Solar energy prices have dropped tremendously in recent years and are now competitive with fossil fuels in many applications. Utility-scale solar now beats natural gas peak power prices and residential solar competes in many states. The solar industry is experiencing rapid growth in the US and globally, creating many jobs, though consolidation is occurring as the industry matures. While solar still receives less subsidies than fossil fuels, it enjoys broad public support that could help advance the transition to renewable energy sources.
2. “Solar is so cheap today,
that unless you tell me
that you did a solar
analysis yesterday, not
last year or last month,
then your analysis is out
of date.”
– David Crane,
CEO of NRG Energy
3/2012
3. Solar Panel Prices Have Dropped Tremendously
Q3 2012:
Reported ASPs
61¢ to 76¢ per
Watt
Module Pricing Trends 1989-2011
Source: EIA: October 19, 2011 http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.cfm?t=ptb1008; 2011 data point from GTM PVNews, April 2012
4. Utility Solar Power Now Beats Nuclear Prices,
Nears Coal
Nuclear and
coal power
takes 9 – 10
years to build
Wholesale Electricity Pricing
Sources: Nuclear & Coal Costs: Entergy Arkansas Testimony (Docket 12-038-U); Utility Scale Solar – EPIA, NM PRC
5. Utility Solar Now Beats Natural Gas Peak Power
Wholesale Electricity Pricing
Sources: Gas Plants - EIA AEO 2012er; CCNG data point: Entergy 2012 APSC Testimony; Utility Scale Solar – EPIA, NM PRC
6. Residential Solar Competes in Many States Today
(with more on the way)
Residential Electricity Prices vs Solar Prices
With new finance models, Americans are
installing solar at no or low upfront cost.
Source: EIA (actual 2010, forecasted 2011-20); EPIA mid solar residential cost forecast
7. Competitively-priced
solar has created a
virtuous cycle of market
expansion and further
cost reduction.
8. Solar is Rapidly Scaling
27.7 GW
Solar installed worldwide
in 2011
By comparison:
4 GW
of nuclear went into
operation in 2011
9. US Market is Showing Healthy Growth
684 MW
UP 77% Q3 2012
First 3 Qs of installations
2012 over
78% avg.
2011
annual
growth
since 2006
Annual U.S. Solar Market Growth
The U.S. “is one of the most
important (solar markets), because it
is one of the few places around the
world where we are seeing market
growth.”
Source: DOE/EERE 2010 Data Book; 2011 data from SEIA/GTM Market Insight Report
– Steven Taub, GE Capital
10. Solar Adoption is on a High Tech Trajectory:
US Cell Phone Market Source: CTIA – The Wireless Asscoiation
11. In a race to market
maturity, there are
always winners and
losers.
12. Consolidation is a Sign of Maturity: Early
Automotive
Year Year
1914 1984
11.5 million cars
2 million cars After 70 years of mergers 15 manufacturers
and bankruptcies
350 manufacturers
# OF CAR MANUFACTURERS
# OF CARS PRODUCED
Adapted from: Howard H Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy, University of Tennessee, Assessment
of Incentives and Employment Impacts of Solar Industry Development, May, 2012.
13. Consolidation is a Sign of Maturity: Early Dot
Com
~5,000
companies
acquired or
$5 trillion shutdown
of market
value
erased
Would you
call the
INTERNET
a failure?
NASDAQ closing prices from 1994 to 2008
Source: NADAQ Composite Index, Webmergers, Inc.
15. Behind tumultuous
headlines,
solar is a true
American success
story.
16. Solar Creates U.S. Jobs
120,000 Americans
work in solar today
8
7 7x more jobs per High growth despite
6
5
energy unit recession
than coal Solar employment grew 10x faster
4
than the general economy
3
2
1
0
Nat ural Gas Coal Nuclear Wind CCS Biomass Solar Thermal Geot hermal Solar PV
Sources: Kammen, David M et al, 2004, Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean
Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Wei, Max et al, 2010, Putting Renewables
to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy and the Haas School of
Business, University of California, Berkeley, in Energy Policy, vol 38, issue 2, February 2010.
Solar Foundation 2011 National Jobs Census
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: May 2010 National Industry-Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates
17. US Military Is Going Big on Solar
Completed US PV Projects
Completed US PV Projects
“This is about the bottom line of the United States
Army: it is about military effectiveness.”
-Dennis McGuinn, US Navy Vice Admiral (ret.)
DoD committed to 1200 MW on +50 domestic bases
SolarCityto install 300 MW on 120,000 military residences
18. American Businesses Are Going Big on Solar
Top 20 Companies Total:
1.2 million solar panels
700 systems in 25 states
$47.3 million in annual
utility bill savings
19. Major Financial Players Are Going Big on
Solar
Recent Investments
$109B
Saudi Arabia’s
20-year solar
investment
plan
$5.7B
Recently
announced
investments
20. U.S. Utilities Are Investing in Solar
Utility PV Pipeline “My number one fear is we’ll be
pushed to build natural gas at the
expense of solar and wind . . .
Ben Franklin said there are two
certainties in life: death and taxes.
To that I would add the price of
natural gas.”
- Jim Rogers, CEO of Duke Energy
20-fold
increase
5-fold
increase Expected Completion Date
Source: GreenTech Media, PV News, July 2012
21. The playing field and
the rules of the game
are still designed to
support fossil power.
It’s time for a new
game.
22. Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels
Solar Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuel and
Solar
[ELI,
$72.4 billion SEIA]
$2 billion
[SEIA, Blumenauer,
$40 billion Treasury]
$7-10 billion
Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002-2008 Environmental Law Institute, September 2009
EstimatingSEIAGovernment Subsidies to Energyin the United States: A Comparison of Energy Technologies, (Solar Energy
U.S. Federal Energy Subsidies Sources: 2002-2008Environmental Law Institute, September 2009SEIA February 2011
“Ending Oil Industry Tax Breaks” Congressman Earl Blumenauer,United States: A Comparison of Energy Technologies, February 24, 2011
Industries Association) Federal Energy Subsidies in the Third District of Oregon, www.blumenauer.house.gov, April 2011
“ Ending Oil Industry Tax Breaks” Congressman Earl Blumenauer, Third District of Oregon, www.blumenauer.house.gov, April 2011
24. Bipartisan Public Support for Clean Energy
91 percentof Americans say
developing sources of clean
energy should be a priority
for the President and
Congress
85% of Republicans
89% of Independents
97% of Democrats
Sources: Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies in May 2011, Yale Project on Climate Change.
25. Understanding Solar
Solar is . .
Delivering record cost reductions
Achieving record market growth
Putting Americans to work in all 50 states
Transforming the U.S. energy economy
Not in 20 years. Not tomorrow. Today.
Hinweis der Redaktion
The rapidly changing cost of solar is the single most important and untold dynamic affecting the story of solar power today.
EIA: October 19, 2011 http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.cfm?t=ptb1008; 2011 data point from GTM PVNews, April 2012
Consider the source, but in my view EIA projections tend to be conservative for fossil fuels, pessimistic for renewables 2020 assumption: $6 gas;Utility industry execs surveyed (B&V 2012): more (41.5%) thought gas would be over $6 in 2020, than though it would be less (35.8%)Gas is fuel of choice for most utilities; Half the CO2 of coal, but methane is 21x more potent GhG, not to mention fracking concerns Being adopted rapidly by utilities in face of nuclear and coal concerns
On average, residential solar will be cheaper than grid electricity in the next few yearsThere are many other factors that need to be considered and this could be viewed as optimistic.
Source: DOE/EERE 2010 data book; 2011 data from SEIA/GTM market insight report
The real winner here are the consumers. American energy customers who now have access to lowest cost solar ever.
Solyndra Response 1: Auto industryAlready the subject of significant public misinformation, solar was thrown head first into the national spotlight following Solyndra’s high-profile bankruptcy. A highly politicized debate about the health of the industry and the merits of critical policy support has ensued. Solar’s new position as a political punching bag in an election year brings well-financed opposition. Conservative campaign powerhouses like the Koch Brothers and Grover Norquist and members of Congress like Cliff Stearns, Daryl Issa and Fred Upton have already been gearing up public attacks on clean energy as a proxy for the administration. Solar and renewable energy policy will continue to face increasing scrutiny in the press as a result of election year politics.
By way of comparison, Bureau of labor statistics says - 79,500 Americans work in iron & steel manufacturing. 84,000 work in coal mining.
Note that these brands aren’t known for being particularly green – they’re cost-savers going solar because it benefits their bottom line.
For all its success, solar is still handicapped by rules, policies & regulations that are geared toward fossil generation. Contrary to popular opinion, there is no free energy market. Solar isn’t competing against alternative resources that stand on their own two feet. Government incentives and policies built our existing infrastructure – it’s time to use those tools to transform it again – but to one that’s cleaner, healthier, and more secure.
U.S. incentives for solar lag far behind spending on well-established, conventional energy resources. In fact the federal government has long chosen a role of investing public dollars in energy via tax credits, subsidies and other incentives.
Americans overwhelmingly support choosing the clean energy path rather than a business as usual approach to energy investment and development.