jun-10




                                                                                                         Jun-11
                                                                                                          Jul-06




                                                                                                          Jul-12
                                                                                                        Dec-06




                                                                                                        Dec-07




                                                                                                        Dec-08




                                                                                                        Dec-09




                                                                                                        Dec-10




                                                                                                        Dec-11
                                                                                                        Oct-06




                                                                                                        Oct-07




                                                                                                        Oct-08




                                                                                                        Oct-09




                                                                                                        Oct-10




                                                                                                        Oct-11
                                                                                                        Aug-06




                                                                                                        Aug-07




                                                                                                        Aug-08




                                                                                                        Aug-09




                                                                                                        Aug-10




                                                                                                        Aug-11




                                                                                                        Nov-12
                                                                                                        May-06




                                                                                                        May-12
          2006




                        2007




                                       2008




                                                     2009




                                                              2010




                                                                          2011




                                                                                       2012




             Source: Azure International Data                                                    Source: Azure International Data




        “Apparent” excess capacity
        strong price competition has halved capacity costs as industry reached
        scale

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                                               Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                                                13-Feb-13 25
Export potential
         – exports already started

                                                  Turbine exports form China (MW)
                  400



                  350
                                                                                                     USA
                                                                                                     Pakistan
                  300                                                                                Ecuador
                                                                                                     Brazil
                                                                                           USA       Australia
                  250
                                                                                           Vietnam   Chile
                                                                                           Cyprus
            (MW) 200



                  150                                                    USA

                                                         USA
                  100
                               USA                       India
                               Thailand                 Pakistan
                                                        England
                   50          Cuba
                                                        Thailand
                               Chile

                   -
                                  2008                   2009              2010              2011     2012

             Source: Azure International


Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                                 Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                  13-Feb-13 26
Export potential
         - expectation gaps and context

       • At present negotiations for Chinese turbine for
         developer participation in a growing number of
         projects around the world are frustrated by huge
         gaps and different expectations that exist because of
         differences in China and international markets
       • Context: 100% y-o-y growth, average turbine
         operating experience is just over 1.5 years
       • Shift from most turbines under warrantee in early
         2013, to most turbines beyond 2-year warrantee
         period
       • Warrantee periods quietly extending…it’s a buyer’s
         market


Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International   13-Feb-13 27
Export potential
         – context & risk interpretation (capex and opex)
                          China                                                                ROW
   Capex
 Lower cost                                                                Higher cost
   Opex
 2 year warranty period                                                     5 year warranty period is common, but
                                                                            cost of services is charged to client
 Warranty periods currently being
 expanded                                                                   Enercon: warranty period > 12 years

 Entire Chinese fleet now operational                                       Public data on turbine models which
 for an average period of under 2-years                                     have been operating for more than 10
                                                                            years
 No public data on failure rates
                                                                            Project financial model includes
 Assumes fixed yearly O&M cost with no                                      failure rates
 major failures
                                                                            e.g changing 15% of gearboxes every 5
                                                                            year period
Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International
                                                        Sebastian Meyer, Azure International            13-Feb-13 28
Export potential
         – annual energy production interpretation
                           China                                                               ROW
Considers losses but not uncertainty                                        Considers losses & uncertainty


    Example:
    – GROSS equivalent full load hours: 3500h
    – Estimated energy losses: 20%
    – Net energy production: 2800 full load hours
                    This is the value given in a typical local FSR, it is a P50, there are as many chances
                    that this result is exceeded than chances that it is not reached.

     – Estimated Uncertainty: 15%
     – P75: 2517 full load hours  75% chance of being exceeded
     – P90: 2262 full load hours  90% chance of being exceeded

                    This is is the value used by western developers for project assessment



Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International            13-Feb-13 29
Export potential
         - other commercial DD & finance related issues

       • Country risk, currency risk, policy risk, political risk

       • International banks & insurance difficulty in getting
         comfortable with risks although international listings have
         helped add some balance sheet visibility for some leading
         companies

       • Most Chinese banks are unable to lend in foreign currency,
         long-term parent company guarantee treatment remains
         unresolved particularly with regards to potential future asset
         ownership transfers, PPA uncertainty and unfamiliarity with
         non-PPA market based subsidies

       • Service and maintenance treatment/coverage

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International   13-Feb-13 30
Presentation overview
         - outline




                    (1) Introduction to Azure International
                    (2) Capacity & potential in China
                    (3) Operating history & track record
                    (4) Export potential
                    (5) Conclusions




Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International   31
Conclusion
         - Closing remarks

      • China is already a world leader in wind markets

      • The position and its leading companies as an important global
        industry leader will be optimized if the industry can
        demonstrate long-term success in its home market

      • International markets and approaches particularly around
        policy and finance differ considerably from the China
        experience

      • Execution of growing Chinese brand turbine deals depends on
        refining approaches to international markets and Chinese
        overseas direct investment, but experience is growing...

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International   13-Feb-13 32
Azure International – Syndicated Research
         - Other available studies

     Other reports available:
      A) Wind Development Bottom-Up (updated monthly, predictive)
      B) Wind Turbine Manufacture Bottom-Up (updated monthly, predictive)
      C) Wind Gearboxes Bottom-Up (updated annually)
      D) Large Castings Bottom-Up (updated annually)
      E) Blades Bottom-Up (updated annually)
      F) China Offshore Industry: Sponsored by WWF Norway, and available at:
             http://assets.wwf.no/downloads/china_norway_offshore_wind_final_wwf_march_2010.pdf

     Bespoke assignments (suggestions/examples):
       - Market segments, new products, competitor analysis, policy & market analysis
       - Customer, partner, strategic buyer identification
       - Project pipeline identification/acquisition (China, Australia, USA, Europe)
       - Turbine and component quality due diligences, procurement support
       - Investment related commercial and technical due diligences
       - Wind measurement, project design, micro-siting, turbine selection
       - Permitting & approvals, company structuring & setup
        -Energy strategy: carbon foot-printing and emissions optimization & offset

Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International      33
Conclusion
         - final remarks –
          2012 3Q China Wind Market                                          2012 China Grid Scale Energy
          Quarterly:                                                         Storage:




                   Reports available through Azure International’s partner Greentech Media
                    (GTM) at www.greentechmedia.com
Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                34
Sebastian Meyer
          Director of Research & Advisory
          sebastian.meyer@azure-international.com
          Tel: +86 10 8447 7053
          Fax: +86 10 8447 7058

                                                                                                 Oriental Kenzo
                                                                                Suite H, Office Tower, 6th Floor
                                                                                    48, Dongzhimen Wai Street
                                                                            100027 Dong Cheng District, Beijing
                                                                                                      PR China
                                                                                 www.azure-international.com
   Happy New Year!




Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy
© 2012 Azure International                              Sebastian Meyer, Azure International                       35

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Company Profile GreenMax June 2010
Company Profile GreenMax June 2010Company Profile GreenMax June 2010
Company Profile GreenMax June 2010Fabio de Vita
 
Market Research India - Nuclear Power Market in India 2009
Market Research India - Nuclear Power Market in India 2009Market Research India - Nuclear Power Market in India 2009
Market Research India - Nuclear Power Market in India 2009Netscribes, Inc.
 
Navbharat Ventures Limited Investor Presentation
Navbharat Ventures Limited Investor PresentationNavbharat Ventures Limited Investor Presentation
Navbharat Ventures Limited Investor PresentationAICL Communications
 
Blooming Futures: Fuelling Vehicles With Plant Oils
Blooming Futures: Fuelling Vehicles With Plant OilsBlooming Futures: Fuelling Vehicles With Plant Oils
Blooming Futures: Fuelling Vehicles With Plant OilsXZ3
 
05 development in re policy landscape in the region final te
05 development in re policy landscape in the region final te05 development in re policy landscape in the region final te
05 development in re policy landscape in the region final teRCREEE
 
Global Energy Trends: Role of Renewable Energy, R. J. Morris, AndMore Associa...
Global Energy Trends: Role of Renewable Energy, R. J. Morris, AndMore Associa...Global Energy Trends: Role of Renewable Energy, R. J. Morris, AndMore Associa...
Global Energy Trends: Role of Renewable Energy, R. J. Morris, AndMore Associa...Robert J. (Bob) Morris
 
Power Generation &amp;Distribution.Docx
Power Generation &amp;Distribution.DocxPower Generation &amp;Distribution.Docx
Power Generation &amp;Distribution.Docxkarany2k2003
 
BP Solar: Drivers for Commercial Solar Projects
BP Solar: Drivers for Commercial Solar ProjectsBP Solar: Drivers for Commercial Solar Projects
BP Solar: Drivers for Commercial Solar ProjectsMDV-SEIA
 
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 1 to 6
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 1 to 6AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 1 to 6
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 1 to 6AREVA
 
CRIF Final Presentation, Camco
CRIF Final Presentation, CamcoCRIF Final Presentation, Camco
CRIF Final Presentation, Camcocrifcambs
 
Camco CRIF presentation public sector 12 oct 2011
Camco CRIF presentation public sector 12 oct 2011Camco CRIF presentation public sector 12 oct 2011
Camco CRIF presentation public sector 12 oct 2011crifcambs
 

Was ist angesagt? (12)

Company Profile GreenMax June 2010
Company Profile GreenMax June 2010Company Profile GreenMax June 2010
Company Profile GreenMax June 2010
 
Market Research India - Nuclear Power Market in India 2009
Market Research India - Nuclear Power Market in India 2009Market Research India - Nuclear Power Market in India 2009
Market Research India - Nuclear Power Market in India 2009
 
Navbharat Ventures Limited Investor Presentation
Navbharat Ventures Limited Investor PresentationNavbharat Ventures Limited Investor Presentation
Navbharat Ventures Limited Investor Presentation
 
Blooming Futures: Fuelling Vehicles With Plant Oils
Blooming Futures: Fuelling Vehicles With Plant OilsBlooming Futures: Fuelling Vehicles With Plant Oils
Blooming Futures: Fuelling Vehicles With Plant Oils
 
05 development in re policy landscape in the region final te
05 development in re policy landscape in the region final te05 development in re policy landscape in the region final te
05 development in re policy landscape in the region final te
 
Global Energy Trends: Role of Renewable Energy, R. J. Morris, AndMore Associa...
Global Energy Trends: Role of Renewable Energy, R. J. Morris, AndMore Associa...Global Energy Trends: Role of Renewable Energy, R. J. Morris, AndMore Associa...
Global Energy Trends: Role of Renewable Energy, R. J. Morris, AndMore Associa...
 
Power Generation &amp;Distribution.Docx
Power Generation &amp;Distribution.DocxPower Generation &amp;Distribution.Docx
Power Generation &amp;Distribution.Docx
 
BP Solar: Drivers for Commercial Solar Projects
BP Solar: Drivers for Commercial Solar ProjectsBP Solar: Drivers for Commercial Solar Projects
BP Solar: Drivers for Commercial Solar Projects
 
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 1 to 6
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 1 to 6AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 1 to 6
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 1 to 6
 
CRIF Final Presentation, Camco
CRIF Final Presentation, CamcoCRIF Final Presentation, Camco
CRIF Final Presentation, Camco
 
test
testtest
test
 
Camco CRIF presentation public sector 12 oct 2011
Camco CRIF presentation public sector 12 oct 2011Camco CRIF presentation public sector 12 oct 2011
Camco CRIF presentation public sector 12 oct 2011
 

Andere mochten auch

Byrkjedal øyvind
Byrkjedal øyvindByrkjedal øyvind
Byrkjedal øyvindWinterwind
 
Kvt mapping of_icing
Kvt mapping of_icingKvt mapping of_icing
Kvt mapping of_icingWinterwind
 
Olsson esbjörn
Olsson esbjörnOlsson esbjörn
Olsson esbjörnWinterwind
 
Future wind power forecast errors, and associated costs in the Swedish power ...
Future wind power forecast errors, and associated costs in the Swedish power ...Future wind power forecast errors, and associated costs in the Swedish power ...
Future wind power forecast errors, and associated costs in the Swedish power ...Winterwind
 
Filippo Del Grosso - Transition to I-SEM
Filippo Del Grosso - Transition to I-SEMFilippo Del Grosso - Transition to I-SEM
Filippo Del Grosso - Transition to I-SEMFilippo Del Grosso
 
Bergström hans
Bergström hansBergström hans
Bergström hansWinterwind
 
Ice profile classification - Matthew Wadham-Gagnon
Ice profile classification - Matthew Wadham-GagnonIce profile classification - Matthew Wadham-Gagnon
Ice profile classification - Matthew Wadham-GagnonWinterwind
 
Bergström fredrik
Bergström fredrikBergström fredrik
Bergström fredrikWinterwind
 

Andere mochten auch (11)

Byrkjedal øyvind
Byrkjedal øyvindByrkjedal øyvind
Byrkjedal øyvind
 
Kvt mapping of_icing
Kvt mapping of_icingKvt mapping of_icing
Kvt mapping of_icing
 
Campbell iain
Campbell iainCampbell iain
Campbell iain
 
Olsson esbjörn
Olsson esbjörnOlsson esbjörn
Olsson esbjörn
 
Future wind power forecast errors, and associated costs in the Swedish power ...
Future wind power forecast errors, and associated costs in the Swedish power ...Future wind power forecast errors, and associated costs in the Swedish power ...
Future wind power forecast errors, and associated costs in the Swedish power ...
 
Davis neil
Davis neilDavis neil
Davis neil
 
Filippo Del Grosso - Transition to I-SEM
Filippo Del Grosso - Transition to I-SEMFilippo Del Grosso - Transition to I-SEM
Filippo Del Grosso - Transition to I-SEM
 
Ribeiro carla
Ribeiro carlaRibeiro carla
Ribeiro carla
 
Bergström hans
Bergström hansBergström hans
Bergström hans
 
Ice profile classification - Matthew Wadham-Gagnon
Ice profile classification - Matthew Wadham-GagnonIce profile classification - Matthew Wadham-Gagnon
Ice profile classification - Matthew Wadham-Gagnon
 
Bergström fredrik
Bergström fredrikBergström fredrik
Bergström fredrik
 

Ähnlich wie Meyer sebastian

AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 7
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 7AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 7
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 7AREVA
 
Beyond profit sig carbon finance
Beyond profit sig carbon financeBeyond profit sig carbon finance
Beyond profit sig carbon financeElaine Chow
 
UNFCCC - RE Project Funding International presentation
UNFCCC - RE Project Funding International presentationUNFCCC - RE Project Funding International presentation
UNFCCC - RE Project Funding International presentationHoward Barmil
 
EValu8 offer presentation
EValu8 offer presentationEValu8 offer presentation
EValu8 offer presentationrfenner
 
NewBase 24 April-2023 Energy News issue - 1613 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
NewBase 24 April-2023  Energy News issue - 1613 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdfNewBase 24 April-2023  Energy News issue - 1613 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
NewBase 24 April-2023 Energy News issue - 1613 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdfKhaled Al Awadi
 
Presentation @germany
Presentation @germanyPresentation @germany
Presentation @germanyIskandar Muda
 
Ofgem Presentation at Economist Energy Summit
Ofgem Presentation at Economist Energy SummitOfgem Presentation at Economist Energy Summit
Ofgem Presentation at Economist Energy Summitcarbonbrief
 
Presentation @germany
Presentation @germanyPresentation @germany
Presentation @germanyIskandar Muda
 
State of heart state policies for solar pv
State of heart   state policies for solar pvState of heart   state policies for solar pv
State of heart state policies for solar pvEAI
 
Innovation in Action Conference - Clean Sky with focus on engines, presented...
Innovation in Action Conference  - Clean Sky with focus on engines, presented...Innovation in Action Conference  - Clean Sky with focus on engines, presented...
Innovation in Action Conference - Clean Sky with focus on engines, presented...cleanskyju
 
Chevron at Barclays Capital 2009 CEO Energy/Power Conference
Chevron at Barclays Capital 2009 CEO Energy/Power ConferenceChevron at Barclays Capital 2009 CEO Energy/Power Conference
Chevron at Barclays Capital 2009 CEO Energy/Power Conferenceinvestorrelation
 
Global CCS Institute - Day 1 - Panel 1 - International Progress on CCS Projects
Global CCS Institute - Day 1 - Panel 1 - International Progress on CCS ProjectsGlobal CCS Institute - Day 1 - Panel 1 - International Progress on CCS Projects
Global CCS Institute - Day 1 - Panel 1 - International Progress on CCS ProjectsGlobal CCS Institute
 
Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)
Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)
Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)International Energy Agency
 
Thomas Theisen Rwe
Thomas Theisen   RweThomas Theisen   Rwe
Thomas Theisen RweNick Craig
 
EASTW : Opp day Sep 4, 2012
EASTW : Opp day Sep 4, 2012 EASTW : Opp day Sep 4, 2012
EASTW : Opp day Sep 4, 2012 TonHor Hor
 
New base 756 special 28 december 2015
New base 756 special  28 december 2015New base 756 special  28 december 2015
New base 756 special 28 december 2015Khaled Al Awadi
 

Ähnlich wie Meyer sebastian (20)

The Indian Solar Market: New Market - New Chances
The Indian Solar Market: New Market - New ChancesThe Indian Solar Market: New Market - New Chances
The Indian Solar Market: New Market - New Chances
 
Business plan
Business planBusiness plan
Business plan
 
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 7
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 7AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 7
AREVA, business & strategy overview - January 2009 - Appendix 7
 
Beyond profit sig carbon finance
Beyond profit sig carbon financeBeyond profit sig carbon finance
Beyond profit sig carbon finance
 
UNFCCC - RE Project Funding International presentation
UNFCCC - RE Project Funding International presentationUNFCCC - RE Project Funding International presentation
UNFCCC - RE Project Funding International presentation
 
EValu8 offer presentation
EValu8 offer presentationEValu8 offer presentation
EValu8 offer presentation
 
NewBase 24 April-2023 Energy News issue - 1613 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
NewBase 24 April-2023  Energy News issue - 1613 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdfNewBase 24 April-2023  Energy News issue - 1613 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
NewBase 24 April-2023 Energy News issue - 1613 by Khaled Al Awadi.pdf
 
Presentation @germany
Presentation @germanyPresentation @germany
Presentation @germany
 
Ofgem Presentation at Economist Energy Summit
Ofgem Presentation at Economist Energy SummitOfgem Presentation at Economist Energy Summit
Ofgem Presentation at Economist Energy Summit
 
Kpcgroupfull
KpcgroupfullKpcgroupfull
Kpcgroupfull
 
Presentation @germany
Presentation @germanyPresentation @germany
Presentation @germany
 
State of heart state policies for solar pv
State of heart   state policies for solar pvState of heart   state policies for solar pv
State of heart state policies for solar pv
 
Innovation in Action Conference - Clean Sky with focus on engines, presented...
Innovation in Action Conference  - Clean Sky with focus on engines, presented...Innovation in Action Conference  - Clean Sky with focus on engines, presented...
Innovation in Action Conference - Clean Sky with focus on engines, presented...
 
Kpcgroupfull2
Kpcgroupfull2Kpcgroupfull2
Kpcgroupfull2
 
Chevron at Barclays Capital 2009 CEO Energy/Power Conference
Chevron at Barclays Capital 2009 CEO Energy/Power ConferenceChevron at Barclays Capital 2009 CEO Energy/Power Conference
Chevron at Barclays Capital 2009 CEO Energy/Power Conference
 
Global CCS Institute - Day 1 - Panel 1 - International Progress on CCS Projects
Global CCS Institute - Day 1 - Panel 1 - International Progress on CCS ProjectsGlobal CCS Institute - Day 1 - Panel 1 - International Progress on CCS Projects
Global CCS Institute - Day 1 - Panel 1 - International Progress on CCS Projects
 
Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)
Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)
Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)
 
Thomas Theisen Rwe
Thomas Theisen   RweThomas Theisen   Rwe
Thomas Theisen Rwe
 
EASTW : Opp day Sep 4, 2012
EASTW : Opp day Sep 4, 2012 EASTW : Opp day Sep 4, 2012
EASTW : Opp day Sep 4, 2012
 
New base 756 special 28 december 2015
New base 756 special  28 december 2015New base 756 special  28 december 2015
New base 756 special 28 december 2015
 

Mehr von Winterwind

Delle monache luca
Delle monache lucaDelle monache luca
Delle monache lucaWinterwind
 
Hietanen jarmo
Hietanen jarmoHietanen jarmo
Hietanen jarmoWinterwind
 
Hudecz adriana
Hudecz adrianaHudecz adriana
Hudecz adrianaWinterwind
 
Huttunen saara
Huttunen saaraHuttunen saara
Huttunen saaraWinterwind
 
Jordaens pieter jan
Jordaens pieter janJordaens pieter jan
Jordaens pieter janWinterwind
 
Lehtomäki ville
Lehtomäki villeLehtomäki ville
Lehtomäki villeWinterwind
 
Sell dr. stephan
Sell dr. stephanSell dr. stephan
Sell dr. stephanWinterwind
 
Söderberg stefan
Söderberg stefanSöderberg stefan
Söderberg stefanWinterwind
 
Ayabakan saygin
Ayabakan sayginAyabakan saygin
Ayabakan sayginWinterwind
 
Winterwind program
Winterwind programWinterwind program
Winterwind programWinterwind
 
Vestas de-icing development Morten Sloth, Vestas
Vestas de-icing development Morten Sloth, VestasVestas de-icing development Morten Sloth, Vestas
Vestas de-icing development Morten Sloth, VestasWinterwind
 
Canadian R&D activities on wind energy production in cold climate and in comp...
Canadian R&D activities on wind energy production in cold climate and in comp...Canadian R&D activities on wind energy production in cold climate and in comp...
Canadian R&D activities on wind energy production in cold climate and in comp...Winterwind
 
Comparison of visibility observations at a meteorological tower to cloud base...
Comparison of visibility observations at a meteorological tower to cloud base...Comparison of visibility observations at a meteorological tower to cloud base...
Comparison of visibility observations at a meteorological tower to cloud base...Winterwind
 

Mehr von Winterwind (20)

Delle monache luca
Delle monache lucaDelle monache luca
Delle monache luca
 
Derrick alan
Derrick alanDerrick alan
Derrick alan
 
Hietanen jarmo
Hietanen jarmoHietanen jarmo
Hietanen jarmo
 
Hudecz adriana
Hudecz adrianaHudecz adriana
Hudecz adriana
 
Hutton gail
Hutton gailHutton gail
Hutton gail
 
Huttunen saara
Huttunen saaraHuttunen saara
Huttunen saara
 
Jeffs justin
Jeffs justinJeffs justin
Jeffs justin
 
Jordaens pieter jan
Jordaens pieter janJordaens pieter jan
Jordaens pieter jan
 
Karlsson timo
Karlsson timoKarlsson timo
Karlsson timo
 
Lehtomäki ville
Lehtomäki villeLehtomäki ville
Lehtomäki ville
 
Sell dr. stephan
Sell dr. stephanSell dr. stephan
Sell dr. stephan
 
Sukosd attila
Sukosd attilaSukosd attila
Sukosd attila
 
Szasz robert
Szasz robertSzasz robert
Szasz robert
 
Turkia ville
Turkia villeTurkia ville
Turkia ville
 
Söderberg stefan
Söderberg stefanSöderberg stefan
Söderberg stefan
 
Ayabakan saygin
Ayabakan sayginAyabakan saygin
Ayabakan saygin
 
Winterwind program
Winterwind programWinterwind program
Winterwind program
 
Vestas de-icing development Morten Sloth, Vestas
Vestas de-icing development Morten Sloth, VestasVestas de-icing development Morten Sloth, Vestas
Vestas de-icing development Morten Sloth, Vestas
 
Canadian R&D activities on wind energy production in cold climate and in comp...
Canadian R&D activities on wind energy production in cold climate and in comp...Canadian R&D activities on wind energy production in cold climate and in comp...
Canadian R&D activities on wind energy production in cold climate and in comp...
 
Comparison of visibility observations at a meteorological tower to cloud base...
Comparison of visibility observations at a meteorological tower to cloud base...Comparison of visibility observations at a meteorological tower to cloud base...
Comparison of visibility observations at a meteorological tower to cloud base...
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen

[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance
[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance
[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality AssuranceInflectra
 
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part one: Ado...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part one: Ado...Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part one: Ado...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part one: Ado...Nikki Chapple
 
React Native vs Ionic - The Best Mobile App Framework
React Native vs Ionic - The Best Mobile App FrameworkReact Native vs Ionic - The Best Mobile App Framework
React Native vs Ionic - The Best Mobile App FrameworkPixlogix Infotech
 
MuleSoft Online Meetup Group - B2B Crash Course: Release SparkNotes
MuleSoft Online Meetup Group - B2B Crash Course: Release SparkNotesMuleSoft Online Meetup Group - B2B Crash Course: Release SparkNotes
MuleSoft Online Meetup Group - B2B Crash Course: Release SparkNotesManik S Magar
 
A Framework for Development in the AI Age
A Framework for Development in the AI AgeA Framework for Development in the AI Age
A Framework for Development in the AI AgeCprime
 
Français Patch Tuesday - Avril
Français Patch Tuesday - AvrilFrançais Patch Tuesday - Avril
Français Patch Tuesday - AvrilIvanti
 
A Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance ToolboxA Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance ToolboxAna-Maria Mihalceanu
 
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...Alkin Tezuysal
 
All These Sophisticated Attacks, Can We Really Detect Them - PDF
All These Sophisticated Attacks, Can We Really Detect Them - PDFAll These Sophisticated Attacks, Can We Really Detect Them - PDF
All These Sophisticated Attacks, Can We Really Detect Them - PDFMichael Gough
 
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to HeroUiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to HeroUiPathCommunity
 
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdf
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdfGenerative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdf
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdfIngrid Airi González
 
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance Audit
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance AuditManual 508 Accessibility Compliance Audit
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance AuditSkynet Technologies
 
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platforms
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platformsInfrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platforms
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platformsYoss Cohen
 
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native development
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native developmentEmixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native development
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native developmentPim van der Noll
 
Potential of AI (Generative AI) in Business: Learnings and Insights
Potential of AI (Generative AI) in Business: Learnings and InsightsPotential of AI (Generative AI) in Business: Learnings and Insights
Potential of AI (Generative AI) in Business: Learnings and InsightsRavi Sanghani
 
Tampa BSides - The No BS SOC (slides from April 6, 2024 talk)
Tampa BSides - The No BS SOC (slides from April 6, 2024 talk)Tampa BSides - The No BS SOC (slides from April 6, 2024 talk)
Tampa BSides - The No BS SOC (slides from April 6, 2024 talk)Mark Simos
 
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...BookNet Canada
 
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyes
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyesHow to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyes
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyesThousandEyes
 
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architectures
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architecturesQCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architectures
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architecturesBernd Ruecker
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance
[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance
[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance
 
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part one: Ado...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part one: Ado...Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part one: Ado...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part one: Ado...
 
React Native vs Ionic - The Best Mobile App Framework
React Native vs Ionic - The Best Mobile App FrameworkReact Native vs Ionic - The Best Mobile App Framework
React Native vs Ionic - The Best Mobile App Framework
 
MuleSoft Online Meetup Group - B2B Crash Course: Release SparkNotes
MuleSoft Online Meetup Group - B2B Crash Course: Release SparkNotesMuleSoft Online Meetup Group - B2B Crash Course: Release SparkNotes
MuleSoft Online Meetup Group - B2B Crash Course: Release SparkNotes
 
A Framework for Development in the AI Age
A Framework for Development in the AI AgeA Framework for Development in the AI Age
A Framework for Development in the AI Age
 
Français Patch Tuesday - Avril
Français Patch Tuesday - AvrilFrançais Patch Tuesday - Avril
Français Patch Tuesday - Avril
 
A Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance ToolboxA Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
 
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
 
All These Sophisticated Attacks, Can We Really Detect Them - PDF
All These Sophisticated Attacks, Can We Really Detect Them - PDFAll These Sophisticated Attacks, Can We Really Detect Them - PDF
All These Sophisticated Attacks, Can We Really Detect Them - PDF
 
How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I.
How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I.How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I.
How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I.
 
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to HeroUiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
 
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdf
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdfGenerative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdf
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdf
 
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance Audit
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance AuditManual 508 Accessibility Compliance Audit
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance Audit
 
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platforms
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platformsInfrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platforms
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platforms
 
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native development
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native developmentEmixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native development
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native development
 
Potential of AI (Generative AI) in Business: Learnings and Insights
Potential of AI (Generative AI) in Business: Learnings and InsightsPotential of AI (Generative AI) in Business: Learnings and Insights
Potential of AI (Generative AI) in Business: Learnings and Insights
 
Tampa BSides - The No BS SOC (slides from April 6, 2024 talk)
Tampa BSides - The No BS SOC (slides from April 6, 2024 talk)Tampa BSides - The No BS SOC (slides from April 6, 2024 talk)
Tampa BSides - The No BS SOC (slides from April 6, 2024 talk)
 
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
 
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyes
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyesHow to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyes
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyes
 
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architectures
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architecturesQCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architectures
QCon London: Mastering long-running processes in modern architectures
 

Meyer sebastian

  • 1. Happy New Year! Chinese wind turbine market: Characteristics, experience, export potential Winterwind Ostersund, Sweden 12 February 2013 Live Presentation Sebastian Meyer Director of Research & Advisory Azure International Beijing Data and information in this presentation is proprietary to Azure International Do not distribute or copy without permission, seek permission to reprint excerpts or figures Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 1
  • 2. Azure International - company summary profile  A clean energy technology research & advisory, commercialization & investment boutique founded in 2003  Based in Beijing and dedicated to leveraging the Chinese clean energy market and value chain into businesses with global potential  Team’s professional experience combines deep local and international cleantech business management; strong network of technical, financial and institutional partners  Unique, in-house research/knowledgebase combined with hands-on execution capabilities in sourcing, operations and marketing  Proven decade-long track record in commercializing clean energy technologies in China Engineering Market Research Consulting & advisory Investment Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 2
  • 3. Presentation overview - outline (1) Introduction to Azure International (2) Capacity & potential in China (3) Operating history & track record (4) Export potential (5) Conclusions Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 3
  • 4. Plans, pipelines, capital - China plans to add 1.2TW generating capacity Planned Power Generation Capacity (12th 5-year plan, GW) Total funding need: 2500 • RMB 2.6 Trn to 2015 • RMB 6.2 Trn to 2020 2000 Wind funding needed: 1500 Solar • RMB 180 Bn to 2015 • RMB 340 Bn to 2020 Wind 1000 Solar funding needed: Nuclear 500 Hydro • RMB 190 Bn to 2015 Coal • RMB 350 Bn to 2020 0 Now 2015 2020 Source: 12th 5-year Plan, SERC, Azure International estimates Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 4
  • 5. Plans, pipelines, capital - China plans to add 1.2TW generating capacity PM2.5 emission sources Beijing vehicle exhaust: trucks vehicle 5% exhaust: pass other cars 7% 2% coal combustion 14% secondary sources road dust Adding 1.2TW 34% 7% generating capacity biomass burning (mostly coal) poses 8% an unprecedented cigarette smoke soil dust metal 12% environmental 1% industry processing 5% 5% challenge already Source: positive matrix factorization, various sources obviously problematic: Water, Air quality, Global Resource limitations mean wind power likely to warming... outpace plans Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 5
  • 6. Plans, pipelines, capital - renewable energy targets & pipelines • China has seen an unprecedented scale-up and is now the operating the world’s largest wind fleet Installed capacity (GW, Cumulative) Installed capacity (GW, annual) 90 20 18 80 16 70 100% y-o-y growth ! 14 60 12 50 10 40 8 30 6 20 4 2 10 - - < 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 < 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 6
  • 7. Plans, pipelines, capital - renewable energy installed • Pipeline activity reflects economic transactions leading to capacity • Wind power Installed base already world’s largest Solar PV 5+GW Wind 70GW Source: Azure International data Source: Azure International, Google Earth Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 7
  • 8. Plans, pipelines, capital - renewable energy under development • Ongoing early development activity across the country indicates considerable further potential Solar PV 85GW Wind 450GW Source: Azure International data Source: Azure International, Google Earth Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 8
  • 9. Plans, pipelines, capital - renewable energy targets & pipelines • Central targets and bottom-up pipelines intersect reasonably well and confirm economic interest in out performing capacity targets in the long run if feasible Solar PV Mid Term Target (~2015) Long Term Target (~2020) Target 21GW 50GW 3GW Pipeline 18GW 85GW Source: Azure International for pipeline data, targets from NDRC and other Chinese government planning authorities Wind Mid Term Target (~2015) Long Term Target (~2020) Target 100GW (connected) 150GW 65GW Pipeline 105GW 450GW Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 9
  • 10. Plans, pipelines, capital - China’s big 5 generators • Lots of assets (SOE groups total RMB 2.6Tr or US$ 400Bn) • Profits low (2010 net margins average 1.6%, Datang posts loss) • All net profit practically invested in capacity additions (2010 RMB 14bn or US$ 2.2Bn) • Overall balance sheets weak (2010 d/(d+e)=>80%) Big 5 net assets (RMB Bn) Big 5 profitability (RMB Bn) 800 Total liabilities Total assets Group profit 250 600 200 400 200 150 0 100 -200 50 -400 -600 0 Datang Huanneng Guodian Huadian CPI -800 -50 Datang Huanneng Guodian Huadian CPI Source: public declarations y SOE group level companies, not audited or confirmed Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 10
  • 11. Plans, pipelines, capital - Hong Kong listed renewables subsidiaries • Better capitalized with funds raised in HK IPOs • Room for more leverage on balance sheets, but eventually capital is required for continued asset expansion • Given current capital market conditions, companies will be trying to conserve capital 1H 2012 Net Debt / D+E (%) Datang 1/2GW (1Yrs) 80% Huaneng 4GW (2Yrs) MAX Longyuan 6GW (3Yrs) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: Company financial statements Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 11
  • 12. Plans, pipelines, capital - surcharge & redistribution fails to deliver cash • Interconnection delays likely caused by delayed cash reimbursement to deficit grids; ie lack of funding causes delays! Cumulative wind capacity installed & connected (GW) capacity installed & connected capacity installed not connected 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 1H06 1H07 1H08 1H09 1H10 1H11 1H12 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Azure International Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 12
  • 13. Plans, pipeline, capital - surcharge & redistribution fails to deliver cash • Curtailment is also Curtailment by province (2009-2011) correlated with degree of deficit under Surcharge & 黑龙江 Redistribution 吉林 mechanism 新疆 辽宁 • Lack of funds also 甘肃 内蒙古 北京 means economic 宁夏 河北 uncertainty once 青海 山西 山东 grid connection is 西藏 陕西 河南 completed 四川 湖北 安徽 重庆 浙江 江西 Above 20% 湖南 贵州 福建 10-20% 云南 广西 广东 0-10% Source: CEC, Azure International Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13
  • 14. Plans, pipelines, capital - receivables in the value chain Sinovel - receivables vs. payables (RMB Bn) Goldwind - receivables vs. payables (RMB Bn) Mingyang - receivables vs. payables (RMB Bn) Payables (+) Receivables (-) Payables (+) Receivables (-) Payables (+) Receivables (-) 20 15 10 15 10 5 10 5 - 5 - - (5) (5) (5) (10) (10) 10) (15) 15) (15) 20) (20) (20) YE09 1H10 YE10 1H11 YE11 1H12 YE09 1H10 YE10 1H11 YE11 1H12 YE09 1H10 YE10 1H11 YE11 1H12 Source: Company financial statements Source: Company financial statements Source: Company financial statements • Sinovel, Goldwind, Mingyang together represent 43% of all installed wind generation capacity as at end Oct 2012 • Knock-on effect clearly affecting working capital of equipment suppliers • Payables less receivables already at RMB 9bn (neg) for Sinovel, Goldwind and Mingyang • Market saw relatively stable installations in the timeframe • 1H 2011 working capital funding increase basically locked-up all capital raised in previous IPOs of the equipment manufacturers Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 14
  • 15. Plans, pipeline, capital - borderline bankability caused by administration Average plant age close to 1.5 years operating only, with most operating projects actively repaying long-term loans 70GW+ installed, financing 80% debt (2-year repayment holiday) puts sector exposure on banks at some RMB 280bn •7-year repayment and 6.5% interest means wind sector must repay RMB 50bn in fixed principal and interest payments p.a. 2012 sector revenue at 2k effective hours by WA FIT is RMB 78bn, with: • RMB 46bn from the OGT, and • RMB 32bn from top-up to FIT, of which This leaves some RMB 50bn of timely received cash revenue for servicing debt payments Further capacity expansion can’t effectively be funded through retained earnings/cash; utilities must access (existing) equity Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 15
  • 16. Presentation overview - outline (1) Introduction to Azure International (2) Capacity & potential in China (3) Operating history & track record (4) Export potential (5) Conclusions Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 16
  • 17. Operating history in China - overview • Over 5 years • Growing verifiable evidence of reasonably operating history robust turbine operations in China documented • Results reflect curtailment and seasonality • Azure International data shows turbines Operating track record: net capacity factor (%) are operating Average net performance from 01-Mar-06 to 01-Jul-12 (26 GW reference capacity) reasonably well 0.45 0.4 • 5 GW shown; data 0.35 set covers 20% 0.3 theoretically available generation 0.25 for market (’06-’11) 0.2 shows net 0.15 performance of 22% 0.1 0.05 Congestion likely explains declining average technical performance • Can be compared to net results for 0 Nov/06 Jan/07 Nov/07 Jan/08 Nov/08 Jan/09 Nov/09 Jan/10 Nov/10 Jan/11 Nov/11 Jan/12 May/06 Sep/06 May/07 Sep/07 May/08 Sep/08 May/09 Sep/09 May/10 Sep/10 May/11 Sep/11 May/12 Jul/06 Jul/07 Jul/08 Jul/09 Jul/10 Jul/11 Jul/12 Mar/06 Mar/07 Mar/08 Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Germany Source: Azure International data Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 17
  • 18. Operating history in China - average vs. project level Utilization of wind plant in China Revenue of Per kW (full load Average revenue per kW (capacity Average revenue per kW hours) Individual project revenue per kW factor) (RMB/kW) Individual project revenue per kW 3,000 35% 2,000 1,800 30% 2,500 1,600 25% 1,400 2,000 20% 1,200 1,500 1,000 15% 800 1,000 10% 600 500 400 5% 200 - 0% - 55 projects 55 projects Source: Azure International,UNFCCC Source: Azure International,UNFCCC Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 18
  • 19. Operating history in China - cold weather dominates Chinese fleet exposure • Most of the fleet in high wind speed areas in north China Cold weather rated Normal • In these regions, equipment is rated to operate regularly in temperatures to minus 35 degrees • Generally dry conditions in north China mean ice is generally not an overall issue • Abrasion through fine dust is a common problem Source: Azure International Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 19
  • 20. Operating history in China - cold weather dominates 2012E Installed wind capacity in cold weather rated provinces (>500 MW) 25 Cold! 20 15 GW 10 5 0 IMAR Hebei Gansu Liaoning Heilongjiang Jilin Xinjiang Shanxi Ningxia Shaanxi Source: Azure International Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 20
  • 21. Operating history in China - volume accelerates fleet operating experience Fleet operating experience (turbine years) Cold weather Normal Goldwind Sinovel Vestas Dongfang Guodian United Mingyang Shanghai Eelectric - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Source: Azure International Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 21
  • 22. Operating history in China - direct drive leadership? Fleet operating experience direct drive (turbine years) Cold weather Normal Goldwind XEMC Energine DNEE - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 22
  • 23. Presentation overview - outline (1) Introduction to Azure International (2) Capacity & potential in China (3) Operating history & track record (4) Export potential (5) Conclusions Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 23
  • 24. Export potential - value proposition & risk International expectation of value: “Deeply discounted capacity with manageable risk or reliability tradeoff” Azure: Because of differences in market maturity, capital markets, value chain integration, differing levels of quality control and sourcing relationships, international sourcing needs to be carefully managed to ensure highest valued is obtained (& Azure can support international buyers) Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 24
  • 25. Export potential - available capacity & competitive pricing Supply side (Production plans vs installations) Wind turbine bid price in China (incl. VAT) - 1.5MW total actual installations tempered production plans (50%) (RMB/kW) 45 9,000 40 8,000 35 7,000 30 25 6,000 20 5,000 15 10 4,000 5 3,000 0 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jul-06 Jul-12 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Nov-12 May-06 May-12 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Azure International Data Source: Azure International Data “Apparent” excess capacity strong price competition has halved capacity costs as industry reached scale Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 25
  • 26. Export potential – exports already started Turbine exports form China (MW) 400 350 USA Pakistan 300 Ecuador Brazil USA Australia 250 Vietnam Chile Cyprus (MW) 200 150 USA USA 100 USA India Thailand Pakistan England 50 Cuba Thailand Chile - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Azure International Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 26
  • 27. Export potential - expectation gaps and context • At present negotiations for Chinese turbine for developer participation in a growing number of projects around the world are frustrated by huge gaps and different expectations that exist because of differences in China and international markets • Context: 100% y-o-y growth, average turbine operating experience is just over 1.5 years • Shift from most turbines under warrantee in early 2013, to most turbines beyond 2-year warrantee period • Warrantee periods quietly extending…it’s a buyer’s market Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 27
  • 28. Export potential – context & risk interpretation (capex and opex) China ROW Capex Lower cost Higher cost Opex 2 year warranty period 5 year warranty period is common, but cost of services is charged to client Warranty periods currently being expanded Enercon: warranty period > 12 years Entire Chinese fleet now operational Public data on turbine models which for an average period of under 2-years have been operating for more than 10 years No public data on failure rates Project financial model includes Assumes fixed yearly O&M cost with no failure rates major failures e.g changing 15% of gearboxes every 5 year period Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 28
  • 29. Export potential – annual energy production interpretation China ROW Considers losses but not uncertainty Considers losses & uncertainty Example: – GROSS equivalent full load hours: 3500h – Estimated energy losses: 20% – Net energy production: 2800 full load hours This is the value given in a typical local FSR, it is a P50, there are as many chances that this result is exceeded than chances that it is not reached. – Estimated Uncertainty: 15% – P75: 2517 full load hours  75% chance of being exceeded – P90: 2262 full load hours  90% chance of being exceeded This is is the value used by western developers for project assessment Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 29
  • 30. Export potential - other commercial DD & finance related issues • Country risk, currency risk, policy risk, political risk • International banks & insurance difficulty in getting comfortable with risks although international listings have helped add some balance sheet visibility for some leading companies • Most Chinese banks are unable to lend in foreign currency, long-term parent company guarantee treatment remains unresolved particularly with regards to potential future asset ownership transfers, PPA uncertainty and unfamiliarity with non-PPA market based subsidies • Service and maintenance treatment/coverage Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 30
  • 31. Presentation overview - outline (1) Introduction to Azure International (2) Capacity & potential in China (3) Operating history & track record (4) Export potential (5) Conclusions Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 31
  • 32. Conclusion - Closing remarks • China is already a world leader in wind markets • The position and its leading companies as an important global industry leader will be optimized if the industry can demonstrate long-term success in its home market • International markets and approaches particularly around policy and finance differ considerably from the China experience • Execution of growing Chinese brand turbine deals depends on refining approaches to international markets and Chinese overseas direct investment, but experience is growing... Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 13-Feb-13 32
  • 33. Azure International – Syndicated Research - Other available studies Other reports available: A) Wind Development Bottom-Up (updated monthly, predictive) B) Wind Turbine Manufacture Bottom-Up (updated monthly, predictive) C) Wind Gearboxes Bottom-Up (updated annually) D) Large Castings Bottom-Up (updated annually) E) Blades Bottom-Up (updated annually) F) China Offshore Industry: Sponsored by WWF Norway, and available at: http://assets.wwf.no/downloads/china_norway_offshore_wind_final_wwf_march_2010.pdf Bespoke assignments (suggestions/examples): - Market segments, new products, competitor analysis, policy & market analysis - Customer, partner, strategic buyer identification - Project pipeline identification/acquisition (China, Australia, USA, Europe) - Turbine and component quality due diligences, procurement support - Investment related commercial and technical due diligences - Wind measurement, project design, micro-siting, turbine selection - Permitting & approvals, company structuring & setup -Energy strategy: carbon foot-printing and emissions optimization & offset Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 33
  • 34. Conclusion - final remarks – 2012 3Q China Wind Market 2012 China Grid Scale Energy Quarterly: Storage:  Reports available through Azure International’s partner Greentech Media (GTM) at www.greentechmedia.com Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 34
  • 35. Sebastian Meyer Director of Research & Advisory sebastian.meyer@azure-international.com Tel: +86 10 8447 7053 Fax: +86 10 8447 7058 Oriental Kenzo Suite H, Office Tower, 6th Floor 48, Dongzhimen Wai Street 100027 Dong Cheng District, Beijing PR China www.azure-international.com Happy New Year! Confidential & Proprietary: Do not distribute or copy © 2012 Azure International Sebastian Meyer, Azure International 35