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ROI Attribution at Vistaprint
Dan Malone
Senior Director, Marketing

April 26, 2012
Overview
    Spend
    Spend         Acquire
                   Acquire                 Predict
                                           Predict                        Evaluate
                                                                          Evaluate



                                                                           NPV

• Buy media     • Acquire           • Predict                           • Calculate
  and run ads     new                 each                                Net Present
• Track           customers           customer’s                          Value
  everything    • Attribute           5-year                            • If positive,
  you can         them to             value based                         continue and
                  media               on their first                      seek to
                  placements          order                               scale



                               Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011      4/26/2012   2
Our Attribution model differs by
channel

      Online Display                         Print


                   Centrally
                  Integrated


           TV                             Search



                       Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011   4/26/2012   3
How we measure Online Display
                                   Exposed                           Non-Exposed




The ad served
Total impressions                    10,000                            10,000
Total orders                           100                               60
Incremental orders                100 - 60 = 40
Orders via click-through               10
Attribution Multiplier            40 ÷ 10 = 4x

        Assumes Incremental Orders is proportional to Click-through Orders

                                       Company Confidential © 2009         4/26/2012   4
How we measure TV’s impact




       Direct
                 Halo
      Type-In                                     Total Lift
                Multiplier
        Lift


                    Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011     4/26/2012   5
TV – First measure the lift on
“Direct Type-In” and Branded Search




                 Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011   4/26/2012   6
TV – We used our local market test
results to estimate halo impact

                   Low         Mean            High




                         Halo Multiplier

                 Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011   4/26/2012   7
Principles to follow
• Accuracy over precision

• Be flexible (but also wary of complexity)

• Continually revise and improve




                             Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011   4/26/2012   8
Thank you…
and we’re hiring!

    Dan Malone
danm@vistaprint.com

         Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011   4/26/2012   9

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ROI Attribution at Vistaprint

  • 1. ROI Attribution at Vistaprint Dan Malone Senior Director, Marketing April 26, 2012
  • 2. Overview Spend Spend Acquire Acquire Predict Predict Evaluate Evaluate NPV • Buy media • Acquire • Predict • Calculate and run ads new each Net Present • Track customers customer’s Value everything • Attribute 5-year • If positive, you can them to value based continue and media on their first seek to placements order scale Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011 4/26/2012 2
  • 3. Our Attribution model differs by channel Online Display Print Centrally Integrated TV Search Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011 4/26/2012 3
  • 4. How we measure Online Display Exposed Non-Exposed The ad served Total impressions 10,000 10,000 Total orders 100 60 Incremental orders 100 - 60 = 40 Orders via click-through 10 Attribution Multiplier 40 ÷ 10 = 4x Assumes Incremental Orders is proportional to Click-through Orders Company Confidential © 2009 4/26/2012 4
  • 5. How we measure TV’s impact Direct Halo Type-In Total Lift Multiplier Lift Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011 4/26/2012 5
  • 6. TV – First measure the lift on “Direct Type-In” and Branded Search Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011 4/26/2012 6
  • 7. TV – We used our local market test results to estimate halo impact Low Mean High Halo Multiplier Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011 4/26/2012 7
  • 8. Principles to follow • Accuracy over precision • Be flexible (but also wary of complexity) • Continually revise and improve Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011 4/26/2012 8
  • 9. Thank you… and we’re hiring! Dan Malone danm@vistaprint.com Company Confidential Vistaprint © 2011 4/26/2012 9

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Opening - For every dollar we spend on advertising, what’s the true return we’re getting back - Quick overview - Channel-specific challenges -Online Display -TelevisionOverview - Quick overview of our end-to-end process - Let’s focus on Attribution pieceChannels - Each channel has unique challenges - Integrate in a way that doesn’t double-count credit for acquiring a customerDisplay - We never did Display because it looked like our tests never paid back, but we realized we weren’t measuring it right - We decided on a hold-out group approach—show VP ads to some users; PSAs to others - We saw that the non-exposed group still placed orders, because they’re hearing about Vistaprint from other sources - Incremental orders – This is great! We have a clear causal relationship. Spent this, got this back. But this hold-out methodology is complex and expensive. - One thing that’s easy to track is how many orders we got from people who clicked the ad, so we looked at the ratio between that and Incremental Orders, and called that our Attribution Multiplier - There are some dangers with using this approach. We’ve found that different types of placements and different types of offers can impact the ratio. But on the whole, it’s relatively easy to do, and it gives a fairly accurate picture of an ad placement’s performance.TV - We’re an online pure play, and our marketing had always been purely digital. TV presented new measurement challenges. - We drove people right to vistaprint.com. We call that traffic “direct type-in”. That’s where we expected the majority of the impact to hit, but we also wanted to measure the halo effect on the rest of our channels. - To measure the lift on our Direct Type-in and Branded Search channels, we first developed a baseline using an ARIMA time-series model. - That’s actually the most difficult part of this step, because once you have that, you simply look at where Actuals come in, and the delta is your lift. - This works really well when your marketing activity has a big impact, which we had here. The trailing part of the campaign can be trickier, as the impact fades. Something we’ve tried to look at in other ways. - Now for Halo effect. Before our national TV campaign, we had run local market tests. From these we could measure overall lift in the market, as well as lift in the Direct Type-in channel. So we looked at that ratio for all our tests, and used that to help estimate halo effect for our national campaign.Questions - What’s the biggest mistake you’ve made in developing your attribution model? - What’s your best piece of advice for someone building an attribution model? - How did you gain buy-in from the organization to adopt the attribution model?