3. 3
Andrew Burns
World Bank
June 2013
Global
Economic
Prospects
Less volatile,
but slower growth
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
4. -10
-5
0
5
10
15
2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
World
2013:Q1 Global GDP
growing at a 2.0%
annualized pace
2012:Q4 Developing
country GDP growing at a
5.7% annualized pace
Quarterly GDP growth, annualized
Source: World Bank.
Global growth is picking up
5. -10
-5
0
5
10
15
2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
World
2013:Q1 Global GDP
growing at a 2.0%
annualized pace
2012:Q4 Developing
country GDP growing at a
5.7% annualized pace
Quarterly GDP growth, annualized
Source: World Bank.
Global growth is picking up
6. -10
-5
0
5
10
15
2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Developing countries
World
2013:Q1 Global GDP
growing at a 2.0%
annualized pace
2012:Q4 Developing
country GDP growing at a
5.7% annualized pace
Quarterly GDP growth, annualized
Source: World Bank.
Global growth is picking up
7. -10
-5
0
5
10
15
2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1
Developing countries
World
High-income countries
2013:Q1 Global GDP
growing at a 2.0%
annualized pace
2012:Q4 Developing
country GDP growing at a
5.7% annualized pace
Quarterly GDP growth, annualized
Source: World Bank.
Global growth is picking up
8. 44
47
50
53
56
59
Jan '11 Apr '11 Jul '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Apr '13
Confidence indicators continue
to send mixed signals
Purchasing Manager Indexes, balance of respondents ( > 50 implies expansion)
Euro Area
8
Source: World Bank, Markit, National Sources.
9. 44
47
50
53
56
59
Jan '11 Apr '11 Jul '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Apr '13
Confidence indicators continue
to send mixed signals
Purchasing Manager Indexes, balance of respondents ( > 50 implies expansion)
Euro Area
Other high-income
9
Source: World Bank, Markit, National Sources.
10. 44
47
50
53
56
59
Jan '11 Apr '11 Jul '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Apr '13
Confidence indicators continue
to send mixed signals
Purchasing Manager Indexes, balance of respondents ( > 50 implies expansion)
China
Euro Area
Other high-income
10
Source: World Bank, Markit, National Sources.
11. 44
47
50
53
56
59
Jan '11 Apr '11 Jul '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Apr '13
Confidence indicators continue
to send mixed signals
Purchasing Manager Indexes, balance of respondents ( > 50 implies expansion)
China
Other developing
Euro Area
Other high-income
11
Source: World Bank, Markit, National Sources.
12. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentage
points slower than pre-crisis rates
Annual GDP growth, %
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.
World
12
13. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentage
points slower than pre-crisis rates
Annual GDP growth, %
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.
World
13
High-income
14. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentage
points slower than pre-crisis rates
Annual GDP growth, %
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.
World
14
High-income
15. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentage
points slower than pre-crisis rates
Annual GDP growth, %
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.
World
15
High-income
16. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentage
points slower than pre-crisis rates
Annual GDP growth, %
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.
World
16
High-income
17. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentage
points slower than pre-crisis rates
Annual GDP growth, %
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.
World
17
Developing countries
High-income
18. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentage
points slower than pre-crisis rates
Annual GDP growth, %
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.
World
18
Developing countries
High-income
19. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentage
points slower than pre-crisis rates
Annual GDP growth, %
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.
World
19
Developing countries
High-income
20. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth to pick up but remain 1-2 percentage
points slower than pre-crisis rates
Annual GDP growth, %
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2013B.
World
20
Developing countries
High-income
21. -4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2005 2010 2015
Slower post-crisis growth reflects broadly
unchanged potential growth
21
Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA)
Output Gap
GDP growth
Potential Output growth
Source: World Bank.
22. -4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2005 2010 2015
Slower post-crisis growth reflects broadly
unchanged potential growth
22
Annual growth of potential and actual GDP (%), Output Gap % of GDP (developing excluding ECA, MNA)
Output Gap
GDP growth
Potential Output growth
Source: World Bank.
23. Industrial commodity prices are
easing due to new supply
23
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13
USD price indexes, January 1005=100
Source: World Bank.
24. Industrial commodity prices are
easing due to new supply
24
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13
Metals &
Minerals
USD price indexes, January 1005=100
Source: World Bank.
25. Industrial commodity prices are
easing due to new supply
25
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13
Energy
Metals &
Minerals
USD price indexes, January 1005=100
Source: World Bank.
26. Industrial commodity prices are
easing due to new supply
26
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13
Agricultural
goods
Energy
Metals &
Minerals
USD price indexes, January 1005=100
Source: World Bank.
27. Industrial commodity prices are
easing due to new supply
27
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13
Food
Agricultural
goods
Energy
Metals &
Minerals
USD price indexes, January 1005=100
Source: World Bank.
28. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Dec '10 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13
Yields are rising and could go up even more
as QE is withdrawn
Spread
US 10 year treasury yield
Implied developing country yield
Sovereign 10 year bond yields, and spreads, basis points
Source: World Bank, Datastream, JP Morgan.
29. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Dec '10 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13
Yields are rising and could go up even more
as QE is withdrawn
Spread
US 10 year treasury yield
Implied developing country yield
Sovereign 10 year bond yields, and spreads, basis points
Source: World Bank, Datastream, JP Morgan.
30. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Dec '10 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13
Yields are rising and could go up even more
as QE is withdrawn
Spread
US 10 year treasury yield
Implied developing country yield
Sovereign 10 year bond yields, and spreads, basis points
Source: World Bank, Datastream, JP Morgan.
31. Private-sector debt may prove destabilizing if
interest rates rise or risk appetites change
Source: World Bank, International Debt Statistics.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Chi na
Sout h Af r i ca
Mal aysi a
Vi et nam
St . Luci a
Panama
Thai l and
Maur i t i us
Lebanon
Lat vi a
Gr enada
Tuni si a
Fi j i
Jor dan
Bul gar i a
Mor occo
Chi l e
Vanuat u
Cape Ver de
Br azi l
Bel i ze
Domi ni ca
Ukr ai ne
Mont enegr o
Bosni a and Her zegovi na
Mal di ves
Li t huani a
Nepal
St . Vi ncent and t he Gr enadi nes
Mongol i a
Bhut an
Tur key
I ndi a
Hondur as
Bangl adesh
Ser bi a
Cost a Ri ca
Samoa
Russi an Feder at i on
Macedoni a, FYR
Col ombi a
Private Domestic banking claims (% GDP)
Middle-income countries
Low-income countries
32. Outlook
• Muted but solid growth for developing
countries
• Most developing countries have recovered
from the crisis
• Strengthen the supply potential
32
33. 33
Andrew Burns
World Bank
June 2013
Global
Economic
Prospects
Less volatile,
but slower growth
http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
