Official paper «Fundamentals of the Russian Federation's state policy in the Arctic for the period till 2020 and Beyond» (2008) establishes the following key features of the Arctic Region:
remoteness from the main industrial centers;
high resource consumption and the dependence of economic activities and livelihoods of the population from fuel supplies, food and essential goods from other Russia’s regions;
low stability of ecological systems and their dependence even from minor anthropogenic effects.
2. Russia’s policy towards
Arctic territories
Official paper «Fundamentals of the Russian Federation's state
policy in the Arctic for the period till 2020 and Beyond» (2008)
establishes the following key features of the Arctic Region
remoteness from the main industrial centers;
high resource consumption and the dependence of economic
activities and livelihoods of the population from fuel supplies,
food and essential goods from other Russia’s regions;
low stability of ecological systems and their dependence even
from minor anthropogenic effects.
3. Russia’s policy towards
Arctic territories
A comprehensive socio-economic
development of the Russian Arctic;
The development of science and
technology;
Creation of a modern information and
telecommunication infrastructure;
To ensure environmental safety;
International cooperation in the
Arctic;
Military security, defense and
protection of the state border of the
Russian Federation in the Arctic.
Priorities:
Official paper «The development strategy of the Russian
Arctic and national security for the period until 2020» (2013)
aims to fulfill earlier adopted state policy fundamentals
4. Putin's vision
Long-term savings account. The
Arctic is a key source of
resources for future generations.
It must be protected;
Arctic resources should have
alternative supply routes in the
context of the ongoing conflict
with the West;
The territorial integrity of Russia
is a key value.
NOTE: place of Arctic issues in the
political line is very flexible.
5. Putin's view background
Short-term occupation of the northern Russian ports during
the First World War and the Revolution (12 thousand soldiers
under British command were deployed in the Murmansk and
Arkhangelsk in 1918 and 1919 years);
Soviet experience in the centralized development of the
industrial potential of the Arctic territories (the most
successful projects were: Vorkuta, Norilsk and Novy Urengoy);
Controversial in terms of benefits agreement concluded by the
former president Medvedev with Norway over the waters and
shelf of the Barents Sea.
6. How Putin’s vision is provided
Militarization. Capacity of hard power (the return of Soviet power)
in the Arctic;
Isolationism. The policy of deterrence towards soft power of other
Arctic states. Restrictions on the activities of foreign NGOs and
associations of small nations;
Corporatism. Large corporations replace functions of the state (as
they were understood in the USSR) in the Arctic territories. Such
corporation as Rosneft and Novatek take on more and more
responsibilities in the development of the Arctic, instead they
receive more freedom of action in foreign and domestic markets.
7. For information. The separation of
the Barents Sea with Norway
Document: Agreement between the Russian Federation and the
Kingdom of Norway on Maritime Delimitation and Cooperation in
the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean. Date of ratification of the
Treaty: 15 September 2010
Result: According to the agreement the disputed territory was
divided equally between the parties, that is, Russia received 87.5
thousand km2.
Norway and Russia
finally settled the
question of the disputed
maritime areas of the
Barents Sea. The dispute
lasted for 40 years
9. Russian public opinion towards the
Agreement
PRO
The settlement of a large section of the
Norwegian-Russian maritime border (1,700
km);
This is a necessary part for the
implementation of the UN proposal of the
Russian Federation in 2001 to recognize the
Russian Arctic territories - 1 million 200
thousand square meters (around the
Lomonosov Ridge);
The territories that have been transferred to
Norway were originally controversial. Thus
was the settlement of the territorial conflict;
А moratorium on the development of oil and
gas deposits on the Arctic continental shelf
was removed, and Russia won the right to
develop hydrocarbon deposits in a previously
disputed territory;
The agreement guaranteed the absence of
rights of third countries on the production and
use of resources in the disputed territory.
Contra
60% of Russian fish catch is carried out in
areas that have departed Norway;
Ratification of the treaty will trigger other
powers to raise the territorial claims;
Ratification of the agreement will trigger
other powers to declare territorial claims;
Waiver of rights to the waters around
Spitsbergen;
In 2013, it was found that part of the
continental shelf departed to Norway is rich
with oil.
10. Extraction of oil and minerals
In the sphere of socio-economic
development policy aims at
expanding the resource base of
the Russian Arctic;
Arctic zone of the Russian
Federation is considered as a
strategic resource base of the
country's development in the
foreseeable future;
As for its further development,
the Russian Arctic will
increasingly be involved in
international cooperation.
11. Extraction of oil and minerals
Arctic economic development was
hit by the sanctions
Under sanctions, for example,
Exxonmobil, which is actively
boosted exploration in the
Russian North has terminated its
relationship with the companies
"Gazprom", "Gazpromneft",
"Lukoil", "Surgutneftegas" and
"Rosneft“.
Biggest offshore project of
Gazprom – Shtokman field gas
field – was postponed.
12. Military security,
defense and protection
From official documents:
«ensure favorable operational
regime in the Russian Arctic
region, including the
maintenance of the required
combat potential of troops
(forces) general purpose of the
Armed Forces of the Russian
Federation, other troops, military
formations and agencies in the
region».
The military part of the strategy becomes more important for
now. But state resources are reduced.
13. Building modern infrastructure
Northern latitudinal
road and railway
Creating new Arctic
seaport (a priority
site - near city of
Murmansk). New
port has to maintain
ships with a
displacement of up
to 300 thousand
tons
Start of production
of a new series of
nuclear-powered
icebreakers called
«Siberia»
Widespread use of
concessions on the
model «Build –
Transfer – Operate»
14. The development of the Northern
Sea Route (NSR)
According to official paper
«Fundamentals of the Russian
Federation's state policy in the
Arctic for the period till 2020 and
Beyond» (2008) Northern Sea
Route is not mentioned as a clear
aim, only as a national priority.
«…assisting in the organization
and effective use of transit and
cross-polar air routes in the Arctic,
as well as in the use of the
Northern Sea Route for
international shipping under the
jurisdiction of the Russian
Federation and in accordance with
international treaties of the
Russian Federation».
15. The development of the Northern
Sea Route (NSR)
Administration of the Northern Sea
Route was recreated in March
of 2013 in order to organize the
navigation of vessels, to
ensure the safety of
navigation and protection of the
marine environment from
pollution from ships in the waters
of the NSR.
16. Northern Sea Route Transit cargo
According to experts, the fall in traffic is due to several factors:
the decline in the profitability of oil production in the Arctic at
the fall in oil prices, Western sanctions and doubts about the
financial capabilities of Russia to operate the SMP.
The volume of
transit cargo
2013 2014 2015
1180 000 tons
(other sources:
1 355 897 tons)
274 000 tons 39 000 tons
17. Northern Sea Route Total cargo
The bulk of the traffic along the Northern Sea Route (up to 85-
90%) now constitute the "Northern delivery", delivery of oil and
gas resources of the Arctic and inter-port cabotage.
2014 2015
3 982 000 tons 5 431 700 tons
Source of data: https://fedstat.ru/indicator/51479
18. The development of the Northern
Sea Route (NSR)
Infrastructural development of the
NSR is scheduled for a public-
private partnership.
The primary users the Northern
Sea Route in Russia today are the
"Norilsk Nickel", "Gazprom",
"Lukoil", "Rosneft", "ROSSHELF".
Potentially - "Novatek» (Yamal
LNG).
The aggregate throughput
capacity of port facilities along the
Northern Sea Route is planned to
more than double in the next 7-10
years.
19. The development of the Northern
Sea Route (NSR)
There is no doubt that the Northern
Sea Route will be used for transit:
a seasonal alternative to the Suez
Canal;
focus on exclusively raw materials
(this is what we extract ourselves
from ourselves and are taking to
the east);
all plans for the containers
shipping are on the horizon in
2025.
For more information please use
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2655113
20. The Northern Sea Route and
international law
Most interested in the use of the Northern Sea Route foreign
states in favor of giving it an international status and for
removal from the national jurisdiction of Russia. They want The
Northern Sea Route to be opened to free navigation. The United
States, in particular, insist on the principle of free navigation,
historically regarded as an essential component of their national
marine strategy.
22. The ecological themes
In May 2015 the International
Maritime Organization (The UN)
has completed work on the
Polar Code, which will come
into force in 2017. It will tighten
the requirements for vessels
operated in the Arctic, ban the
discharge of oil and petroleum
products into the sea, restrict
other harmful emissions marine
environment. According to
specialists, this is only the
beginning for the elimination of
legal collisions in maritime law
and its improvement with regard
to swimming in the Arctic
waters.
Climate change. Will it
bring more opportunities
for the Arctic? Will it
harm the Arctic?
Russia has to find it’s
balance between
economic development
and environment
protection.
23. Social protection
and demographic policy
The Russian Federation is aimed at improving the quality of life
of the indigenous population and social conditions of economic
activities in the Arctic.
26. Crimea question
Approval of Crimea decision in Russia
WCIOM. February 2015:
Poll Question. Reunification with Crimea
is for better for Russia?
Yes (all population) – 69%
Yes (Moscow and Saint-Petersburg) –
82%
27. Number of people who support
reunification — 90%
Number of people against
reunification — 5%
Number of Crimean tatars only
who support reunification – 49%
Number of Crimean tatars only
against reunification – 25%
Approval of reunification in Crimea
Number of people who support
reunification — 93%
Number of people against
reunification — 4%
WCIOM
Sociological sample – 1600
Total population – 2,5 million
February 2015:
GfK Ukraine.
Research project Free Crimea
January-February 2015:
28. Russia and Ukraine
How do Russians get knowledge about
Ukraine?
Mass media;
Relatives (for about 30% of Russian
families have relatives in the Ukraine);
Refuges (approximately 1 million all
over the country) and migrants.
29. Turning point
Turning point in the attitude of common Russians to the Ukrainian
revolutionary or coup events - Odessa tragedy May 2, 2014, when more
than 40 people were burned to death. No one has been punished.
31. Speech by Obama
State of the Union Address 2015:
«Russia is isolated, with its economy in
tatters»
CNN interview 1 February 2015:
«And since Mr. Putin made this decision
around Crimea and Ukraine, not because
of some grand strategy, but essentially
because he was caught off balance by the
protests in the Maidan, and Yanukovych
then fleeing after we'd brokered a deal to
transition power in Ukraine. Since that
time this improvisation that he's been
doing has getting - has gotten him deeper
and deeper into a situation that is a
violation of international law»
32. Speech by Obama in Address to the United Nations General Assembly,
September 2014
«And yet there is a pervasive unease in our world -- a sense that the very
forces that have brought us together have created new dangers and made
it difficult for any single nation to insulate itself from global forces. As we
gather here, an outbreak of Ebola overwhelms public health systems in
West Africa and threatens to move rapidly across borders. Russian
aggression in Europe recalls the days when large nations trampled small
ones in pursuit of territorial ambition. The brutality of terrorists in Syria
and Iraq forces us to look into the heart of darkness».
How it was understood in Russia?
Russia – is a threat №2 to the world (in between Ebola and ISIS)
Speech by Obama
33. Impact of sanctions
About an impact of sanctions and
counter-sanctions on Russian economy:
Few industries won (agriculture,
metallurgy, oil and gas);
Crisis now is less formidable than in
1998 and 2009;
An unemployment level is the lowest
in the history.
34. Attitude towards the US
FOM (Last - February 2016)
Blue line – no matter
Red line – negative
Green line - positive
37. Data: Russian Public Opinion Research
Center (VCIOM) unless otherwise specified
Approval rating
(May 2016)
Approval index
(May 2016)
Electoral rating
by FOM
President V. Putin 56.7% 53 67%
Prime Minister D.
Medvedev
11.1% 2 n/a
38. Data: Russian Public Opinion Research
Center (VCIOM) unless otherwise specified
Approval rating (May
2016)
Approval index
(May 2016)
Domestic
economic policy
25 10
Domestic social policy 26 10
Foreign policy 55 56
Overall perception of
policy
43 56
39. Data: Russian Public Opinion Research
Center (VCIOM) unless otherwise specified
Electoral rating
(May 2016)
Electoral rating
(May 2016) by FOM
United Russia
political party
49% 48%
42. Myths about Putin and Russia
Myth 1. Putin is a dictator
In reality he is very attentive to
public opinion.
43. Myths about Putin and Russia
Myth 2. Putin is a Russian
nationalist
In reality he is a successor of
Soviet national policy and checks
and balances style.
44. Myths about Putin and Russia
Myth 3. Putin is an anti-western
politician
In reality he thinks about himself
as a most pro-western politician
in all the Russian history.
45. Myths about Putin and Russia
Myth 4. After Crimea Russian-
western relations changed
dramatically and it was a decision
point
In reality the decision to be ready
for the conflict was made by
Putin's Politburo much earlier - in
2012.
46. Myths about Putin and Russia
Myth 5. Putin is a businessman
and his inner circle is as well
In reality Putin is a true believer.
He thinks about values and his
place in the history.
His imperative - to keep Russia
safe.
48. PR-agency «New Image». Since 1993
International Institute for Political
Expertise (IIPE). Since 2003
Government Relations agency
«Minchenko GR Consulting». Since
2007
Companies of the holding:
Communication Group
«Minchenko Consulting»
49. Our projects geography
Belarus;
Georgia;
European Union;
Kazakhstan;
Kyrgyzstan;
Moldova;
USA;
Uzbekistan;
Ukraine;
Turkmenistan;
Regions of Russian Federation: Republic of Bashkortostan, Sakha, Tatarstan,
Udmurtia, Khakassia, Krasnoyarsk, Perm, Primorye, Amur, Arkhangelsk,
Volgograd, Irkutsk, Kirov, Kurgan, Leningrad, Magadan, Moscow, Novgorod,
Orenburg, Pskov, Samara, Sverdlovsk, Tver, Tyumen, Nizhni Novgorod,
Chelyabinsk , the Yamal- Nenets autonomous region, the Chukotka autonomous
region, the Khanty-Mansi autonomous region, Saint-Petersburg and Moscow..
Communication Group
«Minchenko Consulting»
50. 21 years in the market
of political consultation
Work experience in
various countries and
regions
More than 200
successful election
campaigns
Experience in
creating political
projects "from
scratch”
Author's technology
"political campaigns
scenario programming"
Communication Group
«Minchenko Consulting»
51. Board member of Russian Association of political consultants. Member of IAPC (International
Association of Political Consultants).
Rated TOP-10 & TOP-20 among Russian political consultants (according to “Vedomosti” newspaper
& “Obsсhaya Gazeta”).
First place for Minchenko consulting in the rank of major players in Russian political consulting
(according to “Kompaniya” magazine, 2011).
First place in popularity among political analysts rated by Russian journalists (survey of Znak.com,
2013).
Moscow State University, Faculty of World Politics, Lecturer.
Author of 2 books.
Evgeny Minchenko
Political analyst. Consultant. Lobbyist.
Graduate of Chelyabinsk State University in History
(1993), Russian Academy of State Service in Political
Psychology (1997).
In 1993 began career as a political consultant.
2004-2011 - advisor to the Chairman of State Duma
Anti-Corruption Committee, expert of Security and CIS
Countries Committees;
Since 2010 to 2012 - member of Public Council in the
Ministry of Industry and Trade and Expert Council of the
Ministry of Economic Development. Since 2014 -
member of Public Council in the Ministry of Energy.
52. MINCHENKO CONSULTING Communication Group
38, Bolshoy Tishinsky lane, office 730, 123557, Moscow, Russia
Phone: +7 (495) 605-3681 Fax: +7 (495) 605-3680
office@minchenko.ru
www.minchenko.ru
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