TrustArc Webinar - Unlock the Power of AI-Driven Data Discovery
FoE nov 2013
1. Seeing is believing
The transformation of data into understanding
through visualisation
!
Dr Will Stahl-Timmins
Associate Research Fellow: Visualisation
EUROPEAN UNION
Investing in Your Future
European Regional
Development Fund 2007-13
EUROPEAN UNION
Investing in Your Future
European Regional
Development Fund 2007-13
2. ECEHH - European Centre for Environment and Human Health
Information graphics - visual presentation of E&HH data and information
Seeing is Believing - investigating the effects of visual presentation
3. ECEHH - European Centre for Environment and Human Health
Information graphics
Seeing is Believing
10. Spain
South Korea
New Zealand
Healthy
life expectancy in years
Palestine
Nicaragua
Sick
70
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
Laos
Yemen
Myanmar
Ghana
Ethiopia
Gambia
Niger
Mauritania
Burundi
Mozambique
Dem. Rep. Congo
Nigeria
Cameroon
Zambia
Sierra Leone
1 000
Afghanistan
Angola
Lesotho
2 000
100
1000
millions
2011 data for all 193 UN Members and for
Hong Kong, Kosovo, Palestine, Puerto
Rico and Taiwan.
Documentation and
pdf version for print at:
gapminder.org/downloads/world-pdf
Free to copy, share and
remix, but attribute to
Gapminder Foundation.
Botswana
Equatorial Guinea
If you want to see more data visit:
www.gapminder.org
Chad
Central African Rep.
Guinea-Bissau
500
South Africa
Mali
Colour by region
3 or 10
less
Uganda
Guinea
Somalia
Zimbabwe
Congo, Rep.
Burkina Benin
Faso
Cote d'Ivoire
Rwanda
Malawi
Kuwait
Size by population
Gabon
Namibia
South Sudan
Senegal
Qatar
Brunei
United Arab Emirates
Kazakhstan
Kiribati
Djibouti
55
USA
Taiwan Denmark
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Turkmenistan
India
Timor-Leste
Kenya
Togo
Liberia
Bhutan
Sudan
Tanzania
Singapore
Nauru
Papua New Guinea
Haiti
Russia
Ukraine
Bolivia
Tuvalu
Comoros
60
Philippines
Sao Tome
and Principe
Cambodia
Grenada Serbia
Indonesia
Fiji
Mongolia
Pakistan
65
Eritrea
Iraq
Moldova
Uzbekistan
Solomon
Islands
Madagascar
Norway
Sweden
Canada
Netherlands
Austria
Germany
Finland Belgium
Bosnia and H.
Belize
Australia
Ireland
UK
China
Bangladesh
North Korea
Nepal
Puerto Rico
Mexico
Slovenia
Iceland
San Marino
Hong
Andorra Switzerland Kong
France
Brazil
Micronesia
Life Expectancy of the World
Malta
Cyprus
Uruguay Barbados
Czech Rep.
Poland
DominicaCroatia
Slovak Rep.
Panama
Antigua
Ecuador
Montenegro
Argentina&Barbuda Bahamas
St.Lucia
Bahrain
Cape
St. Kitts
Sri Lanka Thailand Macedonia
Libya
Estonia
Venezuela
Verde
& Nevis
Tunisia
Armenia
Seychelles
Malaysia Hungary
Peru
Romania Mauritius
Egypt Dom.R.
Georgia
Jordan
Saudi
Colombia Turkey
Latvia
Honduras
Oman
Iran
Paraguay Samoa
Jamaica
Arabia
Lebanon
Algeria
Lithuania
Palau
Bulgaria
Morocco
Tonga El Salvador St.Vincent
and G.
Vanuatu
Guatemala
Suriname
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Guyana
Trinidad and Tobago
Kosovo
Syria
Vietnam
Rich
Greece
Income per Person of the World
Poor
75
Chile Portugal
Cuba Costa Rica
Maldives Albania
50
Italy
map layout by Paolo Fausone
Israel
Mapping the Wealth and Health of Nations
80
Monaco
Japan
GAPMINDER WORLD 2012
Swaziland
5 000
Version 11 September 2012
10 000
20 000
income per person in US Dollars (GDP/capita, PPP$ inflation adjusted, log scale)
50 000
21. > 50km
Change in no.
of people with
‘good health’
20–50km
0%
(baseline)
0–1km
1–5km distance
from sea
5–20km
+ 0.5%
+ 0.6%
+1.0%
+ 1.1%
Regression coefficient
% Change in population ‘good health’ (+ 95% CI)
1.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1.0
0.5
Urban
Town/Fringe
Rural
0.0
-0.5
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Income deprivation quintiles (Q1=most deprived)
Q5
22. 0–1km
Distance of dwelling from sea
> 50km
20–50km
5–20km
1–5km
Coast
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1.5
Health
(Regression coefficient – % Change
in population with ‘good health’ + 95% CI)
Income deprivation quintiles:
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Q1
most deprived
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
least deprived
23. 0–1km
Distance of dwelling from sea
> 50km
20–50km
5–20km
1–5km
Coast
Health
1.5
1.5
% Change in
population with
‘good health’
+ 95% CI
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Q1
Q2
Q3
most deprived
Q4
Q5
least deprived
Income deprivation quintiles
24. 0–1km
Distance of dwelling from sea
> 50km
20–50km
5–20km
1–5km
(baseline)
Health
1.5
1.5
% Change in
population with
‘good health’
+ 95% CI
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
Coast
Q1
Q2
Q3
most deprived
Q4
Q5
least deprived
Income deprivation quintiles
25. 0–1km
Distance of dwelling from sea
> 50 km
20–50 km
5–20km
1–5km
(baseline)
Health
% Change in
population with
‘good health’
+ 95% CI
Coast
1.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
All urban areas
Q1
most
deprived
Q2
Q3
Q4
All urban areas by income deprivation quintile
Q5
least
deprived
36. Working Group II Report
impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
!
Chapter 8
Human Health
37.
38. FLOODS AND STORMS
GLOBAL TRENDS
Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm
physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation.
Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. This information
graphic shows some of the causes and health impacts of floods, and
shows how the number and severity of floods may increase in the future.
CLIMATE CHANGE
URBANISATION
The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing
temperatures to rise around the world. As these higher temperatures free
water that is usually frozen at the poles, sea levels are rising. Increased
temeratures also lead to more evaporation of water from seas and lakes.
This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms,
cyclones and extreme weather events.
The number of people living in
cities is growing, particularly in
low income countries.
1900
1950
2005
FLOOD CAUSES
= 100m people
in towns or cities
SEA LEVEL
RAINFALL
STORMS
EVAPORATION
Coastal regions
are more
vulnerable to
flooding as sea
levels rise.
Extreme rainfall
can overwhelm
rivers and lakes,
causing them to
flood.
Drowning by
storm surge is
the major killer
in coastal
storms.
Global warming
and changes in
land use (like
urbanisation)
affect how much
water is carried
in the air.
VULNERABLE PLACES
THE NORTH
SEA COAST
THE NILE
DELTA
FLOODS
SOUTH ASIA
MICRONESIA
THE GULF
COAST
LATIN
AMERICA
LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY
Urbanisation can
affect how much
excess water
can be absorbed
into the ground.
Sometimes,
the shape of the
land can make
areas vulnerable
to flooding.
One-quarter of the
world’s population
resides within 100 km
distance and 100 m
elevation of the
coastline.
VULNERABLE
PEOPLE
Those living in
Low lying places
(especially those
with high density)
In the USA, lower-income
groups were most
affected by Hurricane
Katrina in 2005.
Poorer communities
BAY OF BENGAL
(particularly at
risk from storm
GULF OF
GUINEA SEYCHELLES surges)
DEATH & INJURY
HEALTH IMPACTS
SURFACE
RUN-OFF
Those with limited
ability to escape
Such as children, the
infirm, or those living
in sub-standard housing.
INFECTIOUS
DISEASES
Deaths recorded in disaster databases
are from drowning and severe injuries.
VENEZUELA
1999
30,000 DEAD
MOZAMBIQUE
2000/2001
1,813 DEAD
CHINA
2003
130m AFFECTED
Improved warnings have decreased mortality from floods
and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact
of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects
is still considerable and is unequally distributed,
particularly affecting women.
TOXIC CONTAMINATION
MENTAL
HEALTH
Particularly in
places with
poor sanitation:
Diarrhoeal
diseases
Cholera
Cryptosporidiosis
Typhoid fever
From storage or
from chemicals
already in the
environment:
Oil
Pesticides
Heavy metals
Hazardous
waste
Insufficiently
investigated,
but may include:
Post-traumatic
stress
Behavioural
disorders in
children
Anxiety?
Depression?
FUTURE CHANGES
CASE STUDY 1: BANGLADESH
CASE STUDY 2: USA
If human activity continues to warm global temperatures,
countries like Bangladesh are likely to see more flooding.
Studies in industrialised countries indicate that densely
populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise.
ASSUMPTIONS
Global temperature rise
Global Sea level rise
Increase in monsoon rains
Increase in monsoon
discharge into rivers
NEW ORLEANS (USA)
2°c
4°c
30cm
100cm
18%
33%
5%
10%
LIKELY EFFECTS
People affected
4.8%
57%
Flooding depth
30–90cm
90–180cm
1.5–3m below
sea level now
Mid-range estimate
of 48 cm sea level
rise by 2100 plus
subsidence
2.5–4m below
This would mean that
sea level by 2100
a storm surge from a
Category 3 hurricane
(estimated at 3 to 4 m
without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above
areas that were heavily populated in 2004.
39. GLOBA
FLOODS AND STORMS
CLIMATE CHANGE
The number of people living in
cities is growing, particularly in
low income countries.
1900
1950
2005
FLOOD CAUSES
= 100m people
in towns or cities
SEA LEVEL
RAINFALL
STORMS
EVAPORATION
Coastal regions
are more
vulnerable to
flooding as sea
levels rise.
Extreme rainfall
can overwhelm
rivers and lakes,
causing them to
flood.
Drowning by
storm surge is
the major killer
in coastal
storms.
Global warming
and changes in
land use (like
urbanisation)
affect how much
water is carried
in the air.
VULNERABLE PLACES
THE NORTH
SEA COAST
THE NILE
DELTA
FLOODS
SOUTH ASIA
MICRONESIA
THE GULF
COAST
LATIN
AMERICA
SURFACE
RUN-OFF
LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY
Urbanisation can
affect how much
excess water
can be absorbed
into the ground.
Sometimes,
the shape of the
land can make
areas vulnerable
to flooding.
One-quarter of the
world’s population
resides within 100 km
distance and 100 m
elevation of the
coastline.
VULNERABLE
PEOPLE
Those living in
Low lying places
(especially those
with high density)
Those with limited
ability to escape
RAINFALL
STORMS
EVAPORATION
Coastal regions
are more
vulnerable to
flooding as sea
levels rise.
Extreme rainfall
can overwhelm
rivers and lakes,
causing them to
flood.
Drowning by
storm surge is
the major killer
in coastal
storms.
Global warming
and changes in
land use (like
urbanisation)
affect how much
water is carried
in the air.
VULNERABLE PLACES
In the USA, lower-income
groups were most
affected by Hurricane
Katrina in 2005.
Poorer communities
BAY OF BENGAL
(particularly at
risk from storm
GULF OF
GUINEA SEYCHELLES surges)
SEA LEVEL
THE NORTH
SEA COAST
Such as children, the
infirm, or those living
in sub-standard housing.
THE NILE
DELTA
FLOODS
SOUTH ASIA
INFECTIOUS
DISEASES
Deaths recorded in disaster databases
are from drowning and severe injuries.
VENEZUELA
1999
30,000 DEAD
MOZAMBIQUE
2000/2001
1,813 DEAD
CHINA
2003
130m AFFECTED
Improved warnings have decreased mortality from floods
and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact
of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects
is still considerable and is unequally distributed,
particularly affecting women.
TOXIC CONTAMINATION
MENTAL
HEALTH
Particularly in
places with
poor sanitation:
Diarrhoeal
diseases
Cholera
Cryptosporidiosis
Typhoid fever
From storage or
from chemicals
already in the
environment:
Oil
Pesticides
Heavy metals
Hazardous
waste
Insufficiently
investigated,
but may include:
Post-traumatic
stress
Behavioural
disorders in
children
Anxiety?
Depression?
CASE STUDY 1: BANGLADESH
LATIN
AMERICA
VULNERABLE
PEOPLE
Those living in
Low lying places
(especially those
with high density)
Poorer communities
BAY OF BENGAL
(particularly at
risk from storm
GULF OF
GUINEA SEYCHELLES surges)
Those with limited
ability to escape
SURFACE
RUN-OFF
Urbanisation can
affect how much
excess water
can be absorbed
into the ground.
One-qu
world’s
resides
distanc
elevatio
coastlin
In the U
groups
affected
Katrina
Such as
infirm, o
in sub-s
CASE STUDY 2: USA
If human activity continues to warm global temperatures,
countries like Bangladesh are likely to see more flooding.
MICRONESIA
THE GULF
COAST
Studies in industrialised countries indicate that densely
populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise.
ASSUMPTIONS
Global temperature rise
Global Sea level rise
Increase in monsoon rains
Increase in monsoon
discharge into rivers
NEW ORLEANS (USA)
2°c
4°c
30cm
100cm
18%
33%
5%
10%
LIKELY EFFECTS
People affected
4.8%
57%
Flooding depth
30–90cm
90–180cm
1.5–3m below
sea level now
Mid-range estimate
of 48 cm sea level
rise by 2100 plus
subsidence
2.5–4m below
This would mean that
sea level by 2100
a storm surge from a
Category 3 hurricane
(estimated at 3 to 4 m
without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above
areas that were heavily populated in 2004.
DEATH & INJURY
H IMPACTS
HEALTH IMPACTS
DEATH & INJURY
FUTURE CHANGES
1900
1950
2005
URBANISATION
The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing
temperatures to rise around the world. As these higher temperatures free
water that is usually frozen at the poles, sea levels are rising. Increased
temeratures also lead to more evaporation of water from seas and lakes.
This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms,
cyclones and extreme weather events.
FLOOD CAUSES
GLOBAL TRENDS
Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm
physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation.
Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. This information
graphic shows some of the causes and health impacts of floods, and
shows how the number and severity of floods may increase in the future.
This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms,
cyclones and extreme weather events.
Deaths recorded in disaster databases
are from drowning and severe injuries.
VENEZUELA
1999
30,000 DEAD
MOZAMBIQUE
2000/2001
1,813 DEAD
CHINA
2003
130m AFFECTED
INFECTIOUS
DISEASES
TOXIC CONTAMINATION
Particularly in
places with
poor sanitation:
Diarrhoeal
diseases
From storage or
from chemicals
already in the
environment:
Oil
40. FLOODS AND STORMS
AIR QUALITY AND DISEASE
Weather at all time scales determines the development, transport, dispersion and deposition
of air pollutants, with the passage of fronts, cyclonic and anticyclonic systems and their
associated air masses being of particular importance. This information graphic shows
some of the causes and health impacts of air pollution, and shows how both the amount
of air pollution, and our exposure to it, may increase in the future.
Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm
physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation.
Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. This information
graphic shows some of the causes and health impacts of floods, and
shows how the number and severity of floods may increase in the future.
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE
URBANISATION
The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing
temperatures to rise around the world. As these higher temperatures free
water that is usually frozen at the poles, sea levels are rising. Increased
temeratures also lead to more evaporation of water from seas and lakes.
This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms,
cyclones and extreme weather events.
The number of people living in
cities is growing, particularly in
low income countries.
The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is
causing temperatures to rise around the world. These higher
temperatures can affect weather systems, causing extremely
high or extremely low winds. Rising temperatures also affect
the amount of water in the atmosphere.
1900
1950
2005
POLLUTION SOURCES
GLOBAL TRENDS
Investigating the use of
information graphics
to explain the effects
of climate change
on health, compared
to textual presentation.
FLOODS AND STORMS
There is increasing evidence of the importance of mental disorders as an impact of
disasters. Prolonged impairment resulting from common mental disorders (anxiety
and depression) may be considerable. Studies in both low- and high-income
countries indicate that the mental-health aspect of flood-related impacts has
been insufficiently investigated. A systematic review of post-traumatic stress
disorder in high income countries found a small but significant effect following
disasters. There is also evidence of medium- to long-term impacts on behavioural
disorders in young children.
Vulnerability to weather disasters depends on the attributes of the person at risk
(including where they live, age, income, education and disability) and on broader
social and environmental factors (level of disaster preparedness, health sector
responses and environmental degradation). Poorer communities, particularly slum
dwellers, are more likely to live in flood-prone areas. In the USA, lower-income
groups were most affected by Hurricane Katrina, and low-income schools had
twice the risk of being flooded compared with the reference group.
High-density populations in low-lying coastal regions experience a high health
burden from weather disasters, such as settlements along the North Sea coast in
north-west Europe, the Seychelles, parts of Micronesia, the Gulf Coast of the USA
and Mexico, the Nile Delta, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Bay of Bengal.
Environmentally degraded areas are particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones
and coastal flooding under current climate conditions.
Future vulnerability to climate change
EVAPORATION
Drowning by
storm surge is
the major killer
in coastal
storms.
Global warming
and changes in
land use (like
urbanisation)
affect how much
water is carried
in the air.
THE NILE
DELTA
FLOODS
SOUTH ASIA
MICRONESIA
THE GULF
COAST
LATIN
AMERICA
HEALTH IMPACTS
SURFACE
RUN-OFF
LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY
Urbanisation can
affect how much
excess water
can be absorbed
into the ground.
Sometimes,
the shape of the
land can make
areas vulnerable
to flooding.
Those living in
Low lying places
(especially those
with high density)
In the USA, lower-income
groups were most
affected by Hurricane
Katrina in 2005.
BAY OF BENGAL
(particularly at
risk from storm
GULF OF
GUINEA SEYCHELLES surges)
Those with limited
ability to escape
Such as children, the
infirm, or those living
in sub-standard housing.
INFECTIOUS
DISEASES
Deaths recorded in disaster databases
are from drowning and severe injuries.
VENEZUELA
1999
30,000 DEAD
MOZAMBIQUE
2000/2001
1,813 DEAD
CHINA
2003
130m AFFECTED
Improved warnings have decreased mortality from floods
and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact
of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects
is still considerable and is unequally distributed,
particularly affecting women.
TOXIC CONTAMINATION
From storage or
from chemicals
already in the
environment:
Oil
FOREST
FIRES
As well as producing
greenhouse gasses
such as carbon dioxide, that
lead to global warming,
the burning of fossil fuels
for energy releases small
particles into the air, called
particulate matter (PM).
The amount of air
pollution breathed
in by people
depends on:
— Wind / circulation of air
— Topography
— Housing
characteristics
— Activity patterns
In urban areas, transport
vehicles are the key sources
of nitrogen oxides and volatile
organic compounds (VOCs)
that lead to ground-level
ozone. Burning fossil fuels
for transport also releases
other gasses and particles.
Naturally-occuring forest
fires mean that toxic
gaseous and particulate air
pollutants are released
into the atmosphere.
ALLERGIC
RHINITIS
Hazardous
waste
The number
of forest fires
is affected by:
— Raised
temperatures
— Atmospheric
moisture
PARTICULATE
MATTER (PM)
OTHER TOXIC
GASSES
Many different kinds of
combustion, both artificial
and natural, can cause
particles of solid matter can
become suspended in the air.
PM is known to affect
morbidity and mortality.
Ozone is a secondary pollutant
formed through photochemical
reactions involving nitrogen
oxides and volatile organic
compounds (VOCs) in the
presence of bright sunshine
with high temperatures.
As well as ozone, other
toxic gasses such as
carbon monoxide can have
effects on human health.
PNEUMONIA
Insufficiently
investigated,
but may include:
Post-traumatic
stress
Behavioural
disorders in
children
Anxiety?
Pesticides
Heavy metals
PM generation
is affected by:
— Raised
temperatures
— Atmospheric
moisture
OZONE
Severe
allergies can
limit quality
of life.
MENTAL
HEALTH
Particularly in
places with
poor sanitation:
Diarrhoeal
diseases
Cholera
Cryptosporidiosis
Typhoid fever
URBAN
TRANSPORT
Ozone generation
is affected by:
— Bright sunlight
— Raised temperatures
— Low winds
— Atmospheric
moisture
One-quarter of the
world’s population
resides within 100 km
distance and 100 m
elevation of the
coastline.
VULNERABLE
PEOPLE
Poorer communities
DEATH & INJURY
COPD
ASTHMA
Particularly
affects
children.
Chronic
obstructive
pulmonary
disease.
Can affect
quality of life,
and is
increasingly
common,
particularly in
children.
OTHER
DISEASE
Other Cardiovascular and
respiratory
diseases are
also caused by
air pollution.
BURNS
& SMOKE
INHALATION
forest fires
can have
direct effects
on health.
MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY
Depression?
OZONE MODELS
FUTURE CHANGES
CASE STUDY 1: BANGLADESH
CASE STUDY 2: USA
If human activity continues to warm global temperatures,
countries like Bangladesh are likely to see more flooding.
Studies in industrialised countries indicate that densely
populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise.
ASSUMPTIONS
Global temperature rise
Global Sea level rise
Increase in monsoon rains
Increase in monsoon
discharge into rivers
NEW ORLEANS (USA)
2°c
4°c
30cm
100cm
18%
33%
5%
10%
LIKELY EFFECTS
People affected
4.8%
57%
Flooding depth
30–90cm
90–180cm
1.5–3m below
sea level now
Mid-range estimate
of 48 cm sea level
rise by 2100 plus
subsidence
2.5–4m below
This would mean that
sea level by 2100
a storm surge from a
Category 3 hurricane
(estimated at 3 to 4 m
without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above
areas that were heavily populated in 2004.
PM MODELS
Future emissions are, of course, uncertain, and depend on
assumptions of population growth, economic development,
regulatory actions and energy use. Changes in
concentrations of ground-level ozone driven by scenarios
of future emissions and/or weather patterns have been
projected for Europe and North America:
FUTURE CHANGES
The risk of infectious disease following flooding in high income countries is
generally low, although increases in respiratory and diarrhoeal diseases have been
reported after floods. An important exception was the impact of Hurricanes Katrina
and Rita in the USA in 2005, where contamination of water supplies with faecal
bacteria led to many cases of diarrhoeal illness and some deaths.
Flooding may lead to contamination of waters with dangerous chemicals, heavy
metals or other hazardous substances, from storage or from chemicals already in
the environment (e.g., pesticides). Chemical contamination following Hurricane
Katrina in the USA included oil spills from refineries and storage tanks, pesticides,
metals and hazardous waste. Concentrations of most contaminants were within
acceptable short-term levels, except for lead and volatile organic compounds
(VOCs) in some areas. There are also health risks associated with long-term
contamination of soil and sediment; however, there is little published evidence
demonstrating a causal effect of chemical contamination on the pattern of
morbidity and mortality following flooding events. Increases in population density
and accelerating industrial development in areas subject to natural disasters
increase the probability of future disasters and the potential for mass human
exposure to hazardous materials released during disasters.
STORMS
Extreme rainfall
can overwhelm
rivers and lakes,
causing them to
flood.
THE NORTH
SEA COAST
Major storm and flood disasters have occurred in the last two decades. In 2003,
130 million people were affected by floods in China. In 1999, 30,000 died from
storms followed by floods and landslides in Venezuela. In 2000/2001, 1,813 died
in floods in Mozambique. Improved structural and non-structural measures,
particularly improved warnings, have decreased mortality from floods and storm
surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact of weather disasters in terms of
social and health effects is still considerable and is unequally distributed,
particularly affecting women. Flood health impacts range from deaths, injuries,
infectious diseases and toxic contamination, to mental health problems.
Populations with poor sanitation infrastructure and high burdens of infectious
disease often experience increased rates of diarrhoeal diseases after flood events.
Increases in cholera, cryptosporidiosis and typhoid fever have been reported in
low- and middle-income countries. Flood related increases in diarrhoeal disease
have also been reported in India, Brazil and Bangladesh. The floods in Mozambique
in 2001 were estimated to have caused over 8,000 additional cases and 447
deaths from diarrhoeal disease in the following months.
RAINFALL
Coastal regions
are more
vulnerable to
flooding as sea
levels rise.
VULNERABLE PLACES
Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical
infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation. Floods are the most
frequent natural weather disaster. Floods result from the interaction of rainfall,
surface runoff, evaporation, wind, sea level and local topography. In inland areas,
flood regimes vary substantially depending on catchment size, topography and
climate. Water management practices, urbanisation, intensified land use and
forestry can substantially alter the risks of floods. Windstorms are often
associated with floods.
In terms of deaths and populations affected, floods and tropical cyclones have the
greatest impact in South Asia and Latin America. Deaths recorded in disaster
databases are from drowning and severe injuries. Deaths from unsafe or unhealthy
conditions following the extreme event are also a health consequence, but such
information is rarely included in disaster statistics. Drowning by storm surge is the
major killer in coastal storms where there are large numbers of deaths. An
assessment of surges in the past 100 years found that major events were confined
to a limited number of regions, with many events occurring in the Bay of Bengal,
particularly Bangladesh.
SEA LEVEL
ENERGY
PRODUCTION
AIR POLLUTION (AP)
FLOOD CAUSES
= 100m people
in towns or cities
These changes may affect air pollution in two main ways. First,
it may mean that the atmospheric conditions are right for more
air pollution to form. Secondly, it may change the patterns of air
flow, meaning that more people are exposed to this pollution.
Evidence for the health impacts of particulate matter
is stronger than that for ozone. However, there are
few models of the impact of climate change on pollutants
other than ozone. These tend to emphasise the role of
local abatement strategies in determining the future
levels of, primarily, particulate matter, and tend to project
the probability of air-quality standards being exceeded
instead of absolute concentrations; the results vary
by region.
REFERENCE AREA
assumed changes
by 2050s
TEMP.
INCREASE EMISSIONS
EFFECTS
Knowlton
New York
et al., 2004 area, USA
1.6 –
3.2°C
medium
increase
4.5% more
deaths
Bell et al.,
2007
1.6 –
3.2°C
medium
increase
0.6% more
deaths
0.9 –
2.4°C
no
increase
ozone +
other AP -
50 cities,
East USA
Anderson
England
et al., 2001 & Wales
(all models assume population
constant at year 2000 level)
There are no projections for cities in low- or middleincome countries, despite the heavier pollution burdens
in these populations.
Because transboundary transport of pollutants plays
a significant role in determining local to regional air
quality, changing patterns of atmospheric circulation
at the hemispheric to global level are likely to be just
as important as regional patterns for future local air
quality.
41.
42. Approval
View Time
8 mins
6
5
4
3 mins
KEY
3
157 157 129 129 160 160
149
177
MEAN & 95% CI
SIG. (P < 0.05)
N.S. (P > 0.05)
TEXT A
GRAPHIC A
RISK GROUP A:
STORMS & FLOODS
179 179 142 142 166 166
163
185
TEXT B
GRAPHIC B
RISK GROUP B:
AIR QUALITY
43. View Time
View Time (log10)
8 mins
6 mins*
3 3 mins
mins
KEY
157 157 129 129 160 160
149
177
MEAN & 95% CI
SIG. (P < 0.05)
N.S. (P > 0.05)
TEXT A
GRAPHIC A
RISK GROUP A:
STORMS & FLOODS
179 179 142 142 166 166
163
185
TEXT B
GRAPHIC B
RISK GROUP B:
AIR QUALITY
44. Knowledge
Memory
100%
80%
60%
0%
KEY
MEAN & 95% CI
SIG. (P < 0.05)
N.S. (P > 0.05)
159
157
130
129
CONTROL A
CONTROL A
TEXT A
TEXT A
164
160
GRAPHIC A
GRAPHIC A
RISK GROUP A:
RISK GROUP A:
STORMS & FLOODS
STORMS & FLOODS
179
179
142
142
CONTROL B TEXT B
CONTROL B TEXT B
166
166
RISK GROUP B:
RISK QUALITY
AIR GROUP B:
AIR QUALITY
GRAPHIC B
GRAPHIC B
45. Risk perception (severity)
7
28
1
14
KEY
MEAN & 95% CI
SIG. (P < 0.05)
N.S. (P > 0.05)
158
157
129
129
CONTROL A
CONTROL A
TEXT A
TEXT A
160
160
GRAPHIC A
GRAPHIC A
RISK GROUP A:
RISK GROUP A:
STORMS & FLOODS
STORMS & FLOODS
176
179
142
142
CONTROL B TEXT B
CONTROL B TEXT B
161
166
RISK GROUP B:
RISK QUALITY
AIR GROUP B:
AIR QUALITY
GRAPHIC B
GRAPHIC B
47. Conclusions
!
- This type of box / arrow diagram can be used to communicate
information on climate change health impacts in less time and more
effectively than using text, for this audience.
!
- The technique might be used to effectively present other non-linear
narratives.
!
- The study suggests that understanding the mechanisms for climate
change health impacts, even in the short term, could increase risk
awareness.
49. FLOODS AND STORMS
AIR QUALITY AND DISEASE
Weather at all time scales determines the development, transport, dispersion and deposition
of air pollutants, with the passage of fronts, cyclonic and anticyclonic systems and their
associated air masses being of particular importance. This information graphic shows
some of the causes and health impacts of air pollution, and shows how both the amount
of air pollution, and our exposure to it, may increase in the future.
Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm
physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation.
Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. This information
graphic shows some of the causes and health impacts of floods, and
shows how the number and severity of floods may increase in the future.
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE
URBANISATION
The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing
temperatures to rise around the world. As these higher temperatures free
water that is usually frozen at the poles, sea levels are rising. Increased
temeratures also lead to more evaporation of water from seas and lakes.
This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms,
cyclones and extreme weather events.
The number of people living in
cities is growing, particularly in
low income countries.
The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is
causing temperatures to rise around the world. These higher
temperatures can affect weather systems, causing extremely
high or extremely low winds. Rising temperatures also affect
the amount of water in the atmosphere.
1900
1950
2005
POLLUTION SOURCES
GLOBAL TRENDS
Investigating the use of
information graphics
to explain the effects
of climate change
on health, compared
to textual presentation.
FLOODS AND STORMS
There is increasing evidence of the importance of mental disorders as an impact of
disasters. Prolonged impairment resulting from common mental disorders (anxiety
and depression) may be considerable. Studies in both low- and high-income
countries indicate that the mental-health aspect of flood-related impacts has
been insufficiently investigated. A systematic review of post-traumatic stress
disorder in high income countries found a small but significant effect following
disasters. There is also evidence of medium- to long-term impacts on behavioural
disorders in young children.
Vulnerability to weather disasters depends on the attributes of the person at risk
(including where they live, age, income, education and disability) and on broader
social and environmental factors (level of disaster preparedness, health sector
responses and environmental degradation). Poorer communities, particularly slum
dwellers, are more likely to live in flood-prone areas. In the USA, lower-income
groups were most affected by Hurricane Katrina, and low-income schools had
twice the risk of being flooded compared with the reference group.
High-density populations in low-lying coastal regions experience a high health
burden from weather disasters, such as settlements along the North Sea coast in
north-west Europe, the Seychelles, parts of Micronesia, the Gulf Coast of the USA
and Mexico, the Nile Delta, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Bay of Bengal.
Environmentally degraded areas are particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones
and coastal flooding under current climate conditions.
Future vulnerability to climate change
EVAPORATION
Drowning by
storm surge is
the major killer
in coastal
storms.
Global warming
and changes in
land use (like
urbanisation)
affect how much
water is carried
in the air.
THE NILE
DELTA
FLOODS
SOUTH ASIA
MICRONESIA
THE GULF
COAST
LATIN
AMERICA
HEALTH IMPACTS
SURFACE
RUN-OFF
LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY
Urbanisation can
affect how much
excess water
can be absorbed
into the ground.
Sometimes,
the shape of the
land can make
areas vulnerable
to flooding.
Those living in
Low lying places
(especially those
with high density)
In the USA, lower-income
groups were most
affected by Hurricane
Katrina in 2005.
BAY OF BENGAL
(particularly at
risk from storm
GULF OF
GUINEA SEYCHELLES surges)
Those with limited
ability to escape
Such as children, the
infirm, or those living
in sub-standard housing.
INFECTIOUS
DISEASES
Deaths recorded in disaster databases
are from drowning and severe injuries.
VENEZUELA
1999
30,000 DEAD
MOZAMBIQUE
2000/2001
1,813 DEAD
CHINA
2003
130m AFFECTED
Improved warnings have decreased mortality from floods
and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact
of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects
is still considerable and is unequally distributed,
particularly affecting women.
TOXIC CONTAMINATION
From storage or
from chemicals
already in the
environment:
Oil
FOREST
FIRES
As well as producing
greenhouse gasses
such as carbon dioxide, that
lead to global warming,
the burning of fossil fuels
for energy releases small
particles into the air, called
particulate matter (PM).
The amount of air
pollution breathed
in by people
depends on:
— Wind / circulation of air
— Topography
— Housing
characteristics
— Activity patterns
In urban areas, transport
vehicles are the key sources
of nitrogen oxides and volatile
organic compounds (VOCs)
that lead to ground-level
ozone. Burning fossil fuels
for transport also releases
other gasses and particles.
Naturally-occuring forest
fires mean that toxic
gaseous and particulate air
pollutants are released
into the atmosphere.
ALLERGIC
RHINITIS
Hazardous
waste
The number
of forest fires
is affected by:
— Raised
temperatures
— Atmospheric
moisture
PARTICULATE
MATTER (PM)
OTHER TOXIC
GASSES
Many different kinds of
combustion, both artificial
and natural, can cause
particles of solid matter can
become suspended in the air.
PM is known to affect
morbidity and mortality.
Ozone is a secondary pollutant
formed through photochemical
reactions involving nitrogen
oxides and volatile organic
compounds (VOCs) in the
presence of bright sunshine
with high temperatures.
As well as ozone, other
toxic gasses such as
carbon monoxide can have
effects on human health.
PNEUMONIA
Insufficiently
investigated,
but may include:
Post-traumatic
stress
Behavioural
disorders in
children
Anxiety?
Pesticides
Heavy metals
PM generation
is affected by:
— Raised
temperatures
— Atmospheric
moisture
OZONE
Severe
allergies can
limit quality
of life.
MENTAL
HEALTH
Particularly in
places with
poor sanitation:
Diarrhoeal
diseases
Cholera
Cryptosporidiosis
Typhoid fever
URBAN
TRANSPORT
Ozone generation
is affected by:
— Bright sunlight
— Raised temperatures
— Low winds
— Atmospheric
moisture
One-quarter of the
world’s population
resides within 100 km
distance and 100 m
elevation of the
coastline.
VULNERABLE
PEOPLE
Poorer communities
DEATH & INJURY
COPD
ASTHMA
Particularly
affects
children.
Chronic
obstructive
pulmonary
disease.
Can affect
quality of life,
and is
increasingly
common,
particularly in
children.
OTHER
DISEASE
Other Cardiovascular and
respiratory
diseases are
also caused by
air pollution.
BURNS
& SMOKE
INHALATION
forest fires
can have
direct effects
on health.
MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY
Depression?
OZONE MODELS
FUTURE CHANGES
CASE STUDY 1: BANGLADESH
CASE STUDY 2: USA
If human activity continues to warm global temperatures,
countries like Bangladesh are likely to see more flooding.
Studies in industrialised countries indicate that densely
populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise.
ASSUMPTIONS
Global temperature rise
Global Sea level rise
Increase in monsoon rains
Increase in monsoon
discharge into rivers
NEW ORLEANS (USA)
2°c
4°c
30cm
100cm
18%
33%
5%
10%
LIKELY EFFECTS
People affected
4.8%
57%
Flooding depth
30–90cm
90–180cm
1.5–3m below
sea level now
Mid-range estimate
of 48 cm sea level
rise by 2100 plus
subsidence
2.5–4m below
This would mean that
sea level by 2100
a storm surge from a
Category 3 hurricane
(estimated at 3 to 4 m
without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above
areas that were heavily populated in 2004.
PM MODELS
Future emissions are, of course, uncertain, and depend on
assumptions of population growth, economic development,
regulatory actions and energy use. Changes in
concentrations of ground-level ozone driven by scenarios
of future emissions and/or weather patterns have been
projected for Europe and North America:
FUTURE CHANGES
The risk of infectious disease following flooding in high income countries is
generally low, although increases in respiratory and diarrhoeal diseases have been
reported after floods. An important exception was the impact of Hurricanes Katrina
and Rita in the USA in 2005, where contamination of water supplies with faecal
bacteria led to many cases of diarrhoeal illness and some deaths.
Flooding may lead to contamination of waters with dangerous chemicals, heavy
metals or other hazardous substances, from storage or from chemicals already in
the environment (e.g., pesticides). Chemical contamination following Hurricane
Katrina in the USA included oil spills from refineries and storage tanks, pesticides,
metals and hazardous waste. Concentrations of most contaminants were within
acceptable short-term levels, except for lead and volatile organic compounds
(VOCs) in some areas. There are also health risks associated with long-term
contamination of soil and sediment; however, there is little published evidence
demonstrating a causal effect of chemical contamination on the pattern of
morbidity and mortality following flooding events. Increases in population density
and accelerating industrial development in areas subject to natural disasters
increase the probability of future disasters and the potential for mass human
exposure to hazardous materials released during disasters.
STORMS
Extreme rainfall
can overwhelm
rivers and lakes,
causing them to
flood.
THE NORTH
SEA COAST
Major storm and flood disasters have occurred in the last two decades. In 2003,
130 million people were affected by floods in China. In 1999, 30,000 died from
storms followed by floods and landslides in Venezuela. In 2000/2001, 1,813 died
in floods in Mozambique. Improved structural and non-structural measures,
particularly improved warnings, have decreased mortality from floods and storm
surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact of weather disasters in terms of
social and health effects is still considerable and is unequally distributed,
particularly affecting women. Flood health impacts range from deaths, injuries,
infectious diseases and toxic contamination, to mental health problems.
Populations with poor sanitation infrastructure and high burdens of infectious
disease often experience increased rates of diarrhoeal diseases after flood events.
Increases in cholera, cryptosporidiosis and typhoid fever have been reported in
low- and middle-income countries. Flood related increases in diarrhoeal disease
have also been reported in India, Brazil and Bangladesh. The floods in Mozambique
in 2001 were estimated to have caused over 8,000 additional cases and 447
deaths from diarrhoeal disease in the following months.
RAINFALL
Coastal regions
are more
vulnerable to
flooding as sea
levels rise.
VULNERABLE PLACES
Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical
infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation. Floods are the most
frequent natural weather disaster. Floods result from the interaction of rainfall,
surface runoff, evaporation, wind, sea level and local topography. In inland areas,
flood regimes vary substantially depending on catchment size, topography and
climate. Water management practices, urbanisation, intensified land use and
forestry can substantially alter the risks of floods. Windstorms are often
associated with floods.
In terms of deaths and populations affected, floods and tropical cyclones have the
greatest impact in South Asia and Latin America. Deaths recorded in disaster
databases are from drowning and severe injuries. Deaths from unsafe or unhealthy
conditions following the extreme event are also a health consequence, but such
information is rarely included in disaster statistics. Drowning by storm surge is the
major killer in coastal storms where there are large numbers of deaths. An
assessment of surges in the past 100 years found that major events were confined
to a limited number of regions, with many events occurring in the Bay of Bengal,
particularly Bangladesh.
SEA LEVEL
ENERGY
PRODUCTION
AIR POLLUTION (AP)
FLOOD CAUSES
= 100m people
in towns or cities
These changes may affect air pollution in two main ways. First,
it may mean that the atmospheric conditions are right for more
air pollution to form. Secondly, it may change the patterns of air
flow, meaning that more people are exposed to this pollution.
Evidence for the health impacts of particulate matter
is stronger than that for ozone. However, there are
few models of the impact of climate change on pollutants
other than ozone. These tend to emphasise the role of
local abatement strategies in determining the future
levels of, primarily, particulate matter, and tend to project
the probability of air-quality standards being exceeded
instead of absolute concentrations; the results vary
by region.
REFERENCE AREA
assumed changes
by 2050s
TEMP.
INCREASE EMISSIONS
EFFECTS
Knowlton
New York
et al., 2004 area, USA
1.6 –
3.2°C
medium
increase
4.5% more
deaths
Bell et al.,
2007
1.6 –
3.2°C
medium
increase
0.6% more
deaths
0.9 –
2.4°C
no
increase
ozone +
other AP -
50 cities,
East USA
Anderson
England
et al., 2001 & Wales
(all models assume population
constant at year 2000 level)
There are no projections for cities in low- or middleincome countries, despite the heavier pollution burdens
in these populations.
Because transboundary transport of pollutants plays
a significant role in determining local to regional air
quality, changing patterns of atmospheric circulation
at the hemispheric to global level are likely to be just
as important as regional patterns for future local air
quality.
50. ECEHH - European Centre for Environment and Human Health
Information graphics - visual presentation of E&HH data and information
Seeing is Believing - investigating the effects of visual presentation
